TOP 25

[DutchFan2004]

Who are the 4 #1s that the brackets get built around?

#1 - East - Mount Union
#2 - North - UW-Whitewater
#3 - South - Mary Hardin-Baylor
#4 - West - Winner of this Saturday's St. John's/St. Thomas game

Talent-wise, I think St. Thomas is the best non-WIAC team in the West.  Their recent struggles against St. John's have been well-documented and they haven't had the recent playoff success that Linfield and Central have, but if they can beat SJU (and both teams win out), they will have the resume of a #1/#2 seed.

If SJU beats St. Thomas (and both teams win out), I think they pretty clearly become the 4th #1 with the normal MUC/UW-W machinations that that entails.  And I really hope it happens, but I think they are decided underdogs on Saturday against USTd.  Ugh, it sucks to write that.

This is a huge game in the MIAC.  If SJU loses to UST that lets Bethel back into the picture as if they beat UST there would be a three way tie on top of the MIAC.  Then Central would have a shot at a number one seed. 

While the d3football.com poll has zero impact on the selections, it MAY also require a loss by Linfield.  AND you are assuming UWW will be sent to the North, but Wheaton (among others) may have a say in that.

IF they all win out, I'm guessing MUC, UWW, and UMHB are three of the #1s.  Who the fourth is is a crap-shoot currently, but totally affects where teams will play.

I did not say that Central would get it I said that they would have a shot.  Central has been closing the gap points wise with Linfield.  With 4 weeks left and only 11 points behind they only need to garner 3 points a week to overtake Linfield in the top 25 poll.  As mentioned the top 25 poll has 0 to do with the seedings.  The Regional poll will have much to say so I know there is not lock.  I did not mean to imply it.  With the conjecture I through out another scenario for people to chew on.  MUC is not a lock to go 10-0 either as last week almost proved. 

[K-Mack]

Who are the 4 #1s that the brackets get built around?

#1 - East - Mount Union
#2 - North - UW-Whitewater
#3 - South - Mary Hardin-Baylor
#4 - West - Winner of this Saturday's St. John's/St. Thomas game

Talent-wise, I think St. Thomas is the best non-WIAC team in the West.  Their recent struggles against St. John's have been well-documented and they haven't had the recent playoff success that Linfield and Central have, but if they can beat SJU (and both teams win out), they will have the resume of a #1/#2 seed.

If SJU beats St. Thomas (and both teams win out), I think they pretty clearly become the 4th #1 with the normal MUC/UW-W machinations that that entails.  And I really hope it happens, but I think they are decided underdogs on Saturday against USTd.  Ugh, it sucks to write that.

If you saw me reveal my top 10, you know that i actually agree with you, at least at the moment, re: St. Thomas, but I'm eager to hear what you base this on.

I think it's waaaay too early to be projecting No. 1 seeds.

Even if you operate under the assumption the UWW, MUC and UMHB are the No. 1s, UWW and MUC offer enough geographic flexibility to allow someone like Wesley to be the East's No. 1 (even though they're techinically South, distance-wise they could make this happen). Wheaton and St. John's/St. Thomas play enough comp where they could stumble. Linfield could creep in. Who knows.

Or you could end up being right.

[K-Mack]

http://www.sctimes.com/article/20091013/SPORTS/110130028/Rajkowski-column--Polls-can-often-be-a-guessing-game

Knee-jerk "AFCA Poll is better" comment at the end of Frank Rajkowski's column today in the StCloud paper.

Click and enjoy.

(I think that the D3football.com is more accurate, JMHO).

This attitude is common, but has always bemused me.  While coaches potentially are better prepared to evaluate teams than most, think about it - any coach who during the season knows much more than diddley-squat about any team not on his schedule IS NOT DOING THE JOB HE'S PAID FOR!

But, then again, most 'coach's ballots' are not cast by the coach anyway!

Wise words.

I think the AFCA poll traditionally favors teams with better records and D3 favors teams with better schedules. When we go back and look at the end of the seasons though, I don't know that there's conclusive evidence that our way is that much better. It's just our way.

