WBB: NESCAC

[amh63]

FYI.....posted on the MBB some items that I will post here. 
First the WBB game on Sat....at 2PM will be webcast.  Link on the Amherst website.  No link to date on the NESCAC website yet.....therefore maybe no link on the D3hoop site.  Alerted the SID at Amherst to see if it can be done.
2nd....there is a nice writeup on the upcoming WBB game this Saturday on the Athletic section for those interested.

[daoustian]

That was an ugly beatdown of Hamilton.  Amherst made more 3s than 2s and shot 62.5% from beyond the arc, had a 50-point lead at one point.  Still a really young team for the Lady Jeffs, but great potential for the future. 

[amh63]

If I recall correctly...the final score was 78-33, with everybody playing.  FY Boyette again got PT and moved well and scored when she got the ball down low.  Seems early, Hamilton out rebounded the Lady Jeffs in the first half.....but turn over the ball too much....good defense by Amherst.  Amherst shot faound 65% plus from outside....while Hamilton finally hit two in the 2nd half from outside..they tried.  oops..Dauostian....you maybe more accurate as the outside shot is your shot, I believe

FYI, Bowdoin beat Williams by 25 at home...payback to a 5 point loss in Willytown in January.  Seemed that it was not even close for most of the game.  Announcers mentioned that in Chandler, the Ephs got a huge lead over the PBears in the first half only to survive a comeback run by the PBears in the 2nd half.   

Tufts win big over the Cardinals, but it was very close between Conn and Trinity....maybe in OT.

[NE Jeffs Fan]

Will be interesting to see if this knocks Williams out of NCAA contention. 

[amh63]

Trinity wins  a battle over Connecticut.  Got to look to see who will Amherst meet next.

[Maine 1]

Trinity-Conn College game, not surprisingly, was best game of the day.  Caught most of the game on line, and it was close the whole game. Both teams played very well.  Trinity hit a couple more threes than Conn, and that was the difference.
Bowdoin totally dominated Williams.  The game was 25-5 at one point.  Never a contest.
I would not be surprised by anything next weekend.  The expectation would be that Amherst and Tufts should win, but I would be concerned that Amherst's offense is very focused on 3s--and as one of the posters mentioned, I don't believe you can win against good competition relying on 3s.  Amherst shot great today, but 3-pointer shooting is definitely streaky, and it looks like today was one of those days when everything goes in, and once a few people start making the shots, it gets contagious.
Bowdoin played Amherst tough earlier, and they have some good offensive balance. 
Trinity could make it a tough game for Tufts.  Tufts had a bad slump at the end of the season, and if they are not hitting their shots, Trinity will give them a battle.
Should be a very interesting day next Saturday-hope to get to Tufts

[d3wbbfan]

Maine1, I'm thrilled that Bowdoin has had a fantastic bounce-back season. It just isn't the NESCAC without the Polar Bears being among the elite. Shibles has worked hard, and done a super job. Brady has had a superb year. Looks like a great kid to build a team around. And I love a "fireplug" like Prue - what she lacks in athleticism, she makes up for with sheer spunk, determination and savvy. I've seen your team 6-8 times this year. It's funny. To me, your team looks its best on O, by a mile, when "The Binkster" (as your announcer calls her - I love it!) is on fire from deep. Same for Tufts, with Foley/ Moynihan. Same for Amherst. Another reason the Jeffs take so many is that all 4 primary frosh are "shooters." Moral of the story? ALL teams look 10 times better on O when the 3s fall.

