WBB: NESCAC

[feces monkey]

Snowman, go look for a friend on one of the lesser boards. You're out of your league in more ways than one.

Friday is the game everyone had circled on the calendar, but the bloom is off the rose with Bates' inconsistent start. The "glass half full" types like Red might feel everything is back to normal in Lewiston, but it will be a considerable upset if the Bobcats pull it off. I'm certainly not saying it can't be done, but it seems Bates is still trying to find itself and that is not a good trait with the Polar Bears in town. I base that statement on the fact that it is dead last in points allowed -- a stat previously unimaginable for a Bates/Murphy team, regardless of strength of schedule.

With that said, Coffin is putting up POY-type numbers and would probably get my vote at the break even with time missed. Most of this is due to the fact that Bowdoin spreads out the individual numbers between 5-6 players.

Admittedly playing a schedule weaker than Bates, Bowdoin is tops in scoring and scoring defense, as well as FG percentage and defense, along with rebounding margin. Bates beating Colby by only 10 points is a little surprising to me. I'm going to guess a 62-55 win for Bowdoin. Also:

Friday
Tufts 66, Colby 52
Middlebury 80, Conn. College 55
UPSET: Wesleyan 67, Williams 62

Saturday
Bowdoin 72, Tufts 55
Bates 65, Colby 49
Trinity 77, Amherst 67
Wesleyan 64, Middlebury 50
Williams 90, Conn. College 61

I know about the rivalry, blah, blah, blah, but Williams beating Amherst by only five points is suprising. I would have guessed a 20-point game.

Am I the only one who feels Hannah Stubbs has been around for about six years?    Did she have a sister?

[remsleep]

Interesting predictions for the coming weekend slate. I have not seen Wesleyan, but I seriously doubt they will beat Williams, though I would love to see it.   My guess is that it is more like 60-40 Bowdoin over Bates, even on Bates' floor.  Bowdoin gets after it defensively unlike any D-III women's team I have seen.   I see Pourevalis ( sp?) neutralizing Coffin rather easily.  Loonin, Flaherty Russell and Anelauskas are too good a group- Bates really only has Barton to try to offset that.  The X-Factors are Kostakis for Bates and Berne for Bowdoin.  I'll take Berne any time.  Way too difficult to match up with.  If anyone watches closely they would consider Berne as a strong candidate for All-NESCAC.  I'm actually surprised that Coach Pemper doesn't ask more of her.   Finally, I will re-state my comments from early in the season.  The Pemper - Murphy coaching match-up is a mismatch.  Murphy is just a soccer guy who somehow fills his winters with reasonably successful basketball teams.  Pemper is a real basketball coach... players' approach to game, x's and o's, game strategy and adjustments all reflect her true professionalism.  Bowdoin by 20.

[feces monkey]

Rem,

While I agree that Pemper is the best coach in the league, I must dissent on your take on Murphy. I'm by no means a fan of Bates (as a school), but I think Murphy is easily the second-best coach in the league. Also, I think your soccer/basketball theory is backwards. I would say his soccer coaching is still evolving (I believe he was standout football player at Bates) while his basketball coaching ability has always been top notch. Bates was a women's basketball backwater (comparable to a current day Trinity) before he arrived and all of their program success has come during his time. (Check out <http://www.bates.edu/x30485.xml> for an overview).

In addition, I think Murphy is a good guy and well-respected by his peers -- something that is not always easy for a successful male coach in a women's game. I think many coaches don't mind seeing Murphy find success because of his demeanor, as opposed to some other male coaches (see: Fifield, Gary).

My Wesleyan pick over Williams is definitely an upset, but no more so than Bowdoin winning by 20 in Lewiston. I would consider that to more of a shocker. We'll see.

[Red1]

Rem,

I feel like I've heard those prediction of Bowdoin over Bates many times before, and the games are always closer than the predictions.   I think you'll find the disparity not as large as you may think.  I agree that Bowdoin's defense is probably the best in the NCAA, and has been for the last few years now, but that didn't stop Bates from knocking off the Polar Bears in Lewiston last year.

