WBB: NESCAC

[ronk]

nescacbbrules, I very much enjoyed your thoughtful post. Thanks for reading, and taking the time to reply.

You are free to opine that my focus is mostly on offense, despite the fact that it truly never has been. What I have observed is that, at the DIII level, quality defensive players on top teams exist in surprisingly large numbers. Moreso than consistent point producers at DIII, for whatever reason.

I fully understand that Roberson played a lot last year as well, while Lee did not. In previous years, I thought Coach Berube gave her veterans a serious edge in PT over her newcomers. I understand why she would do that. Some conventional wisdom deems that to be a prudent approach. Experience/deeper understanding of her system/loyalty/trust/more confidence. That said, I believe many DIII coaches put too much importance on those things. I actually believe Josie Lee was a "casualty", if you will, of that thinking last season. She was a noteworthy talent in HS. IMO, the only reason Lee sat last year was because Coach giving minutes to FR, even over the SO Roberson, has historically been something Carla just hasn't done. You could even see that with a major talent like North last year. Carla far preferred the comfort level of say, SR Ali Rocchi, usually citing inherent defensive deficiencies present in all FYs. Yes, those do exist. I feel those concerns are overblown, however. Especially for a young big with a natural gift for rebounding.

Berube and I only ever disagreed on how to best address the issue. Carla wanted her FYs to learn by watching. I wanted her best FYs to learn on the job. By doing, by playing, by making mistakes in-game, during pre-season. These are smart kids. They learn these lessons fairly quickly. My experience has been that, after about 10 games or so, they usually cease to become a liability on D, and are basically good to go. And if they happen to "relapse", you can always sit them/have a teaching moment then.

That was my issue during last season. With North especially. This year, however, I have been singing Coach Berube's praises all season. Why? She's smartly and clearly de-emphasized her "seniority rules" approach. Baptista has been a major beneficiary of this. With each game, she's improving further, to cut down on her excessive fouling. By playing. The kid has quick hands, good court vision, and commits to playing good D. That's most of the battle right there. And she's a skilled and confident shooter. Which is much rarer, and arguably a more valuable trait, than defensive stalwarts are in the NESCAC. Simple supply and demand. All credit for Baptista's quick start goes to Carla/Melissa. Giving Dillon early PT before Kelsey's injury, over Wu, paid off big when Morehead went down. The job Dillon's done has been almost superhuman. So much so, no matter who the PG is come the NCAAs, the Jumbos are a legit contender. An incredible feat. All credit for it goes to Carla/Lauren.

You seem to think Roberson is a better defender than Lee is. I don't. At all. I know Emma has a *rep* as a lock-down defender, but I can't share that opinion, much as I truly want to. I give Lee the edge, due to better lateral movement, and better dead-stop to full-speed run transition. Lee runs like a puma. Smooth. Quick. As I detailed earlier this season, Emma has a choppy, head-bobs-up-and-down running style, and is fast but not especially quick. Emma has been vulnerable to the dribble drive. I've seen several clear "blow-by's" by her man this season. But I love Emma, because she's the hardest working, most intense competitor I've ever seen play out there. Still, in total, Lee's better overall athleticism, unusually good passing skills, and better overall shooting % of the two is why I still think it's in Carla's/Tufts best interests to make Josie the late game choice. I'm simply playing the percentages here. Of the two, I feel Lee is much more likely to make a great pass, sink a key hoop, or not make a mistake late, when each possession matters a ton. Any one of the above. Not just offense. We can agree to disagree on this. There are no guarantees. You are a Tufts fan, just like me. So I automatically like and respect you very much!   

Hey, I'm not making any claims of "foul", or trying to take *any* credit away from either Tufts or Bowdoin, for their 14-15 home wins over the LJs. I'm a Jumbos fan - I was absolutely thrilled to beat Amherst again! But I sure did consider getting them at Cousens two straight years, due to the scheduling fluke, to be a bit serendipitous. I just can't help but recall a huge # of comments made two years ago, lamenting the fact that the biggest NESCAC games always seemed to be played at LeFrak. Is it even debatable that, among the top NESCAC teams, the home court advantage is significant to who ends up winning? I mean, the Lord Jeffs have won 109 straight home games. For me to suggest earlier that there was a good chance for different outcomes, had those games been played at Amherst, doesn't exactly make me psychotic, does it? I just think it's only fair that I see/post about things not just from a Tufts point of view. But other teams, as well. amh63 and I manage to get along well, despite different rooting interests. And if what happened to Amherst WBB, schedule-wise, happened to Bowdoin WBB instead, I 100% promise you I would've made the exact same point (along with 10 loyal Polar Bear fans, I suspect!)