I know Amherst is next for Bowdoin. And Maine1, you're looking for a path to a Bowdoin victory. Like any loyal PB fan would. That's half the fun. I get it. But is this "Amherst lives and dies by the 3" criticism legit? Believe me, I want to agree with you - my favorite team is Tufts. But it's total BS. When has it actually hurt Amherst this season? Never. 3 weeks ago at Morrell, the Jeffs shot an "arctic" 3-for-23 from 3, right? Must mean big Amherst trouble, by this shaky new theory. Well, who won that game? "Ice cold bombing" Amherst did. By 8. On the road. How did it possibly happen? They were frigid from bonus range. Easy. Because the Jeffs shot 19-36 from 2-pt range. Gromacki went to "Plan B." He needed Giddens & Holness to score that day. And they both produced. They teamed up for 26 points and 19 rebounds, in just 49 total minutes. Further, both Doswells and Renner added double figures. 5 Jeffs did, in total. Not with made 3's, but with plenty of dribble drives and short pull-up jumpers. The frosh get no credit for these skills. These Amherst FYs are simply not one-dimensional bombers. No matter how badly us Tufts and Bowdoin fans want them to be. Yes, the Jeffs were hot Sat, and hit 15 3's vs Hamilton. Meanwhile, Giddins/Holness took a total of 6 shots. Combined. Why? Did Hamilton shut those two down? Heck no. GP had them basically work on their cardio, not shoot, and rest up for the weekend. He's done that many times this year. The result? Amherst season stats that hide their true balance. Skilled on O, from both 2 and 3 pt range. On D, 3 of their FYs guards are at least 5'10". Long, quick, nimble and usually a major matchup problem for their man, no matter the opponent.

I encourage anyone to make their best case for a Bowdoin semifinal win. All I ask is that you give me something that I can actually get behind. To sink my teeth into. But not what's been put forth so far. It's already been proven totally incorrect. Find some true fault with Amherst, and trust me, I'll be in 100% lockstep!!

Changing gears, since we have a few days until the semis, I have a question for anyone familiar with ME D3 WBB. I'm noticing that Biddeford's UNE, from the CCC, is emerging as a very solid club, in recent years. Even showing up in the USA Today Top 25 poll. (And yes, I do know that the UNE coach is one of the 8 poll voters. But still....) They have one key JR, a 6'3" FY post who's a bit raw, but has nice upside, and a core lineup of several quality sophs. I think it's great to see. I realize that Southern Maine will always be there, and get their share of talent. But are Bates and Colby starting to lose kids to the Nor'Easters? Or, if not to them, where? It's just so weird for me to see those two at/near the bottom of the NESCAC. I know Murphy's been at Bates forever, and I know that Colby really cares about WBB. Is there any sense of Veilleux yet, 3 years in? Is she on the right track? Normally by then, admins, players and fans start to get a decent feel for a new coaches' recruiting skills, game management and overall ability to build/sustain a winning program. I have no clue. And no other purpose in asking, other than a "state of the programs" curiosity. Of the two, I guess I'm a bit more surprised about Bates, given their coaching stability and past successes. Any thoughts would be much appreciated. Thanks!

[Maine 1]

Just to note, I am not a Bowdoin fan--I am just pointing out that depending on the 3 is risky, and in fact the regular season Bowdoin/Amherst game is a perfect case in point.  I think if Amherst had worked for some better shots on a day when they were ice-cold from 3, they would have had an easier win.

[nescac1]

Obviously a horrible performance by Williams at the worst possible time, seemed like everything that could go wrong, did, for Williams.  I watched a few minutes of the first half and it was obvious it was going to be a long night -- Bowdoin looked like they had a ton of energy and were playing with a lot of passion and precision, and Williams was unbelievably flat and sloppy, and once things started going wrong, it just began to snowball and the team never recovered, missing bunnies, free throws, everything.  Williams is obviously not playing to the level it is capable of right now, even if, as I noted before, they probably overachieved with a very young team which is thin on dangerous scoring threats -- they always were a bit too reliant on shutting other teams down (which until recently they were doing a great job of), since they only have a few players who are capable of creating shots for themselves and teammates. 

I still hope (and believe) that Williams will be in the NCAA tourney, barring a huge number of upsets in conference tournaments.  They were ranked third in New England prior to this week.  They obviously drop below Bowdoin, but Wheaton, who was sixth, lost two in a row to not very good teams, so they will stay behind Williams.  UNE (fifth) may move above them, but Roger Williams, who was seventh, also lost, so Williams at worst is fifth.  I can't believe that the NCAA would take fewer than four Pool C teams from New England, which is one of the strongest regions, leaving three for NESCAC squads and one for UNE if they lose in their conference tourney. If UNE wins its conference tourney (which they are favored to do), and assuming Tufts, Amherst or Bowdoin wins the NESCAC tourney (probably a safe assumption), then Williams would be in an even stronger position, nearly a lock I would think.  Despite its recent struggles, Williams still has a 20-win resume in one of the best D3 conferences, including some really strong wins, including Amherst, Bowdoin, Castleton, Eastern Conn, and Plattsburgh, all regionally ranked teams.  Those five wins vs. regionally ranked teams will end up being huge in the selection process, I doubt many Pool C candidates will have more, or better-quality wins than Amherst/Bowdoin.

