TOP 25

[K-Mack]

How odd if the MIAC had knocked SJU down a peg and they still rebounded to win the conference?

Ha, if any St. John's fan said this BEFORE playing Carleton to decide the conference title next weekend they would be hen-pecked off this board for being an arrogant a-hole.  But I know what you're saying, the Johnnies are very fortunate to be in the position they are in after dropping two games and struggling with St. Olaf and St. Thomas the way they did.  And upon rereading what you wrote, I see that I misread it.  Most likely because I'm an arrogant Johnnie a-hole.

With the disclaimer that I haven't seen anyone besides MIAC teams, UW-River Falls, and East Texas Baptist this season, I feel confident that St. John's (and Concordia and maybe Carleton and possibly Bethel and Gustavus and Augsburg) would be able to beat some of the teams near the bottom of the Top 25 more than half the time.  (Monmouth and Redlands, for instance, going off of past playoff results when those teams had similar records and rankings.) 

That said, I'm also of the opinion that if the Top 25 was an accurate representation of who the best 25 teams are (based on who would beat who) there would be about 5 WIAC teams in the poll.  At a certain point I guess you can't justify listing a 4-6 WIAC team over a 9-1 team that didn't play anyone...

In the end, it doesn't much matter because we have The Tournament.

Wise words all around.

I have said that same thing before about the WIAC ... I think describing the top 25 as part science, part art. That you might not bet on Monmouth against UW-Oshkosh, but you would rank them and not the other.

[K-Mack]

I have a (granted, very trivial) question about #20 and #21: Franklin and Trine.  Since Trine is undefeated, while Franklin's only loss is at Trine, they have two common opponents (Defiance and Manchester) that Franklin dispatched by a combined 61-34 but Trine downed by a combined 83-27, and both have pretty mediocre schedules (signature wins probably being Franklin over RHIT [and perhaps BW, but that was before Trine beat them, so IMO should be discounted] and Trine over Adrian), why is Franklin ahead of Trine?

As I said, trivial - but these sort of obscure anomalies pique my interest!

I would bet name recognition also has something to do with it.  Plus the HCAC has shown pretty well with Franklin and Mt. St. Joe recently.  When was the last time a MIAA team has made any noise in the playoffs?

Albion in 94?

I think h2h should trump the comparative values of other things, but I also don't much by the +3 home field argument either, which would suggest Trine and Franklin are even. Also the circumstances of that game were a little flukey.

In any case, I think Trine should be ahead. But others don't agree.

Hah, wrote that before reading these:

The McMillan Paradox.

Not all evaluation criteria are alike.  Head-to-head results are the most directly relevant: (substantial, meaningful) advantage Trine.

Common opponent results are the next most relevant, and those come out pretty much a push.  Trine retains its advantage.

I don't see how Trine's close wins v. unrelated opponents overcomes the head-to-head and common opponent analysis when comparing Trine to Franklin.

Because the poll is a current snapshot, and what has Trine done lately? That's what I'm looking at.

I'm also looking at the fact that it was a three-point game on Trine's home field, and trying to figure out what that means on a neutral field.

[K-Mack]

Mates,

If Ithaca whacks Cortland on Saturday, do the Mules take a hike to the East on Sunday, yes,no, or maybe,

and why?

I'll say maybe, bordering on no.  With FIVE undefeated teams in the North (including #1, #2, and #3 in the poll (though officially that is irrelevant), some thinning may be necessary.  I'm betting on MUC going East (again) if Cortland loses.

I think MUC going "East" is going to happen regardless of the Cortland outcome due to the same reasons you pointed out and the fact that there is no strong #2 in the region due to the RPI loss...

Mates,
           Assuming the Mules get by Moravian, think Ralph has  hit the nail on the head,

a geographic natural sends the Mules Eastbound. I know if I was in the East, I would want this scenario

instead of another dose of MUC coming to town.....at least one is an unknown quantity.....

