Potential Playoff Selections / Seedings

[Ralph Turner]

I made a quick run thru last week's regional rankings on the Pool C board.

The conferences that do not have a team in the Regional Rankings are the Middle Atlantic Conference, the Northern Athletics Conference, the USA South AC and the Iowa IAC.  Their Pool A teams earn the AQ.

I strongly believe that we will have no surprises of an at-large team making Pool C that we don't see in the November 12th Rankings.

Post #29--Pool C Board

[Ralph Turner]

First run at the brackets...

South Region

2) Millsaps (SCAC "A") vs 8 ) SLIAC Pool B either Huntingdon or LaGrange.
3) UMHB (ASC "A") vs 4) HSU  (Pool C)

1) Muhlenberg (CC Pool "A") vs 7) Catholic  (ODAC Pool "A")
5) Wesley (Pool B) vs 6) USA South (Pool "A")

East Region

If Cortland wins out, I think that they become the #1 seed in the East.

RPI (10-0) gets 2 games on that side of the region.

A 10-0 Muhlenberg gets to be #1 or #2 in the South with three or two home games.

You can move Pool B CWRU to the east.

1)  Cortland State
2)  RPI
3)  Rowan/Montclair  Pool C
4)  Ithaca
5)  Hartwick  Pool C
6)  CWRU  Pool B
7)  MAC Pool A
8 )  NEFC Pool A

We can juggle the matchups in the bottom half of the bracket to avoid conference foes in the first round.

North Region

1)  MUC  OAC Pool A
2)  Wabash  NCAC Pool A
3)  Otterbein  OAC Pool C
4)  Franklin  HCAC  Pool A
5)  TMC Pres AC Pool A
6)  Monmouth MWC Pool A
7)  Trine MIAA Pool A
8 )  NATHCON Pool A

West Region

1)  North Central CCIW Pool A  Moved into the West
2)  Oxy  SCIAC Pool A
3)  WIAC Pool A
4)  NWC Pool A
5)  WIAC Pool C
6)  Redlands SCIAC Pool C
7)  MIAC Pool A
8 )  Iowa IAC Pool A

Constructive criticisms and comments are appreciated.      

[dc_has_been]

I think the east will be a complete mess.  Cortland still plays Ithaca, RPI plays Hobart, Rowan & Montclair St. play as mentioned, & if CWRU goes east they'll probably end up 10-0 which could give them some a higher seed in the east too. 

[d-train]

First run at the brackets...

West Region

1)  North Central CCIW Pool A  Moved into the West
2)  Oxy  SCIAC Pool A
3)  WIAC Pool A
4)  NWC Pool A
5)  WIAC Pool C
6)  Redlands SCIAC Pool C
7)  MIAC Pool A
8 )  Iowa IAC Pool A

Constructive criticisms and comments are appreciated.     

I'm confused about the West...

Willamette topped the first regional rankings. Yet you have NCC coming in and two other teams jumping Willamette in terms of seeding?

I don't see Willamette any lower than #2 (to NCC) if they win out. They'll host Oxy, unless Redlands gets in. If Redlands is in, look for Oxy to host either the IIAC or MIAC champ with Redlands going to Oregon.

Monmouth is naturally in the West (#3 in the first set of rankings), so your prediction would be a move out to become a #6? Some of us are predicting they'll host a first round game in the "West"...but will have their hands full with someone like Whitewater. 

WIAC only gets two in if both Whitewater and Stevens Point win out. That seems likely for UWW. But Stevens Point has tough games and if they falter, Whitewater likely becomes conference's only representative.

Is Redlands a stronger candidate for a Pool C then Trinity, Wash. & Jeff., and others? They would have 'decent' wins versus Cal Lu, Chapman, and Whitworth. But the SCIAC doesn't rate very high overall. A Stevens Point loss would help them, but they are far from a lock for one of only 6 Pool C's.

[Toby Taff]

First run at the brackets...

South Region
2) Millsaps (SCAC "A") vs 8 ) SLIAC Pool B either Huntingdon or LaGrange.
3) UMHB (ASC "A") vs 4) HSU  (Pool C)

Please, not again.