nescacbbrules, I can 100% see why you feel I am a "Gromacki apologist." Big picture, I do have a ton of respect what the man has accomplished. How can you not? But it might surprise you to know that, from the bottom of my heart, that I have *far* more issues with how he's "run his ship" this year than I do Carla. I give Carla a 98, and GP an 81. Berube's job has been much easier, though. Her top 7/8 players (counting Morehead) are clear cut. The only reason I bring up Roberson vs Lee is that everything else, rotation-wise, is 100% set for Tufts. All that's left is what happens if/when with Kelsey returns, and any "fine tuning." 

Amherst is a far more complex issue, for a number of reasons. Re-incorporating Megan Robertson into a prominent role since her recent return from a torn ACL has proven to be far from seamless. Why? I don't know. Guesses? When Megan went down last year, the 4 starting FYs (Renner, the two Doswells and Peterson) seemed to develop a comfort zone, with both each other and that weave offense, Giddins, Pritchard, Zwecker and Holness, although all just SOs and a JR, managed to adjust their games around the freshmen. Some said the scheme was too 3-pointer oriented, and they may have had a point. Still, the final W-L result for 13-14 Amherst was an absolute credit to all involved with the LJs.

So it's a new year for Amherst. No one graduated. A bunch more quality FYs are brought in. Robertson is due to return around New Years'. But what was GP gonna do with all of these players? Hackley, Nagle and Schumacher all had plenty of scholarship-level interest. And the girl from Switzerland (Lily Johnson) can also really play. First off, Holness and Virginia Hassell both decide to concentrate on their studies, which at least got the LJ roster down to 15. I made comments in December about the staggering amount of quality depth that Amherst has. I still stand by that characterization today. But some went a step further, and thought I was anointing the LJs as "the 14-15 chosen one". I absolutely was not doing that, at the time. My issue was that I just couldn't figure out how Gromacki was gonna fit 200 minutes of total PT per game into all of this assembled talent. I thought he'd actually over-recruited. But if anybody could somehow make it work, I figured it would be him. Everything about Amherst is class, so there's no back-biting or grumbling. But when a minimum of 12 kids deserve 20mpg each, what can you do? And when does healthy competition turn into "I better produce when I'm in there!" self-pressure?

Then comes at Tufts/at Bowdoin. The Jumbos are clearly quicker and bigger than Amherst. 5'10" Giddins struggled mightily down low. GP obviously wants a different result in March. Does he just write those two losses off to Megan being rusty, and an overall lack of time playing together recently? At least his "toolbox" is full. If he wants to unveil his own "twin towers", he could try matching up Robertson and Nagle with Kanner and North. I don't think Carla's seen a 14-15 opponent match her size. If Nagle's not 100% ready, she can at least give up some fouls, because GP has two other 6'2" girls on the bench. North is only OK at the FT line. If GP wants to go quicker, Renner, Pritchard, Hackley and either Doswell match up better with Foley, et al. Shannon Brady went off against the LJs in Brunswick, while Robertson was a non-factor that day. GP's quandry: was that day a fluke or not?

I just don't think Gromacki's a guy that's gonna unveil something totally unexpected, lineup-wise, in postseason, even if he has the ability/depth to do so. They don't really press. They've stopped running last year's high-post weave in recent games, even though I think he still likes it, deep down. They still shoot tons of 3's, while now incorporating Robertson's classic low post game. My gut is that he's gonna sink or swim with Megan, the 4 SOs, Giddins, Pritchard and Hackley. I do know the players all look up to Robertson - and I don't mean just literally. And they'll do their very best to have her finish up with a bang!

Good luck to all next weekend, my NESCAC buddies!

Possibly the only team to defeat her - Scranton.

