TOP 25

[redswarm81]

When it's the Tommies, it's luck.  When it's the Johnnies, it's magic.

And when it's Beth El's (non-St. John's) opponent?

[TC]

When it's the Tommies, it's luck.  When it's the Johnnies, it's magic.

And when it's Beth El's (non-St. John's) opponent?

Justice.

[K-Mack]

Who are the 4 #1s that the brackets get built around?

#1 - East - Mount Union
#2 - North - UW-Whitewater
#3 - South - Mary Hardin-Baylor
#4 - West - Winner of this Saturday's St. John's/St. Thomas game

Talent-wise, I think St. Thomas is the best non-WIAC team in the West.  Their recent struggles against St. John's have been well-documented and they haven't had the recent playoff success that Linfield and Central have, but if they can beat SJU (and both teams win out), they will have the resume of a #1/#2 seed.

If SJU beats St. Thomas (and both teams win out), I think they pretty clearly become the 4th #1 with the normal MUC/UW-W machinations that that entails.  And I really hope it happens, but I think they are decided underdogs on Saturday against USTd.  Ugh, it sucks to write that.

If you saw me reveal my top 10, you know that i actually agree with you, at least at the moment, re: St. Thomas, but I'm eager to hear what you base this on.

I think it's waaaay too early to be projecting No. 1 seeds.

Even if you operate under the assumption the UWW, MUC and UMHB are the No. 1s, UWW and MUC offer enough geographic flexibility to allow someone like Wesley to be the East's No. 1 (even though they're techinically South, distance-wise they could make this happen). Wheaton and St. John's/St. Thomas play enough comp where they could stumble. Linfield could creep in. Who knows.

Or you could end up being right.

At this point, it's entirely a hunch. 

First, I agree with your thinking that the Johnnies are overrated at #6 in the D3Football.com poll.  You have them at #7, I probably would have them a few notches lower than that.  That said, the team that wins on Saturday will have a clear (but not guarenteed) path to an undefeated record with wins over St. Thomas/St. John's, Bethel (nearly beat Wheaton), Concordia (beat Willamette) and, in St. John's case, two wins over underwhelming teams from the WIAC.  Like it or not, that's the resume of a #1/#2 team come playoff time.  With St. John's name recognition, I would be very comfortable saying they will be a #1 seed if they go 10-0, though there are always surprises come Selection Sunday. 

...

That's not to say St. John's can't or won't win this game.  I really, really hope they do.  Like every year, they have a lot of very good football players on their team.  St. Thomas fielding a Top 15 team is "man bites dog", while St. John's fielding a Top 15 team is "dog bites man".  And after the ridiculous finishes the Johnnies have had this year against Bethel and UW-Eau Claire, it's ridiculous to pick against them with much certainty.

Sorry for the rambling post, but that's why I'm looking forward to this game and that's my thinking behind calling St. Thomas the most talented non-WIAC team in the West.  While I don't think either of these teams is one of the 4 best in D3, I do think the winner ends up 10-0 and likely locks up the final #1 seed.

I think St. John's resume is strong, and as you pointed out, the MIAC is having a good year with some key non-conference wins.

It's usually hard to lock teams in as top seeds this early ... with Linfield, Central and UW-Whitewater also unbeaten and potentially in the West, name recognition or the perception of being deserving as a 1 seed might not be that much of a factor. It really might be the numbers that settle it.

As for the top 4 teams in the poll, it's probable a team around No. 10 or so gets a 1 seed. Potentially Wheaton/MUC/UWW in north, UWW/SJU/Lin/Central in west and Wesley/MUC in east and Wesley in south ... among the highly ranked teams.

Unless both MUC and Wesley get 1s, that could leave like an Albright as the 1 in the East or a Miss Coll as the 1 in the south.

Lots of football yet to be played though

[TC]

It's usually hard to lock teams in as top seeds this early ... with Linfield, Central and UW-Whitewater also unbeaten and potentially in the West, name recognition or the perception of being deserving as a 1 seed might not be that much of a factor. It really might be the numbers that settle it.