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks to d-train for the feedback.  Let's clean up the North Region before going to the West

NORTH REGION (Records are before Nov 1st games.)
1. Mount Union 6-0 7-0  OAC Pool A
2. North Central (Ill.) 7-0 7-0 Must beat Augie for Pool A
3. Otterbein 7-0 7-0  OAC Loses to MUC; gets Pool C bid
4. Wabash 6-0 7-0  NCAC Pool A
5. Trine 7-0 7-0         Beats Adrian; MIAA Pool A
6. Case Western Reserve 6-0 7-0  (I have shipped them to the East to fill that bracket.)
7. Wheaton (Ill.) 6-1 6-1  Second loss eliminates them.
8. Franklin 5-1 6-1  Pool A HCAC
9. Adrian 5-1 6-1 Loss to Trine will eliminate them.
10. Rose-Hulman 7-1 7-1 Lost to Franklin.

Unranked NATHCON Pool A bid.

Move Thomas More (Pres AC Pool A bid) into this Region as a #5 seed.
Wow!  That is a strong bracket at the top, but it does look cleaner!

Give home games to MUC, NCC, Ott and 'Bash.  MUC and Ott meet in the second round!

[Pat Coleman]

Not if Otterbein is the three seed and Mount Union is the one. They'd meet in the quarterfinals if at all.

[Ralph Turner]

WEST REGION   (Record is before Nov 1st game.)
1. Willamette 7-0 8-0  NWC Pool A
2. Occidental 6-0 6-0    SCIAC Pool A
3. Monmouth 8-0 8-0  MWC Pool A
4. UW-Stevens Point 3-1 6-1  WIAC Pool A
5. UW-Whitewater 5-1 6-1     WIAC   Pool C
6. Cal Lutheran 5-1 5-1 Lost to Oxy 24-21.
7. Redlands 5-1 5-1  Pool C bid Must beat Cal Lutheran on Nov 15th.
8. Northwestern (Minn.) 5-1 7-1  Pool B candidate. Must beat St Thomas on Nov 15th.
9. Concordia-Moorhead 4-2 5-2   MIAC Pool A
10. St. John's 5-2 6-2 or MIAC Pool A

Iowa IAC Pool A

[d-train]

Not if Otterbein is the three seed and Mount Union is the one. They'd meet in the quarterfinals if at all.

Otterbein isn't likely to stay at #3 are they? I'd assume they move up a slot or down a few based on their result versus Mount.

[d-train]

WEST REGION
1. Willamette 7-0 8-0
2. Occidental 6-0 6-0
3. Monmouth 8-0 8-0
4. UW-Stevens Point 3-1 6-1
5. UW-Whitewater 5-1 6-1
6. Cal Lutheran 5-1 5-1
7. Redlands 5-1 5-1
8. Northwestern (Minn.) 5-1 7-1
9. Concordia-Moorhead 4-2 5-2
10. St. John’s 5-2 6-2

Ralph,

Several 'issues' to sort out in the West:

1) Who will win the MIAC and IIAC? (Though for seeding, I agree with projecting #7 and #8 for those two).

2) Will Stevens Point win out to claim the WIAC's Pool A? Whitewater seems poised to claim a bid - be it the Pool A or a Pool C (they might jump a team or two in the regional rankings as well).

3) Redlands as a Pool C? We'll see.

4) Northwestern as a Pool B? Maybe, but I think they'll lose to St. Thomas.

5) Import of teams if the West region only provides 6 or 7 teams.


My prediction and that of "The Roop" on the MWC board (limiting flights plays a big role here):

#3 Oxy at #1 (or #2) Willamette
#8 (or #7) MIAC Champ at #5 Stevens Point
#6 Whitewater at #4 Monmouth
#7 (or #8) IIAC Champ at #2 (or #1) North Central

A UWSP loss clearly helps Redlands' chances. If Redlands makes the field, put them at Willamette with Oxy hosting a game (maybe the IIAC or MIAC champ?).

I would think Whitewater as a (#4 or 5) Pool A is more likely to host a first-round game. But not necassarily because that might also open the door for Redlands to get in and Oxy to host (in addition to the likely import of NCC, who will host).

