FB: Region 3 fan poll

[Ralph Turner]

Hadn't really noticed how big of a cluster the South Region was becoming. Here's the Top 25 South Region teams in my model right now:

South Rank	Nat. Rank	Team
1	1	UMHB
2	14	JHU
3	15	TMC
4	25	HSU

South Rank	Nat. Rank	Team
5	31	CWRU
6	34	Muhlenberg
7	35	ETBU
8	37	Huntingdon
9	41	Carnegie Mellon
10	42	Hendrix
11	44	Westminster
12	45	W&J

South Rank	Nat. Rank	Team
13	52	Wash U

South Rank	Nat. Rank	Team
14	53	Berry
15	56	Maryville
16	58	Centre
17	60	W&L
18	65	Guilford
19	67	S'western
20	68	RMC
21	69	Franklin & Marshall
22	83	TLU
23	85	Moravian
24	86	NC Wesleyan
25	92	Susquehanna

Yes. Mess.

8 teams among the 15 places between 31 and 45!

We have the mathematical 13 teams in the top 52.

We have 9 teams among the 18 places between 52 and 69, another cluster.

[HansenRatings]

4 teams in the 30's
4 teams in the 40's
4 teams in the 50's
5 teams in the 60's

[SaintsFAN]

I'm really just not impressed with JHU.  Annually, it's like they win their league games by an average of 45-14 and then sputter in The Tournament.  Am I remembering correctly their coach said something about The Tournament not being a focus for the program.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I'm really just not impressed with JHU.  Annually, it's like they win their league games by an average of 45-14 and then sputter in The Tournament.  Am I remembering correctly their coach said something about The Tournament not being a focus for the program.

Fair-ish criticism...but let's dig into this a little bit.

Johns Hopkins' playoff results the last seven years (the start of their Centennial dominance):

2015: beat Western New England 52-20; loss to Wesley 42-37 in sweet 16 (Wesley loss to Mount Union 56-35 in quarterfinals)
2014: beat Rowan 24-16; loss to Hobart 24-21 in sweet 16 (Hobart loss to Wesley 41-13 in quarterfinals)
2013: loss to Wesley 29-24 in first round (Wesley loss to Mount Union 62-59 in quarterfinals)
2012: beat Washington & Jefferson 42-10 in first round; loss to Mount Union 55-13 in sweet 16 (Mount Union wins national title)
2011: loss to St. John Fisher 23-12 in first round (St. John Fisher loss to St. Thomas 45-10 in quarterfinals)
2010: no playoffs
2009: beat HSC 23-7 in first round; beat Thomas More 31-29 in sweet 16; loss 12-0 to Wesley in quarterfinals (Wesley loss 24-7 to Mount Union in semifinals)

Sure, Johns Hopkins has only made one quarterfinal appearance in their seven-year reign over the Centennial, and that was seven years ago (I know it looks fishy, but I decided to go back to 2009 from the start, lol; I didn't choose that cutoff just so I could include the lone quarterfinal appearance). 

Anyways over the last seven years, they've made six playoff appearances and won the first round game four times, and I don't think any of the eventual eliminations were an embarrassment.  Once they were eliminated by Mount Union directly; three times they were eliminated by a Wesley team that went on to lose to Mount Union.  The losses to Hobart and SJF were probably disappointing, but those are other teams that reside in the same general strata of D3 that they do, the "10-25" range, the consistently-good-but-never-really-a-title-threat group.  The overall picture makes them very similar to a bunch of other "second tier" programs.  They're clearly below the UMU-UWW-UMHB-Linfield-UST-Wesley power stratum, and it's fair to say they might get a little too much polling credit because they're perennially going 9-1 or 10-0 without much playoff success.  But who else belongs in that vacuum behind the 6-7 most powerful programs in Division III?  They're as qualified as any, right?

Let's look at a couple other peer programs: say, your alma mater.  Actually, let's pool TMC+W&J together as a composite  "PAC champion" team for more available data.