[d3wbbfan]

Thanks for the note, Ronk. That game in PR wasn't streamed, so it was one of the few Tufts games I couldn't watch. I have, however, seen the Lady Royals a couple of times. I remember your #55/#54 combo well. 6'1" SR Meredith Mesaris is impressive. 20+ ppg, 86% FT, and is more mobile and versatile than I expected, at first glance. She's even hit 22 3's on the year, with 3 of them coming in that win over Tufts. I also *really* like your younger, more slender big, 6'0" SO Sarah Payonk. Nearly averaging a double-double, and shooting 84% at the line. Quality production from a young player. I'm sure the other Landmark teams are thrilled to have to deal with Payonk for two more years! It's unusual for a team to have their 4/5 players be the clear go to's, but different is often better, and Scranton's having another great year - and with an interim HC, to boot! Quite impressive. Good luck in the NCAAs - maybe even a rematch, perhaps?   

[nescacbbrules]

Thanks for the comprehensive reply, d3wbbfan. I appreciate your perspectives on the teams and the nuance of the game. To wrap up my thoughts on Josie Lee and Emma Roberson, they are each very tenacious and tough defenders, and Josie probably has a slight edge on offense. They tend to sub for each other, so they most often match up against the same player. It has been a joy to see an academic and athletic superstar like Josie from Cony HS contribute hugely this season. I do think that the experience differential has been negated at this point in the season, but would point to the fact that Emma leads the team in steals (surpassed in steals per minute played by the hugely quick Baptista).  In any case, it is worth remembering that in the biggest game of the year against FDU in the national semifinal, when Tufts absolutely had to steal without fouling, Emma, who scored 6 and had 5 rebounds to help replace the stats of the hobbled Hannah Foley, tied up the ball with 15 seconds to play giving Tufts the chance for a tying 3-pointer. It didn't work out for our Jumbos like Ms. Lee's shot at Hamilton, but it was just the kind of play you ascribe to Josie.

[amh63]

Been " enjoying" the conversation wrt to rotation of players on the Tufts, Amherst teams....in particular to match- ups, etc.  I often do the same but more so on the men's side.  It often proves frustrating...usually when second guessing coaches moves of past games.
I went back two seasons ago..12-13 season...partly to check a recent posted remark about how good Amherst was over the years with respect to Tufts.  Why?  I got to watch the Tufts vs Amherst game live in LeFrak that season...both men's and women's games with my best man...a follower of the HBC of Tufts since her UConn days...and my youngest son and his wife.  My youngest son, an Amherst grad and follower of MBB as well as a fine HS player.
Anyway...to my point here...the Amherst teams won both games.  Amherst was the better team THAT day in both games...period.   The next game for Amherst was up in Williams....where Williams beat Amherst badly..by 20 pts...their only lost in the regular season.  Meg Robertson had an poor outing...reason unknown to me.
It is interesting that Amherst hosted the CAC tourney that year and won it and reached the Final 4 again.  Most interesting, Tufts was not the opponent in the CAC title game.  Amherst beat Williams for the title...by 15 points!
Suggest all should sit back and enjoy the upcoming conference tournament.  Match ups will be key, but how well players play in a game on a particular day is not known...imo.  It is then when the coaches earn their money. . The depth of the bench helps too.

[nescacbbrules]

Amh63, I remember the intensity of that 2013 game which I was also fortunate to see in person. Each team was undefeated and they were ranked 4 and 5 in the nation. The lead changed hands throughout the first half and was tied at intermission, 22 all. Amherst never trailed in the second half, but Tufts was right there until Voigt made a desperation heave from beyond the arc in the last 35 seconds that banked in to seal the Jumbo's fate. Voigt was a very tough, inspirational leader, I thought. Robertson was tough and had a double/double, but I remember Holness and Zwecker providing real lift off the bench, so important, as you suggest.

Amherst lost at Williams the next day but the Ephs had lost at Tufts, so all three had 9-1 records. Tufts drew the winning ticket for the tiebreaker and was set to host their first NESCAC tournament when an inspired Bowdoin team upset them in the quarterfinals, giving Amherst, the 2nd place lottery ticket holder, that gift. Tufts had to wait two weeks to play again at LeFrak, and although the game was different, the result was the same. A very tough, hard nosed matchup in which Tufts tying shot attempts rolled out and Amherst kept the streak alive and went to the Final Four.

Here's hoping Jumboland gets to host the LJs in Cousens this year. Good luck.

