TOP 25

Started by short, July 11, 2008, 10:56:29 PM

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K-Mack

Quote from: TC on November 10, 2008, 08:50:12 AM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 10, 2008, 12:49:13 AM
How odd if the MIAC had knocked SJU down a peg and they still rebounded to win the conference?

Ha, if any St. John's fan said this BEFORE playing Carleton to decide the conference title next weekend they would be hen-pecked off this board for being an arrogant a-hole.  But I know what you're saying, the Johnnies are very fortunate to be in the position they are in after dropping two games and struggling with St. Olaf and St. Thomas the way they did.  And upon rereading what you wrote, I see that I misread it.  Most likely because I'm an arrogant Johnnie a-hole.

With the disclaimer that I haven't seen anyone besides MIAC teams, UW-River Falls, and East Texas Baptist this season, I feel confident that St. John's (and Concordia and maybe Carleton and possibly Bethel and Gustavus and Augsburg) would be able to beat some of the teams near the bottom of the Top 25 more than half the time.  (Monmouth and Redlands, for instance, going off of past playoff results when those teams had similar records and rankings.) 

That said, I'm also of the opinion that if the Top 25 was an accurate representation of who the best 25 teams are (based on who would beat who) there would be about 5 WIAC teams in the poll.  At a certain point I guess you can't justify listing a 4-6 WIAC team over a 9-1 team that didn't play anyone...

In the end, it doesn't much matter because we have The Tournament.

Wise words all around.

I have said that same thing before about the WIAC ... I think describing the top 25 as part science, part art. That you might not bet on Monmouth against UW-Oshkosh, but you would rank them and not the other.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

Quote from: K-Mack on November 12, 2008, 03:42:34 AM
Quote from: hscoach on November 10, 2008, 08:43:59 AM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 10, 2008, 01:37:22 AM
I have a (granted, very trivial) question about #20 and #21: Franklin and Trine.  Since Trine is undefeated, while Franklin's only loss is at Trine, they have two common opponents (Defiance and Manchester) that Franklin dispatched by a combined 61-34 but Trine downed by a combined 83-27, and both have pretty mediocre schedules (signature wins probably being Franklin over RHIT [and perhaps BW, but that was before Trine beat them, so IMO should be discounted] and Trine over Adrian), why is Franklin ahead of Trine?

As I said, trivial - but these sort of obscure anomalies pique my interest! ;D

I would bet name recognition also has something to do with it.  Plus the HCAC has shown pretty well with Franklin and Mt. St. Joe recently.  When was the last time a MIAA team has made any noise in the playoffs?

Albion in 94?

I think h2h should trump the comparative values of other things, but I also don't much by the +3 home field argument either, which would suggest Trine and Franklin are even. Also the circumstances of that game were a little flukey.

In any case, I think Trine should be ahead. But others don't agree.

Hah, wrote that before reading these:

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 10, 2008, 10:59:32 AM
Quote from: redswarm81 on November 10, 2008, 10:57:36 AM

The McMillan Paradox.

Not all evaluation criteria are alike.  Head-to-head results are the most directly relevant: (substantial, meaningful) advantage Trine.

Common opponent results are the next most relevant, and those come out pretty much a push.  Trine retains its advantage.

I don't see how Trine's close wins v. unrelated opponents overcomes the head-to-head and common opponent analysis when comparing Trine to Franklin.

Because the poll is a current snapshot, and what has Trine done lately? That's what I'm looking at.

I'm also looking at the fact that it was a three-point game on Trine's home field, and trying to figure out what that means on a neutral field.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

Quote from: redswarm81 on November 11, 2008, 08:38:43 PM
Quote from: Upstate on November 11, 2008, 07:40:40 AM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on November 10, 2008, 10:44:22 PM
Quote from: muledaddy on November 10, 2008, 10:03:12 PM
Mates,

If Ithaca whacks Cortland on Saturday, do the Mules take a hike to the East on Sunday, yes,no, or maybe,

and why?

