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Started by short, July 11, 2008, 10:56:29 PM

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Ralph Turner

http://www.sctimes.com/article/20091013/SPORTS/110130028/Rajkowski-column--Polls-can-often-be-a-guessing-game

Knee-jerk "AFCA Poll is better" comment at the end of Frank Rajkowski's column today in the StCloud paper.

Click and enjoy.

(I think that the D3football.com is more accurate, JMHO).

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 13, 2009, 06:54:10 PM
http://www.sctimes.com/article/20091013/SPORTS/110130028/Rajkowski-column--Polls-can-often-be-a-guessing-game

Knee-jerk "AFCA Poll is better" comment at the end of Frank Rajkowski's column today in the StCloud paper.

Click and enjoy.

(I think that the D3football.com is more accurate, JMHO).

This attitude is common, but has always bemused me.  While coaches potentially are better prepared to evaluate teams than most, think about it - any coach who during the season knows much more than diddley-squat about any team not on his schedule IS NOT DOING THE JOB HE'S PAID FOR!

But, then again, most 'coach's ballots' are not cast by the coach anyway! :D

altor

Looking at the SoS numbers, Wesley has got to be on the short list for a #1 seed, don't they?  Or will they get hurt by all the non-DIII teams on the back half of their schedule?

Ralph Turner

Quote from: altor on October 13, 2009, 09:52:46 PM
Looking at the SoS numbers, Wesley has got to be on the short list for a #1 seed, don't they?  Or will they get hurt by all the non-DIII teams on the back half of their schedule?
I don't think that we will see any changes in the OWP/OOWP outside the impact the teams that Wesley play have their data included.

UMHB plays no one outside the ASC and so will be around .500 for both.

Unfortunately, ETBU, HSU, Louisiana College, McMurry, Sul Ross and TLU could have boosted the OWP of the conference with wins.

DutchHawk

Quote from: TC on October 13, 2009, 05:02:30 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 13, 2009, 12:47:45 AM
Who are the 4 #1s that the brackets get built around?

#1 - East - Mount Union
#2 - North - UW-Whitewater
#3 - South - Mary Hardin-Baylor
#4 - West - Winner of this Saturday's St. John's/St. Thomas game

Talent-wise, I think St. Thomas is the best non-WIAC team in the West.  Their recent struggles against St. John's have been well-documented and they haven't had the recent playoff success that Linfield and Central have, but if they can beat SJU (and both teams win out), they will have the resume of a #1/#2 seed.

If SJU beats St. Thomas (and both teams win out), I think they pretty clearly become the 4th #1 with the normal MUC/UW-W machinations that that entails.  And I really hope it happens, but I think they are decided underdogs on Saturday against USTd.  Ugh, it sucks to write that.

Seems to make sense, although if Central runs the table you can't put them lower than West 2 seed. SOS is higher than Linfields at the moment, and Central still has better teams on the schedule.
30 IIAC Championships
20 Division III Playoff Appearances

Ralph Turner

Quote from: DutchHawk on October 14, 2009, 12:20:08 AM
Quote from: TC on October 13, 2009, 05:02:30 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 13, 2009, 12:47:45 AM
Who are the 4 #1s that the brackets get built around?

#1 - East - Mount Union
#2 - North - UW-Whitewater
#3 - South - Mary Hardin-Baylor
#4 - West - Winner of this Saturday's St. John's/St. Thomas game

Talent-wise, I think St. Thomas is the best non-WIAC team in the West.  Their recent struggles against St. John's have been well-documented and they haven't had the recent playoff success that Linfield and Central have, but if they can beat SJU (and both teams win out), they will have the resume of a #1/#2 seed.

If SJU beats St. Thomas (and both teams win out), I think they pretty clearly become the 4th #1 with the normal MUC/UW-W machinations that that entails.  And I really hope it happens, but I think they are decided underdogs on Saturday against USTd.  Ugh, it sucks to write that.

Seems to make sense, although if Central runs the table you can't put them lower than West 2 seed. SOS is higher than Linfields at the moment, and Central still has better teams on the schedule.

You guys in the contiguous portion of D3 forget about the "Geographical Proximity" clause, that there may be a "West Coast Sub-bracket" with West Region #2/3 Linfield playing #3/4 Oxy in the first round.

DutchHawk

Nah Ralph, thats the assumption I am used to.
30 IIAC Championships
20 Division III Playoff Appearances

Ralph Turner

Quote from: DutchHawk on October 14, 2009, 05:12:32 PM
Nah Ralph, thats the assumption I am used to.
I think that Central still gets a #2 or a #3 bid.

The Regional Rankings after week #8 should help us sort this out.   :)

DutchHawk

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 14, 2009, 06:31:46 PM
Quote from: DutchHawk on October 14, 2009, 05:12:32 PM
Nah Ralph, thats the assumption I am used to.
I think that Central still gets a #2 or a #3 bid.

The Regional Rankings after week #8 should help us sort this out.   :)

I was wondering when those came out! We have to dominate the rest of our schedule first. Four games to go!
30 IIAC Championships
20 Division III Playoff Appearances

DutchFan2004

Quote from: TC on October 13, 2009, 05:02:30 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 13, 2009, 12:47:45 AM
Who are the 4 #1s that the brackets get built around?