2015 (TMC): beat Washington & Lee 51-21; loss to Wabash 33-27 (OT) in sweet 16 (Wabash loss 38-7 to St. Thomas in quarterfinals)
2014 (W&J): beat Wittenberg 41-25; loss to Mount Union 67-0 in sweet 16 (Mount Union loss in Stagg Bowl)
2013 (W&J): loss to Mount Union 34-20 in first round (Mount Union loss in Stagg Bowl)
2012 (W&J): loss to Johns Hopkins 42-10 (Johns Hopkins loss to Mount Union 55-13 in sweet 16)
2011 (TMC): loss to Franklin 24-21 in first round (Franklin loss 41-14 to UWW in sweet 16)
2010 (TMC): beat Washington & Lee 42-14 in first round; loss to UMHB 69-7 in sweet 16 (UMHB loss 19-9 to Wesley in quarterfinals)
2009 (TMC): beat DePauw 49-39 in first round; loss 31-29 to Johns Hopkins in sweet 16 (Johns Hopkins loss 12-0 to Wesley in quarterfinals)

In short, while you might not be that impressed by JHU, maybe you're just tough to impress.  Check out other similar programs like Franklin, Wabash, Wittenberg, St. John Fisher, Hobart, etc.  They're all going to look about the same - a handful of first-round wins, maybe one or two quarterfinal appearances...beyond the UMU-UWW-UMHB-Linfield-UST-Wesley group, JHU is on equal footing with just about everyone, right?

Other than UMHB, I don't see a South Region program that can definitely claim more recent playoff success.  JHU has five playoff wins in the last seven years, including two vs. PAC champion; the PAC Champion has four.  JHU has one quarterfinal appearance, the PAC Champion has zero.

[jknezek]

+K. This is the problem we face. We don't have a second top 10 type South Region team. We have UMHB, then we have a slew of second tier schools that simply aren't in that stratosphere. Whether it is JHU, TMC, W&J, none are a title threat right now, but all can go 10-0 or 9-1, win a game or two in the playoffs, and bow out to the top tier. Maybe another of the ASC schools is good enough to make progress, but the Texas Sub-bracket usually takes care of them before we can find out.

So yeah, JHU isn't a national title contender, but it's hard to put anyone else in that slot.

[Ralph Turner]

I'm really just not impressed with JHU.  Annually, it's like they win their league games by an average of 45-14 and then sputter in The Tournament.  Am I remembering correctly their coach said something about The Tournament not being a focus for the program.

Fair-ish criticism...but let's dig into this a little bit.

Johns Hopkins' playoff results the last seven years (the start of their Centennial dominance):

2015: beat Western New England 52-20; loss to Wesley 42-37 in sweet 16 (Wesley loss to Mount Union 56-35 in quarterfinals)
2014: beat Rowan 24-16; loss to Hobart 24-21 in sweet 16 (Hobart loss to Wesley 41-13 in quarterfinals)
2013: loss to Wesley 29-24 in first round (Wesley loss to Mount Union 62-59 in quarterfinals)
2012: beat Washington & Jefferson 42-10 in first round; loss to Mount Union 55-13 in sweet 16 (Mount Union wins national title)
2011: loss to St. John Fisher 23-12 in first round (St. John Fisher loss to St. Thomas 45-10 in quarterfinals)
2010: no playoffs
2009: beat HSC 23-7 in first round; beat Thomas More 31-29 in sweet 16; loss 12-0 to Wesley in quarterfinals (Wesley loss 24-7 to Mount Union in semifinals)

Sure, Johns Hopkins has only made one quarterfinal appearance in their seven-year reign over the Centennial, and that was seven years ago (I know it looks fishy, but I decided to go back to 2009 from the start, lol; I didn't choose that cutoff just so I could include the lone quarterfinal appearance). 

Anyways over the last seven years, they've made six playoff appearances and won the first round game four times, and I don't think any of the eventual eliminations were an embarrassment.  Once they were eliminated by Mount Union directly; three times they were eliminated by a Wesley team that went on to lose to Mount Union.  The losses to Hobart and SJF were probably disappointing, but those are other teams that reside in the same general strata of D3 that they do, the "10-25" range, the consistently-good-but-never-really-a-title-threat group.  The overall picture makes them very similar to a bunch of other "second tier" programs.  They're clearly below the UMU-UWW-UMHB-Linfield-UST-Wesley power stratum, and it's fair to say they might get a little too much polling credit because they're perennially going 9-1 or 10-0 without much playoff success.  But who else belongs in that vacuum behind the 6-7 most powerful programs in Division III?  They're as qualified as any, right?

Let's look at a couple other peer programs: say, your alma mater.  Actually, let's pool TMC+W&J together as a composite  "PAC champion" team for more available data.

