Potential Playoff Selections / Seedings

[usee]

Finally, anyone know if Wabash could, not saying they should, but if they could go South?  I'm just wondering for future reference because I know Depauw is a South region team despite being 27 miles South of us.

Of course they COULD go South. It probably wouldn't happen this year beacause the South needs more exports than imports but it is certainly an option in most years.

[ADL70]

Wabash going south (think of the concept!) region would probably require some "northern" South region teams in the playoffs (WUStL, Centre...e.g.)

[Black n Gold]

What happens if Ithaca falls to Cortland State......do they lose their projected C Pool bid?

East Region
1. Cortland State 9-0 9-0
2. Ithaca 7-1 8-1

Didn't know how it usually pans out with a 1 playing a 2 in the final week

[Ralph Turner]

What happens if Ithaca falls to Cortland State......do they lose their projected C Pool bid?

East Region
1. Cortland State 9-0 9-0
2. Ithaca 7-1 8-1

Didn't know how it usually pans out with a 1 playing a 2 in the final week

Unless SJF stumbles at Alfred, then Ithaca becomes a Pool C team with 2 in-region losses.

Redlands ought be yelling at that point, as should every other 1-loss team!

Let's cite Frank Rossi's excellent summary from the Pool C thread (post #138) of Nov 12th and re-title it, 11th week Chaos!  Frank has found the key games for Pool C watchers to follow!

What RPI Needs to Happen  11th Week Chaos
--------------------------
RPI would stand a very decent chance of making the NCAA Playoffs if any of these scenarios occurred this weekend (or virtually a 100% chance if two or more occurred), assuming Hobart and RPI both win:

1) Cortland beats Ithaca (Ithaca removed from Pool C with loss);
2) Alfred beats St. John Fisher (Ithaca removed from Pool C with Pool A win);
3) John Carroll beats Otterbein (Otterbein removed from Pool C with loss);
4) UW-Platteville beats UW-Whitewater (UW-Whitewater removed from Pool C with loss);
5) UW-La Crosse beats UW-Stevens Point (UW-Whitewater removed from Pool C with Pool A win)*;
6) Randolph-Macon beats Hampden-Sydney (Hampden-Sydney removed from Pool C with loss);
7) Kean beats Montclair St. (Montclair St. removed from Pool C with loss); or
8 ) Bridgewater (Va.) beats Catholic (Hampden-Sydney removed from Pool C with Pool A win).

* - UW-Steven's Point COULD be considered with two losses for Pool C, although their selection would be unlikely.

Again, for safety, RPI needs to root for at least TWO of these scenarios.  If one occurs, there is a possibility for a subjective or objective analysis to knock it out of the Pool C debate when it finally reaches the board (i.e., after Ithaca and/or Montclair are picked to allow for RPI discussions).

Here is Frank Rossi's Pool C contenders list.  (The 6 Pool C bids selected by Pat Coleman in the Daily Dose are starred.)  Frank and Pat Coleman came to the same conclusion of the 6 Pool C bids prior to this week's games.

Using this week's Regional Rankings, here is the likely seeding of each region's Pool C nominees. 

East:

1) Ithaca*, 2) Montclair*, 3) RPI, 4) Hartwick, 5) Rowan and 6) Curry

North:

1) Otterbein*, 2) Wooster and 3) Elmhurst

South:

1) Hardin-Simmons*, 2) Hampden-Sydney*, 3) Wash. & Jeff. and 4) The Winner of LaGrange/Huntingdon if not chosen for Pool C

West:

1) UW-Whitewater*, 2) Redlands and 3) Northwestern (Minn.) if not chosen for Pool C

[Bob.Gregg]

Ithaca (replaced by Montclair State)
UWW (replaced by Redlands)
Otterbein (replaced by Wooster)
Hardin-Simmons (replaced by Hampden-Sydney)
Hampden-Sydney (replaced by W&J)
Montclair State.

And, then I would see RPI/W&J and Wooster/Redlands

I get to the same place, just in a different order.

