Potential Playoff Selections / Seedings

[Ralph Turner]

Help me understand this ranking business.

Regional Rankings are out

SOUTH REGION

1. Millsaps 7-0 8-0
2. Muhlenberg 8-0 8-0
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor 6-0 7-1
4. Hardin-Simmons 8-1 8-1
5. Thomas More 7-1 7-1
6. Huntingdon 7-0 8-0
7. Trinity (Texas) 6-1 7-1
8. Washington and Jefferson 6-1 7-1
9. Catholic 6-1 7-1
10. Wesley 2-1 6-1  ERROR  3-1 in region

I know the only thing that really matters is what happens in head-to-head competition, so I am eagerly / anxiously awaiting the November 15th game matching up Huntingdon and LaGrange.

However, just for the sake of discussion, why does LC not get any love?

Both play in the SLIAC and have had fairly comparable performances against conference opponents.

Equal input. 

Both have played an NAIA team--HC beat a relatively inferior foe (Faulkner is 2-7) and LC narrowly lost to a ranked team (Shorter is 7-2, and ranked 21st).

NAIA games are secondary criteria.

Outside of the conference they have a common opponent (Maryville) which HC beat by 6 at home and LC beat by 24 on the road at Maryville two weeks later.

Margin of victory and/or site of the game are not part of the criteria.

Yes, I know that HC spanked LC the past two years, but that was when LC had only freshmen and sophomores.

Not a criterion.

What am I missing here? 

Don't get me wrong--I'm glad for HC, but why disparity between them and LC?

I think that there is not that much difference between #6 and #11.  Huntingdon has been close to the Pool B bids in the past.  LaGrange is still a start-up program.

[Ralph Turner]

EAST REGION

1. Cortland State 8-0 8-0  NJAC
2. Rensselaer 7-0 7-0       LL
3. Ithaca 6-1 7-1               E8
4. Montclair State 7-1 7-1  NJAC Pool C or
5. Rowan 7-1 7-1               Pool C (They play on Saturday.)
6. Hartwick 6-1 6-1              E8         
7. Hobart 6-1 6-1                 LL
8. Plymouth State 7-1 8-1    NEFC Pool A
9. Husson 6-0 6-2               Pool B
10. Curry 7-1 8-1 

MAC Pool A


NORTH REGION

1. Mount Union 7-0 8-0  OAC
2. North Central (Illinois) 8-0 8-0  CCIW
3. Otterbein 8-0 8-0  OAC Pool C unless it beats MUC on Saturday
4. Wabash 7-0 8-0  NCAC  Still has the Monon Bell game!
5. Trine 8-0 8-0  MIAA
6. Case Western Reserve 7-0 8-0  Pool B  UAA
7. Franklin 6-1 7-1  HCAC
8. Adrian 6-1 7-1  MIAA Plays Trine on Saturday  Pool C
9. Augustana (Illinois) 6-2 6-2   Plays NCC on Saturday Pool C.  Must win!
10. Wooster 4-2 6-2

Northern Athletics Conference winner


SOUTH REGION

1. Millsaps 7-0 8-0   SCAC
2. Muhlenberg 8-0 8-0  CC
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor 6-0 7-1  ASC
4. Hardin-Simmons 8-1 8-1  Pool C
5. Thomas More 7-1 7-1  PresAC
6. Huntingdon 7-0 8-0   Pool B  (Plays conference rival LaGrange on Nov 15th.)
7. Trinity (Texas) 6-1 7-1  Pool C
8. Washington and Jefferson 6-1 7-1  Pool C
9. Catholic 6-1 7-1 ODAC leader
10. Wesley  2-1 3-1 6-1  Pool B/C 

USA South Pool A


WEST REGION

1. Willamette 7-0 8-0 NWC
2. Occidental 7-0 7-0  SCIAC
3. Monmouth 9-0 9-0   MWC
4. Wisconsin-Stevens Point 4-1 7-1  WIAC
5. Wisconsin-Whitewater 6-1 7-1  Pool C
6. Redlands 6-1 6-1  Pool C  (Must beat Chapman and Cal Lutheran)
7. Northwestern (Minnesota) 8-1 8-1  Pool B  (Has game with St Thomas on Nov 15th.  Lots of love for Northwestern!)
8. St. John's (Minnesota) 6-2 6-2  MIAC Who knows?
9. Gustavus Adolphus 6-2 6-2  or MIAC or up to 4 other teams!   
10. Linfield 4-2 5-2  Pool B (Keeping HSU in the mix.)

IOWA IAC winner


First 4 off the table...

Montclair ST/Rowan winner
Otterbein/MUC loser
HSU
UWW

[HScoach]

I don't see how the South Region is the weakest, unless maybe you are talking about the weakest #1 seed. Out of the 10 teams listed in the regional rankings, 8 of them are in the Top 25 according to D3football.com and 4 of them are in the Top 10.

Typically, the regions have been ranked by the strength of the #1 seeds.  Not the entire region. 

If we look at the entire regions as published by the NCAA (ie, don't move anyone in), I'd still put the overall South Region no higher than 3rd behind the North and East.   The struggles of the MIAC and no undefeated teams in WIAC are hurting the overall West Region.   The West has to be 4th as an entire bracket if for no other reason than Monmouth is the #3 team in the West?  Monmouth?  Yikes.

[Ralph Turner]

I don't see how the South Region is the weakest, unless maybe you are talking about the weakest #1 seed. Out of the 10 teams listed in the regional rankings, 8 of them are in the Top 25 according to D3football.com and 4 of them are in the Top 10.