2015 (TMC): beat Washington & Lee 51-21; loss to Wabash 33-27 (OT) in sweet 16 (Wabash loss 38-7 to St. Thomas in quarterfinals)
2014 (W&J): beat Wittenberg 41-25; loss to Mount Union 67-0 in sweet 16 (Mount Union loss in Stagg Bowl)
2013 (W&J): loss to Mount Union 34-20 in first round (Mount Union loss in Stagg Bowl)
2012 (W&J): loss to Johns Hopkins 42-10 (Johns Hopkins loss to Mount Union 55-13 in sweet 16)
2011 (TMC): loss to Franklin 24-21 in first round (Franklin loss 41-14 to UWW in sweet 16)
2010 (TMC): beat Washington & Lee 42-14 in first round; loss to UMHB 69-7 in sweet 16 (UMHB loss 19-9 to Wesley in quarterfinals)
2009 (TMC): beat DePauw 49-39 in first round; loss 31-29 to Johns Hopkins in sweet 16 (Johns Hopkins loss 12-0 to Wesley in quarterfinals)

In short, while you might not be that impressed by JHU, maybe you're just tough to impress.  Check out other similar programs like Franklin, Wabash, Wittenberg, St. John Fisher, Hobart, etc.  They're all going to look about the same - a handful of first-round wins, maybe one or two quarterfinal appearances...beyond the UMU-UWW-UMHB-Linfield-UST-Wesley group, JHU is on equal footing with just about everyone, right?

Other than UMHB, I don't see a South Region program that can definitely claim more recent playoff success.  JHU has five playoff wins in the last seven years, including two vs. PAC champion; the PAC Champion has four.  JHU has one quarterfinal appearance, the PAC Champion has zero.

+1!  I agree with the analysis.

Now that Wesley has moved to the East, JHU "should always make it" to the Round of 8. I think that they are in the same range as TMC. I think that the number of East Region Pool A bids may "push" teams into a JHU "sub-bracket" as the "#2 seed" from the "Northern" South Region. (The #1 and #2 seeds for the East Region coming from the NJAC and E8 in most years.)

In the southern half of the South Region, everything must go thru UMHB. I think that puts a damper on the assessment of the other teams in the ASC. There are no weaker conference Pool A teams nearby  to beat up on in the first 2 rounds.

I think that the East finally has 2 good conferences that will improve the quality of the Region.  Adding Wesley CNU Salisbury and Frostburg was a big plus for the conference, and I think that the E8/SUNYAC configuration actually makes the E8 stronger. There are enough other Pool A bids in the East that the NJAC and E8 can establish some dominance.

[Ralph Turner]

+K. This is the problem we face. We don't have a second top 10 type South Region team. We have UMHB, then we have a slew of second tier schools that simply aren't in that stratosphere. Whether it is JHU, TMC, W&J, none are a title threat right now, but all can go 10-0 or 9-1, win a game or two in the playoffs, and bow out to the top tier. Maybe another of the ASC schools is good enough to make progress, but the Texas Sub-bracket usually takes care of them before we can find out.

So yeah, JHU isn't a national title contender, but it's hard to put anyone else in that slot.

+1! Ditto the Texas Sub-bracket!      

[ExTartanPlayer]

+K. This is the problem we face. We don't have a second top 10 type South Region team. We have UMHB, then we have a slew of second tier schools that simply aren't in that stratosphere. Whether it is JHU, TMC, W&J, none are a title threat right now, but all can go 10-0 or 9-1, win a game or two in the playoffs, and bow out to the top tier. Maybe another of the ASC schools is good enough to make progress, but the Texas Sub-bracket usually takes care of them before we can find out.

So yeah, JHU isn't a national title contender, but it's hard to put anyone else in that slot.

I mean, I get where it comes from.  The gap between the top 6-7 teams and the next group can be so large that sometimes it feels like whoever is ranked in that 10-11-12 slot is "overrated" because they're a lot closer to the 25th-best team than they are to the 6th-best team.

Over the last couple years I myself had seen Hopkins ranked #11, 12, 13 in the national polls and at times wondered if they really deserved it.

But then I'd look at the teams floating around them - teams like Thomas More, W&J, Wabash, Franklin, occasionally an OAC #2 like John Carroll or Ohio Northern, Hobart, St. John Fisher, Delaware Valley, whoever happens to be leading the ODAC or NJAC (just to name a few of the teams that usually float around the 10th-25th slots of the poll) - and JHU's resume and playoff chops stand with any of those teams.  It only pales in comparison to that top tier. 

And, as jknezek said, UMHB is the only one from that top tier that hails from the South Region.  Ergo, Hopkins usually floats up to #2 or #3 in the South by default.  They're in the playoffs every year.  They usually win a game.  That's enough to keep them perpetually near the top of the South rankings.

[SaintsFAN]

Good stuff.  Maybe I've been influenced by what Coach Margraff may or may not have said? 

Is there a category just below title contenders and just above JHU and the rest of the South?

If we are sitting here in a couple years and my alma mater hasn't broken through the second round, I'm not going to be happy with the progress. 