You seem quite certain that Pouravelis will dominate Coffin.  Did you know that the Nescac leader board lists 8 individual stats, and that both are listed in 5 of them:  points, field goal %, steals, rebounds, and blocks?  Did you also know that Coffin leads Pourevalis in each and every one of those categories?  (Note:  neither player is on the leader board for the other 3 categories:  assists, ft%, and 3pt %).  I'm not sure if you've noticed, but Pouravelis never guards Coffin one on one.  No body does.  She always gets double teamed, without exeption.     I'm sure the same is true the other way around because they're both excellent centers.

You mention Coffin and Barton as being the only two decent players Bates has (actually you left out Coffin, but having addressed her specifically I assume she was included in that list).  You sort of allow for Kostakis, corookie of the year last year.  I think you'll find she's far better than you may realize.  You also fail to mention Jackie Powers, a transfer from Boston College, and last weeks NESCAC player of the week.  You don't earn player of the week honors if you aren't good.  Finally, I think the coach issue has been taken care of by Feces Monkey.

Can Bowdoin beat bates?  Absolutely.  Will Bowdoin beat Bates?  That's why the game is played.  Can Bates beat Bowdoin?  Absolutely.  This is one of those rivalry games.  Even when one team is supposedly vastly better than the other, they still play close.  As evidence I point you to Bates' victory over then #2 Bowdoin in 2002 at Bates, when Bates was unranked and Bowdoin highly favored.  I also point your attention to Texas v. Texas A&M football.  That game had no business being close either, but it's one of those rivalries.

Looking foward to the game on Friday.

Cheers,
Red1

[walzy31]

I'll take the upset with Amherst taking down Trinity. Coming off a win against Hamilton and a first half against Williams where they led 28-14, they will be able to start conference play 1-0.

Nervous about the two Wes games, Bates, Bowdoin, and the remaining Williams game. If they can take the rest of the conference games and turn them into W's then they will finish in the 5 hole.

[Red1]

Bates 56 Bowdoin 51.  I guess Porevalis (sp?) couldn't dominate Coffin. (although I still think that Porevalis is the best rebounder in the league.)  The real difference in the game, however, was the x factor as Rem put it.  He was right on the nose with that one.  Kostakis had a very good game (although 4 fouls is a bit high, but she was being too handsy tonight and got caught, something for her to work on). Anyway, Berne was uncharacteristically ice cold from behind the arc.  She was probably just a little too pumped up, but she was consistently missing off the back of the rim.  This stat really makes the difference in the game because the stats were pretty even around the floor everywhere else as far as my untrained eyes could tell.

Like I said in my previous post.  This is one of those rivalry games, and in those big games the better team sometimes falters.  I'm not sure who I think is the better team at this point.  Bowdoin is a phenominal team, certainly the best defensive team in the country, but Bates has been on a tear since New Years, and I don't think it's just a streak anymore.  Might we see a NESCAC tournament away from Bowdoin for the first time?  If Bates can win a few more tough games it could be.

So, Bates defeats Bowdoin, and hands the Polar Bears their first conference loss since?  I believe 2002 when Bates also beat Bowdoin, but lost to Middlebury.  Bowdoin took first in the 3 way tie breaker, Middlebury second, and Bates 3rd.  Is this correct?  Does anyone remember?  I hope this outcome answers some of the doubters.

Cheers,
Red1

[remsleep]

Nice post Red1.  So much for my ability to accurately predict game outcomes. Obviously, I wasn't even close. Thirty lashes with the old wet noodle for that one!  I didn't see the game but kudos to Bates for finding a way to guard people.  Isn't it amazing how constantly we are reminded of the importance of good free throw shooting? I was interested  to see in the box score that Pouravelis (sp?) was 4-5 from the floor.  Any reason she didn't shoot more?  Was it Coffin or an inability of her teammates to find her?
Anyhow, I have lately been kind of rough on Coach Murphy..but certainly must now defer to his team's excellent effort...and give him the credit he deserves..he found a way.    Finally, I agree that this may not be just a streak for Bates... it appears they have the pieces of the puzzle in order and may well be a regional and national force as the season moves toward tournament time.