[ronk]

Thanks for the note, Ronk. That game in PR wasn't streamed, so it was one of the few Tufts games I couldn't watch. I have, however, seen the Lady Royals a couple of times. I remember your #55/#54 combo well. 6'1" SR Meredith Mesaris is impressive. 20+ ppg, 86% FT, and is more mobile and versatile than I expected, at first glance. She's even hit 22 3's on the year, with 3 of them coming in that win over Tufts. I also *really* like your younger, more slender big, 6'0" SO Sarah Payonk. Nearly averaging a double-double, and shooting 84% at the line. Quality production from a young player. I'm sure the other Landmark teams are thrilled to have to deal with Payonk for two more years! It's unusual for a team to have their 4/5 players be the clear go to's, but different is often better, and Scranton's having another great year - and with an interim HC, to boot! Quite impressive. Good luck in the NCAAs - maybe even a rematch, perhaps?   

You're very perceptive in your analysis of Meredith and Sara. Meredith has been a force from day 1 with an impressive array of offensive weapons, but Sara is the one whose play is appreciated by true fans of basketball. She does Everything on the court with no let-up in effort and still visibly enjoys playing the game, at the same time. I haven't seen any Scranton player have a more impressive debut than Sara's last season with a double double against a quality team and player(Montclair and Melissa Tobie). We have a 3rd big, also, who comes off the bench and hit for 30 in an NCAA game last season.
  Good luck in the NCAAs, also, and there would seem to be a good chance of a rematch, Elite 8 or later. Scranton has stumbled a couple of times this season, so anything can happen in the interim.

[d3wbbfan]

Here are my highly unofficial predictions for 2014-15 All-NESCAC WBB:

1st Team
Sara Binkhorst, Bowdoin (SR)
Samantha Graber, Hamilton (JR)
Ellen Cook, Williams (SR)
Hayley Kanner, Tufts (SR)
Mairead Hynes, Conn College (FR)

2nd Team
Ali Doswell, Amherst (SO)
Shannon Brady, Bowdoin (JR)
Michela North, Tufts (SO)
Carylanne Wolfington, Colby (JR)
Mackenzine Griffin, Trinity (JR)

Player Of The Year: Sara Binkhorst, Bowdoin

Rookie Of The Year: Mairead Hynes, Conn College

Coach Of The Year: Carla Berube, Tufts

Defensive Player Of The Year: (far too subjective for me to even attempt)   

[amh63]

Amherst wins the Little Three again...beats Wesleyan in Middletown to close out the regular season.  It was a 30 point win....about the same as the conference counting game in LeFrak recently.
What is important for me to point out any score difference here is it was done with more "bench" contribution.  Believe Meg Robertson may have played her best offensive game in a long time...scoring 20 points with 18 in the first half.  coach G. Put on the floor a number of combinations and the offense continued well.  A particular sequence of passes that led to an easy layup got the top assistant and others off the bench and cheering.  I got the impression that the offense was directed to score inside...by the guards on drives and front court players on lay ups....in short...less reliance on the outside shot that could be impacted more in unfamiliar gyms...away games ahead.
It proved to be a most useful game for both coaches...as the WES coach also rotated a number of players...often two or more at a time and called a bunch of time outs.
A "classroom" game...a worthwhile game, imo.

[nescacbbrules]

Thanks for offering your all-NESCAC picks. They've got me working overtime, but I find it a real challenge to evaluate the players with any high degree of confidence. I have been excavating the NESCAC conference statistics but am not sure this is a productive exercise. Do you, as I am inclined to do, give more weight to the conference play, against the better teams, with slightly additional weight on end of season performance? How highly do you rate the eye test, and do other seasons impact your picks? d3wbbfan, it seems that perhaps you see more games than some of us do. I tend to watch all the Tufts games and the other games of interest, Bowdoin-Amherst, Williams-Amherst, etc. I haven't seen much of Hynes or Griffin, Graber or Coppola. Because I live in a remote region of Maine, getting to Brunswick or Waterville is a challenge, much less Medford, Hartford, or Amherst. Now that tournament time is here, I will be traveling to catch the all NESCAC and NCAA games that our weather will permit.

Some of the stats I found: 
Allie Coppola of Bates is one of the top rebounders and an assist-to-turnover leaders, an unusual link.
Lauren Dillon, the unexpected PG starter for Tufts, led the league in assists--thank you Michaela and Haley.
Mackenzie Griffin had a great season for Trinity, period.
Mairead Hynes, a super fy, had 26 pts and 20 rebs against Griffin in New London. Wow.

