FB: Region 3 fan poll

[TLU05SA]

Still no love for McMurry 

I guess they have to beat HSU before anyone considers them a legitimate contender.

[jknezek]

Still no love for McMurry 

I guess they have to beat HSU before anyone considers them a legitimate contender.

McMurry's only good win is TLU, who is not in the poll. TLU's only good win is Trinity. Who is not in the poll. Centre is the last team in the poll, with a very tight loss to H-SC, much better than McMurry's loss to Southwestern, and a win over Trinity, which is kind of equal to TLU. ETBU's loss is to UMHB, much better than McMurry's to Southwestern, and they have a win over Hendrix, who beat Southwestern, who beat McMurry.

Now it's a tangled web, but I just don't see the justification for McMurry. They haven't done anything except lose to a 2-2 team that just got crushed by Berry. The game against H-S and the second game against TLU are important because the rest of that schedule is pretty putrid. Lyon and Austin both stink, and Centenary is only marginally better.

Where do you think their votes should be coming from? Which team is not deserving to be in the poll instead? Shenandoah is RV and that loss to R-MC was much closer, and to a better team, than McMurry's loss to Southwestern.

You can't lose to a very mid team and have no wins over any better than a mid team, and hold that up as a top resume in my opinion.

[Ron Boerger]

Still no love for McMurry 

I guess they have to beat HSU before anyone considers them a legitimate contender.

They have to beat *somebody decent* before anyone considers them a legitimate contender.  jknezek brought the receipts.

[jknezek]

Still no love for McMurry 

I guess they have to beat HSU before anyone considers them a legitimate contender.

They have to beat *somebody decent* before anyone considers them a legitimate contender.  jknezek brought the receipts.

I'm not sure they need to beat Hardin-Simmons. At worst they need to lose a close game depending on other results. There's a lot of football to play. Right now there are 2 ODAC teams in the poll and I'm not convinced the ODAC isn't going to turn itself into a pile of spaghetti by the end of the season. Maryville could run the table and be in contention with only a tight loss to Centre. Centre and Berry is going to be fascinating. ETBU has a lot of tough games and could pile up some losses.

McMurry has paths to get in, I just don't see a legitimate reason to have them over anyone currently in the poll.

[Ralph Turner]

Still no love for McMurry 

I guess they have to beat HSU before anyone considers them a legitimate contender.

They have to beat *somebody decent* before anyone considers them a legitimate contender.  jknezek brought the receipts.

I'm not sure they need to beat Hardin-Simmons. At worst they need to lose a close game depending on other results. There's a lot of football to play. Right now there are 2 ODAC teams in the poll and I'm not convinced the ODAC isn't going to turn itself into a pile of spaghetti by the end of the season. Maryville could run the table and be in contention with only a tight loss to Centre. Centre and Berry is going to be fascinating. ETBU has a lot of tough games and could pile up some losses.

McMurry has paths to get in, I just don't see a legitimate reason to have them over anyone currently in the poll.

I agree. Were they undefeated, one could throw them a vote and wait for them to lose. They were driving late in the 4th Q against Southwestern and just could not execute.

[TLU05SA]

Why does Trinity matter here? Your arguments center around Trinity being a good team. News flash. Trinity is not good. So why should Centre's win (at home) against Trinity weigh so much? If the reasoning is Trinity is good, well, TLU beat Trinity on the road and McMurry beat TLU. Seems like that should weigh more than Centre beating Trinity in Kentucky.

In the ODAC, who has Randolph-Macon and Hampden-Sydney beaten that are so good? I guess Hampden-Sydney beating Centre but, again, that necessitates assuming that Trinity is good. Randolph-Macon lost to Berry (at RM).

To say they have to beat someone decent is a stretch. TLU is not decent?

[TLU05SA]

I agree. Were they undefeated, one could throw them a vote and wait for them to lose. They were driving late in the 4th Q against Southwestern and just could not execute.

So McMurry has to be undefeated.  Let's eliminate all the 1-loss teams from this poll then.

[jknezek]

Why does Trinity matter here? Your arguments center around Trinity being a good team. News flash. Trinity is not good. So why should Centre's win (at home) against Trinity weigh so much? If the reasoning is Trinity is good, well, TLU beat Trinity on the road and McMurry beat TLU. Seems like that should weigh more than Centre beating Trinity in Kentucky.

In the ODAC, who has Randolph-Macon and Hampden-Sydney beaten that are so good? I guess Hampden-Sydney beating Centre but, again, that necessitates assuming that Trinity is good. Randolph-Macon lost to Berry (at RM).

To say they have to beat someone decent is a stretch. TLU is not decent?

Trinity matters because it's something of a common opponent, or a common opponents opponent. And if Trinity isn't good, what basis does McMurry have for being in the poll? McMurry has a loss to a mid team, Southwestern, and a win over TLU, who may be good, and then wins over some teams that are bad. Why do we think TLU might be good? Because they beat Trinity. So if Trinity isn't good, TLU has nothing to their name other than wins over bad teams and a loss to McMurry who lost to Southwestern, so McMurry's win over TLU doesn't real mean much except if you consider Trinity a decent team. TLU and McMurry have played no one besides each other and TLU vs Trinity. Everyone else in the poll has played at least someone decent. Maybe they haven't won, but they played a quality opponent to a tight game.

Hardin-Simmons beat a very credible Endicott team. UMHB beat UWW. Berry beat RMC, barely. Which puts R-MC right behind them because they barely lost, plus a win over RV Shenandoah. ETBU put up a decent fight against UMHB, putting up more points than UWW. H-SC beat Centre. Centre barely lost to H-SC putting them right behind. Shenandoah barely lost to R-MC putting them in the mix. All these teams have a result against what we believe are quality opponents.