Of course, TMC has a President under contract until 2022, who's stated intention is to take the program to the next step - whatever that may be.  There are plans for stadium expansion and improvements, as well. 


EDIT:  I meant to also say something about OOC scheduling.  I'm just kinda blah on this here.  Look at the teams who have stepped out of conference against really good teams and you'll see those programs trending up.  I obviously firmly believe TMC is trending that way.  They were playoff participants for a few years under Hilvert and then there was a 3 year period which was a lull.  I think last year could be starting a new era at Thomas More for its football team.  Rose-colored glasses, though. 

[Bob.Gregg]

Of course, TMC has a President under contract until 2022, who's stated intention is to take the program to the next step - whatever that may be.  There are plans for stadium expansion and improvements, as well. 

D-II is what's been floating about for "the next step" for TMC...I'm sure you've heard/seen/read that.

[jknezek]

It's important to remember that JHU has 1 non-conf game a year. That spot is tied up with W&L and RMC, starting this year and running through the next 3 seasons. W&L was a pre-season top 25 team, coming off a playoff season and with multiple ODAC championships in the last 5 years. RMC is a bit of a traditional opponent for JHU, and while they have been spotty, they started this year 5-0 before being upset last weekend and are still very much in the ODAC mix.

I applaud TMC for scheduling Franklin, but they also scheduled Bridgewater. A team that really hasn't been ODAC relevant more than once or twice in the last decade.

OOC is part art, part magic, and part luck. Especially when you only get 1 chance per year.

I think there are 4 or 5 tiers of teams in the playoffs. I think you have an elite set of teams that consistently make the Elite 8 more years than not. UMU, UWW, Wesley, UMHB, Linfield, the MIAC champ. Then you have a second set of teams that occasionally fill out the Elite 8. The WIAC runner-up, NCC, the MIAC runner-up.

Then there are teams that have a shot to win 2 games but typically don't. This is where I put JHU, TMC, W&J, Franklin, Wheaton, Wabash, Witt, the pre-Wesley NJAC champion, the OAC runner-up, the MAC champion, the E8 champion, the IIAC champion.

After that you push down the list to teams that may have a shot to win one game with a good match up or a good year. The ODAC champion, the ASC runner-up (if they don't get re-matched), the LL champion, the SAA champion, the SCIAC champion if they don't get Linfield'd, the MIAA champion. After that you get a few of sacrificial lambs that might, with a good match up in a good year, win a game. The ECFC, MWC, NACC, USASAC, the UMAC champions.

We can argue all day about these, and I'm not real interested in how everyone would adjust my tiers because I agree there is a ton of argumentation to be had, but this is how D3 football really looks. The gulf between the best of the best and the third tier is huge. It would be a huge upset for JHU to knock off a team in the tiers above them, though they have come close with Wesley a couple times. So being ranked around 10-15 makes sense to me. Taking a step above that would involve a huge change in quality.

Does JHU's coach prioritize winning the Centennial? I'm sure he does. JHU is a very strong academic school. One of the best in DIII. Getting the kinds of kids at JHU to compete at the top tier, in the numbers needed, would be extremely difficult. There is a reason that many of the schools listed in my top 2 or 3 tiers have admittance rates north of 70% of applicants. A few admit more than 90% of applicants, essentially reaching the "breath, sign a check, and don't be a criminal" bar.

For JHU to be as good as they've been is extremely impressive. It's likely however, that the kids they need to take the next step are riding the pine at GTech or Northwestern or an Ivy or even the Patriot League. But there aren't enough of those kids to take those teams to the top of their divisions, and that filters down to DIII as well. The higher the academic requirements, the smaller the pool. For football, with it's massive need for bodies, it gets really difficult. It's why I don't think the NESCAC would be as strong in football as they are in most other sports. There just aren't enough kids with the skills and grades to go around.

[SaintsFAN]

Of course, TMC has a President under contract until 2022, who's stated intention is to take the program to the next step - whatever that may be.  There are plans for stadium expansion and improvements, as well. 

D-II is what's been floating about for "the next step" for TMC...I'm sure you've heard/seen/read that.

I have heard that and have seen the stadium plans.  We'll see... I find it very suspect to change the mission of the school to support D2 athletics.  But I guess you never know?

[SaintsFAN]

It's important to remember that JHU has 1 non-conf game a year. That spot is tied up with W&L and RMC, starting this year and running through the next 3 seasons. W&L was a pre-season top 25 team, coming off a playoff season and with multiple ODAC championships in the last 5 years. RMC is a bit of a traditional opponent for JHU, and while they have been spotty, they started this year 5-0 before being upset last weekend and are still very much in the ODAC mix.