[DutchFan2004]

First run at the brackets...

South Region

2) Millsaps (SCAC "A") vs 8 ) SLIAC Pool B either Huntingdon or LaGrange.
3) UMHB (ASC "A") vs 4) HSU  (Pool C)

1) Muhlenberg (CC Pool "A") vs 7) Catholic  (ODAC Pool "A")
5) Wesley (Pool B) vs 6) USA South (Pool "A")

East Region

If Cortland wins out, I think that they become the #1 seed in the East.

RPI (10-0) gets 2 games on that side of the region.

A 10-0 Muhlenberg gets to be #1 or #2 in the South with three or two home games.

You can move Pool B CWRU to the east.

1)  Cortland State
2)  RPI
3)  Rowan/Montclair  Pool C
4)  Ithaca
5)  Hartwick  Pool C
6)  CWRU  Pool B
7)  MAC Pool A
8 )  NEFC Pool A

We can juggle the matchups in the bottom half of the bracket to avoid conference foes in the first round.

North Region

1)  MUC  OAC Pool A
2)  Wabash  NCAC Pool A
3)  Otterbein  OAC Pool C
4)  Franklin  HCAC  Pool A
5)  TMC Pres AC Pool A
6)  Monmouth MWC Pool A
7)  Trine MIAA Pool A
8 )  NATHCON Pool A

West Region

1)  North Central CCIW Pool A  Moved into the West
2)  Oxy  SCIAC Pool A
3)  WIAC Pool A
4)  NWC Pool A
5)  WIAC Pool C
6)  Redlands SCIAC Pool C
7)  MIAC Pool A
8 )  Iowa IAC Pool A

Constructive criticisms and comments are appreciated.      

Curious why do you see moving Monmouth out of region and not WIAC pool C?  Similar location are they not?  Not much difference between a 5 and 6 either.  Just curious on why you move a pool A and not C.

[Ralph Turner]

After reading d-train's excellent critique, I moved Monmouth back over the West in my 3:07 pm post.

[K-Mack]

South Region

2) Millsaps (SCAC "A") vs 8 ) SLIAC Pool B either Huntingdon or LaGrange.
3) UMHB (ASC "A") vs 4) HSU  (Pool C)

1) Muhlenberg (CC Pool "A") vs 7) Catholic  (ODAC Pool "A")
5) Wesley (Pool B) vs 6) USA South (Pool "A")

Wow, no time to respond to everything on this thread today, but does anyone besides me think Millsaps' win over a regionally-ranked opponent in Trinity perhaps moves them ahead of Muhlenberg in the south, which was the SR No. 1 last week before the Trinity game but has no RRO on its sked?

D-Train's post was very good.

[K-Mack]

Ralph, seems like the seeds in your initial projection were heavily based on conference strength, or perhaps (O)OWP ... which is very D3football.com, but the committee has seemed to reward unbeaten teams with home games.

I would not be surprised to see Monmouth play at home in the first round. Also, even for Case Western's awful schedule, if they were moved to the East and the East got considerably weaker with Cortland and RPI losses, I could see CWRU playing a home game.

Lot of options this year with

Also maybe UMHB to Millsaps if UMHB is 4 or lower, and Trinity (if they make it) to HSU? Pool C teams have hosted.

I guess SLIAC is the natural match for Millsaps by geography and seed if in fact their champion makes it.

[HScoach]

Wow, no time to respond to everything on this thread today, but does anyone besides me think Millsaps' win over a regionally-ranked opponent in Trinity perhaps moves them ahead of Muhlenberg in the south, which was the SR No. 1 last week before the Trinity game but has no RRO on its sked?

I'm with you on this one.  Millsaps has a signature win, whereas Muhlenberg is struggling to beat poor teams.

Niether team has the reputation of being a consistent national contender, so the committee has nothing to go on other than the results of this season. 

An undefeated Mount Union, Whitewater or St John's has the name recognition to hold down a #1 seed without a win over a regionally ranked opponent.  Mary Harding Baylor could probably be put in that group too, but Millsaps and Muhlenberg don't have that historal benefit yet.