Potential Playoff Selections / Seedings

[K-Mack]

Trine ahead of Case in the North Region.  Puh-lease.  Was it their 1 point victories over 0-7 Hope and 2-6 Kalamazoo that impressed the NCAA so much? 

Actually it was their win over another regionally-ranked opponent (Franklin), giving it the same overall record and one more of those than Case.

That was an easy one. Right there in the criteria.

[K-Mack]

CoCo counts as in-region (same conference).  It's B-SC that doesn't (2nd year provisional D3).

I realized that when reposting.

Seems I have some fixin to do.

[K-Mack]

Not sure what that does to their potential as a 1 seed should they get by Trinity Saturday afternoon.

Well, they would still likely end up with one more victory against a regionally-ranked opponent than either Muhlenberg or W&J, considering Thomas More would probably drop from 10 out if they lose, but Trinity wouldn't drop from 4 out.

If Thomas More beats W&J, it's not a 1 seed problem, but W&J probably also wouldn't fall all the way out of the RR.

I think Millsaps leapfrogs if they win. Trinity probably should too, but the jump from 4 to 1 is a little different. Must be some reason why Trinity was behind W&J this week.

[K-Mack]

Keith,

Just as there is a potential window to move MUC east (provided your scenario, or a similar one, occurs) I would think there is a similar chance North Central could be moved to the West as a #1 (if Willamette falters). A much less likely, but possible, scenario would be to move Wabash to the South. My only point is geographically these 3 North teams could easily fit elsewhere, giving the committee options.

Yes, North Central is a geographic candidate to go West. Everyone Midwest who I can think of who's in the mix except Concordia-Moorhead (640 miles) is a bus trip. Even St. John's (482)

But No, because Willamette is not going to lose to Puget Sound or Menlo, so there won't be a need for a No. 1 in the West. I guess they could be a No. 2 there just as easily as in the North.

I don't see where Wabash to the South helps.

But yes, the committee has options, for certain.

[Ron Boerger]

Trinity probably should too, but the jump from 4 to 1 is a little different. Must be some reason why Trinity was behind W&J this week.

Given how rotten both teams' OWP/OOWP are it's amazing they're as high as they are.   Records trump all, tho.  I'd wager the difference between the two in the rankings criteria was quite small.

[redswarm81]

Trinity probably should too, but the jump from 4 to 1 is a little different. Must be some reason why Trinity was behind W&J this week.

Given how rotten both teams' OWP/OOWP are it's amazing they're as high as they are.   Records trump all, tho.  I'd wager the difference between the two in the rankings criteria was quite small.

I have been confused by Trinity and W&J's seeds in the South, compared to Husson's no. 10 seed in the East, when Husson is 6-0 in Division III, with similarly rotten (though slightly better) OWP/OOWP numbers as Trinity and W&J.

[Ron Boerger]

Trinity probably should too, but the jump from 4 to 1 is a little different. Must be some reason why Trinity was behind W&J this week.

Given how rotten both teams' OWP/OOWP are it's amazing they're as high as they are.   Records trump all, tho.  I'd wager the difference between the two in the rankings criteria was quite small.

I have been confused by Trinity and W&J's seeds in the South, compared to Husson's no. 10 seed in the East, when Husson is 6-0 in Division III, with similarly rotten (though slightly better) OWP/OOWP numbers as Trinity and W&J.

7-0 (6-0 in Region) with crappy OWP/OOWP >>> 6-2 (6-0 in Region) with crappy OWP/OOWP, even if the two losses come against non-D3 competition and don't factor into OWP/OOWP.  Same thing happened to UMHB with their only loss to a non-D3 team.

Maybe I should have said "overall record trumps all."    At least the NCAA says so.

[redswarm81]

Trinity probably should too, but the jump from 4 to 1 is a little different. Must be some reason why Trinity was behind W&J this week.

Given how rotten both teams' OWP/OOWP are it's amazing they're as high as they are.   Records trump all, tho.  I'd wager the difference between the two in the rankings criteria was quite small.

I have been confused by Trinity and W&J's seeds in the South, compared to Husson's no. 10 seed in the East, when Husson is 6-0 in Division III, with similarly rotten (though slightly better) OWP/OOWP numbers as Trinity and W&J.

7-0 (6-0 in Region) with crappy OWP/OOWP >>> 6-2 (6-0 in Region) with crappy OWP/OOWP, even if the two losses come against non-D3 competition and don't factor into OWP/OOWP.  Same thing happened to UMHB with their only loss to a non-D3 team.

Maybe I should have said "overall record trumps all."    At least the NCAA says so.

Maybe you should have said "geebnorf buzzlequig."  I think that would make more sense to me.

[wally_wabash]

Trine ahead of Case in the North Region.  Puh-lease.  Was it their 1 point victories over 0-7 Hope and 2-6 Kalamazoo that impressed the NCAA so much?  I know Case's schedule has been easy so far (with the exception of Wooster) but every single one of their games has been over by halftime with the exception of the Wooster game, which was "only" 21-0 at halftime.

It's the win over Franklin....wins over regionally ranked opponents count and probably count for more than close wins over lesser teams count against them. 

Keith,

Just as there is a potential window to move MUC east (provided your scenario, or a similar one, occurs) I would think there is a similar chance North Central could be moved to the West as a #1 (if Willamette falters). A much less likely, but possible, scenario would be to move Wabash to the South. My only point is geographically these 3 North teams could easily fit elsewhere, giving the committee options.

Yes, North Central is a geographic candidate to go West. Everyone Midwest who I can think of who's in the mix except Concordia-Moorhead (640 miles) is a bus trip. Even St. John's (482)

But No, because Willamette is not going to lose to Puget Sound or Menlo, so there won't be a need for a No. 1 in the West. I guess they could be a No. 2 there just as easily as in the North.