[Red1]

Porevalis' reaction to receiving a pass seemed nearly always to be "turn and post up." The instant she turned her back to the basket she was double teamed.  Not facing the basket and unable to make the turn with 2 people guarding her she was forced to pass back out.  It appeared that the Bates defensive plan was mainly to limit Poravelis' shot making ability as much as possible at considerable cost to most other areas on the floor.  This is how Flaherity got open for so many points (well that, and because she just flat out burned several people), and it's what allowd Berne to take so many 3pt shots.  Had Berne not been so cold, or more importantly, had Bowdoin shot better from the charity stripe, the Polar Bears would likely have won.  Needless to say, when Poravelis did shoot she didn't miss much.

Cheers,
Red1

[Red1]

Bates 61 Colby 37, no big shock there.  Coffin was just too much to handle in the paint for the Colby Center and Forwards.  They had absolutely no answer for her.  Adding Kostakis and Annie Whiting to that mix under the basket certainly didn't make things any easier for Colby.

Cheers,
Red1

[feces monkey]

The Alumni Gymnasium House of Horrors!

Actually, it would be unfair to the Bates team to talk about the gym because they played a great game against Bowdoin. The defense, which I wrote about previously, appears to be back for the Bobcats and the performance by Kostakis was superb. Going 13-for-14 from the stripe in a game of that magnitude is big-time. In the recent past, foul shooting used to be the achilles heel for Bates, but the script was flipped in the last game.

Bates did a great job against the three-point shot, but I don't think the Polar Bears excel when they take 17 three-pointers (although many attempts were late). Flaherty played well, but Loonin and Berne were taken out of their game. Congrats to the Bobcats.

As predicted, Wesleyan beat Williams and now the Cardinals are real players in the conference. They would appear to be the only team left with a shot at giving Bates a loss with the game in Middletown. (Bates has already proven they can beat Williams on the road). I could see three teams tied with a 7-1 mark at the end of this season, especially with the way home and away plays out. But at this point, it's tough to think the final four won't be in Lewiston. That is assuming the NESCAC committee feels Bates is able to host a semifinal and final (kidding, kidding).

Walzy was on the Amherst game. That one wasn't even close. Nice road win.

I was hoping Tufts would be able to give Brandeis a game, but the Jumbos aren't real good. And with three straight weeks on the road in-conference, Tufts will be lucky to make the Top 7.

[Pops Morra]

I think Bates stinks, and that they have always stunk. 

Anyone that has ever played there should never touch a basketball again,  not even at the YMCA or corporate basketball leagues.

holla

[walzy31]

Bates will go through nescac with a clean slate. Hard to say they stink when they finish 9-0.

I'll take Wesleyan over Amherst on Friday by 8. And Amherst over Conn on Saturday by 11.

[feces monkey]

While I agree that Bates stinks (or is that the Androscoggin?), it's best not to rile up Red...he can be a nasty bugger.  And don't worry about the corporate leagues. Bates grads are too busy getting Bowdoin and Colby grads coffee to play hoops...

Talked to my buddy in Vegas, and he, like Walzy has Wesleyan -8* for the Amherst game. I'll take the Cardinals and give the points. Also:

I'll take:
Trinity (+15) at Conn. College
Middlebury (-13) vs. Bates
Tufts (-9) at Williams

Saturday, I'll take:
Bates (+6) at Williams
Tufts (-2) at Middlebury
Amherst (+13) vs. Conn. College
Wesleyan (+19) vs. Trinity
Bowdoin (+22) vs. Colby

*(Lines strictly for recreational purposes only...)

[Red1]

Oh you're probably smelling the Scog (there's a reason we call it the scog around here.)  Or you could be smelling the collective sweat from everyone sitting in the gym as it's hotter than your average sauna in there.  But I can assure you that stink is not coming from the basketball team.  If a team that just beat Bowdoin and Colby stank what would that say about Bowdoin and Colby?  Well, I'm not sure about Colby , but Bowdon definitely does not stink.

Cheers,
Red1

[senatorfrost]

 Williams has had some problems with Bates the last two years. I think Bates beat them earlier this year without Kostakis and Powers. Plus they beat them three times last year.  I'll give the 6.
Middlebury beat tufts easily AT TUFTS last year while missing some starters. Each team lost a Senior starter and Tufts might have lost two. This year the game is at Middlebury. I'll give the 2
  I want a two team parlay of Bates and Middlebury , both games on Sat. for two Dimes and a Nickle.