It's tough to place talented team players on a balanced team on a continuum. This is true for Amherst while Tufts has potentially 4 all-conference performers. My take is that North has been more consistently instrumental to the success of the team--tougher than last year, and I would give her the nod over Kanner, but it's a tossup. Lauren Dillon has been consistent while running the offense and defending. Hannah Foley is a fantastic shooter and defends and rebounds at a very high level.
For discussion purposes, let me suggest my two WBB teams, also highly unofficial.

1st Team
Shannon Brady, Bowdoin -- Binkhorst's a great shooter, but I like Shannon's whole body of work
Mairead Hynes, Connecticut College
Michela North, Tufts
Lauren Dillon, Tufts
Allie Coppola, Bates

2nd Team
Hayley Kanner, Tufts
Ellen Cook, Williams
Mackenzie Griffin, Trinity
Sara Binkhorst, Bowdoin
Samantha Graber, Hamilton

I'll take a pass on the other superlatives.

[d3wbbfan]

nescacbbrules, I thoroughly enjoyed reading your choices, and hearing of your reasoning. A pure and refreshing take.

Mine was who I think will actually appear, and I didn't use much, if any, personal evaluation. (Much as I would've liked to - more fun that way!) What makes doing the NESCAC especially challenging is that they only have 10 total spots. No league in the country has as few - some leagues honor more than 5 players per team, and include a 3rd team or honorable mention, further hamstringing me, selection-wise.

All I will say is that I have inside knowledge as to how these things usually go down, with the school's SID and/or assigned WBB person helping provide data/thoughts to the coaches:

1) Look at last year's 1st team/2nd team lists, and see who returned this year. And unless they missed major time due to injury, or had a precipitous stat/performance dropoff, they're virtually a guarantee to re-appear. Seven players fall in this category:

2013-14 1st Team:
-Sara Binkhorst, SR (15.2 ppg) (my prediction: repeat 1st Team)

-Ellen Cook, SR (14.6 ppg) (my prediction: repeat 1st Team)

-Kelsey Morehead, SR (gets left off, 100% due to her pre-season injury)

2013-14 2nd Team:
-Shannon Brady, JR (13.8 ppg) (my prediction: 2nd team. I cede your point. I, too, admire her all-around game. But she still has next year; Binkhorst doesn't.)

-Ali Doswell, SO (12.3 ppg) (my prediction: 2nd team. Personally, I don't believe any LJs should appear this year. That said, I just don't think she'll be left off-she is their leading scorer again. Besides, a team can't be 22-2, and then have no one selected. It's not PC.)

-Hannah Foley, SR (she was my #1 hardest choice to leave off-especially being a SR this yr. But she's a scoring guard, and has only averaged 11.5 ppg. That's not a lot, really. I believe the usual, repeat selection/upperclassman sentiment strongly favors Foley and Kanner, but you and I both know that North has clearly been Tufts best and most consistent player all year, despite being just a SO. But where does the sentiment end, and the logic begin? The actual choice will be fun to watch. You know Coach Berube would rather see her SRs, Kanner and Foley, honored before North. Between you and me, Michela, having two years left, could be left out altogether....)

-Hayley Kanner, SR (13.1 ppg) (my prediction: 1st team. Personally, I think she deserves 2nd team again. North has just played better. Further, Hayley has really struggled with her post offense the last couple of weeks. I'm guessing that won't matter in the end, however.)


2) Pull up the stat category of league PPG leaders (which I know is going to make your cringe, nescacbbrules; please don't shoot the messenger - just telling you the truth.....)

-Samantha Graber (JR) (17.4 ppg) (my prediction: 1st Team. Sam has carried this team on her back all year, and into the playoffs, almost single-handedly.)

-Mairead Hynes (FR) (16.9 ppg) (my prediction: 1st Team. Even her own coaches were shocked at how good she was, from Day 1. Still, she'd be incredibly easy to move down to 2nd team, as a FY, given the fact she's also gonna be FR Of The Year.)

-Mackenzie Griffin (JR) (16.2 ppg) (my prediction: 2nd team. I think she's easily been the best "off-the-NESCAC radar" player this year.  The Bantams lost so much to graduation last May, it was always gonna be a rebuilding year. Without her, though? Scary bad.)

