FB: Region 3 fan poll

[Ralph Turner]

Here are my predictions, in some sentiment and agreement with others who have posted above:

#1 Trinity hosts 1-3 Centre, but they have a hangover in the first half from last week. less than 10 pt lead at the half, more than 24 at the final horn.
#2 R-MC hosts 3-1 Averett; has their first, and possibly only, test of the year, but wins easily. Who else in the ODAC is worthy of consideration for #6 or #7?
#3 Berry @ 1-4 Southwestern. Berry rolls. They're mad and a bad Southwestern team faces the music.
#4 Hardin Simmons @ 2-2 McMurry. Cross town rivals. McMurry has not beaten HSU since 2011. Hardin Simmons struggles early before winning by 10.
#5 UMHB @ 1-3 Texas Lutheran. UMHB wins, showing steady improvement, a young team that has been shown you must win on the field.
#6 Belhaven hosts 4-1 Huntingdon. Belhaven wins in the only good game of the bunch. I think this will be a slugfest with the advantage to the home team.
#7 Howard Payne hosts 2-2 East Texas Baptist. Howard Payne wins by 2 scores. The win over GFU is losing its luster. I am not sure who is worthy of #7 consideration in the Region.

[jknezek]

#2 R-MC hosts 3-1 Averett; has their first, and possibly only, test of the year, but wins easily. Who else in the ODAC is worthy of consideration for #6 or #7?

No one or everyone. I suspect Shenandoah, Bridgewater, H-SC and W&L are all going to split games, earning multiple losses. I expect Guilford and Averett to bring up the back. Which is why I was so surprised to see Averett on ballots before the W&L game.

Wouldn't surprise me at all for the ODAC to jumble behind R-MC based on home games and injuries in any given week.

[Cowboy2]

Ehh. I'd assume all 1-7 win by an average of 28+ across the spread only because the Huntingdon Belhaven game will be within one or two scores. I hope it comes down to the wire. I predict a Lot of fire power this week with little defense. I've watched each team in 1-2 games+ this year and I don't see any of the matchups being too close when the clock strikes 0s.

Trinity: sharpens the sword working on fundamentals - win by 28
R-MC: tight at 1Q but runs away with it after 20min - win by 28
Berry: Bloodbath to show they're Pool C worthy - win by 42
HSU: never close 45-13ish game running for 300 team yards
UMHB: close 1Q then 49-20ish game
R3 game if the week?: Huntingdon  34-31 or 31-27 Belhaven
HPU: always in control and wins a 35-20 ish game

[BSCpanthers]

Here are my predictions and results

#1 Trinity wins easily- Won 31-3, never in doubt
#2 R-MC has their first, and possibly only, test of the year, but wins easily- won 59-7, never in doubt
#3 Berry wins easily-won 52-10, never in doubt
#4 Hardin Simmons struggles early before winning by 10-won 19-16, tied going into the 4th
#5 UMHB wins, but again shows they are not elite this yearwon 55-21, never in doubt
#6 Huntingdon gets the win on the road, but should be a great game-Lost 29-3, completely missed this one
#7 Howard Payne wins by 2 scores-won 28-14, struggled late to keep the win

End result I feel like I hit on 4, missed on 2 and pushed on 1, the push being the Hardin Simmons game.

[tigerguy]

Here are my predictions and results

#5 UMHB wins, but again shows they are not elite this year won 55-21, never in doubt

I didn't watch the game, but according to the play by play summary, UMHB pulled a lot of its starters with around 5 minutes left in the third, at which point in time the score was 48-7. They got it to 55-7 before TLU scored twice in the last 8 minutes - the last of which was with no time left on the clock. I presume both late TDs were against UMHB's end of the bench. Seemed like a pretty good stomping before backups came in. But I guess maybe your observation is more so geared towards depth?(aka, an elite UMHB squad's backups would continue to keep door shut?). If so, definitely true - UMHB does not look near as deep as they usually do this year.

edit: completely overlooked that the non-bold part was your pre-saturday prediction, not your reaction post-game. Ignore!