TLU and McMurry just can't make that same claim right now. Is it a bit incestuous with RMC, Berry, Shenandoah, H-SC and Centre? Of course. But if we assume that Berry and R-MC are top 7 worthy, then the others fall in line logically. There is no logic for TLU or McMurry. They have no result against anyone yet. Both will get there chances.

And yes, I'm very careful about saying "result" and not "win". So no, I won't discount all the 1 loss teams. But I might discount teams with losses to teams that aren't anywhere near the poll... cough, cough, Southwestern.

[jknezek]

Region 3 (South Atlantic-Ish) Fan Poll Week 6

Conferences: ASC, ODAC, SAA, SCAC, USASAC

Another interesting week. UMHB drops, H-SC falls out, Shenandoah joins the poll. McMurry and Bridgewater start getting votes.

Rank			School			Points			Weekly Change			Voter Breakdown
1			Hardin-Simmons (5)			35			0			1 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 1
2			Berry			29			1			2 , 2 , 2 , 3 , 2
3			R-MC			24			1			3 , 3 , 3 , 4 , 3
4			UMHB			18			-2			4 , 4 , 2 , 4
5			ETBU			12			0			5 , 5 , 5 , 5
6			Centre			8			1			4 , 6 , 6
7			Shenandoah			5			---			6 , 7 , 6

Also Receiving Votes:
McMurry (4) , Bridgewater (2) , TLU (2) , H-SC (1)

Newly Ranked: Shenandoah
Dropped Out: H-SC (Prev:6)

1 = 1st Place Vote, 7 = 7th Place Vote in Voter Breakdown
Special Thanks to the Voters: jknezek, BSCpanthers, Cowboy2, Ralph Turner, Hawks88



Only two games match teams at least receiving votes:
Hardin-Simmons travels to McMurry in what could be the game of the week
Shenandoah treks to Bridgewater as part of the ODAC tangle

[Ralph Turner]

I deduce that McMurry got a 5th and a 7th.
H-SC got a 7th.
Bridgewater and TLU received either two 7th's or one 6th.

IMHI, I don't see how McMurry is stronger than any other non-SCAC teams.
If McMurry can stay with HSU (less than a monkey stomp), then let's reconsider them.

[jknezek]

I deduce that McMurry got a 5th and a 7th.
H-SC got a 7th.
Bridgewater and TLU received either two 7th's or one 6th.

IMHI, I don't see how McMurry is stronger than any other non-SCAC teams.
If McMurry can stay with HSU (less than a monkey stomp), then let's reconsider them.

Picking those last couple spots is hard, especially when there is a tangle like this one:

Centre > Trinity  Centre won at home by 12 pts
H-SC > Centre     H-SC won at home by 4pts
W&L > H-SC        W&L won at home by 2 pts
Trinity > W&L     Trinity won at home by 6 pts

I suspect the real answer is these teams are more or less equal as in 3 of the 4 games, the road team had a chance to win late.

McMurry is, at least, out of that loop, and they convincingly beat a team (TLU) that convincingly beat Trinity. Of course, soon Southwestern, who beat McMurry, will complicate that loop as I suspect they will lose at Centre this week and against Trinity in a few weeks.

I just think there is a lot of parity this season, maybe it starts at spot 2, maybe at spot 4, but after that, there are at least 10 teams that could fit 3-6 spots. 

[Cowboy2]

Should have bought a lotto because I hit on all of them.

Another string is

TLU beat Trinity
Southwestern beat McMurry
Hendrix beat Southwestern
McMurry beat TLU
Rhodes beat Hendrix
Southwestern beat Rhodes

Trinity plays Rhodes this Saturday.

Take it a step further and look at the millsaps scores amongst common opponents vs SAA ODAC USAS, and then Scores of the games listed above, you'll see it's anyone's guess after spot #1 this year.

[Ron Boerger]

It will be interesting to see if there is a return to "normalcy" after COVID eligibility is no longer a thing. 

[BSCpanthers]

I gave a nod to McMurry(5) and Bridgewater(7) this week.  As we are now halfway through the season I'm giving a little forgiveness for those week one losses.  However, McMurry plays Hardin-Simmons and Bridgewater plays Shenandoah.  So it's up to them to keep those spots.  The winner of the Shenandoah/Bridgewater will probably be in the polls after this week. 

[Cowboy2]

Both Bridgewater and Shenandoah are 4-1 so it should be a good matchup this week. Shenandoah's loss looks better to me, but if you are giving little forgiveness to week one losses, then you need to consider other results; point of margins, their one common opponent, and quality of loss taken.


Shenandoah lost to RV R-MC by 1pt in week 5. R-MC is 4-1 and has only lost to current #25 Berry (4-1) by a score of 28-24 in wk3. Berry's only loss was to current #13 DePauw 33-0.

In common opponents They beat Ferrum 42-20, but it was 35-6 at half 

Bridgewater got thumped @ current #8 Susquehanna 41-7 in week one. Susquehanna is 5-1 and has only lost to current #2 Cortland (5-0) by a score of 40-38 in wk3.

In common opponents They beat Ferrum 41-15, but it was 13-6 at half 

Both of these teams are pegged higher on my board and come in at 7 and 8 respectively. Shenandoah's only loss looks a tad better than Bridgwater's only loss. Susquehanna may be better than R-MC, or maybe not, but R-MC is still the semifinalist representative for R3 last year. I know, I know, Susquehanna was the only team to beat Cortland last year.

McMurry (4-1) lost to Southwestern (3-2) in week 1. Their only quality win is over TLU (4-1) who's only quality win was week 1 against a young (3-2) Trinity team; who's only losses are to TLU (4-1) and Centre (4-1).

Going into this weekend I'd have Shenandoah 7, Bridgewater 8, McMurry 9