-Carylanne Wolfington (JR) (14.9 ppg) (my prediction: 2nd team. Colby's got enough solid stat line players for one to appear here, and are on the rise as a team. She outscored fellow JR Mia Diplock by 3ppg. Caitlyn Nolan is just a SO, and SR Brooke Chandor only scores 9.3ppg; not enough to even get her in the discussion.)

-Michela North (SO) (13.9 ppg) (my prediction: 2nd team. Already discussed her situation above.)


3) In the case where two players from the same team have similar general stat lines, give the all-conference "tiebreaker" nod to the upperclassmen. In the case where two players from different teams have very similar stat lines, give the all-conference nod to the player from the team who had the better overall W-L record.

4) Call your fellow coaches, and ask if there is a specific player of theirs that they would like to see on the all-conference team, and vice versa. It's not always done, but it is quite often. Basic coaching community common courtesy. I've found that a good many coaches have strong opinions as to which of their own players they would like to see be given the honor, and some will lobby the others, to make it happen. Usually, as long as that specific player's numbers are in the general ballpark of the other players chosen, fellow coaches will almost always vote as they are asked to. Because, down the road, you may feel the exact same way about one of your kids, and will need their help to get them the honor. Basically, this exercise is like everything else in this world - there's some back room jostling. 

nescacbbrules, you and I are surely president and VP of the Lauren Dillon fan club. Her accomplishments filling in for Morehead notwithstanding, it is typically not the type of season that has ever really resulted in an all-conference selection. Especially as a FY, and also given the fact that Morehead may very well be back in the Jumbo lineup this Saturday, for the #8 at #1 quarterfinal vs Hamilton. Lauren's surely placed herself on the radar for the next three years, however. Especially if she can eventually reach Kelsey's level, as a more consistent scoring threat. As for Allie Coppola (SO) from Bates, I also feel that an all-league appearance for her is just a bit premature. She really is undersized for a post, but she's awfully crafty, and very tenacious out there. She easily has the best all-around skillset on the team. Losing Molly Brown was tough, but it gave some youngsters valuable PT. If Nason can work on shooting a better % from deep next year, and Connors and Davenport make the improvements I expect them to make on the defensive end next year, I expect to see the same W-L leap from Allie and the Bobcats that I saw from Colby this year. I really think we'll see Coach Murphy and Bates make the playoffs next season.     

And you're right - I make it a point to try and check out each NESCAC team as often as I possibly can online. Crossing my fingers that Colby and Bates will join the other NESCAC schools, and begin to provide video for all home games. The two schools are now way behind the country on this. Them not streaming video of their WBB games prevented me from seeing/evaluating either one nearly as much as I would've liked. To answer your earlier question, I am a *huge* proponent of the "eye test." I use it and trust it more than anything. Numerous companies offer this service in ME, at affordable rates. Audio commentary is optional. Ambient sound is fine. Us fans (not the mention the parents of the players) will be ecstatic! Safe travels, and enjoy the action this weekend. Being able to watch in person is always more fun!

[nescacbbrules]

d3wbbfan, thanks for your response. You know very well how the process works; the horse trading by coaches, the current and past status within the team and conference of upperclass players, etc. And I get that your all-conference teams relied on last year's teams, points per game, class, etc. Your predictions will no doubt look more like the teams that are announced than mine. For my own sake, really, I wanted to look across the breadth of the conference and try to assess the season without those other factors involved. I don't pretend my suggestions bear any resemblance to what the coaches and SIDs would promote. I just tried to evaluate statistically all the conference categories and come to some balanced approach.

My parochial interests are mostly about Tufts. Let's take a look at the case of Lauren Dillon, for example. She led the CAC conference stats by more than one assist per game. She had one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios as well. It is certainly noteworthy that she stepped in for Kelsey, an all-conference senior PG, and floor-generaled the team to an undefeated regular season conference schedule. She averaged 2 points less than Kelsey and had an additonal .6 TO per game, but all other stats from shooting percentage to rebounds are very close. Lauren had a great team with senior leadership and Kelsey and Michelle were there to talk her through tough patches. How, then, should we evaluate her without all the other exceptions and factors you mentioned? I think Kelsey Morehead would undoubtedly have been a top candidate for player of the year in the superlative category, but how does her injury affect the way we evaluate the job that Lauren did? Maybe the only solution is that there should be a "Tufts tandem point guard" award.

