FB: Region 3 fan poll

[jknezek]

Good post.  I wonder if SRSU can keep up their momentum. The program has not had consecutive years to build a winning attitude that mature programs have in a long long time.  I wonder if Carson and Springer can carry this team on their shoulders for the rest of the season.  Right now, your projection has HSU losing to the #2, #3, #20 and #RV26.  That is a murderers' row.  For the sake of the South Region top 10, which of the teams in the Top 10 go at least 1-3 against UMHB, LaCollege, Linfield and Willamette?  You almost make the case for comparing HSU head-to-head against those SR Top 10 teams who cannot beat those 4 teams.

I'm not very strong on the West. The South and the East are more my areas of interest. And yes, HSU plays a tough schedule. So did LC, UMHB, Wesley, B-SC, and Huntingdon just off the top of my head. I give them credit. But I don't deal as much in the hypothetical and the what ifs. I deal more in the "what happened". I don't think much about whether LC could beat W&L (yes), or if W&L could beat HSU (don't know, would like to see the game). It's just too hard with too few legitimate data points to work with. Similarly I don't ask if Waynesberg could beat W&L (I don't think so, but would like to see it as well) for the same reason. But I have Waynesberg ranked higher than W&L because they are undefeated and W&L flubbed the first game of the season.

When I look at teams, I look at what they have done, and I give a priority to winning. We all do, or we wouldn't have Waynesberg anywhere near as high as they are. They have played no one, and barely beat who they have played. Not a single team on their schedule is over .500, only 3 of them are .500, and the combined records of their opponents this year is a sad 13-30 at a quick glance. To add insult to injury, only two of their wins are by more than 2 possessions, and they beat one 2-5 team by only 1 point. But they beat everyone in front of them, are leading a traditionally good conference in a down year, and are ranked 6th by us.

We are handicapped in what we do by a lack of provable data. So I applaud you for thinking outside the box in putting a 3-3 SRSU forward for top 10. It's certainly plausible, and can be supported, but I don't find it at all surprising that the rest of the voters look at it and struggle with the logic. After all, they have only won half the time they step onto the field. That won't even get you into the bloated NFL playoffs most years, let alone anywhere near our 32 team field!

And yes, until this weekend, I actually think HSU has as good a case for top 10 inclusion as SRSU. I just wouldn't vote for either of them as things sit right now.

[Ralph Turner]

What can help Huntingdon is for Adrain to sneak in the bottom of the North Region Rankings (probably as an undefeated MIAA champion.)  Adrian is in-region for Huntingdon.

[ExTartanPlayer]

What can help Huntingdon is for Adrain to sneak in the bottom of the North Region Rankings (probably as an undefeated MIAA champion.)  Adrian is in-region for Huntingdon.

REALLY?

According to this website, Adrian is in the North and Huntingdon is in the South.  I know that there's an exception for being within a certain distance, which I thought was 200 miles...it's gotta be something like 700 miles from Michigan to Alabama.  What am I missing here?

I know they still get credit for a win over an RR team if Adrian sneaks into the bottom of the North rankings, I'm just trying to figure out how this as an "in-region" game?

[jknezek]

What can help Huntingdon is for Adrain to sneak in the bottom of the North Region Rankings (probably as an undefeated MIAA champion.)  Adrian is in-region for Huntingdon.

REALLY?

According to this website, Adrian is in the North and Huntingdon is in the South.  I know that there's an exception for being within a certain distance, which I thought was 200 miles...it's gotta be something like 700 miles from Michigan to Alabama.  What am I missing here?

I know they still get credit for a win over an RR team if Adrian sneaks into the bottom of the North rankings, I'm just trying to figure out how this as an "in-region" game?

Ex you forgot about "administrative regions". Region 3 is as follows according the FAQ on the d3football site:
Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia.

Michigan and Alabama are in-region games. And the schools are 791 miles apart according to the NCAA travel site!

[roocru]

After watching the UMHB/HSU game today, I am perplexed what to do with HSU.  They are very strong offensively (IMHO on par or better than LC and Wesley)  but defense is definitely weaker.   Do I think they are better than some of the top 10 in the previous region polls, absolutely.  BUT, how do you place a 4-3 team higher (even though they have lost to the #2, #3 and #22 teams.  If they play out like they played today they could very possibly end up runner-ups in the ASC!  I must ponder on this one! 