I take back what I said earlier about a 10-0 team from the MIAC having a clear shot at a #1 (if it's St. John's)/#2+ (if it were St. Thomas) seed.  I went back and looked at the 10-0 teams from the MIAC in the D3Football.com era and, well, for some reason the 2003 Johnnies were clouding my memory:

West Region undefeated teams (10-0 unless noted), with seeds:

2008: #1-Willamette, #2-Occidental (9-0), #3-Monmouth
2007: #1-Central, #3-St. Norbert (UW-Whitewater (9-1) was the #1 seed in the North Region)
2006: #1-UW-Whitewater, #2-Central, #3-Whitworth, #6-Occidental, #8-St. Norbert
2005: #1-Linfield (8-0), #2-UW-Whitewater, #3-St. John's , #4-Occidental, #7-Monmouth
2004: #1-Linfield (9-0), #2-Concordia-Moorhead
2003: #1-St. John's , #2-Linfield (9-0), #3-Wartburg, #4-St. Norbert
2002: #1-Linfield (9-0)
2001: No undefeated teams.
2000: #1-Linfield (9-0), #2-UW-Stout, #3-Bethel , #4-Central, #5-St. Norbert
1999: #1-Wartburg

It's dangerous to look at undefeated conference representatives without looking at individuals teams and their unique resumes, but I think this shows a loose pecking order of West Region conferences:

1. Northwest Conference - 5 of 7 undefeated NWC teams have gotten a #1 seed, one was #2 behind eventual National Champion St. John's, the other was #3 Whitworth, not typically known as a top NWC team
2. Wisconsin IAC - Few teams make it through a WIAC schedule undefeated, but two years ago a 1-loss UW-Whitewater team was moved out of region to be a #1 seed.  The WIAC's conference strength is clearly being taken into account in seeding teams.
3. Minnesota IAC- An undefeated MIAC team has never been seeded lower than a non-NWC/WIAC team
4. Iowa IAC - Again, an undefeated IIAC team has never been seeded lower than a non-NWC/WIAC/MIAC team, only once higher than an NWC team
5. Southern California IAC - A conference that is starting to garner some respect by winning some games in the playoffs.
6. Midwest Conference - The MWC's undefeated teams have always been the lowest seeded undefeated in the West and have been 3 of the 4 undefeated teams seeded behind teams with at least 1 loss.

What does it mean, assuming the undefeateds win out?  Well, UW-Whitewater has moved into the upper echelon of D3 and until they lose a game I'm assuming they'll get a #1 seed, either in the West or North.  If Linfield can win out, I'd imagine they are next in line, followed by St. John's and Central, respectively.  (It will interesting to see what happens following Central's 37-7 ass-kicking of St. John's in 2007).  A strong 1-loss team leapfrogging Monmouth is possible, though they pasted their toughest opponent (St. Norbert) pretty good.

That good 1-loss team easily could have been Bethel if they could have held on against Wheaton.  Bethel beating Wheaton would have had pretty significant ramifications for Bethel, the MIAC, the West region, and the national playoff picture as a whole.

So yeah, this doesn't really have much to do with the Top 25 (or anything, for that matter) but, like I was saying, I was way off base to say that either St. John's or St. Thomas would give themselves a clear shot at a #1 seed with a win last Saturday.

[Pat Coleman]

Except that you're only saying they have a shot. They have no shot if they lose, so it's fair to say with a win that they do have a shot.

Two West teams may well get No. 1 seeds, which would increase SJU's chances.

We'll know more next Wednesday when the regional rankings come out.

[DutchHawk]

So in your opinions what separates Linfield and SJU from Central. All are undefeated. What makes Linfield and SJU ahead of Central at this point, the Dutch havent been challenged by closer than 14 points except for UWSP (now ranked 26* and defending WIAC - toughest conference in the country - champions) Im not sure how you could justify one getting a 1 seed above the others. If you can justify it please inform me of your thought process! Thanks!

[Pat Coleman]

I start with strength of schedule numbers, which now favor Linfield after this past week.

http://www.d3football.com/strength-of-schedule/2009

[DutchHawk]

I start with strength of schedule numbers, which now favor Linfield after this past week.

http://www.d3football.com/strength-of-schedule/2009

So do you put Central ahead of SJU then?

[TC]

I start with strength of schedule numbers, which now favor Linfield after this past week.

http://www.d3football.com/strength-of-schedule/2009

So do you put Central ahead of SJU then?

The SOS numbers are, essentially, even.  St. John's has beaten St. Thomas and Bethel, Central has beaten Coe and UW-Stevens Point, so that's essentially even. 

Either St. Thomas or Bethel is guaranteed one more loss, and UW-Stevens Point plays UW-Whitewater this week.  Looking ahead, even that's pretty even. 