If Cortland wins on Saturday, I don't see how the Selection Committee could justify moving either Muhlenberg or Mount Union to the East as a number 1 seed.

It's possible that both Muhlenberg and Millsaps "deserve" to be number 1 seeds.

It's also possible that Mount Union, North Central, and Wabash "deserve" to be number 1 seeds.

But it would be improper to demote a 10-0 Cortland St. to a number 2 seed, to make room for an out-of-region team.

If Ithaca wins on Saturday and Muhlenberg wins on Saturday, I also agree with Ralph - the geography makes too much sense too easily to be overlooked.

I agree with Red here ... but you all make good points.

It may be that there is no perfect answer.

It might also be that a bunch of teams lose Saturday and sort things out for us.

[HScoach]

Isn't it great to be discussing where playoff teams are going to be seeded instead of the crap we have in D1?

YEAH!  PLAYOFFS! 

[Bob.Gregg]

It might also be that a bunch of teams lose Saturday and sort things out for us.

OR, confuse them even more....

[labart96]

It might also be that a bunch of teams lose Saturday and sort things out for us.

OR, confuse them even more....

what that said....and then some!

[Ralph Turner]

1   Mount Union (25)   
2   North Central (Ill.)   
3   Wabash lost vs. DePauw
4   Millsaps   
5   UW-Whitewater
6   Muhlenberg  lost at Moravian
7   Cortland State  lost vs. Ithaca
8   Mary Hardin-Baylor
9   Wesley
10   Willamette   
11   Hardin-Simmons   
12   Case Western Reserve   
13   UW-Stevens Point   
14   Otterbein   
15   Occidental   
16   Salisbury   
17   Ithaca  beat Cortland State
18   Montclair State    lost at Kean
19   Washington and Jefferson   
20   Franklin   
21   Trine   
22   Monmouth   
23   Christopher Newport   
24   Hobart   
25   Redlands lost vs Cal Lutheran

[Ralph Turner]

#   School (1st votes)	Reg season	Pts	Prev.	Week #11	Outcome in the playoffs
1   Mount Union (25)	10-0	625	1	Def Marietta 49-0	Def Randolph-Macon 56-0, Hobart 42-7
2   North Central (Ill.)	10-0	587	2	Def Elmhurst 35-28	Def  Thomas More 44-23, Lost to Franklin 28-38
3   Millsaps	10-0	553	4	Def Birmingham-Southern 31-14	Def. LaGrange 51-26, lost to W&J 20-35
4   UW-Whitewater	9-1	545	5	Def UW-Platteville 52-13	Def #25 St. John's 37-7, Won at Willamette 30-27
5   UMHB	9-1	495	8	Def Sul Ross State 42-20	Def #8 Hardin-Simmons 38-35, #7 Wesley 46-14
6   Willamette	10-0	481	10	Def Menlo 28-3	Def #13 Occidental 48-33, lost to UWW 27-30
7   Wesley	8-1	472	9	Def Gallaudet 55-7	Won at #14 Muhlenberg  20-0, lost at UMHB 14-46
8   Hardin-Simmons	9-1	441	11	Open Date	Lost at #5 UMHB 35-38
9   UW-Stevens Point	9-1	426	13	Def UW-La Crosse 21-7	Lost to Wartburg 21-26
10   Otterbein	9-1	372	14	Def John Carroll 20-17	Lost to #18 Franklin 62-45
11   CWRU	10-0	371	12	Def Washington U. 17-0	Lost to #15 Wabash 17-20
12   Ithaca	9-1	321	17	Def No. 16 Cortland State 35-13	Lost to Curry 21-26
13   Occidental	9-0	309	15	Def Whittier 48-14	Lost at #6 Willamette  33-48
14   Muhlenberg	9-1	295	6	Lost to Moravian 27-24	Lost to #7 Wesley 0-20
15   Wabash	9-1	279	3	Lost to DePauw 36-14	Won at #11 Case Western Reserve 20-17, lost to #25 Wheaton 28-59
16   Cortland State	9-1	260	7	Lost to No. 12 Ithaca 35-13	Def Plymouth State  31-14, Curry 42-0
17   Salisbury	8-2	192	16	Def Frostburg State 55-14	Won at Moravian (ECAC) 21-17
18   Franklin	9-1	168	20	Def Hanover 34-0	Won at #10 Otterbein 62-45, at #2 N.Central 38-28
19   W&J	9-1	163	19	Def Waynesburg 42-9	Def  #21 CNU  35-29, won at #3 Millsaps 35-20
20   Trine	10-0	153	21	Def Ky. Christian 34-12	Lost to #25 Wheaton (Ill.)  0-14
21   CNU	8-1	130	23	Def Ferrum 13-10	Lost at #19 W&J 29-35
22   Monmouth	10-0	106	22	Open Date	Def Aurora 42-13, lost to Wartburg 28-30
23   Hobart	8-1	100	24	Def Rochester 10-7	Def Lycoming  33-15, lost at #1 MUC 7-42
24   St. John's	8-2	59	--	Def Carleton 14-10	Lost at #4 UW-Whitewater  7-37
25   Wheaton (Ill.)	8-2	51	--	Def Carthage 51-24	Won at #21 Trine  14-0, at #15 Wabash 59-28

