FB: Region 3 fan poll

[Scots13]

A TMC/CWRU game would help iron everything out, that's for sure.

Definitely.

I'd prefer that too... though, selfishly so the Saints don't have to share the PAC Title with anyone else.

What is the PAC tie breaker? I'm assuming overall record?

[ADL70]

Maybe the committee will create a defacto PAC championship game, but long way for that 'chicken' to hatch.

[ExTartanPlayer]

A TMC/CWRU game would help iron everything out, that's for sure.

Definitely.

I'd prefer that too... though, selfishly so the Saints don't have to share the PAC Title with anyone else.

What is the PAC tie breaker? I'm assuming overall record?

Discussed a couple times on the PAC board and one of the national boards.  It's actually hard to parse apart right now...

CWRU closes with Westminster and Carnegie Mellon and I wouldn't ink those games in as wins for CWRU.  Also Thomas More has already closed out the TMC closes with St. Vincent, Bethany, and Thiel- none of which should challenge the Saints, so I think TMC is cruising to an undefeated PAC record.  How the PAC would sort out 8-0 TMC and 8-0 CWRU, I don't know yet.  I don't think we've seen anything definitive on this tiebreak scenario. 

First: as one of our handful of regular PAC posters, I will confirm that it's nearly a lock that Thomas More runs the table.  They have already cleared all significant obstacles on their schedule (wins in consecutive weeks over W&J, CMU, Westminster) and should cruise to the finish.  You can't totally rule it out (I mean, Bethany led W&J for the majority of last night's game before falling 37-36, and St. Vincent did play TMC tough last year) but I'd put TMC's chances of running the table at about 98 percent.

Second, although CWRU has a very nice team, they do have a pair of competitive games remaining.  Both Westminster and Carnegie Mellon are good teams.  CMU beat CWRU last year, and their 3-3 record belies how good they've been (with an OT loss vs. 5-1 WashU; 4-point loss to TMC; OT loss vs. 5-1 W&J).  Westminster is sitting at 5-1 with their own moments of truth to come (next three games: W&J, CMU, CWRU).  I'll say that Case is the slight favorite against both CMU and Westminster, but not a very heavy one.  CWRU probably is about 50/50 to run the table in their PAC games.

Finally, if they do both finish undefeated, ADL70 and SaintsFAN have been trying to parse this apart, but it's still not 100 percent clear to me...

PAC tiebreaker

Tiebreaker for NCAA automatic qualifier (AQ): 1) Head-to-head competition, 2) Record against the highest-ranked team in the conference not involved in the tie. In the case of a three-way tie, it would be the fourth team. In case of a four-way tie, it would be the fifth-team, etc. If the records against that team are the same, it goes to the next highest team not involved in the tie, etc., 3) strength of conference wins (conference winning percentage of teams you beat in 8 PAC games, 4) Overall record, 5) Record vs. common non-league opponent(s). Note: if one team is eliminated, the tiebreaker begins again at step #1. All teams in a 3 or more team tie must have played each other for the head-to-head tiebreaker to be applicable.  [Emphasis added]

I would think #3 would favor TMC with Case not playing W&J.

I actually want to roll it back to criteria #2.  What if one of the teams is 1-0 against the "highest team not involved in the tie" and the other is 0-0? I don't know if that breaks the tie or not.  If it doesn't, then #3 seems likely to favor TMC because they've played all of the other heavyweights while Case will miss one.  But this is where it gets fun...because all sorts of other games not involving the two teams start to matter.  If Bethany had held on to upset W&J last night, that would have helped Case.  If CMU had beaten W&J last week, that would have helped Case.  W&J becomes a critical piece as the best team that TMC plays and CWRU misses.  The Westminster-Carnegie Mellon game also matters because it could influence who ends up in that third-place spot.  The Westminster-W&J game will matter, too.  I think Case needs W&J to lose (maybe twice, actually) because if W&J finishes alone in third place, that would seem to give Thomas More the tiebreaker on criteria #2.