[Ralph Turner]

After watching the UMHB/HSU game today, I am perplexed what to do with HSU.  They are very strong offensively (IMHO on par or better than LC and Wesley)  but defense is definitely weaker.   Do I think they are better than some of the top 10 in the previous region polls, absolutely.  BUT, how do you place a 4-3 team higher (even though they have lost to the #2, #3 and #22 teams.  If they play out like they played today they could very possibly end up runner-ups in the ASC!  I must ponder on this one! 

Who would have fared better against those teams in the Top 10?

[jknezek]

After watching the UMHB/HSU game today, I am perplexed what to do with HSU.  They are very strong offensively (IMHO on par or better than LC and Wesley)  but defense is definitely weaker.   Do I think they are better than some of the top 10 in the previous region polls, absolutely.  BUT, how do you place a 4-3 team higher (even though they have lost to the #2, #3 and #22 teams.  If they play out like they played today they could very possibly end up runner-ups in the ASC!  I must ponder on this one! 

Who would have fared better against those teams in the Top 10?

I moved them in. Everyone in the bottom half of my poll laid a turd today. Therefore HSU, with a "good" loss, gets a spot in the top 10.

[Ralph Turner]

LC stepped up their game and shut down SRSU (as jknezek anticipated). 

HSU hung with them on the road.  (Am I imagining things or is the stadium at Belton one of the most "wind-susceptible" in the conference?  It seems that the stadium has a wind funneling effect!)

The Top half of the poll still looks solid. I have to figure out the bottom half tomorrow.

[roocru]

After watching the UMHB/HSU game today, I am perplexed what to do with HSU.  They are very strong offensively (IMHO on par or better than LC and Wesley)  but defense is definitely weaker.   Do I think they are better than some of the top 10 in the previous region polls, absolutely.  BUT, how do you place a 4-3 team higher (even though they have lost to the #2, #3 and #22 teams.  If they play out like they played today they could very possibly end up runner-ups in the ASC!  I must ponder on this one! 

Who would have fared better against those teams in the Top 10?

Referring to HSU.

[Ralph Turner]

Waiting on 1 ballot. Thru 4 ballots, we have a consensus of 8 teams and 6 others that got votes.

[Toby Taff]

Waiting on 1 ballot. Thru 4 ballots, we have a consensus of 8 teams and 6 others that got votes.

Sorry Ralph its been crazy. you'll have it this afternoon

[Ralph Turner]

Waiting on 1 ballot. Thru 4 ballots, we have a consensus of 8 teams and 6 others that got votes.

Sorry Ralph its been crazy. you'll have it this afternoon

Not trying to call you out.     I just wanted to sustain the fan interest.   

We cannot decide who deserves to be in the bottom half of the poll.


I got the PM. Thanks. We have 8 consensus teams and 6 others getting votes.

(I will post the poll tonight.  I like the poll. I think that it reflects the opinions on the fans of the region.  I think that every ballot reflects the question, can this team beat the teams below it?  Will this team lose to the teams above it?)

[jknezek]

Waiting on 1 ballot. Thru 4 ballots, we have a consensus of 8 teams and 6 others that got votes.

Sorry Ralph its been crazy. you'll have it this afternoon

Not trying to call you out.     I just wanted to pique the fan interest.   

We cannot decide who deserves to be in the bottom half of the poll.

I'm not sure it is so much "deserves" as "defaults" these days. Teams just can't seem to put it together.

[Ralph Turner]

Waiting on 1 ballot. Thru 4 ballots, we have a consensus of 8 teams and 6 others that got votes.

Sorry Ralph its been crazy. you'll have it this afternoon

Not trying to call you out.     I just wanted to pique the fan interest.   

We cannot decide who deserves to be in the bottom half of the poll.

I'm not sure it is so much "deserves" as "defaults" these days. Teams just can't seem to put it together.

Exactly!

[Ralph Turner]

Week #8 South Region Fan Poll

1)  UMHB  (5)	50	1,1,1,1,1
2)  Wesley	45	2,2,2,2,2
3)  JHU	39	3,3,3,3,4
4)  LaCollege	32	3,4,4,5,7
5)  Huntingdon	31	4,4,5,5,6
.	.	.	.
6)  Waynesburg	24	5,6,6,6,8
7)  Millsaps	19	6,7,7,7,9
8)  Hardin-Simmons	17	5,7,8,9,9
9)  Muhlenberg	7	8,8,10,x,x
10) Centre	5	9,9,10,x,x
.	.	.	.
RV)  Franklin & Marshall	3	8,x,x,x,x
RV)  Carnegie-Mellon	1	10,x,x,x,x
RV)   Hampden-Sydney	1	10,x,x,x,x
RV)   Wash & Jeff	1	10,x,x,x,x