[K-Mack]

Well at least the top 7 is still alive ... although we lose two of those Saturday.

[Ralph Turner]

Updated thru November 29th.  (Corrections are appreciated.)

#   School (1st votes)	Reg season	Pts	Prev.	Week #11	Outcome in the playoffs
1   Mount Union (25)	10-0	625	1	Def Marietta 49-0	Def Randolph-Macon 56-0, Hobart 42-7
2   North Central (Ill.)	10-0	587	2	Def Elmhurst 35-28	Def  Thomas More 44-23, Lost to Franklin 28-38
3   Millsaps	10-0	553	4	Def Birmingham-Southern 31-14	Def. LaGrange 51-26, lost to W&J 20-35
4   UW-Whitewater	9-1	545	5	Def UW-Platteville 52-13	Def #25 St. John's 37-7, Won at Willamette 30-27
5   UMHB	9-1	495	8	Def Sul Ross State 42-20	Def #8 Hardin-Simmons 38-35, #7 Wesley 46-14
6   Willamette	10-0	481	10	Def Menlo 28-3	Def #13 Occidental 48-33, lost to UWW 27-30
7   Wesley	8-1	472	9	Def Gallaudet 55-7	Won at #14 Muhlenberg  20-0, lost at UMHB 14-46
8   Hardin-Simmons	9-1	441	11	Open Date	Lost at #5 UMHB 35-38
9   UW-Stevens Point	9-1	426	13	Def UW-La Crosse 21-7	Lost to Wartburg 21-26
10   Otterbein	9-1	372	14	Def John Carroll 20-17	Lost to #18 Franklin 62-45
11   CWRU	10-0	371	12	Def Washington U. 17-0	Lost to #15 Wabash 17-20
12   Ithaca	9-1	321	17	Def No. 16 Cortland State 35-13	Lost to Curry 21-26
13   Occidental	9-0	309	15	Def Whittier 48-14	Lost at #6 Willamette  33-48
14   Muhlenberg	9-1	295	6	Lost to Moravian 27-24	Lost to #7 Wesley 0-20
15   Wabash	9-1	279	3	Lost to DePauw 36-14	Won at #11 Case Western Reserve 20-17, lost to #25 Wheaton 28-59
16   Cortland State	9-1	260	7	Lost to No. 12 Ithaca 35-13	Def Plymouth State  31-14, Curry 42-0
17   Salisbury	8-2	192	16	Def Frostburg State 55-14	Won at Moravian (ECAC) 21-17
18   Franklin	9-1	168	20	Def Hanover 34-0	Won at #10 Otterbein 62-45, at #2 N.Central 38-28
19   W&J	9-1	163	19	Def Waynesburg 42-9	Def  #21 CNU  35-29, won at #3 Millsaps 35-20
20   Trine	10-0	153	21	Def Ky. Christian 34-12	Lost to #25 Wheaton (Ill.)  0-14
21   CNU	8-1	130	23	Def Ferrum 13-10	Lost at #19 W&J 29-35
22   Monmouth	10-0	106	22	Open Date	Def Aurora 42-13, lost to Wartburg 28-30
23   Hobart	8-1	100	24	Def Rochester 10-7	Def Lycoming  33-15, lost at #1 MUC 7-42
24   St. John's	8-2	59	--	Def Carleton 14-10	Lost at #4 UW-Whitewater  7-37
25   Wheaton (Ill.)	8-2	51	--	Def Carthage 51-24	Won at #21 Trine  14-0, at #15 Wabash 59-28