I'll say maybe, bordering on no.  With FIVE undefeated teams in the North (including #1, #2, and #3 in the poll (though officially that is irrelevant), some thinning may be necessary.  I'm betting on MUC going East (again) if Cortland loses.

I think MUC going "East" is going to happen regardless of the Cortland outcome due to the same reasons you pointed out and the fact that there is no strong #2 in the region due to the RPI loss...

Quote from: muledaddy on November 11, 2008, 08:23:52 PM
Mates,
           Assuming the Mules get by Moravian, think Ralph has  hit the nail on the head,

a geographic natural sends the Mules Eastbound. I know if I was in the East, I would want this scenario

instead of another dose of MUC coming to town.....at least one is an unknown quantity.....

If Cortland wins on Saturday, I don't see how the Selection Committee could justify moving either Muhlenberg or Mount Union to the East as a number 1 seed.

It's possible that both Muhlenberg and Millsaps "deserve" to be number 1 seeds.

It's also possible that Mount Union, North Central, and Wabash "deserve" to be number 1 seeds.

But it would be improper to demote a 10-0 Cortland St. to a number 2 seed, to make room for an out-of-region team.

If Ithaca wins on Saturday and Muhlenberg wins on Saturday, I also agree with Ralph - the geography makes too much sense too easily to be overlooked.

I agree with Red here ... but you all make good points.

It may be that there is no perfect answer.

It might also be that a bunch of teams lose Saturday and sort things out for us.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

HScoach

Isn't it great to be discussing where playoff teams are going to be seeded instead of the crap we have in D1?

YEAH!  PLAYOFFS!  ;D
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

Bob.Gregg

Quote from: K-Mack on November 12, 2008, 03:48:57 AM
It might also be that a bunch of teams lose Saturday and sort things out for us.

OR, confuse them even more....
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

labart96

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 12, 2008, 10:06:38 AM
Quote from: K-Mack on November 12, 2008, 03:48:57 AM
It might also be that a bunch of teams lose Saturday and sort things out for us.

OR, confuse them even more....

what that said....and then some!

Ralph Turner

1   Mount Union (25)   
2   North Central (Ill.)   
3   Wabash lost vs. DePauw
4   Millsaps   
5   UW-Whitewater
6   Muhlenberg  lost at Moravian
7   Cortland State  lost vs. Ithaca
8   Mary Hardin-Baylor
9   Wesley
10   Willamette   
11   Hardin-Simmons   
12   Case Western Reserve   
13   UW-Stevens Point   
14   Otterbein   
15   Occidental   
16   Salisbury   
17   Ithaca  beat Cortland State
18   Montclair State    lost at Kean
19   Washington and Jefferson   
20   Franklin   
21   Trine   
22   Monmouth   
23   Christopher Newport   
24   Hobart   
25   Redlands lost vs Cal Lutheran