Typically, the regions have been ranked by the strength of the #1 seeds.  Not the entire region. 

If we look at the entire regions as published by the NCAA (ie, don't move anyone in), I'd still put the overall South Region no higher than 3rd behind the North and East.   The struggles of the MIAC and no undefeated teams in WIAC are hurting the overall West Region.   The West has to be 4th as an entire bracket if for no other reason than Monmouth is the #3 team in the West?  Monmouth?  Yikes.

Yeah, well stated...especially good response to a "Cru-centric" poster from Texas who is looking at the tough Texas sub-regional!   

[Bill McCabe]

Ralph, if Trinity gets in, do you see them hosting HSU and UMHB at Millsaps?  Any other scenario?  Could someone get shipped West?

[Ralph Turner]

Does Trinity benefit in moving up in the Regional Rankings if Thomas More were to lose to rival Mt St Joseph in the Bridge Bowl?

Thomas More comes off the table as a Pool A regardless.  Huntingdon comes off as a Pool B, if they beat HSC and LaGrange.

First Pool C's at the table

Otterbein/MUC loser
Rowan/Montclair winner,
HSU
UW-Whitewater

Who comes off and in what order?

After HSU comes off the table, and Trinity moves up, how good is Trinity at the table for those #4, #5 or #6 bids?

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph, if Trinity gets in, do you see them hosting HSU and UMHB at Millsaps?  Any other scenario?  Could someone get shipped West?

How much money does the NCAA want to spend?
Muhlenberg must beat Moravian in the last week, too.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Ralph, a clarification on the North - Augie has no chance of a pool C.  Another loss would be fatal, but if they win out they are the AQ.  Which raises the possibility (dreaded no doubt by other pool C aspirants) of a 9-1 NCC competing for an at large.

[Ralph Turner]

+1!

Thanks for clarifying that!  Augie knocking off NCC would hurt someone!

[d-train]

Ralph, a clarification on the North - Augie has no chance of a pool C.  Another loss would be fatal, but if they win out they are the AQ.  Which raises the possibility (dreaded no doubt by other pool C aspirants) of a 9-1 NCC competing for an at large.

Very similar to RPI/Hobart and Trine/Adrian. Other Pool C hopefuls would much rather see the favorite win their Pool A (and effectively eliminate the loser) than see them lose and join the Pool C ranks with just one loss.

Interesting to see Trinity above W&J. I think Ralph had those two reversed earlier this week when he said it might come down to Redlands vs. W&J. Lots of eyes on Eau Claire - Stevens Point this week. Also, Redlands' finishing games are fairly tough.

I was kind of surprized to see Linfield at #10 (in the West) above Wartburg or B.V. I think that's a 4-2 (regional D3) team over a 7-2 team? Where was that 'love' last year when Whitworth was the NWC champ, guys?

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks for the comments d-train.

I had W&J above Trinity because of the OWP/OOWP that W&J can "access" in that part of the country.  I think that W&J is losing its OWP/OOWP edge as the Presidents AC moves to 9 members.

We have a closed system in Texas.  I posted elsewhere that the ASC plus Trinity, Austin College and Millsaps are a closed "OWP/OOWP" system.  We cannot get too high above .500.  If the center of the ASC (as seen on this map) is UMHB in Belton, then the 500-mile radius only has 9 ASC teams plus Trinity AC and Millsaps.  Please compare that to the number of teams in the 500 miles around W&J!

HSU has had to fly every year for Coach Keeling to get his team the competition that the Cowboys need!  He got Linfield (another team willing to travel), and UW-Lacrosse, a WIAC team desperately needing games!

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph, a clarification on the North - Augie has no chance of a pool C.  Another loss would be fatal, but if they win out they are the AQ.  Which raises the possibility (dreaded no doubt by other pool C aspirants) of a 9-1 NCC competing for an at large.

Very similar to RPI/Hobart and Trine/Adrian. Other Pool C hopefuls would much rather see the favorite win their Pool A (and effectively eliminate the loser) than see them lose and join the Pool C ranks with just one loss.

Interesting to see Trinity above W&J. I think Ralph had those two reversed earlier this week when he said it might come down to Redlands vs. W&J. Lots of eyes on Eau Claire - Stevens Point this week. Also, Redlands' finishing games are fairly tough.

I was kind of surprised to see Linfield at #10 (in the West) above Wartburg or B.V. I think that's a 4-2 (regional D3) team over a 7-2 team? Where was that 'love' last year when Whitworth was the NWC champ, guys?

Linfield gets HSU's 7-1 OWP!

[Ron Boerger]

The only reason I can see that Trinity is above W&J was that it lost to a better regionally-ranked team, which seems kind of odd because when you think about it that already gets factored in with OWP/OOWP calculations.

Looking at the two teams, W&J has games vs 1-5 Bethany and 2-4 Waynesburg; Trinity vs 4-3 Centre and 4-3 Austin (in-region games only).  If W&J and Trinity both win out Trinity should also have a slight OWP advantage, miserable as both schools are in that regard.   Thanks to the Millsaps encounter, Trinity's OOWP is presently 60 basis points higher than W&Js (W&J's OWP is 17 basis points higher).  Maybe that disparity also factored into the seedings we see today.

[Ron Boerger]

Ralph, if Trinity gets in, do you see them hosting HSU and UMHB at Millsaps?  Any other scenario?  Could someone get shipped West?

As the higher (better) seed, HSU would host Trinity if the AA paired them up.

[Bill McCabe]

Ron, you're right.  It's a goofy system if the 2nd place team gets a home game and the conference champion has to travel.