I think this is a better way of saying what I was trying to convey in an earlier post about NCC going West...whether Willamette is #1 or NCC is #1 wouldn't matter here because somebody is flying somewhere (matters to the home fan bases, but not the NCAA).  In the interest of balancing brackets this seems like a good idea.  Today.  This could all change sometime in the next three weeks and probably will.  Every time this year that we think we know what's going to happen, we get craziness (week 7 which was supposed to be a quiet week after the giant week 6 and obviously week 8 where three of the top four lost).  But the uncertainty and speculation is what makes these last three weeks so much fun.  Can't wait to see how it plays out. 

[ADL70]

Just how does the NCAA determine a win over a regionally-ranked opponent before there are regional rankings?  Do they determine the top eight based on the other criteria and use that last one to further order them?  Or could a team that was ninth based on the other criteria become a top eight team by virtue of a win over a team ranked above it?  And does that opponent have to be an in-region team?  Can a never ending re-ordering take place if that final criterion knocks a team out of being ranked thus affecting other teams rankings?

[bbaddict]

Is it really that complicated or does it involve, say, a board and some pointy objects.  Or just standing at the top of the stairs & throwing a copy of each team's program in the air.  Top landers get the top rankings and such.   

[muledaddy]

Gents,

If Trinity wins over Millsap, and Muhlenberg beats Dickinson, do the Mules hold their regional position
and ranking for purposes of playoffs, or not?

[K-Mack]

Gents,

If Trinity wins over Millsap, and Muhlenberg beats Dickinson, do the Mules hold their regional position and ranking for purposes of playoffs, or not?

Good question. See below.

Where do the Mules get a better shot at 3 home playoff games, by staying home in the South, or being shipped to the East?

Well if we assume wins for the Mules and losses for RPI to Hobart and Cortland (to Ithaca) they could be the 1 seed in the East.

I think the South 1 seed is going to be Millsaps. By virtue of the win over regionally-ranked opponent, Trinity. Assuming they stay in top 10. Muhlenberg doesn't have any of those, but I also haven't speculated on the other peripherals (OWP, OOWP, etc.)

So I guess being a 2 at worst in either bracket is still a good bet for 2 maybe 3 home games, assuming you win them of course.

[K-Mack]

Also repurposed from the top 25 board:

K-Mack,

...where do the Mules fit in the playoff picture... do we leave them home in the South or move them to the East, and why? This assumes, solely for the sake of discussion, that they are successful in running the gauntlet in these last 3 games of the regular season, 2 of which are away games against real quality opponents, leading to a 2nd straight undefeated regular season. 10 of 11 offensive starters from last year are back, as are 6 of 11 defenders. what seed, which area, and why?

I think Muhlenberg is a "swing team" as far as which region they'll be placed in, and here's why:

if Cortland State beats Ithaca, the East won't need a 1 seed shipped in (i.e. Mount Union). But if they fall short on teams, and the South is loaded (3 Texas teams, Millsaps, Huntingdon or LaGrange, ODAC champ, USAC champ) then either Wesley or Muhlenberg could move. Maybe host a MAC team in the first round. Same deal with sending W&J to the North if they are a Pool C.

Anyway, lots of time to sort that out

More on that theory now that I have posited that Millsaps will be the No. 1 in the South.

Two things to look for: Does the East need a viable No. 1 seed, and if so does Muhlenberg deserve it, or does Mount Union deserve it and another team like North Central or Wabash deserve the No. 1 in the North. (perhaps even NC in the West if Willamette were to lose)

If Cortland finishes strong, and the Montclair/Rowan winner does too, one can assume they will have two wins over RROs (new acronym for regionally ranked opponents), assuming Ithaca also stays on the board.

At worst it looks like No. 2 in the South.

But so much left to sort out, and one change in one place can topple the house of dominoes.

The thing I like is if this year's committee is like last year's, they will look to find the most fair matchups possible, even if they have to let teams cross regional lines to make the four brackets.

[K-Mack]

Just how does the NCAA determine a win over a regionally-ranked opponent before there are regional rankings?

They don't.

"They" in this case is not so much "the NCAA" as it is the Division III selection committee, which is generally composed of pre-appointed coaches and ADs (some of whom have to recuse themsevles).

Do they determine the top eight based on the other criteria and use that last one to further order them?  Or could a team that was ninth based on the other criteria become a top eight team by virtue of a win over a team ranked above it?  And does that opponent have to be an in-region team?  Can a never ending re-ordering take place if that final criterion knocks a team out of being ranked thus affecting other teams rankings?

Good question.

First off, remember the regional rankings come in sets of 10. The playoff brackets are sets of eight, but don't confuse the two.

The rankings can and will include non-playoff teams. They (I believe, Pat, Gordon or Ralph might want to chime in) do go down the other criteria to create a list which is then used to assign extra weight to wins by other teams on the list.

With regard to the creation of a never-ending cycle, creative thinking ... but I guess they create the regionally rankings, and then add that to the playoff selection criteria.

Also in this week's podcast Pat explains something about the playoff selection process we don't mention enough.

When at-large teams are put on the table, it's not all of them in a big group. They are ranked by region (perhaps already with the RRs) ... so one from each region is put on the table, then compared against each other. Say a North Region team is put in the field, then the next available North goes on the table with the S, W and E left from last time.

In theory this shouldn't affect a team's chances of getting in, it's merely so that the committee is only comparing four teams at a time rather than an unlimited number. Since the RRs already provide a list of where teams stack up against each other, it also leaves a "paper trail" to some degree on how the debate took place.

I suppose there's the possibility that for the final bid a team stacks up better than ... oh forget it, let Pat explain the Millsaps thing, he can do that better than me.