I don't think this gets to criteria #4.  I think it ends at #2 or #3.  But it's incredibly messy right now.

Guess what?  We're still not done!  Case also has a non-league game with 5-1 WashU, still in contention for the SAA title.  This doesn't matter for PAC title purposes, but it does include a pair of teams that are on the fringes of the playoff picture and the regional-rankings discussion(s).  WashU can do Case a big favor by winning the SAA and getting themselves regionally ranked.  What if Case finishes 9-1 with a loss to Carnegie, giving TMC the PAC title, but a win over eventual SAA champion WashU?  Does that Case get in as a 9-1 Pool C team?  The potential butterfly-effects still floating around here are mind-numbing.

I expect that wally will switch from the "Eliminator" to the actual selection exercise once we're a little further along, maybe week 9 or so...

[Ralph Turner]

Week #7 South Region Poll

This is all over the place!  16 teams are getting ballots and only 6 on every ballot.

Thanks to my fellow pollsters: Hasanova, jknezek, roocru, Scots 13.

1)	UMHB	50	1,1,1,1,1
2)	JHU	44	2,2,2,2,3
3)	HSU	41	2,3,3,3,3
4)	Thomas More	35	4,4,4,4,4
5)	ETBU	28	5,5,5,5,7
.	.	.	.
6)	CWRU	26	5,6,6,6,6
7)	Huntingdon	14	7,7,8,8,x
8)	Muhlenberg	11	6,8,8,x,x
9)	Berry	6	7,9,x,x,x
10T)	Westminster PA	5	7,10,x,x,x
10T)	WashUStL	5	8,9,x,x,x
.	.	.	.
RV)	Wash & Jeff	4	9,10,10,x,x
RV)	Carnegie-Mellon	2	9,x,x,x,x
RV)	Hendrix	2	9,x,x,x,x
RV)	Southwestern TX	1	10,x,x,x,x
RV)	Wash & Lee	1	10,x,x,x,x
.	.	.	.

As always, corrections are appreciated.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Looks like you've got nearly a consensus on 1,2,3,4, then a tight 5,6, then a tight 7,8, then total randomness as people grope for somebody to fill up their ballot!  I know the feeling.  On my national ballot, I found 1-13 pretty easy, couldn't find anyone that felt like a 14-19, then AT LEAST 20 who seemed to be worthy of 20-25!

[Ralph Turner]

Looks like you've got nearly a consensus on 1,2,3,4, then a tight 5,6, then a tight 7,8, then total randomness as people grope for somebody to fill up their ballot!  I know the feeling.  On my national ballot, I found 1-13 pretty easy, couldn't find anyone that felt like a 14-19, then AT LEAST 20 who seemed to be worthy of 20-25!

Thanks for the out-of-region comment.

We have a mess down here.

UMHB and HSU still need to play.

TMC and CWRU do not play this year.

The SAA is a bloody street fight among 4 good teams that become 1st round fodder if sent to one of the Top 4.

The ODAC and USA South have not seen a definite leader. Huntingdon has the ugly loss at NCWC. The ODAC is up in the air!

[ADL70]

But CWRU has three games remaining vs teams ARV.

[GillCJ1]

Southwestern getting a vote!  Good for them.

[Scots13]

Looks like you've got nearly a consensus on 1,2,3,4, then a tight 5,6, then a tight 7,8, then total randomness as people grope for somebody to fill up their ballot!  I know the feeling.  On my national ballot, I found 1-13 pretty easy, couldn't find anyone that felt like a 14-19, then AT LEAST 20 who seemed to be worthy of 20-25!

Thanks for the out-of-region comment.

We have a mess down here.

UMHB and HSU still need to play.

TMC and CWRU do not play this year.

The SAA is a bloody street fight among 4 good teams that become 1st round fodder if sent to one of the Top 4.