Ralph Turner

#307


#   School (1st votes)Reg seasonPts   Prev.Week #11Outcome in the playoffs
1   Mount Union (25)10-0 6251   Def Marietta 49-0Def Randolph-Macon 56-0, Hobart 42-7
2   North Central (Ill.)10-0 5872Def Elmhurst 35-28Def  Thomas More 44-23, Lost to Franklin 28-38
3   Millsaps10-0553 4Def Birmingham-Southern 31-14 Def. LaGrange 51-26, lost to W&J 20-35
4   UW-Whitewater9-1  545  5   Def UW-Platteville 52-13Def #25 St. John's 37-7, Won at Willamette 30-27
5   UMHB 9-1 4958   Def Sul Ross State 42-20 Def #8 Hardin-Simmons 38-35, #7 Wesley 46-14
6   Willamette10-048110Def Menlo 28-3 Def #13 Occidental 48-33, lost to UWW 27-30
7   Wesley8-14729Def Gallaudet 55-7Won at #14 Muhlenberg  20-0, lost at UMHB 14-46
8   Hardin-Simmons9-144111Open DateLost at #5 UMHB 35-38
9   UW-Stevens Point9-142613Def UW-La Crosse 21-7 Lost to Wartburg 21-26
10   Otterbein9-137214Def John Carroll 20-17Lost to #18 Franklin 62-45
11   CWRU10-037112Def Washington U. 17-0Lost to #15 Wabash 17-20
12   Ithaca9-132117Def No. 16 Cortland State 35-13Lost to Curry 21-26
13   Occidental9-030915Def Whittier 48-14Lost at #6 Willamette  33-48
14   Muhlenberg9-12956Lost to Moravian 27-24Lost to #7 Wesley 0-20
15   Wabash9-12793Lost to DePauw 36-14Won at #11 Case Western Reserve 20-17, lost to #25 Wheaton 28-59
16   Cortland State9-12607Lost to No. 12 Ithaca 35-13Def Plymouth State  31-14, Curry 42-0
17   Salisbury8-219216Def Frostburg State 55-14Won at Moravian (ECAC) 21-17
18   Franklin9-1168 20Def Hanover 34-0Won at #10 Otterbein 62-45, at #2 N.Central 38-28
19   W&J9-116319Def Waynesburg 42-9Def  #21 CNU  35-29, won at #3 Millsaps 35-20
20   Trine10-015321Def Ky. Christian 34-12Lost to #25 Wheaton (Ill.)  0-14
21   CNU8-113023Def Ferrum 13-10Lost at #19 W&J 29-35
22   Monmouth10-010622Open DateDef Aurora 42-13, lost to Wartburg 28-30
23   Hobart8-110024Def Rochester 10-7Def Lycoming  33-15, lost at #1 MUC 7-42
24   St. John's8-259-- Def Carleton 14-10Lost at #4 UW-Whitewater  7-37
25   Wheaton (Ill.)8-251--Def Carthage 51-24Won at #21 Trine  14-0, at #15 Wabash 59-28

K-Mack

Well at least the top 7 is still alive ... although we lose two of those Saturday.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

Ralph Turner

#309
Updated thru November 29th.  (Corrections are appreciated.)



#   School (1st votes)Reg seasonPts   Prev.Week #11Outcome in the playoffs
1   Mount Union (25)10-0 6251   Def Marietta 49-0Def Randolph-Macon 56-0, Hobart 42-7
2   North Central (Ill.)10-0 5872Def Elmhurst 35-28Def  Thomas More 44-23, Lost to Franklin 28-38
3   Millsaps10-0553 4Def Birmingham-Southern 31-14 Def. LaGrange 51-26, lost to W&J 20-35
4   UW-Whitewater9-1  545  5   Def UW-Platteville 52-13Def #25 St. John's 37-7, Won at Willamette 30-27
5   UMHB 9-1 4958   Def Sul Ross State 42-20 Def #8 Hardin-Simmons 38-35, #7 Wesley 46-14
6   Willamette10-048110Def Menlo 28-3 Def #13 Occidental 48-33, lost to UWW 27-30
7   Wesley8-14729Def Gallaudet 55-7Won at #14 Muhlenberg  20-0, lost at UMHB 14-46
8   Hardin-Simmons9-144111Open DateLost at #5 UMHB 35-38
9   UW-Stevens Point9-142613Def UW-La Crosse 21-7 Lost to Wartburg 21-26
10   Otterbein9-137214Def John Carroll 20-17Lost to #18 Franklin 62-45
11   CWRU10-037112Def Washington U. 17-0Lost to #15 Wabash 17-20
12   Ithaca9-132117Def No. 16 Cortland State 35-13Lost to Curry 21-26
13   Occidental9-030915Def Whittier 48-14Lost at #6 Willamette  33-48
14   Muhlenberg9-12956Lost to Moravian 27-24Lost to #7 Wesley 0-20
15   Wabash9-12793Lost to DePauw 36-14Won at #11 Case Western Reserve 20-17, lost to #25 Wheaton 28-59
16   Cortland State9-12607Lost to No. 12 Ithaca 35-13Def Plymouth State  31-14, Curry 42-0
17   Salisbury8-219216Def Frostburg State 55-14Won at Moravian (ECAC) 21-17
18   Franklin9-1168 20Def Hanover 34-0Won at #10 Otterbein 62-45, at #2 N.Central 38-28
19   W&J9-116319Def Waynesburg 42-9Def  #21 CNU  35-29, won at #3 Millsaps 35-20
20   Trine10-015321Def Ky. Christian 34-12Lost to #25 Wheaton (Ill.)  0-14
21   CNU8-113023Def Ferrum 13-10Lost at #19 W&J 29-35
22   Monmouth10-010622Open DateDef Aurora 42-13, lost to Wartburg 28-30
23   Hobart8-110024Def Rochester 10-7Def Lycoming  33-15, lost at #1 MUC 7-42
24   St. John's8-259-- Def Carleton 14-10Lost at #4 UW-Whitewater  7-37
25   Wheaton (Ill.)8-251--Def Carthage 51-24Won at #21 Trine  14-0, at #15 Wabash 59-28