[BSCpanthers]

Here are my predictions and results

#5 UMHB wins, but again shows they are not elite this year won 55-21, never in doubt

I didn't watch the game, but according to the play by play summary, UMHB pulled a lot of its starters with around 5 minutes left in the third, at which point in time the score was 48-7. They got it to 55-7 before TLU scored twice in the last 8 minutes - the last of which was with no time left on the clock. I presume both late TDs were against UMHB's end of the bench. Seemed like a pretty good stomping before backups came in. But I guess maybe your observation is more so geared towards depth?(aka, an elite UMHB squad's backups would continue to keep door shut?). If so, definitely true - UMHB does not look near as deep as they usually do this year.

edit: completely overlooked that the non-bold part was your pre-saturday prediction, not your reaction post-game. Ignore!

That was one of the 2 games I considered I missed on.  The other being the Huntingdon-Belhaven game.

[Ralph Turner]

McM took HSU to OT.
McM gave HSU a personal foul  penalty & 1st & goal on the 10. As I read the Live Stats HSU would have had 4th & 5 at the 20 in OT, down 13-10.

[BSCpanthers]

Six weeks in and the polls are probably going to show that we all agree on the same seven to be in, even if we don't completely agree in the order in which they are placed.  The ASC is the only conference with some real games to be played with UMHB still has to play Hardin Simmons and Howard Payne.  ODAC will probably be won by a 10-0 R-MC.  Trinity and Belhaven have their conference all but locked down at this point. 

[Blazers1]

Hopefully Belhaven will jump up in the poll this week! A great win for a program that has been on the rise under Coach McCorkle

[jknezek]

First time since I took over the poll that there are no teams "Also Receiving Votes". I know this because it blew up the code I use to tabulate votes and create the post formatting and I had to go back and figure out why. My usual 5 minutes to put in all the votes and click a button turned into more than an hour of problem solving because we all agree on the top 7. At one point I was frustrated enough that I almost changed my vote, but I legitimately could not find another team that I could slot into the 7th spot with a straight face.

Berry and R-MC changed places this week, with Berry taking over 2nd. Last week R-MC had taken over sole second after the previous week the teams were tied in that spot. R-MC is likely a victim of their schedule, as Berry's game with Trinity looked better recently but their game with Huntingdon not so much after last week. It's entirely possible a convincing win over Bridgewater could vault R-MC back above Berry this week.

Regardless, positions 1, 2, and 3 are now well clear of positions 4 and below. Hardin-Simmons went from being 4pts off 3rd to 10pts back. While UMHB went from 7 in back of Hardin-Simmons to only 2, with Belhaven only 1 in back of UMHB. Howard Payne is the clear 7th school, going from only one point in back of Belhaven last week 8 pts this week.

What's the point? While the voters have consensus on who should be in the poll, spots 2 and 3, and spots 4-6, have little or no difference in points totals. UMHB has the largest variance, a 3 vote and a pair of 7s, but R-MC is sporting 2s and a 5 while Hardin-Simmons holds a 3 and a couple 6s.

The only games involving the Top 7 playing teams with more than one win this week are R-MC facing Bridgewater, likely the best game of the bunch, especially since it is at Bridgewater, and UMHB hosting 3-2 SRSU, after SRSU takes another long bus ride, which pretty much is the definition of SRSU's tenure in the ASC.

Region 3 (South Atlantic-Ish) Fan Poll Week 6

Conferences: ASC, ODAC, SAA, USASAC

Rank			School			Points			Weekly Change			Voter Breakdown
1			Trinity (TX) (6)			42			0			1 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 1
2			Berry			32			1			2 , 3 , 4 , 2 , 2 , 3
3			R-MC			30			-1			5 , 2 , 2 , 4 , 3 , 2
4			Hardin-Simmons			20			0			3 , 4 , 3 , 6 , 6 , 6
5			UMHB			18			0			4 , 7 , 7 , 3 , 4 , 5
6			Belhaven			17			0			6 , 6 , 5 , 5 , 5 , 4
7			Howard Payne			9			0			7 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 7 , 7

Also Receiving Votes:


Newly Ranked: None
Dropped Out: None

1 = 1st Place Vote, 7 = 7th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: jknezek, BSCpanthers, Wild Horse Rider, Ralph Turner, Cowboy2, Hawks88

[BSCpanthers]

This weeks prediction for the top 7.