[DutchHawk]

Kmack -  Call me a homer but I was surprised to see your Top 10 have Central at 11, I think Monmouth would be slightly overrated at 5, beating Wartburg has obviously not been that huge of a win for them as Wartburg has been very less than impressive this year.

[HSC85]

K-Mack,

Good point about the two polls.  I think of them as the difference in the AP poll and the Coach's poll for D I teams.  After you pointed out the difference, I can see clearly why some teams are higher in a given poll.

[K-Mack]

The way the East Region looks right now, I'm guessing Mount is about 90+% sure to be moved there again.

A 10-0 Wheaton would be strong enough in my opinion to hold down the North, but they probably need Wabash and Case to also finish 10-0 and possibly a team of two out west to drop one.  If Wheaton is the only undefeated in the North and Whitewater/Linfield/SJU are all undefeated out west, I'm guessing Whitewater would be moved North as the #1 with Wheaton as the #2.  Thereby leaving SJU/Linfield in the West to hold down the top 2 seeds.

I agree!

I think the only other team that has a chance to be East #1 is Wesley, but that depends on how the rest of the south plays out and if Wesley wins out.

It's a pretty solid bet that they will.

Lake Erie plays Salisbury this week, and lost 52-49 to Ohio Dominican, so we'll get an idea of which of their remaining opponents, if any, is a threat to beat the Wolverines.

But they're pretty talented. I don't know how great the O-Line or if they can stay focused/motivated/disciplined, but otherwise they basically have it all.

[TC]

Who are the 4 #1s that the brackets get built around?

#1 - East - Mount Union
#2 - North - UW-Whitewater
#3 - South - Mary Hardin-Baylor
#4 - West - Winner of this Saturday's St. John's/St. Thomas game

Talent-wise, I think St. Thomas is the best non-WIAC team in the West.  Their recent struggles against St. John's have been well-documented and they haven't had the recent playoff success that Linfield and Central have, but if they can beat SJU (and both teams win out), they will have the resume of a #1/#2 seed.

If SJU beats St. Thomas (and both teams win out), I think they pretty clearly become the 4th #1 with the normal MUC/UW-W machinations that that entails.  And I really hope it happens, but I think they are decided underdogs on Saturday against USTd.  Ugh, it sucks to write that.

If you saw me reveal my top 10, you know that i actually agree with you, at least at the moment, re: St. Thomas, but I'm eager to hear what you base this on.

I think it's waaaay too early to be projecting No. 1 seeds.

Even if you operate under the assumption the UWW, MUC and UMHB are the No. 1s, UWW and MUC offer enough geographic flexibility to allow someone like Wesley to be the East's No. 1 (even though they're techinically South, distance-wise they could make this happen). Wheaton and St. John's/St. Thomas play enough comp where they could stumble. Linfield could creep in. Who knows.

Or you could end up being right.

At this point, it's entirely a hunch. 

First, I agree with your thinking that the Johnnies are overrated at #6 in the D3Football.com poll.  You have them at #7, I probably would have them a few notches lower than that.  That said, the team that wins on Saturday will have a clear (but not guarenteed) path to an undefeated record with wins over St. Thomas/St. John's, Bethel (nearly beat Wheaton), Concordia (beat Willamette) and, in St. John's case, two wins over underwhelming teams from the WIAC.  Like it or not, that's the resume of a #1/#2 team come playoff time.  With St. John's name recognition, I would be very comfortable saying they will be a #1 seed if they go 10-0, though there are always surprises come Selection Sunday. 

My preview of St. Thomas is up at JohnnieFootball.com.  To put it mildly, they have studs all over the field.  It's difficult to put much stock in statistics from five D3 football games--especially when two of them are against Macalester and Hamline--but the Tommies are putting up video game-type numbers this season, especially running the ball.  They had the best running back in the MIAC last year and he looks better this year.  They had the best freshman in the MIAC last year and he looks better this year.  They had the best center in D3 last year and he's still there this year.  They lived through the ups and downs of a freshman quarterback last year and it's paying off this year.

On the defensive side of the ball they have D2 and D1 transfers all over the field.  I know, I know, there's a reason why they're playing D3 now and pedigree doesn't always equal production, but damn, they sure are making some plays this season.  St. Thomas has always had the resources to draw top-notch talent.  Now it looks like they're actually getting that talent on campus and on the field.