Legend:  Pool B bids are italicized.  CWRU and LaGrange are unranked.  Pool C bids are in bold.  Curry is unranked.

K-Mack

Ralph,
solid work as always. If no one else appreciates it, I do.

Looks like we have
16 at 1
25 at 18
19 at 5
UNR at 4

24 playoffs teams plus Salisbury were ranked ... not sure if that says a lot about the poll or the committee or means nothing.

It does remind me that even on our best day, the poll still wouldn't be able to rank 7 playoff teams :)
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

usee

K-Mack,

I posted this earlier this fall on the ATN board, but given your discussion I thought I would repost it here. I think it gives the D3 Poll more credibility (not that it needs it)

Quote from: USee on October 06, 2008, 12:38:12 PM
Another analysis I did, FWIW, is to look at the validity of the TOP 10 in the D3 poll. I looked at teams ranked in the TOP 10 of the D3 poll after week 1 of the poll (2003 through 2007). I looked to see where these teams were ranked after week 16 (which takes into account playoff performance) and how many of them ended up in the playoffs. Here is what I found:

2003:
6 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 week 16
8 out of 10 made playoffs

2004:
3 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
5 out of 10 made playoffs

2005:
6 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
8 out of 10 made playoffs

2006:
6 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
9 out of 10 made playoffs

2007:
7 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
7 out of 10 made playoffs


Ralph Turner

#312
Quote from: USee on December 04, 2008, 01:59:49 PM
K-Mack,

I posted this earlier this fall on the ATN board, but given your discussion I thought I would repost it here. I think it gives the D3 Poll more credibility (not that it needs it)

Quote from: USee on October 06, 2008, 12:38:12 PM
Another analysis I did, FWIW, is to look at the validity of the TOP 10 in the D3 poll. I looked at teams ranked in the TOP 10 of the D3 poll after week 1 of the poll (2003 through 2007). I looked to see where these teams were ranked after week 16 (which takes into account playoff performance) and how many of them ended up in the playoffs. Here is what I found:

2003:
6 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 week 16
8 out of 10 made playoffs

2004:
3 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
5 out of 10 made playoffs

2005:
6 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
8 out of 10 made playoffs

2006:
6 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
9 out of 10 made playoffs

2007:
7 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
7 out of 10 made playoffs


Great post...

One benefit that we get in D3 is that Pool C bids were expanded from 3 to 6 bids  in 2005.  The main place for discrepancy between "playoffs" and "Top 25" will be that those two "populations" are different.  The extra Pool C bids have made a difference because 3 of the 8 playoff teams left are Pool C bids, and maybe Wheaton and W&J don't make it 2004.    :)

#4 UWW, #7 HSU, and #10 Otterbein are Pool C bids, and were solid favorites to earn Pool C bids in 2008.  #8 Wesley is Pool B.

