MIAA pick 'em

[Civic Minded]

Wednesday, January 7

3--Adrian at Albion
4--Alma at Kalamazoo
2--Trine at Calvin
1--Hope at Olivet

[BogeyMan]

Calvin - 4
Hope - 3
Kalamazoo - 2
Albion - 1

[monsoon]

4 - Calvin
3 - Kalamazoo
2 - Albion
1 - Olivet

[Roughrider]

   MIAA Pick 'Em Trivia--Special Pre-Conference Season Edition (07-Jan-2009)   

Greetings once again, Pick 'Em pickers.  It's that time of the year again.  Back in the day, we used to say "It's time to put on your thinking caps."  I even heard FDF use that phrase recently (not that I think you're "old"    ).  Now the younger generation says "It's time to whip out your PDA", or something like that.

With all the talk on this board about the parity and uncertainty in the MIAA this year, I decided to speculate about how this might play out.  As a supplement to my Pick 'Em contest spreadsheet, I created a spreadsheet for picking the winners and losers of every conference game for the entire season, gave it my best guess at the moment, and added up the results.  I must say that, in agreement with the opinion expressed by others here, the conference race is as wide open as I have ever seen it.  However, I never really expected to end up with the results I got.  Much to my surprise, I showed six teams finishing above 0.500, and only two finishing below 0.500.

Now I remember when another poster projected mostly winning records in a recent past season, and I recall the fun that was had at said poster's expense regarding his questionable math ability, and the quality of education received from a certain school.     But before we once again resurrect (and flog     ) that expired equine, let us take note that the wins and losses do indeed add up to equal totals.

I substituted letter codes for school names, to postpone the inevitable discussions about which schools belonged where.  That's a whole separate dialog that deserves it's own space, and it's already been discussed on the main MIAA board to some extent.  At this point, I just wanted to show the mathematical possibilities.  My first scenario of theoretical final standings came out with six contenders (four schools at 9-5 and two more at 8-6) and two also-rans.

My first scenario of final standings looks like this:

School	Wins	Losses	Total Games
A	9	5	14
B	9	5	14
C	9	5	14
D	9	5	14
E	8	6	14
F	8	6	14
G	3	11	14
H	1	13	14
Totals	56	56	NA

Showing one more upset of a bottom-feeder over a contender, we could end up with three at 9-5, three more at 8-6, then two at the bottom.

Then you get a scenario that looks like this:

School	Wins	Losses	Total Games
A	9	5	14
B	9	5	14
C	9	5	14
D	8	6	14
E	8	6	14
F	8	6	14
G	4	10	14
H	1	13	14
Totals	56	56	NA

Purely My Opinion:
Are my scenarios likely to happen?  Probably not, but as tight as this race is looking to be, every game is critical to the final outcome.  If someone gets hot and goes 11-3 or even 10-4, they have a very high probability of taking the title.  If the top teams are 9-5, well . . . .  Hold onto your keyboards, pickers, it's going to be a fun season.

Other comments, observations, and conclusions are always welcome.


RR

[realist]

RR:  It sounds like you put some time into your projections.  Could it happen yes, but having watched the MIAA for 40+ years now it generally has turned out to be a 2 horse race, and once in awhile a 3rd team will come into view, only to quickly fade away.  Just look at the MIAA teams, and NCAA appearances.
I just don't see Hope & Calvin, and two other MIAA teams putting 9-5 teams on the floor the same year. 

[Roughrider]

Realist, I've only been following the MIAA for about 12 years, and I have to agree with you.  In my limited experience, it generally turns out as you say.  I just began to wonder, after observing what I thought was the inconsistent performance of everyone in pre-conference play, if this year could be different.     If any of the traditional "Big Three" stumble, I could envision Adrian, Olivet, and/or Trine stealing an upset or two.  After all, look what happened to Albion tonight.     Even so, you're probably right.  I just thought it would be an amusing "what if".

RR

[realist]

I expect there will be upsets.  Albion losing at home is a minor one, and defending home court is critcal to success, perhaps more so this year than most years.

Sat.
Calvin over Alma 4
Hope over Albion 3
Olivet over Trine 1
Adrian over Kalamazoo 2

[KnightSlappy]

Saturday, January 10

Albion at Hope, 3
Alma at Calvin, 4
Kalamazoo at Adrian, 1
Olivet at Trine, 2

[calvin_grad]

Saturday, Jan. 10

Calvin - 4
Hope - 3
Adrian - 2
Olivet - 1

[statguy]

Hope over Albion - 3
Calvin over Alma - 4
Adrian over Kalamazoo - 2
Trine over Olivet - 1

[thealmascots]

Calvin over Alma - 4
Hope over Albion - 3
Adrian over Kalamazoo - 2
Olivet over Trine - 1

[Hopester]

Albion at Hope 3
Alma at Calvin 4
Kalamazoo at Adrian 2
Olivet at Trine 1

[monsoon]

Sat., Jan. 10
4 - Calvin
3 - Adrian
2 - Hope
1 - Olivet

[calvin66]

Saturday games
Calvin over Alma  - 4
Hope over Albion- 3
Adrian over Kazoo- 2
Trine over Olivet- 1

[13wapiti]

Saturday's Picks


Calvin over Alma - 4
Hope over Albion - 3
Adrian over Kalamazoo - 2
Olivet over Trine - 1