#1 - East - Mount Union
#2 - North - UW-Whitewater
#3 - South - Mary Hardin-Baylor
#4 - West - Winner of this Saturday's St. John's/St. Thomas game

Talent-wise, I think St. Thomas is the best non-WIAC team in the West.  Their recent struggles against St. John's have been well-documented and they haven't had the recent playoff success that Linfield and Central have, but if they can beat SJU (and both teams win out), they will have the resume of a #1/#2 seed.

If SJU beats St. Thomas (and both teams win out), I think they pretty clearly become the 4th #1 with the normal MUC/UW-W machinations that that entails.  And I really hope it happens, but I think they are decided underdogs on Saturday against USTd.  Ugh, it sucks to write that.

This is a huge game in the MIAC.  If SJU loses to UST that lets Bethel back into the picture as if they beat UST there would be a three way tie on top of the MIAC.  Then Central would have a shot at a number one seed. 
Play with Passion  Coach Ron Schipper

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: DutchFan2004 on October 14, 2009, 09:19:23 PM
Quote from: TC on October 13, 2009, 05:02:30 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on October 13, 2009, 12:47:45 AM
Who are the 4 #1s that the brackets get built around?

#1 - East - Mount Union
#2 - North - UW-Whitewater
#3 - South - Mary Hardin-Baylor
#4 - West - Winner of this Saturday's St. John's/St. Thomas game

Talent-wise, I think St. Thomas is the best non-WIAC team in the West.  Their recent struggles against St. John's have been well-documented and they haven't had the recent playoff success that Linfield and Central have, but if they can beat SJU (and both teams win out), they will have the resume of a #1/#2 seed.

If SJU beats St. Thomas (and both teams win out), I think they pretty clearly become the 4th #1 with the normal MUC/UW-W machinations that that entails.  And I really hope it happens, but I think they are decided underdogs on Saturday against USTd.  Ugh, it sucks to write that.

This is a huge game in the MIAC.  If SJU loses to UST that lets Bethel back into the picture as if they beat UST there would be a three way tie on top of the MIAC.  Then Central would have a shot at a number one seed. 

While the d3football.com poll has zero impact on the selections, it MAY also require a loss by Linfield.  AND you are assuming UWW will be sent to the North, but Wheaton (among others) may have a say in that.

IF they all win out, I'm guessing MUC, UWW, and UMHB are three of the #1s.  Who the fourth is is a crap-shoot currently, but totally affects where teams will play.

HScoach

The way the East Region looks right now, I'm guessing Mount is about 90+% sure to be moved there again.

A 10-0 Wheaton would be strong enough in my opinion to hold down the North, but they probably need Wabash and Case to also finish 10-0 and possibly a team of two out west to drop one.  If Wheaton is the only undefeated in the North and Whitewater/Linfield/SJU are all undefeated out west, I'm guessing Whitewater would be moved North as the #1 with Wheaton as the #2.  Thereby leaving SJU/Linfield in the West to hold down the top 2 seeds.
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: HScoach on October 15, 2009, 07:21:57 AM
The way the East Region looks right now, I'm guessing Mount is about 90+% sure to be moved there again.

A 10-0 Wheaton would be strong enough in my opinion to hold down the North, but they probably need Wabash and Case to also finish 10-0 and possibly a team of two out west to drop one.  If Wheaton is the only undefeated in the North and Whitewater/Linfield/SJU are all undefeated out west, I'm guessing Whitewater would be moved North as the #1 with Wheaton as the #2.  Thereby leaving SJU/Linfield in the West to hold down the top 2 seeds.

I agree!

Knightstalker

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 15, 2009, 08:10:13 AM
Quote from: HScoach on October 15, 2009, 07:21:57 AM
The way the East Region looks right now, I'm guessing Mount is about 90+% sure to be moved there again.

A 10-0 Wheaton would be strong enough in my opinion to hold down the North, but they probably need Wabash and Case to also finish 10-0 and possibly a team of two out west to drop one.  If Wheaton is the only undefeated in the North and Whitewater/Linfield/SJU are all undefeated out west, I'm guessing Whitewater would be moved North as the #1 with Wheaton as the #2.  Thereby leaving SJU/Linfield in the West to hold down the top 2 seeds.

I agree!

I think the only other team that has a chance to be East #1 is Wesley, but that depends on how the rest of the south plays out and if Wesley wins out.

"In the end we will survive rather than perish not because we accumulate comfort and luxury but because we accumulate wisdom"  Colonel Jack Jacobs US Army (Ret).

theoriginalupstate

Quote from: HScoach on October 15, 2009, 07:21:57 AM
The way the East Region looks right now, I'm guessing Mount is about 90+% sure to be moved there again.

A 10-0 Wheaton would be strong enough in my opinion to hold down the North, but they probably need Wabash and Case to also finish 10-0 and possibly a team of two out west to drop one.  If Wheaton is the only undefeated in the North and Whitewater/Linfield/SJU are all undefeated out west, I'm guessing Whitewater would be moved North as the #1 with Wheaton as the #2.  Thereby leaving SJU/Linfield in the West to hold down the top 2 seeds.

Unless there is some miraculous upset, I see them in the East as well  :-\