FB: Region 3 fan poll

[ExTartanPlayer]

I did some checking, and please correct me if I am incorrect:

1) UMHB          6-0  sos = 43
2) JHU             6-0  sos = 90
3) Millsaps      6-0  sos = 34
4) Wesley       5-2  sos = 2
5) Tex Luth     5-0  sos = 219
6) Ham Syd     5-1  sos = 77
7) LaColl          4-2  sos = 81
8) Maryville      6-1  sos = 119
9) Randy Mac   5-1  sos = 22
10) Th Moore   5-1  sos = 110

Wash U            4-2  sos = 6
Rhodes             5-1  sos = 144
Lagrange          3-3  sos = 91

CENTRE             5-1   sos = 61

As I stated above if I have a mistake I do apologize.  I cannot understand why Centre is not receiving any votes. I am not sure what guidelines are used by the voters but based on overall record and strength of schedule I believe Centre has earned some votes.  They have been mentioned as "key games" so I can tell they are on the map.

Centre also lost to WashU and has yet to play Rhodes and Millsaps. Win those and they'll be in. For now, IMO there's no way you rank centre without rankin WashU first. Rhodes also took WashU to OT while Centre did not.

[Ralph Turner]

Welcome Just A Guy. Thanks for the comment.

Centre is about #3 on my list for love towards the SAA.  I am not impressed with the teams that they have beaten.. even though the SOS is #60.  In fact, UAA member WashU is ahead of them because of the Bears' win.

(An ExTartan posted the same sentiments in his 1000th post...  +1!)   

[Just A Guy]

I did some checking, and please correct me if I am incorrect:

1) UMHB          6-0  sos = 43
2) JHU             6-0  sos = 90
3) Millsaps      6-0  sos = 34
4) Wesley       5-2  sos = 2
5) Tex Luth     5-0  sos = 219
6) Ham Syd     5-1  sos = 77
7) LaColl          4-2  sos = 81
8) Maryville      6-1  sos = 119
9) Randy Mac   5-1  sos = 22
10) Th Moore   5-1  sos = 110

Wash U            4-2  sos = 6
Rhodes             5-1  sos = 144
Lagrange          3-3  sos = 91

CENTRE             5-1   sos = 61

As I stated above if I have a mistake I do apologize.  I cannot understand why Centre is not receiving any votes. I am not sure what guidelines are used by the voters but based on overall record and strength of schedule I believe Centre has earned some votes.  They have been mentioned as "key games" so I can tell they are on the map.

Centre also lost to WashU and has yet to play Rhodes and Millsaps. Win those and they'll be in. For now, IMO there's no way you rank centre without rankin WashU first. Rhodes also took WashU to OT while Centre did not.

I completely agree about ranking Wash U,  but to say that Centre will have to be 8 and 1 before they get any "love."   I would expect if they are able to win both those games they are in the Top 25.

[Ralph Turner]

I did some checking, and please correct me if I am incorrect:

1) UMHB          6-0  sos = 43                           ASC
2) JHU             6-0  sos = 90                           Centennial
3) Millsaps      6-0  sos = 34                             SAA
4) Wesley       5-2  sos = 2                              Independent
5) Tex Luth     5-0  sos = 219                           SCAC
6) Ham Syd     5-1  sos = 77                            ODAC
7) LaColl          4-2  sos = 81                           ASC #2
8) Maryville      6-1  sos = 119                         USA South
9) Randy Mac   5-1  sos = 22                           ODAC #2
10) Th Moore   5-1  sos = 110                          Pres AC

Wash U            4-2  sos = 6                              UAA
Rhodes             5-1  sos = 144                          SAA #2
Lagrange          3-3  sos = 91                            USA South #2

CENTRE             5-1   sos = 61

As I stated above if I have a mistake I do apologize.  I cannot understand why Centre is not receiving any votes. I am not sure what guidelines are used by the voters but based on overall record and strength of schedule I believe Centre has earned some votes.  They have been mentioned as "key games" so I can tell they are on the map.

Centre also lost to WashU and has yet to play Rhodes and Millsaps. Win those and they'll be in. For now, IMO there's no way you rank centre without rankin WashU first. Rhodes also took WashU to OT while Centre did not.

I completely agree about ranking Wash U,  but to say that Centre will have to be 8 and 1 before they get any "love."   I would expect if they are able to win both those games they are in the Top 25.

Beating Rhodes will transfer the SAA love to Centre.   