The only reason why **I** think St. John's is slightly ahead at this point is that the committee has shown a slight preference for MIAC schools over IIAC (and NWC) schools when they have the same amount of losses.  But I wouldn't be shocked if Central were #2 and St. John's were #4.

For the record, I think if the Johnnies played 100 neutral-site games against Central (or Linfield), St. John's would lose more than 50 of them.

[DutchHawk]

I start with strength of schedule numbers, which now favor Linfield after this past week.

http://www.d3football.com/strength-of-schedule/2009

So do you put Central ahead of SJU then?

The SOS numbers are, essentially, even.  St. John's has beaten St. Thomas and Bethel, Central has beaten Coe and UW-Stevens Point, so that's essentially even. 

Either St. Thomas or Bethel is guaranteed one more loss, and UW-Stevens Point plays UW-Whitewater this week.  Looking ahead, even that's pretty even. 

The only reason why **I** think St. John's is slightly ahead at this point is that the committee has shown a slight preference for MIAC schools over IIAC (and NWC) schools when they have the same amount of losses.  But I wouldn't be shocked if Central were #2 and St. John's were #4.

For the record, I think if the Johnnies played 100 neutral-site games against Central (or Linfield), St. John's would lose more than 50 of them.

Check your math...
Central is 79th in SOS
SJU is 111th

Thats not "essentially" even by any means.

[TC]

Check your math...
Central is 79th in SOS
SJU is 111th

Thats not "essentially" even by any means.

Among teams that are undefeated in region, there are zero teams with an opponent's winning % between Central's and St. John's, and St. John's has the decided edge on OOWP.  But your condescension is noted and appreciated.

[DutchHawk]

Check your math...
Central is 79th in SOS
SJU is 111th

Thats not "essentially" even by any means.

Among teams that are undefeated in region, there are zero teams with an opponent's winning % between Central's and St. John's, and St. John's has the decided edge on OOWP.  But your condescension is noted and appreciated.

Fair enough, I didnt mean to come off in a negative way. I did not look closely as far as the region goes.

[sju56321]

Didn't Central play Lakeland? Not much help there, but as Pat pointed out to me yesterday, you have UWSP. But, they may well lose to UWW, so their winning percentage will decrease and the SOS could shift.
The interesting question is would the NCAA change the West rankings based only on an opponet loosing-for example, if they had Linfield ahead of SJU base on SOS with the Oxy win and Oxy were to lose their last two games and UWEC or UWRF were to win out, increasing SJU's SOS?

[DutchHawk]

Didn't Central play Lakeland? Not much help there, but as Pat pointed out to me yesterday, you have UWSP. But, they may well lose to UWW, so their winning percentage will decrease and the SOS could shift.
The interesting question is would the NCAA change the West rankings based only on an opponet loosing-for example, if they had Linfield ahead of SJU base on SOS with the Oxy win and Oxy were to lose their last two games and UWEC or UWRF were to win out, increasing SJU's SOS?

True we did play Lakeland, sometimes its just hard to schedule. So what is more impressive, SJU beating two bottom feeder WIAC teams (as the standings are now) or Central beating the defending WIAC champs and currently tied for 1st place WIAC team. It will be interesting to see things pan out. Top 3 will be Central SJU Linfield in some order, gotta beat everyone to get to the show anyways, but the difference between 1 and 2 could be huge as far as hosting the regional final.

Central has really been dominant in all but 1 game (UWSP), having beat everyone else by at least 14, and in a lot of these games the opponent was scoring with their first team vs our second/third teamers to make the final score look closer than the game really was.

Either way it will be a fun West Region! Good luck and stay healthy!

[BoBo]

True we did play Lakeland, sometimes its just hard to schedule. So what is more impressive, SJU beating two bottom feeder WIAC teams (as the standings are now) or Central beating the defending WIAC co-champs and currently tied for 1st place WIAC team.

IMO they kind of even out...the WIAC "bottom feeder" teams (River Falls and Eau Claire) you speak of are not as bad as you think and would be highly competitive with the top 1/2 of the IIAC and prossibly beat many.  And if it wasn't for Stevens Point blowing an 11 point lead, on Central's field, in the last 5 minutes of their first game of the year (Central's 2nd), Central loses big at home and they wouldn't currently be on the same level as SJU, Linfield and UWW (the other defending WIAC Co-Champ  ) in the west region - so in my view, it's a draw. 

UWW at UWSP this week may help to bring the situation into better focus.