That's not to say St. John's can't or won't win this game.  I really, really hope they do.  Like every year, they have a lot of very good football players on their team.  St. Thomas fielding a Top 15 team is "man bites dog", while St. John's fielding a Top 15 team is "dog bites man".  And after the ridiculous finishes the Johnnies have had this year against Bethel and UW-Eau Claire, it's ridiculous to pick against them with much certainty.

Sorry for the rambling post, but that's why I'm looking forward to this game and that's my thinking behind calling St. Thomas the most talented non-WIAC team in the West.  While I don't think either of these teams is one of the 4 best in D3, I do think the winner ends up 10-0 and likely locks up the final #1 seed.

[redswarm81]

First, . . . the Johnnies are overrated at #6 in the D3Football.com poll.  . . .  That said, the team that wins on Saturday will have a clear (but not guarenteed) path to an undefeated record with wins over St. Thomas/St. John's, Bethel (nearly beat Wheaton), Concordia (beat Willamette) and, in St. John's case, two wins over underwhelming teams from the WIAC.  Like it or not, that's the resume of a #1/#2 team come playoff time.  With St. John's name recognition, I would be very comfortable saying they will be a #1 seed if they go 10-0, though there are always surprises come Selection Sunday.  . . .

. . . St. Thomas fielding a Top 15 team is "man bites dog", while St. John's fielding a Top 15 team is "dog bites man".  And after the ridiculous finishes the Johnnies have had this year against Bethel and UW-Eau Claire, it's ridiculous to pick against them with much certainty.

. . . I'm looking forward to this game and that's my thinking behind calling St. Thomas the most talented non-WIAC team in the West.  While I don't think either of these teams is one of the 4 best in D3, I do think the winner ends up 10-0 and likely locks up the final #1 seed.

So St. John's is now 7-0 (6-0-1, really), three plays away from being 4-3 (4-2-1, really).
5-2 Bethel, two plays from being 7-0, appears by the score to have had nearly as tough a time with 2-4 Hamline as it had with Wheaton and St. John's.
5-1 (5-0-1, really) St. Thomas at Bethel looks like it could be a heck of a game.

Again, if I'm a poll voter who has St. John's at no. 6, I don't see how I can put St. Thomas or Bethel too far from the top 10.

[Pat Coleman]

I can tell you from having seen the game that St. Thomas was lucky as all hell to be in a position to take this game to overtime.

[TC]

Interested on your thoughts regarding Greg Morse, Pat.  He was one of St. Thomas's top recruits last season and the rumor is St. John's wanted him badly.  I hadn't seen him play before today, but judging by the success that St. Thomas in general and Waldvogel in particular have had I thought that he would be impressive.

After watching him today, I can guess why he has 7 TD passes (talented receiver(s?), weak opposition) and 6 INTs (no idea where the ball was going on passes longer than 10 yards).  Besides their QB, I thought St. Thomas looked like a pretty damn good team today.  But unless it was an uncharacteristically bad day for Morse, I can't see the Tommies doing much damage if they're able to get into the playoffs.

Concur? 

[Pat Coleman]

Agreed. Morse didn't look good at all. Adam and I wondered if he were unnerved by the situation, but man, it seemed like he never quite got it together. He will need to perform better to get anywhere.

Morse might not have hit more than two receivers on the money the entire day. The completion percentage is misleading.

[TC]

The majority of his passes were swings and screens to Walvogel, of course.  It's easy to see why Waldvogel had 5 times as many receptions as anyone else on his team (and about half of the team's receptions) coming into the game.  Those plays might work against less athletic defenses, but I can't imagine they'll get it done against playoff teams.

[Pat Coleman]

Last week, though, he was hitting receivers downfield in those situations. And today he wasn't even always hitting the little flare and swing passes accurately.

[redswarm81]

I can tell you from having seen the game that St. Thomas was lucky as all hell to be in a position to take this game to overtime.

Was the Tommies' luck in this game greater than the Johnnies' luck thus far this season?

[TC]

When it's the Tommies, it's luck.  When it's the Johnnies, it's magic.