1. Trinity has a bye
2. Berry hosts 1-5 Millsaps, I expect this game to be over early. Berry understands their position and will be looking to make their case for that all elusive Pool C.
3. R-MC is at 4-1 Bridgewater.  That R-MC offense has scored 51 or more in every game.  I expect that offense to keep rolling, R-MC by 3 or more scores.
4. Hardin Simmons hosts 1-4 Texas Lutheran, Hardin Simmons by 3 scores.
5. UMHB hosts 3-2 Sul Ross, I'm still not sold on UMHB, but they will win by 2 scores. 
6. Belhaven at 0-5 LaGrange, Belhaven continues their March to the USAC championship, no contest.
7. Howard Payne hosts 1-4 Austin, Austin may put up a fight early, but Howard Payne takes the W and it's never in doubt.

Not much on the plate this weekend, R-MC at Bridgewater is the only game with meaning for me this weekend.  But I don't expect any of these games to be closer then 2 scores. 

[Ron Boerger]

This weeks prediction for the top 7.

1. Trinity has a bye
2. Berry hosts 1-5 Millsaps, I expect this game to be over early. Berry understands their position and will be looking to make their case for that all elusive Pool C.
3. R-MC is at 4-1 Bridgewater.  That R-MC offense has scored 51 or more in every game.  I expect that offense to keep rolling, R-MC by 3 or more scores.
4. Hardin Simmons hosts 1-4 Texas Lutheran, Hardin Simmons by 3 scores.
5. UMHB hosts 3-2 Sul Ross, I'm still not sold on UMHB, but they will win by 2 scores. 
6. Belhaven at 0-5 LaGrange, Belhaven continues their March to the USAC championship, no contest.
7. Howard Payne hosts 1-4 Austin, Austin may put up a fight early, but Howard Payne takes the W and it's never in doubt.

Not much on the plate this weekend, R-MC at Bridgewater is the only game with meaning for me this weekend.  But I don't expect any of these games to be closer then 2 scores.

I'm keeping an eye on Sewanee at Rhodes.  If they can get past the Lynx it sets up a meaningful game against Trinity in week 10. 

[jknezek]

Bridgewater is a difficult place to play in the ODAC. While I expect R-MC to win, I don't think it will be a cakewalk, which is going to make R-MC's ranking much more interesting.

Susquehanna steamrolled Bridgewater at Bridgewater in week 1, and Susquehanna sits in the D3football.com rankings right below R-MC. So this will be interesting for R-MC from that perspective because Susquehanna has a win over #15 Cortland, who has a win over #25 Del Val, while R-MC's best opponent was a decidedly mediocre Averett squad that feasted on a non-conference schedule of Apprentice, Greensboro, and Brevard.

Basically, R-MC may be scoring more than 50 a game, but they have played teams that have gone a combined 9-18 this season. Currently R-MC ranks 179th in SoS. I believe only Ferrum is behind them in the ODAC. They are steamrolling teams they should be steamrolling, but it's about to get more interesting for the YellowJackets and they better keep steamrolling or else pretty much every other conference champion is going to look a lot better.

[y_jack_lok]

^^^ That is a very insightful assessment. Somone, perhaps you, commented weeks ago about the problems of the USA South/ODAC pairings being created to limit travel instead of potentially competitive matchups. If they had gone the competitive route we might know a bit more now about RMC than we do. Last year the Jackets beat Bridgewater 44-7 in Ashland. I would be very surprised to see a score like that tomorrow. In the games vs Guilford and Averett the past two weeks RMC benefitted from a number of turnovers that gave them short fields and they scored easily each time. Bridgewater has fumbled 11 times and lost six of those, which is more than either Guilford or Averett . The Eagles had better take care of the ball or RMC's streak scoring 30 or more in the past 20+ games could continue.

[jknezek]

^^^ That is a very insightful assessment. Somone, perhaps you, commented weeks ago about the problems of the USA South/ODAC pairings being created to limit travel instead of potentially competitive matchups. If they had gone the competitive route we might know a bit more now about RMC than we do. Last year the Jackets beat Bridgewater 44-7 in Ashland. I would be very surprised to see a score like that tomorrow. In the games vs Guilford and Averett the past two weeks RMC benefitted from a number of turnovers that gave them short fields and they scored easily each time. Bridgewater has fumbled 11 times and lost six of those, which is more than either Guilford or Averett . The Eagles had better take care of the ball or RMC's streak scoring 30 or more in the past 20+ games could continue.

I have no doubt R-MC is going to score 30. I suspect it will be 44-27 or so. And yes, I pointed out that the pairings stunk.