[ExTartanPlayer]

I did some checking, and please correct me if I am incorrect:

1) UMHB          6-0  sos = 43
2) JHU             6-0  sos = 90
3) Millsaps      6-0  sos = 34
4) Wesley       5-2  sos = 2
5) Tex Luth     5-0  sos = 219
6) Ham Syd     5-1  sos = 77
7) LaColl          4-2  sos = 81
8) Maryville      6-1  sos = 119
9) Randy Mac   5-1  sos = 22
10) Th Moore   5-1  sos = 110

Wash U            4-2  sos = 6
Rhodes             5-1  sos = 144
Lagrange          3-3  sos = 91

CENTRE             5-1   sos = 61

As I stated above if I have a mistake I do apologize.  I cannot understand why Centre is not receiving any votes. I am not sure what guidelines are used by the voters but based on overall record and strength of schedule I believe Centre has earned some votes.  They have been mentioned as "key games" so I can tell they are on the map.

Centre also lost to WashU and has yet to play Rhodes and Millsaps. Win those and they'll be in. For now, IMO there's no way you rank centre without rankin WashU first. Rhodes also took WashU to OT while Centre did not.

I completely agree about ranking Wash U,  but to say that Centre will have to be 8 and 1 before they get any "love."   I would expect if they are able to win both those games they are in the Top 25.

I think you underrate how hard it is to crack the D3 top 25.  Badly.  Remember that D3 has about twice the number of teams that D1 does, so it's proportionally harder to crack the top 25.  Even if Centre does reach 8-1 by beating Millsaps and Rhodes, that is hardly a guarantee; neither of THOSE teams are currently in the top 25.  Look at the caliber of teams at the bottom of the top 25. Don't just look at their records, either, but look at their conferences and the playoff history of said conferences.

To add to this: who exactly are you putting them ahead of in this poll, today? Which of the current top 10 can you make a case that they're better than besides "they are 5-1 and their SOS is higher"?

Ralph, thanks for the +K. Long way to go to catch you!

[jknezek]

I'm the Wash U voter at 6 and Rhodes at 7, so I'm the most likely voter for Centre right now. I have La Col at 8, HSC at 9 and RMC at 10. I'll give you an idea of how I pieced that together. Rhodes played Wash U better than Centre. Common opponent doesn't tell us everything, but in this case, it gave me enough to choose Rhodes over Centre. Especially since both games were at Wash U and Rhodes was close, while Centre lost by 17. The factors are good enough to make a case for Rhodes.

So that means Centre has to be behind those two teams. Are they better than my bottom 3? LC plays in, generally, the hardest conference in the South. I saw them play live at Huntingdon, conveniently missing the W&L at Centre game. In my opinion, LC wins a game between them based on watching LC and having a good feel for the Generals through other games. If Centre worked that hard to get past W&L, they would struggle with LC in my opinion. I feel more confident in that statement having watched LC play UMHB tight-ish at UMHB, something no one else has done this year, including Wesley. That drops me to HSC. At this point in time, I think HSC is the best team in the ODAC, that becomes real important for my rankings because I have RMC right behind them.

Why RMC instead of Centre? RMC beat W&L by about the same margin Centre beat W&L, both road games for the Generals. No help with that common opponent. So we move on to Bethany. RMC scored 3 more points on Bethany than Centre did. Bethany played at Centre and home for RMC. All things being equal betwen the teams, Bethany should have done better at home, but they didn't, marginally. The implication is that RMC is marginally better. Finally, I have two SAA teams in my poll already. I don't think, when all is said and done, that conference is almost 1/3 of the South top 10. If Centre beats Rhodes, I'll move them in and Rhodes out. If Centre loses, then I had it right to begin with.

In reality, that 10th spot could easily be RMC, Centre, Maryville, or TMC. When you get to those 8/9/10 spots, it's really gut feeling time. It's not just that you think Centre "could" belong. At this point lots of teams "could" belong, it's also a matter of who else you are going to drop out in favor of that team.

[ExTartanPlayer]

jknezek covers it very well.  All of the other candidates in the poll are at least as deserving, if not more so, or have a piece of evidence that differentiates them from Centre - for now.  As we've said, if they beat Rhodes and Millsaps, they'll be in.  For now, despite what their SOS says, I look at the schedule and see a loss to a good-but-not-great WashU (a team that is not ranked in this poll, by the way, although I'm a big UAA fan and think WashU will get a Pool B berth if they win out), and five "nice" wins but none that stands out as "yep, they should be ranked!"

jknezek, I understand why you're so bullish on WashU although the rest of the pollsters are slow to come around.  They've got two losses to teams outside this region and I'm not sure everyone else knows what to make of them; but those two losses are both 10-point, competitive-til-the-end road losses against an undefeated UWW team that appears to be back to its former beastmode (look how badly they've crushed everyone since WashU - the closest game since is a 41-point win) and defending IIAC champion Coe, who spent the first six weeks in the Top 25 before this week's upset loss to Dubuque.  WashU is really, really good (and I don't like to go after specific players, but they're held back a little by some struggles at QB - admittedly I haven't seen much of them first hand this year, so I can't tell if it's just him or the whole offense that struggles).  Their defense has kept everyone but Hendrix well below season averages, and Hendrix has scored on everyone they've played.  I'm a CMU fan, but admittedly part of me wants WashU to run the table because I think they might be able to win a first-round playoff game if they get the right matchup, and the UAA hasn't gotten a playoff berth since the CMU/CWRU run from 2006-2009.