[usee]

Found an article in a local Ohio paper interviewing Dick Kaiser, Head of the D3 playoff selection committee. Here is the link:

http://www.crescent-news.com/news/article/4466158

He says some interesting things that give insight into the committee's thinking.

On the top 4 seeds:

"I think we're going to try again to seed the top four teams," said Kaiser, who served as the defensive coordinator at Idaho State in 1981 when it won the Division I-AA national championship and before that coached outside linebackers at BYU. "Then take the teams and fill up the brackets so it won't be like North, East, South and West. It'll be like Team A's bracket, Team B's bracket and so on and so forth. That's how last year, everybody was all upset that all of sudden Mount Union was playing all of these East teams. Alliance is close (to the East coast) and can play all those East teams."

On the criteria for selection:


"The very first thing we always look at is there any head-to-head meetings," said Kaiser, a Boulder, Colo. native. "Head-to-head is one of the primary criteria we always look at in ranking teams and putting teams into the field. If they didn't play each other, then you have to go to the numbers about their opponents, their in-region record, their opponents in-region record, their opponents, opponents in-region record. Then you also look at the secondary criteria, their opponents in-division record and their opponents, opponents in-division record. Those are four numbers that we have to take into play."
Using a common opponent that teams played can also be used in the Pool B and C situations.
"Last year we had a Pool C team make it in by five to sixth one-thousand of a point," explained Kaiser. "Kind of like Defiance High School got into the playoffs this year."

On Travel problems with 1st round mathchups:

Kaiser and the committee have the challenging task of matching up teams in the playoffs so the don't have to fly to play games, with the cost coming out of the NCAA's pocket. The NCAA requires teams to fly if they're traveling 500 miles or more and requires teams to take a bus if the trip is 499 miles or closer.
"That's not ever real easy, not at all," said Kaiser about trying to keep flights to a minimum for the playoffs. "This year there's a strong possibility that there will be a potential No. 1 (regional) seed out of Oregon, an undefeated team out of California, a one-loss league champion out of Texas and undefeated team out of Jackson, Miss. There's no schools close, so you're going to have to fly."

[redswarm81]

Found an article in a local Ohio paper interviewing Dick Kaiser, Head of the D3 playoff selection committee. Here is the link:

http://www.crescent-news.com/news/article/4466158

He says some interesting things that give insight into the committee's thinking.

On the criteria for selection:

"The very first thing we always look at is there any head-to-head meetings," said Kaiser, a Boulder, Colo. native. "Head-to-head is one of the primary criteria we always look at in ranking teams and putting teams into the field. If they didn't play each other, then you have to go to the numbers about their opponents, their in-region record, their opponents in-region record, their opponents, opponents in-region record. Then you also look at the secondary criteria, their opponents in-division record and their opponents, opponents in-division record. Those are four numbers that we have to take into play."
Using a common opponent that teams played can also be used in the Pool B and C situations.
"Last year we had a Pool C team make it in by five to sixth one-thousand of a point," explained Kaiser. "Kind of like Defiance High School got into the playoffs this year."

Warning:  D-III Geeky Analysis Ahead:

I'm a stickler for these sorts of things, I admit it.  But I suspect Dick Kaiser would agree with me, that rules is rules.

This is the second report of an interview with Dick Kaiser that leaves me a little bit anxious about how closely the Selection Committee actually follows its own rules.  The 2008 - 2009 NCAA Division III Manual includes the following requirement:

• 31.3.5.2 Selection Criteria. The governing sports committee responsible for the selection of the balance of the championships field shall select teams in Pools B and C based on the criteria below. The criteria of two or more teams shall be compared to determine the higher-ranked team. An attempt shall be made to determine the ranking of two or more teams after consideration of the primary criteria (see Bylaw 31.3.5.2.1). If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be used (see Bylaw 31.3.5.2.2).  All the criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in preferential order). (Adopted: 1/12/04)

Although the language isn't repeated verbatim, the 2008 DIVISION III FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP HANDBOOK puts it this way:

• Primary Criteria. The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests
  leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in
  priority order). . . .
  