When you think about Hannah Foley, should the fact that she plays on a team with two outstanding go-to forwards and is not the first offensive choice limit the way we evaluate her talent? How inflated do you imagine her stat line would be with any other team in the NESCAC? Doesn't her outstanding defense, shooting percentages, and all around hustle get her past any concerns about 11.5PPG? Oh, BTW, Hannah was tops in conference play in assist-to-turnover ratio and 8th in rebounding! (Ahead of Kanner) Should we devalue her status even knowing she would easily have scored 15 PPG on other teams?

One of the more interesting stats I came across in my research was the fact that Dillon, Foley, Lee, and Roberson are each in the top 7 in assist-to-turnover ratio for conference play among players over 200 minutes. Renner and the two Doswells for Amherst are the other 3. Says a lot about what Berube and Gromacki value. Tufts is also tops once again in all of Div 3 in scoring defense. Kate Kerrigan of Bowdoin is the leader in steals and highly ranked in rebounds, assists, and shooting percentage. Along with Kaufman (Middlebury), Hynes (Connecticut College), Dillon and Baptista (Tufts), Connnors (Bates), Getman (Hamilton), and Fernandez (Williams), Kerrigan is part of a talented group of first years.

[ronk]

d3wbbfan, thanks for your response. You know very well how the process works; the horse trading by coaches, the current and past status within the team and conference of upperclass players, etc. And I get that your all-conference teams relied on last year's teams, points per game, class, etc. Your predictions will no doubt look more like the teams that are announced than mine. For my own sake, really, I wanted to look across the breadth of the conference and try to assess the season without those other factors involved. I don't pretend my suggestions bear any resemblance to what the coaches and SIDs would promote. I just tried to evaluate statistically all the conference categories and come to some balanced approach.

My parochial interests are mostly about Tufts. Let's take a look at the case of Lauren Dillon, for example. She led the CAC conference stats by more than one assist per game. She had one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios as well. It is certainly noteworthy that she stepped in for Kelsey, an all-conference senior PG, and floor-generaled the team to an undefeated regular season conference schedule. She averaged 2 points less than Kelsey and had an additonal .6 TO per game, but all other stats from shooting percentage to rebounds are very close. Lauren had a great team with senior leadership and Kelsey and Michelle were there to talk her through tough patches. How, then, should we evaluate her without all the other exceptions and factors you mentioned? I think Kelsey Morehead would undoubtedly have been a top candidate for player of the year in the superlative category, but how does her injury affect the way we evaluate the job that Lauren did? Maybe the only solution is that there should be a "Tufts tandem point guard" award.

When you think about Hannah Foley, should the fact that she plays on a team with two outstanding go-to forwards and is not the first offensive choice limit the way we evaluate her talent? How inflated do you imagine her stat line would be with any other team in the NESCAC? Doesn't her outstanding defense, shooting percentages, and all around hustle get her past any concerns about 11.5PPG? Oh, BTW, Hannah was tops in conference play in assist-to-turnover ratio and 8th in rebounding! (Ahead of Kanner) Should we devalue her status even knowing she would easily have scored 15 PPG on other teams?

One of the more interesting stats I came across in my research was the fact that Dillon, Foley, Lee, and Roberson are each in the top 7 in assist-to-turnover ratio for conference play among players over 200 minutes. Renner and the two Doswells for Amherst are the other 3. Says a lot about what Berube and Gromacki value. Tufts is also tops once again in all of Div 3 in scoring defense. Kate Kerrigan of Bowdoin is the leader in steals and highly ranked in rebounds, assists, and shooting percentage. Along with Kaufman (Middlebury), Hynes (Connecticut College), Dillon and Baptista (Tufts), Connnors (Bates), Getman (Hamilton), and Fernandez (Williams), Kerrigan is part of a talented group of first years.

I've mentioned a couple of times this year that Kate Kerrigan is a PLAYER.

[nescacbbrules]

Ronk, yes you have and yes, she is. Looking forward to seeing more of her in tournament play.

[Maine 1]

Very interesting (and effective) lineup for Amherst

[amh63]

Amherst wins over Colby by 20 plus...low scoring.  The lineup that started was a "big" lineup.  What I found interesting was the absence of normal PG Renner in the lineup/ game.