*Edited to add:  Sorry for the late addition, but Keith posted a column this morning with one quite particularly salient here:

http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2013/poll-positions-week-7

To paraphrase - "Do you just want to see your team ranked in the Top 25, or would you rather have your team be good enough to be in the Top 25?"

Same thing applies here with Centre.  If they're good enough to be ranked, they'll get there eventually by virtue of wins over Millsaps/Rhodes.  If they don't win both of those games, we're basically just sniping over whether they should make a brief appearance here today before losing those games.

[jaybird44]

I think the early struggles that WashU experienced have been resolved largely by a shift in offensive philosophy after the loss to Coe.  In that game, the Bears had the ball for less than 15 minutes, due to an over-reliance on the pass.  There were far too many three-and-outs that were so brief, the defensive players probably found it tough to have enough time to get a cup of Gatorade before they were summoned back into the game.

If a team has a QB that completes well over 60% of his passes, then it can throw the ball frequently and move the chains.  To this point, WashU doesn't have that...so it needed to find a way after the Coe game to move the ball and have sustained drives to help the defense...after being dead last in D3 in time of possession.

To that end, the Bears have committed heavily to run the ball, and it has been very successful in doing so.  QB Eric Daginella is very quick, and has scrambled at times like Fran Tarkenton for big gains.  RB Zach Lonneman has been an able workhorse, and Cody Ratermann has been doubly punishing since being moved from LB to RB (he was a prep star at RB in Illinois) due to season-ending injuries to two of the top three RBs after Whitewater.  At times, WashU will use two TEs for more muscle...but they are also very good receivers, so teams can't flood the box without paying for it.

As a result, Daginella has been more effective throwing the ball with fewer attempts, the o-line is playing much better as a unit, and the Bears have improved about 100 spots on the time of possession rankings.  The defense gets more rest, and the team has won 3 in a row.

Still a lot of football to play...a long trip to Macalester this week, before a very exciting UAA slate commences in two weeks.  So, while a playoff spot is certainly a possibility, no one at WashU believes that it's anywhere near a foregone conclusion.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Thanks for chiming in with the specifics, jaybird.  I have been particularly bullish on WashU since the preseason, and nothing has changed that view in my mind.  As I noted above, that 17-7 loss to UWW is very impressive when one looks at what UWW has done since - they are the only team to hold UWW under 42 points (and they held them to 17!), even taking into account how some teams grow over a season, that is very impressive.  I think WashU is very dangerous, and your humility re: a playoff spot not being a foregone conclusion is necessary and admirable, but I think the Bears are a better team than people realize.  If Daginella has grown a bit thanks to the offensive changes you describe, I think they'll be a tough out for anyone save a few truly elite teams.

[Just A Guy]

jknezek covers it very well.  All of the other candidates in the poll are at least as deserving, if not more so, or have a piece of evidence that differentiates them from Centre - for now.  As we've said, if they beat Rhodes and Millsaps, they'll be in.  For now, despite what their SOS says, I look at the schedule and see a loss to a good-but-not-great WashU (a team that is not ranked in this poll, by the way, although I'm a big UAA fan and think WashU will get a Pool B berth if they win out), and five "nice" wins but none that stands out as "yep, they should be ranked!"

jknezek, I understand why you're so bullish on WashU although the rest of the pollsters are slow to come around.  They've got two losses to teams outside this region and I'm not sure everyone else knows what to make of them; but those two losses are both 10-point, competitive-til-the-end road losses against an undefeated UWW team that appears to be back to its former beastmode (look how badly they've crushed everyone since WashU - the closest game since is a 41-point win) and defending IIAC champion Coe, who spent the first six weeks in the Top 25 before this week's upset loss to Dubuque.  WashU is really, really good (and I don't like to go after specific players, but they're held back a little by some struggles at QB - admittedly I haven't seen much of them first hand this year, so I can't tell if it's just him or the whole offense that struggles).  Their defense has kept everyone but Hendrix well below season averages, and Hendrix has scored on everyone they've played.  I'm a CMU fan, but admittedly part of me wants WashU to run the table because I think they might be able to win a first-round playoff game if they get the right matchup, and the UAA hasn't gotten a playoff berth since the CMU/CWRU run from 2006-2009.