  Secondary Criteria. If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a
  decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria listed will be evaluated
  (not listed in priority order).

In other words, the Committee may only go to the secondary criteria after it has

• considered all of the primary criteria, and
• attempted to determine a [winner] based on all of the primary criteria, and
• concluded that there is no [winner] based on all of the primary criteria.

My anxiety starts when I read such quotes as "Head-to-head is one of the primary criteria we always look at  in ranking teams and putting teams into the field."  But Mr. Kaiser, don't you always look at ALL of the primary criteria in ranking teams and putting teams into the field?  That's what the rules require.

I wouldn't get anxious if Mr. Kaiser said that head-to-head is the primary criterion that always gets highest priority.  But he didn't say that.

My anxiety doesn't diminish when Mr. Kaiser is quoted jumbling primary and secondary criteria together, and then saying "Those are four numbers that we have to take into play."  But Mr. Kaiser, the rules say that you must take ALL of the numbers into play, and you must first evaluate based on ALL of the primary criteria before you may evaluate based on ALL of the secondary criteria.

I'm surprised that I haven't seen any mention of record v. ranked opponents in any reports of interviews with Dick Kaiser.

[dc_has_been]

redswarm81- you have way to much time on your hands.   

[theoriginalupstate]

redswarm81- you have way to much time on your hands.   

This is what life is like in the East Region...

[redswarm81]

redswarm81- you have way to much time on your hands.   

This is what life is like in the East Region...

Hey, if you go to the Daily Dose Playoff Predictions page, you can scroll down to K-Mack's link to Ralph Turner's OCD-like labor of love that resulted in the NCAA correcting its Manual(s).  The errors had been creating problems with several teams, and in more than one sport, and the corrections eliminated those problems (so that the NCAA could get on with causing other problems.  )

Yes, I've spent quite a few minutes going over the Selection Criteria, and I'm worried that the Chairman of the Selection Committee isn't following those criteria.  If the result is to clear the air, then my time is well spent, as was Ralph's.

I realize that my brand of geeky analysis is not popular on every board.  I'm not forcing anyone to read my posts, and I even post warnings when I get particularly geeky.

But thanks for noticing. 

[wally_wabash]

Found an article in a local Ohio paper interviewing Dick Kaiser, Head of the D3 playoff selection committee. Here is the link:

"It'll be like Team A's bracket, Team B's bracket and so on and so forth. That's how last year, everybody was all upset that all of sudden Mount Union was playing all of these East teams."

With due respect to Mr. Kaiser, everybody was most certainly not upset that Mount Union was playing a bunch of East teams.   

[TigerOldSchool]

If the top 4 teams are identified and brackets filled in around them, no East or West team cracks the top 4 (D3 or AFCA).
It looks more and more like Mt Union to the East, NCC to the West since it makes some geographic sense with Wabash leading the North and Millsaps for the South.
This should get interesting.

[HScoach]

Is it Sunday afternoon yet?  I hate waiting

[Mr. Ypsi]

Found an article in a local Ohio paper interviewing Dick Kaiser, Head of the D3 playoff selection committee. Here is the link:

"It'll be like Team A's bracket, Team B's bracket and so on and so forth. That's how last year, everybody was all upset that all of sudden Mount Union was playing all of these East teams."

With due respect to Mr. Kaiser, everybody was most certainly not upset that Mount Union was playing a bunch of East teams.   

Yeah, the rest of us in the North were quite delighted - until we discovered that UWW was the replacement.  For last year (only?) we finally escape the Purple Bullies only to face an even bigger Purple Bully!

I guess it was the other teams in the West who got the benefit of MUC's move.

[wally_wabash]

If the top 4 teams are identified and brackets filled in around them, no East or West team cracks the top 4 (D3 or AFCA).
It looks more and more like Mt Union to the East, NCC to the West since it makes some geographic sense with Wabash leading the North and Millsaps for the South.
This should get interesting.

Oh don't tease...