The ODAC and USA South have not seen a definite leader. Huntingdon has the ugly loss at NCWC. The ODAC is up in the air!

You should start writing for Cliffs Notes. You took 7 Weeks of SRPF voting pain and summed it up in about 75 words. Impressively done!

[jknezek]

Hmm. I'm the lone holdout on Huntingdon. I'm really struggling with the NC Wes loss. I actually think I'd go with Maryville before I threw Huntingdon a vote. At least they lost to a team that floats around the poll, on the road, by 1 point. Fortunately they play 11/5, so unlike the PAC we can actually see these teams on the field.

I've got Case at 6 like most of the poll. I also know their opponents are 12-27 on the year and their best opponent to date is either Chicago at 3-3 or St Vincent at 4-2. How do you end up with the pillow fight of the week, every week, for your first 7 games in the PAC?

Flip a coin for the SAA. That one is going to the wire. Good but not great. Having seen Hendrix I wasn't surprised Berry beat them. I'm surprised that Hendrix beat Centre and therefore I'm surprised Centre beat Wash U because Wash U beat Berry (easily by the way). All of which has me flabbergasted.

The ODAC. Oh the ODAC. All I can say about the ODAC is W&L is 3-0, beat Guilford, and lost to two teams that are currently 10-1. Granted the 1 loss was a monkey stomping that gets in the way of the narrative, but I don't think the ODAC is as tangled as people believe right now. I think the best team just happens to have a real OOC schedule this year, unlike most of the other teams and their incestuous reliance on some part of Methodist, Averett, and Greensboro. I'm not the 10 vote for W&L by the way. They need to do some more winning before they find their way back in my poll after some of their ugly wins and the complete second half disaster against C-M-S.

Yeah, not really interested in Southwestern. Sorry. They've beaten 3 teams that have 6 wins between them and lost to anyone they played that is competent. With the round robin, it doesn't get better.

I've got great respect for Carnegie Mellon, but sooner or later they have to beat someone. I like close losses to good teams. It's a good tie breaker versus losses to bad teams. But when you have 3 losses to good teams, it means you aren't at that top tier. They've beaten 3 teams that are 5-15. But I group them with W&L right now. You've got to actually win some, not just play them close if you want to be ranked.

Where am I an outlier? Well Huntingdon for one, as discussed. But I'm also the 7 for Westminster. Here's a team that has lost 1 close game, and won some bad ones. What sets them apart from CMU? Maybe nothing except their SOS, but at some point you have to reward winning. If you lose to the top 10 teams in the country, you are still 0-10. You might be #11, but I doubt too many people would put you there.

[Scots13]

I had Huntingdon 8 and Berry 9. HC lost to NCWC by 10, but NCWC isn't terrible. No. 1 SOS and when it comes to USAC (and ODAC) games, everybody gets one. Just how the conference is. Maryville is too young for me to vote them in until they beat someone like Huntingdon. Young talent everywhere. On the flip side, Huntingdon is senior loaded and they've rebounded to normal form since the trip to Rocky Mount (granted against Ferrum and LaGrange). Berry went on the road and beat the #22 team on the country. That counts for something--even if I'm still raw over the 1 point loss Week 1. You can't leave 5 points on the board and turnover the ball over 5+ times and expect to beat a junior and senior laded team. I was at the game and MC should have had another 42-24 showing, but it is what it is...a loss.

RMC really had a chance for me to get under my HSC buddies' skin but blew it against E&H.
Southwestern is nowhere near my radar.
SAA will be a coin flip until Week 11.


Might as well show my cards for this week:
1. UMHB
2. HSU
3. JHU
4. TMC
5. CWRU
6. Muhlenberg
7. ETBU
8. Huntingdon
9. Berry
10. Westminster

[GillCJ1]

I should probably clarify - I can absolutely see why most people would not have Southwestern in their top 10.  If I was looking at things objectively, I might not either.  But it was cool on a personal level to see them get a vote.  I'm looking forward to seeing them in person once they join the ASC.