Legend:  Pool B bids are italicized.  CWRU and LaGrange are unranked.  Pool C bids are in bold.  Curry is unranked.

[K-Mack]

Ralph,
solid work as always. If no one else appreciates it, I do.

Looks like we have
16 at 1
25 at 18
19 at 5
UNR at 4

24 playoffs teams plus Salisbury were ranked ... not sure if that says a lot about the poll or the committee or means nothing.

It does remind me that even on our best day, the poll still wouldn't be able to rank 7 playoff teams

[usee]

K-Mack,

I posted this earlier this fall on the ATN board, but given your discussion I thought I would repost it here. I think it gives the D3 Poll more credibility (not that it needs it)

Another analysis I did, FWIW, is to look at the validity of the TOP 10 in the D3 poll. I looked at teams ranked in the TOP 10 of the D3 poll after week 1 of the poll (2003 through 2007). I looked to see where these teams were ranked after week 16 (which takes into account playoff performance) and how many of them ended up in the playoffs. Here is what I found:

2003:
6 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 week 16
8 out of 10 made playoffs

2004:
3 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
5 out of 10 made playoffs

2005:
6 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
8 out of 10 made playoffs

2006:
6 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
9 out of 10 made playoffs

2007:
7 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
7 out of 10 made playoffs

[Ralph Turner]

K-Mack,

I posted this earlier this fall on the ATN board, but given your discussion I thought I would repost it here. I think it gives the D3 Poll more credibility (not that it needs it)

Another analysis I did, FWIW, is to look at the validity of the TOP 10 in the D3 poll. I looked at teams ranked in the TOP 10 of the D3 poll after week 1 of the poll (2003 through 2007). I looked to see where these teams were ranked after week 16 (which takes into account playoff performance) and how many of them ended up in the playoffs. Here is what I found:

2003:
6 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 week 16
8 out of 10 made playoffs

2004:
3 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
5 out of 10 made playoffs

2005:
6 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
8 out of 10 made playoffs

2006:
6 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
9 out of 10 made playoffs

2007:
7 out of 10 still ranked in TOP 10 in week 16
7 out of 10 made playoffs

Great post...

One benefit that we get in D3 is that Pool C bids were expanded from 3 to 6 bids  in 2005.  The main place for discrepancy between "playoffs" and "Top 25" will be that those two "populations" are different.  The extra Pool C bids have made a difference because 3 of the 8 playoff teams left are Pool C bids, and maybe Wheaton and W&J don't make it 2004.   

#4 UWW, #7 HSU, and #10 Otterbein are Pool C bids, and were solid favorites to earn Pool C bids in 2008.  #8 Wesley is Pool B.

[Ralph Turner]

Updated thru December 13th...