Ralph Turner

#313
Updated thru December 13th...



#   School (1st votes)Reg seasonPts   Prev.Week #11Outcome in the playoffs
1   Mount Union (25)10-0 6251   Def Marietta 49-0Def Randolph-Macon 56-0, #23 Hobart 42-7, #16 Cortland St 41-14, #25 Wheaton 45-24
2   North Central (Ill.)10-0 5872Def Elmhurst 35-28Def  Thomas More 44-23, lost to #18 Franklin 28-38
3   Millsaps10-0553 4Def Birmingham-Southern 31-14 Def. LaGrange 51-26, lost to #19 W&J 20-35
4   UW-Whitewater9-1  545  5   Def UW-Platteville 52-13Def #25 St. John's 37-7, won at #6 Willamette 30-27, def Wartburg 34-17, won at #5 UMHB 39-13
5   UMHB 9-1 4958   Def Sul Ross State 42-20 Def #8 Hardin-Simmons 38-35, #7 Wesley 46-14, #19 W&J 63-7, lost to #4 UWW 13-39
6   Willamette10-048110Def Menlo 28-3 Def #13 Occidental 48-33, lost to #4 UWW 27-30
7   Wesley8-14729Def Gallaudet 55-7Won at #14 Muhlenberg  20-0, lost at #5 UMHB 14-46
8   Hardin-Simmons9-144111Open DateLost at #5 UMHB 35-38
9   UW-Stevens Point9-142613Def UW-La Crosse 21-7 Lost to Wartburg 21-26
10   Otterbein9-137214Def John Carroll 20-17Lost to #18 Franklin 62-45
11   CWRU10-037112Def Washington U. 17-0Lost to #15 Wabash 17-20
12   Ithaca9-132117Def #16 Cortland State 35-13Lost to Curry 21-26
13   Occidental9-030915Def Whittier 48-14Lost at #6 Willamette  33-48
14   Muhlenberg9-12956Lost to Moravian 27-24Lost to #7 Wesley 0-20
15   Wabash9-12793Lost to DePauw 36-14Won at #11 Case Western Reserve 20-17, lost to #25 Wheaton 28-59
16   Cortland State9-12607Lost to No. 12 Ithaca 35-13Def Plymouth State  31-14, Curry 42-0, lost at MUC 14-41
17   Salisbury8-219216Def Frostburg State 55-14Won at Moravian (ECAC) 21-17
18   Franklin9-1168 20Def Hanover 34-0Won at #10 Otterbein 62-45, at #2 N.Central 38-28, lost to #25 Wheaton 28-45
19   W&J9-116319Def Waynesburg 42-9Def  #21 CNU  35-29, won at #3 Millsaps 35-20, lost at #5 UMHB 7-63
20   Trine10-015321Def Ky. Christian 34-12Lost to #25 Wheaton (Ill.)  0-14
21   CNU8-113023Def Ferrum 13-10Lost at #19 W&J 29-35
22   Monmouth10-010622Open DateDef Aurora 42-13, lost to Wartburg 28-30
23   Hobart8-110024Def Rochester 10-7Def Lycoming  33-15, lost at #1 MUC 7-42
24   St. John's8-259-- Def Carleton 14-10Lost at #4 UW-Whitewater  7-37
25   Wheaton (Ill.)8-251--Def Carthage 51-24Won at #21 Trine  14-0, at #15 Wabash 59-28, at #18 Franklin 45-28, lost at #1 MUC 24-45

usee

If you go back and look at the D3 poll from week #7 you have:

1. Mount Union
2. Wisconsin Whitewater
3. Mary Hardin Baylor
4. Wheaton

That was right before Wheaton went on a 2 week holiday that it took the rest of the season and 3 rounds of the playoffs to recover from!  ;) ;D

All is right with the world now though.  ;)