[roocru]

For the first time this year I am listing and talking about my votes primarily because I am the one who put in Southwestern this week.  My votes were as follows:

1    UMHB
2    Johns Hopkins
3    HSU
4    Thomas More
5    ETBU
6    Case Western
7    Huntingdon
8    Muhlenberg
9    Carnegie Mellon
10   Southwestern

I realize I am going out on a limb with Southwestern.  If they lose next week I will revert to the other huddled masses we have been slogging through.  My reasons:

1  None of the others have scheduled the same caliber of teams. In fact many on the boards discuss their disappointment with the schedules they play (SOS).
2  They lost to #11 in the D3 Top 25 HSU in the first week of the season by 23 points (3-26) and held them to their lowest point total of the year.
3  They lost to #19 ETBU by 10 (23-33) and held them to their lowest point total except for UMHB.
4  They lost to a WIAC team in the best D3 Conference by 20 (22-42)
5  They slaughtered AC and Trinity and beat Austin College by 30 points as did Hendrix
6  A lot of the teams in the poll who are beating each other every week show little sign of improvement while Southwestern appears to get better each week.  I am tired of voting a team in one week and then seeing them take an unexpected upset the next.
7  Perhaps most controversial, looking at the playoff results for these other conferences and the fluctuations in the individual team season records, I see no reason to think they they are all that good in the grand scheme of D3 football.

I just wanted everyone to know where I am coming from.

[Scots13]

For the first time this year I am listing and talking about my votes primarily because I am the one who put in Southwestern this week.  My votes were as follows:

1    UMHB
2    Johns Hopkins
3    HSU
4    Thomas More
5    ETBU
6    Case Western
7    Huntingdon
8    Muhlenberg
9    Carnegie Mellon
10   Southwestern

I realize I am going out on a limb with Southwestern.  If they lose next week I will revert to the other huddled masses we have been slogging through.  My reasons:

1  None of the others have scheduled the same caliber of teams. In fact many on the boards discuss their disappointment with the schedules they play (SOS).
2  They lost to #11 in the D3 Top 25 HSU in the first week of the season by 23 points (3-26) and held them to their lowest point total of the year.
3  They lost to #19 ETBU by 10 (23-33) and held them to their lowest point total except for UMHB.
4  They lost to a WIAC team in the best D3 Conference by 20 (22-42)
5  They slaughtered AC and Trinity and beat Austin College by 30 points as did Hendrix
6  A lot of the teams in the poll who are beating each other every week show little sign of improvement while Southwestern appears to get better each week.  I am tired of voting a team in one week and then seeing them take an unexpected upset the next.
7  Perhaps most controversial, looking at the playoff results for these other conferences and the fluctuations in the individual team season records, I see no reason to think they they are all that good in the grand scheme of D3 football.

I just wanted everyone to know where I am coming from.

Your reasoning makes it a little easier pill to swallow. I agree to your point of voting for bottom team and then having that team lose. It is tiresome. +k

[HansenRatings]

Hadn't really noticed how big of a cluster the South Region was becoming. Here's the Top 25 South Region teams in my model right now:

South Rank	Nat. Rank	Team
1	1	UMHB
2	14	JHU
3	15	TMC
4	25	HSU
5	31	CWRU
6	34	Muhlenberg
7	35	ETBU
8	37	Huntingdon
9	41	Carnegie Mellon
10	42	Hendrix
11	44	Westminster
12	45	W&J
13	52	Wash U
14	53	Berry
15	56	Maryville
16	58	Centre
17	60	W&L
18	65	Guilford
19	67	S'western
20	68	RMC
21	69	Franklin & Marshall
22	83	TLU
23	85	Moravian
24	86	NC Wesleyan
25	92	Susquehanna

Yes. Mess.