TOP 25

[TC]

How odd if the MIAC had knocked SJU down a peg and they still rebounded to win the conference?

Ha, if any St. John's fan said this BEFORE playing Carleton to decide the conference title next weekend they would be hen-pecked off this board for being an arrogant a-hole.  But I know what you're saying, the Johnnies are very fortunate to be in the position they are in after dropping two games and struggling with St. Olaf and St. Thomas the way they did.  And upon rereading what you wrote, I see that I misread it.  Most likely because I'm an arrogant Johnnie a-hole.

With the disclaimer that I haven't seen anyone besides MIAC teams, UW-River Falls, and East Texas Baptist this season, I feel confident that St. John's (and Concordia and maybe Carleton and possibly Bethel and Gustavus and Augsburg) would be able to beat some of the teams near the bottom of the Top 25 more than half the time.  (Monmouth and Redlands, for instance, going off of past playoff results when those teams had similar records and rankings.) 

That said, I'm also of the opinion that if the Top 25 was an accurate representation of who the best 25 teams are (based on who would beat who) there would be about 5 WIAC teams in the poll.  At a certain point I guess you can't justify listing a 4-6 WIAC team over a 9-1 team that didn't play anyone...

In the end, it doesn't much matter because we have The Tournament.

[ADL70]

Ralph...not to nit pick...but Wabash beat Oberlin 60-7...not 27-7.

My bad!  I got the "27-7" off the Wooster page on this site!

http://www.d3football.com/school/WOO/2008

Thanks! 


Wooster did beat Oberlin 27-7

Maybe Wooster loaded the score wrong!

Boink! 

[redswarm81]

I have a (granted, very trivial) question about #20 and #21: Franklin and Trine.  Since Trine is undefeated, while Franklin's only loss is at Trine, they have two common opponents (Defiance and Manchester) that Franklin dispatched by a combined 61-34 but Trine downed by a combined 83-27, and both have pretty mediocre schedules (signature wins probably being Franklin over RHIT [and perhaps BW, but that was before Trine beat them, so IMO should be discounted] and Trine over Adrian), why is Franklin ahead of Trine?

As I said, trivial - but these sort of obscure anomalies pique my interest!

The McMillan Paradox.

Not all evaluation criteria are alike.  Head-to-head results are the most directly relevant: (substantial, meaningful) advantage Trine.

Common opponent results are the next most relevant, and those come out pretty much a push.  Trine retains its advantage.

I don't see how Trine's close wins v. unrelated opponents overcomes the head-to-head and common opponent analysis when comparing Trine to Franklin.

[Pat Coleman]

Because the poll is a current snapshot, and what has Trine done lately? That's what I'm looking at.

I'm also looking at the fact that it was a three-point game on Trine's home field, and trying to figure out what that means on a neutral field.

[bbaddict]

I suspect that Willamette is the most underated team....and will make a big statement in the playoffs....and may have not even peaked as yet.

From your lips to God's ears -- sure hope you're right.  I'd rather Willamette be under rated and perform better than be over rated! 

[HScoach]

I suspect that Willamette is the most underated team....and will make a big statement in the playoffs....and may have not even peaked as yet.

That might be the case, but I still expect Whitewater to come rolling out of the West Region. 

[muledaddy]

Mates,

If Ithaca whacks Cortland on Saturday, do the Mules take a hike to the East on Sunday, yes,no, or maybe,

and why?

[Ralph Turner]

Mates,

If Ithaca whacks Cortland on Saturday, do the Mules take a hike to the East on Sunday, yes,no, or maybe,

and why?

Yes, a natural #1 in geographic proximity to 7 other schools to comprise one bracket.

[redswarm81]

Mates,

If Ithaca whacks Cortland on Saturday, do the Mules take a hike to the East on Sunday, yes,no, or maybe,

and why?

Yes, a natural #1 in geographic proximity to 7 other schools to comprise one bracket.

Assuming Moravian cooperates.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Mates,

If Ithaca whacks Cortland on Saturday, do the Mules take a hike to the East on Sunday, yes,no, or maybe,

and why?

I'll say maybe, bordering on no.  With FIVE undefeated teams in the North (including #1, #2, and #3 in the poll (though officially that is irrelevant), some thinning may be necessary.  I'm betting on MUC going East (again) if Cortland loses.

[ADL70]

I'm with Mr Y here, with all those unbeatens a north to east move seems almost ineveitable.

[theoriginalupstate]

Mates,

If Ithaca whacks Cortland on Saturday, do the Mules take a hike to the East on Sunday, yes,no, or maybe,

and why?

I'll say maybe, bordering on no.  With FIVE undefeated teams in the North (including #1, #2, and #3 in the poll (though officially that is irrelevant), some thinning may be necessary.  I'm betting on MUC going East (again) if Cortland loses.

I think MUC going "East" is going to happen regardless of the Cortland outcome due to the same reasons you pointed out and the fact that there is no strong #2 in the region due to the RPI loss...

[muledaddy]

Mates,
           Assuming the Mules get by Moravian, think Ralph has  hit the nail on the head,

a geographic natural sends the Mules Eastbound. I know if I was in the East, I would want this scenario

instead of another dose of MUC coming to town.....at least one is an unknown quantity.....

[redswarm81]

Mates,

If Ithaca whacks Cortland on Saturday, do the Mules take a hike to the East on Sunday, yes,no, or maybe,

and why?

I'll say maybe, bordering on no.  With FIVE undefeated teams in the North (including #1, #2, and #3 in the poll (though officially that is irrelevant), some thinning may be necessary.  I'm betting on MUC going East (again) if Cortland loses.

I think MUC going "East" is going to happen regardless of the Cortland outcome due to the same reasons you pointed out and the fact that there is no strong #2 in the region due to the RPI loss...

Mates,
           Assuming the Mules get by Moravian, think Ralph has  hit the nail on the head,

a geographic natural sends the Mules Eastbound. I know if I was in the East, I would want this scenario

instead of another dose of MUC coming to town.....at least one is an unknown quantity.....

If Cortland wins on Saturday, I don't see how the Selection Committee could justify moving either Muhlenberg or Mount Union to the East as a number 1 seed.

It's possible that both Muhlenberg and Millsaps "deserve" to be number 1 seeds.

It's also possible that Mount Union, North Central, and Wabash "deserve" to be number 1 seeds.

But it would be improper to demote a 10-0 Cortland St. to a number 2 seed, to make room for an out-of-region team.

If Ithaca wins on Saturday and Muhlenberg wins on Saturday, I also agree with Ralph - the geography makes too much sense too easily to be overlooked.

[K-Mack]

I have a (granted, very trivial) question about #20 and #21: Franklin and Trine.  Since Trine is undefeated, while Franklin's only loss is at Trine, they have two common opponents (Defiance and Manchester) that Franklin dispatched by a combined 61-34 but Trine downed by a combined 83-27, and both have pretty mediocre schedules (signature wins probably being Franklin over RHIT [and perhaps BW, but that was before Trine beat them, so IMO should be discounted] and Trine over Adrian), why is Franklin ahead of Trine?

As I said, trivial - but these sort of obscure anomalies pique my interest!

I would bet name recognition also has something to do with it.  Plus the HCAC has shown pretty well with Franklin and Mt. St. Joe recently.  When was the last time a MIAA team has made any noise in the playoffs?

Albion in 94?

I think h2h should trump the comparative values of other things, but I also don't much by the +3 home field argument either, which would suggest Trine and Franklin are even. Also the circumstances of that game were a little flukey.

In any case, I think Trine should be ahead. But others don't agree.