I applaud TMC for scheduling Franklin, but they also scheduled Bridgewater. A team that really hasn't been ODAC relevant more than once or twice in the last decade.

OOC is part art, part magic, and part luck. Especially when you only get 1 chance per year.

I think there are 4 or 5 tiers of teams in the playoffs. I think you have an elite set of teams that consistently make the Elite 8 more years than not. UMU, UWW, Wesley, UMHB, Linfield, the MIAC champ. Then you have a second set of teams that occasionally fill out the Elite 8. The WIAC runner-up, NCC, the MIAC runner-up.

Then there are teams that have a shot to win 2 games but typically don't. This is where I put JHU, TMC, W&J, Franklin, Wheaton, Wabash, Witt, the pre-Wesley NJAC champion, the OAC runner-up, the MAC champion, the E8 champion, the IIAC champion.

After that you push down the list to teams that may have a shot to win one game with a good match up or a good year. The ODAC champion, the ASC runner-up (if they don't get re-matched), the LL champion, the SAA champion, the SCIAC champion if they don't get Linfield'd, the MIAA champion. After that you get a few of sacrificial lambs that might, with a good match up in a good year, win a game. The ECFC, MWC, NACC, USASAC, the UMAC champions.

We can argue all day about these, and I'm not real interested in how everyone would adjust my tiers because I agree there is a ton of argumentation to be had, but this is how D3 football really looks. The gulf between the best of the best and the third tier is huge. It would be a huge upset for JHU to knock off a team in the tiers above them, though they have come close with Wesley a couple times. So being ranked around 10-15 makes sense to me. Taking a step above that would involve a huge change in quality.

Does JHU's coach prioritize winning the Centennial? I'm sure he does. JHU is a very strong academic school. One of the best in DIII. Getting the kinds of kids at JHU to compete at the top tier, in the numbers needed, would be extremely difficult. There is a reason that many of the schools listed in my top 2 or 3 tiers have admittance rates north of 70% of applicants. A few admit more than 90% of applicants, essentially reaching the "breath, sign a check, and don't be a criminal" bar.

For JHU to be as good as they've been is extremely impressive. It's likely however, that the kids they need to take the next step are riding the pine at GTech or Northwestern or an Ivy or even the Patriot League. But there aren't enough of those kids to take those teams to the top of their divisions, and that filters down to DIII as well. The higher the academic requirements, the smaller the pool. For football, with it's massive need for bodies, it gets really difficult. It's why I don't think the NESCAC would be as strong in football as they are in most other sports. There just aren't enough kids with the skills and grades to go around.

They've also played St John Fisher twice and Wesley in OOC in the past few years. 

[wally_wabash]

OOC is part art, part magic, and part luck. Especially when you only get 1 chance per year.

Yep.  Wabash started a home and home with Albion (defending MIAA champion) this year.  Looked like a solid non-league game that checks all the boxes you want: competitive team out of the gate, likely to do well in their league and post a solid W/L record, possibly get regionally ranked with a really nice year.  And then...plop.  Albion is 0-6 this year and even if Wabash successfully navigates the final two weeks of their season vs. Denison and DePauw and gets to 9-1, if that NCAC tiebreak doesn't go their way, at-large consideration gets dicey given what Albion's losing streak is doing to Wabash's SOS figure (do not go look at this...definitely NSFW).  It's a tough break, but what can you do?  Sometimes a traditionally decent team has an historically awful year. 

This is basically why I've adopted this position on OOC scheduling- schools should schedule OOC games that make sense for the 160 reasons other than trying to game the selection criteria.  Some years the committees prefer SOS, and even in those years you can't guarantee that your OOC partner is going to have the kind of year you would have thought they would.  Some years the committees prefer win percentage in which case you should have scheduled something easier.  And the committees change personnel every year, so when you're scheduling games 2-4 years away, you have no idea which individuals you're supposedly crafting an at-large profile for.  So forget all that.  Schedule games in areas where you want recruiting exposure or in areas with large alumni bases and make a whole institutional weekend out of it.  Schedule games close by that help keep athletics expenditures down, if that's a necessity (and it is in a lot of places).  Or schedule games in different regions to give your SAs a nice travel experience, if you can afford to.  Schedule games with old rivals that might be in a different conference now.  But if you try to create an OOC schedule that boosts your at-large profile, you're going to wind up chasing your tail. 

[Ralph Turner]

What Wally said...  +1!

I cannot fault JHU for scheduling RMC or W&L for OOC games. D-3 is about competition among peer institutions.  Both teams are respectable athletic programs with similar missions and visions.  RMC and W&L almost benefit more for playing and beating JHU.