Williams has two weeks of practice to try to get back on track.  Tufts and Bowdoin gave them lessons the last few weeks in the need to kick the energy level up an extra notch from the very start of a big game.  If the Ephs can get a game, or better yet a few games, of NCAA experience it would really benefit them for next season, when they should have a deeper and much more experienced team, and hopefully add at least one more scorer. 

[Roundball999]

I agree Williams will probably get in based on the most recent regional rankings and the favorable look they've received in national rankings for most of the year.  However, NESCAC seems a little down this year from its lofty recent history, Massey has it as the 8th best conference this year based on power ratings, while it was 2nd to 6th in recent years.  Hasn't been as low as 8th for at least 5 years.

[nescac1]

I am always skeptical of Massey's D3 rankings (he often underrates NESCAC men's basketball teams relative to their subsequent post-season performance) largely because there are so few games played in D3 between power teams from different regions, making any computer-based ranking system far less useful.  It's hard to see why NESCAC should be down, particularly in light of the fact that the top four NESCAC teams have a grand total of one combined loss to non-NESCAC teams.  Massey may not see it that way, but I am confident that the NCAA's views of NESCAC's strength has not changed, nor is there any basis for it to have changed. 

[Roundball999]

I guess we'll find out more come tournament time.  Of course if one dismisses the methodology when a conference/team are ranked lower, then it must also be discounted when the conference/team are ranked higher.  I actually thought it matched up pretty well with results in recent years.  BTW, Massey gave Bowdoin a 61% win probability vs. the Ephs.

[amh63]

d3wbbfan...thought to provide several comments on Amherst that you can store in your "mind palace" of WBB.   Picked up that term from the latest Sherlock Holmes series on PBS....dealing with Holmes' storied knowledge in his head.
Anyway, in yesterday's game, even the student announcers notice the changes of personnel by Coach G...commenting on the different combos that were being tried out.  One had the FY Boyette in with Marley Giddins....do not know what you would name that lineup....like your "Miracles" label.
Yes, the team took and made a bunch of threes....a record number as it turns out.  Guess what, a number were made by Pritchard  and other guards...I did mention that the PGs at Amherst need to have that skill....no....oh well...in any case the green light was given to the shooters, and they took them.  Reason?  Game was under control since the defense was still "turned on".

Ms Renner even took and made a 3 pointer.  She comes from a family of fine bb players...her sister was a Div 1 player that transferred into Amherst and played on Amherst's title team as a starter.  I spoke with her father about what sport was the younger Renner.s favorite....she played 4 sports....including hockey goalie in HS.  Basketball of course...still some experiences in other sport transfers.  As a hockey goalie, you have to make quick  decisions and good ones.  I think that is one of the reasons she has been picked as the starting pg.  Renner often wore a knee brace early in the season.  Not so much lately...maybe she is quicker now.

On the subject  of recruits....Ronk, a poster alerted me to a recruit in my area that is coming to Amherst.  A raw player from a fine HS team that plays noticeable minutes.  Her best "talent"...she is at least 6'2-3" tall.

[d3wbbfan]

Amh63, thanks for the "mind palace" compliment. For better or worse, retaining tons of basically useless information seems to run in my family!

I think any D3 fan appreciates recruiting updates. I realize the process is far murkier in D3 (deposits are made, instead of scholly offers signed.) But until updated rosters appear each October, new player info always seems like it's locked up inside "Area 51!"

Wanna briefly talk about my Tufts team. Very pleased with the Sat effort. You could tell the Jumbos hadn't forgotten the upset QF home loss to then-#8 seed Bowdoin a year ago.

I was practically doing cartwheels that Coach Berube went with just seven bodies, until late in the second half. To me, the closer the number of total minutes played by Foley/Kanner/Moynihan/North/Morehead is to 40 each (and Morehead already plays 40 in every big game), and 200 total, the better I like Tufts' chances vs. Amherst, who I also see advancing to the finals.