*Edited to add:  Sorry for the late addition, but Keith posted a column this morning with one quite particularly salient here:

http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-nation/2013/poll-positions-week-7

To paraphrase - "Do you just want to see your team ranked in the Top 25, or would you rather have your team be good enough to be in the Top 25?"

Same thing applies here with Centre.  If they're good enough to be ranked, they'll get there eventually by virtue of wins over Millsaps/Rhodes.  If they don't win both of those games, we're basically just sniping over whether they should make a brief appearance here today before losing those games.

GREAT post!!!!!

[Just A Guy]

Thanks to everyone for the comments and opinions about Centre and the Top 10.  As I mentioned before I wasn't sure what qualified a team to be in this poll, but it's obvious that overall record and sos are not the only factors.  I also understand that Centre is coming off a 6-4 season, but only one year removed from The Sweet16.  I will continue to cheer for my son and his Centre teammates and hopefully they can finish 9 and 1.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Thanks to everyone for the comments and opinions about Centre and the Top 10.  As I mentioned before I wasn't sure what qualified a team to be in this poll, but it's obvious that overall record and sos are not the only factors.  I also understand that Centre is coming off a 6-4 season, but only one year removed from The Sweet16.  I will continue to cheer for my son and his Centre teammates and hopefully they can finish 9 and 1.

Absolutely!  Overall record and SOS are useful tools, but we also have to make some qualitative judgments along the way as well; the SOS tool is nice but imperfect, and just because two teams have the same record and one has a higher SOS than the other doesn't necessarily mean that Team B has actually been more impressive than Team A, if that makes any sense.  Here's one cherry picked example: Mount Union is currently 6-0 with the 210th-ranked SOS in the country.  Greenville is 7-0 with the 199th-ranked SOS in the country.  No one in their right mind is picking Greenville over Mount Union.  Or to stay within 5 touchdowns of Mount Union, for that matter.  Since we have so little non-conference play in Division III, and 230+ teams, there just isn't enough data for those tools to be totally reliable.  The OAC is one of the nation's better conferences, but they only play one non-conference game, so all of their SOS numbers gravitate towards the middle by the end of the season although they've really played a pretty hard schedule.

Good luck to your son and his teammates - they have several big games to come!

[Just A Guy]

Thanks to everyone for the comments and opinions about Centre and the Top 10.  As I mentioned before I wasn't sure what qualified a team to be in this poll, but it's obvious that overall record and sos are not the only factors.  I also understand that Centre is coming off a 6-4 season, but only one year removed from The Sweet16.  I will continue to cheer for my son and his Centre teammates and hopefully they can finish 9 and 1.

Absolutely!  Overall record and SOS are useful tools, but we also have to make some qualitative judgments along the way as well; the SOS tool is nice but imperfect, and just because two teams have the same record and one has a higher SOS than the other doesn't necessarily mean that Team B has actually been more impressive than Team A, if that makes any sense.  Here's one cherry picked example: Mount Union is currently 6-0 with the 210th-ranked SOS in the country.  Greenville is 7-0 with the 199th-ranked SOS in the country.  No one in their right mind is picking Greenville over Mount Union.  Or to stay within 5 touchdowns of Mount Union, for that matter.  Since we have so little non-conference play in Division III, and 230+ teams, there just isn't enough data for those tools to be totally reliable.  The OAC is one of the nation's better conferences, but they only play one non-conference game, so all of their SOS numbers gravitate towards the middle by the end of the season although they've really played a pretty hard schedule.

Good luck to your son and his teammates - they have several big games to come!

Thanks again!

[jaybird44]

ExTP, thanks for the compliments regarding the Bears.  I am cautiously optimistic about their chances, but I have a feeling that each UAA game will be up for grabs...and a rash of turnovers/mistakes/chances left unclaimed can end conference and playoff hopes very quickly.

Can't wait to get the UAA slate started!

[ExTartanPlayer]

ExTP, thanks for the compliments regarding the Bears.  I am cautiously optimistic about their chances, but I have a feeling that each UAA game will be up for grabs...and a rash of turnovers/mistakes/chances left unclaimed can end conference and playoff hopes very quickly.

Can't wait to get the UAA slate started!

Agreed.  I'm not sure how long you've been a UAA fan (could well be longer than me), but if there's one thing that really shocked me as a college player, it was how unpredictable conference games could be.  Even in seasons when there was a clear-cut "best" team from OOC play, that team often had to really battle to win the conference games (my 2006 CMU went undefeated and needed OT to beat WashU; 2007 CWRU went undefeated and needed OT to beat us; 2011 Case went 9-1 and barely beat Chicago, 6-0).  There's something about the familiarity of conference opponents that seems to tighten every game.