#   School (1st votes)	Reg season	Pts	Prev.	Week #11	Outcome in the playoffs
1   Mount Union (25)	10-0	625	1	Def Marietta 49-0	Def Randolph-Macon 56-0, #23 Hobart 42-7, #16 Cortland St 41-14, #25 Wheaton 45-24
2   North Central (Ill.)	10-0	587	2	Def Elmhurst 35-28	Def  Thomas More 44-23, lost to #18 Franklin 28-38
3   Millsaps	10-0	553	4	Def Birmingham-Southern 31-14	Def. LaGrange 51-26, lost to #19 W&J 20-35
4   UW-Whitewater	9-1	545	5	Def UW-Platteville 52-13	Def #25 St. John's 37-7, won at #6 Willamette 30-27, def Wartburg 34-17, won at #5 UMHB 39-13
5   UMHB	9-1	495	8	Def Sul Ross State 42-20	Def #8 Hardin-Simmons 38-35, #7 Wesley 46-14, #19 W&J 63-7, lost to #4 UWW 13-39
6   Willamette	10-0	481	10	Def Menlo 28-3	Def #13 Occidental 48-33, lost to #4 UWW 27-30
7   Wesley	8-1	472	9	Def Gallaudet 55-7	Won at #14 Muhlenberg  20-0, lost at #5 UMHB 14-46
8   Hardin-Simmons	9-1	441	11	Open Date	Lost at #5 UMHB 35-38
9   UW-Stevens Point	9-1	426	13	Def UW-La Crosse 21-7	Lost to Wartburg 21-26
10   Otterbein	9-1	372	14	Def John Carroll 20-17	Lost to #18 Franklin 62-45
11   CWRU	10-0	371	12	Def Washington U. 17-0	Lost to #15 Wabash 17-20
12   Ithaca	9-1	321	17	Def #16 Cortland State 35-13	Lost to Curry 21-26
13   Occidental	9-0	309	15	Def Whittier 48-14	Lost at #6 Willamette  33-48
14   Muhlenberg	9-1	295	6	Lost to Moravian 27-24	Lost to #7 Wesley 0-20
15   Wabash	9-1	279	3	Lost to DePauw 36-14	Won at #11 Case Western Reserve 20-17, lost to #25 Wheaton 28-59
16   Cortland State	9-1	260	7	Lost to No. 12 Ithaca 35-13	Def Plymouth State  31-14, Curry 42-0, lost at MUC 14-41
17   Salisbury	8-2	192	16	Def Frostburg State 55-14	Won at Moravian (ECAC) 21-17
18   Franklin	9-1	168	20	Def Hanover 34-0	Won at #10 Otterbein 62-45, at #2 N.Central 38-28, lost to #25 Wheaton 28-45
19   W&J	9-1	163	19	Def Waynesburg 42-9	Def  #21 CNU  35-29, won at #3 Millsaps 35-20, lost at #5 UMHB 7-63
20   Trine	10-0	153	21	Def Ky. Christian 34-12	Lost to #25 Wheaton (Ill.)  0-14
21   CNU	8-1	130	23	Def Ferrum 13-10	Lost at #19 W&J 29-35
22   Monmouth	10-0	106	22	Open Date	Def Aurora 42-13, lost to Wartburg 28-30
23   Hobart	8-1	100	24	Def Rochester 10-7	Def Lycoming  33-15, lost at #1 MUC 7-42
24   St. John's	8-2	59	--	Def Carleton 14-10	Lost at #4 UW-Whitewater  7-37
25   Wheaton (Ill.)	8-2	51	--	Def Carthage 51-24	Won at #21 Trine  14-0, at #15 Wabash 59-28, at #18 Franklin 45-28, lost at #1 MUC 24-45

[usee]

If you go back and look at the D3 poll from week #7 you have:

1. Mount Union
2. Wisconsin Whitewater
3. Mary Hardin Baylor
4. Wheaton

That was right before Wheaton went on a 2 week holiday that it took the rest of the season and 3 rounds of the playoffs to recover from! 

All is right with the world now though.