Sure, if a kid needs a quick blow, put in Rocchi or McClure. They're seniors, can play D, and know Berube's system to a T. My only point is that there is a perceptible dropoff in their basketball skill level, vs the other five. (Same deal for Roberson, whose Sat DNP was likely injury-related, not a coaches' decision.)

My eyes tell me that Rocchi is the 6th best Jumbo. (McClure #7, Roberson #8). My eyes tell me that Zwecker is the 8th best Lord Jeff. My eyes also tell me that Zwecker is a far better player than Rocchi is. (Again, nothing personal. I admire all NESCAC WBB players a great deal. I'm 100% talking each one's individual basketball skills.) Which means GP has two more pieces of quality depth than Carla does. Not depth. QUALITY depth. There's a huge difference. All that needs to be done in Medford is to accept this 13-14 reality. And adjust to it accordingly. It can be overcome. I do see Tufts acknowledging/adjusting to this reality as the Jumbos' #1 stumbling block, in reaching their FF goal.

For years, a dear friend of mine, who won an NCAA nat'l championship in hoops, kept a "plus-minus" on players. Like they do in the NHL. A running count, over a season, of who was on the ice when goals were scored. And when goals were given up. It's surely not a flawless indicator of each player's overall ability. But both he and I found that applying these same +/- parameters to basketball was insightful. Ever hear a coach say, "__________ does things for our team that don't show up in the box score." Well, if it's not points, rebounds, assists or steals, how big a deal is it, really? We found that most coaches actually use that phrase to give their "favorite players" (which most coaches do have, admit it or no) undeserved PT. No +/- "spike" was observed for most of them. But we did see some rare instances where these-type players did have a surprisingly positive +/- number. And thought this was finally a way to help either quantify or debunk the coach-speak.

This year, I can't tell you how many times I've seen Tufts players, who are not among their best five, mis-handle a perfect pass. That would've been an automatic two points. Or travel with the basketball, with no one between them and the basket. Or miss repeated, wide open layups. Or on D, get blown by their man like they were standing still. Yes. I recognize that all players make mistakes like this. But the Tufts players I rank #6 and below, despite giving 1000% of their best effort every single second, make these mistakes *much* more frequently than their best five do. In every single game they play. They're just not as good of a basketball player. This results in empty trips and turnovers. Without me even seeing the printout, I know that the Tufts +/- takes a major hit, with players #6 and below. It jumps out at me. Against 75% of their opponents, Tufts still wins, playing 8 to 10 kids. They can easily absorb the +/- hit that their bench players will generate. But the Jumbos simply don't have this luxury against the elite teams. And these opponents are the ones that now stand between Tufts and their own FF dream.

To this end, I'm hoping Coach Berube will pencil in (assuming Morehead's usual 40), 35 mins of planned PT each, for Foley, Kanner, North and Moynihan. (FYI, I have seen nothing all year that indicates to me that these 4 players can't maintain a very high level of play, with added minutes. They are young, and all in fantastic shape.) Spread the other 20 total minutes among Rocchi and McClure (and Roberson, if healthy. If not, then just the two.) Of course, early foul trouble often happens. If it does, fine. Then go ahead and give Ali R. and Caitlin more time. But *only* then. If she makes this further rotational change, over the course of 40 minutes, in total, I'd anticipate seeing a drop of about 5 less, costly mistakes made by Tufts players. How many postseason games come down to just a handful of good/bad possessions? A deep bench turnover made with 1:00 to go in the 1st half, that means 2 less total points, counts just as much in the final score as one happening with 1:00 to go in the game. A coach has only 200 minutes of total PT to dispense. Against the elite teams, and for coaches serious about advancing in post-season, I always suggest allocating each one of them to their very best players. 

I do think that Tufts' 7-player Saturday rotation was another huge step in the right direction, as to increasing their chances for a long postseason run. And while I'm happy for myself about this, I've 100 times happier for the Jumbos' classy coach and classy players! Gonna be some great NESCAC hoops coming up in Cousens. Can't wait! Thanks as always, for reading.

[amh63]

FYI ....the Amherst SID has posted a preview of the games on the Amherst website.  Enjoy!