WBB: NESCAC

[Dutchfan]

Congrats to Amherst and Bowdoin on making the final four. Good luck to both of you next weekend.

Unfortunately my Dutch fell short tonight.

[OldCardinal]

Bowdoin was great last night, showing excellent,balanced offense along with their typical stingy defense.  Scoring 66 points on Tufts is very hard to do.  The rebound stat kind of says it all.  Good luck to Amherst and Bowdoin in the final four.  Congrats to Tufts for another great season and to Baptiste and Dillon for tremendous careers.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The Road to Rochester and Salem are nearly complete. Only thing left is to actually hit the road and get the teams, media, fans, and others to their respective championships.

It was a thrilling and, maybe, shocking Sectionals Weekend in Division III. For the women, quite a few exciting games, but four of the top five teams in the country advanced to the Championship Weekend.

Not so much on the men's side. Only one ranked team is headed to Salem. Two weren't even receiving votes in the last Top 25 poll. And two have never been to the final four. Only one host got out of their own gym by cutting down their own nets. It was crazy.

On Sunday night's episode of Hoopsville, Dave and guests try and break down what happened this weekend and what we might be able to expect in Rochester and Salem. Who came up big, who had the bounces go their way, and more. Guests from four of the eight teams will also discuss their roads and initial thoughts on knowing they are two wins away from a national championship.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch the show LIVE starting at 7:00 p.m. ET (did you set your clocks back?) right here: http://bit.ly/2p2BbqB

If you have questions, be sure to email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com or interact with the show via the social media avenues below.

Guests include (in order of appearance):
- Pat Juckem, No. 24 UW-Oshkosh men's coach
- Ashley Shibles, No. 5 Bowdoin women's coach
- Jeff Hans, No. 3 Thomas More women's coach
- Dale Wellman, Nebraska Wesleyan men's coach
- Ryan Scott, D3hoops.com Around the Nation columnist
- Pat Cunningham, Trinity (Texas) men's coach (NABC All-Star Game)

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts instead, you can get access to them or subscribe one of the three following ways (click on the images when necessary):
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville



Don't forget you can always interact with us:
Website: www.d3hoopsville.com
Twitter: @d3hoopsville or #Hoopsville
Facebook: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
Email: hoopsville@d3hoops.com
YouTube: www.youtube.com/user/d3hoopsville

[amh07]

Scranton with one loss and .589 SOS was going to host over a 4-loss and .658 SOS from Tufts (at some point, the SOS number is just too... gaudy when you have multiple losses).

This is 2018.  We are in the era of data science.  Evaluating teams based on SOS and winning percentage is not only old fashioned, but it is prone to bias and confusion. 

NCAA decision-making should never be based on these metrics.

Mathematically, these metrics have big problems, including: 

• When an elite team beats a low-quality team, the elite team's SOS goes down although the win tells us nothing new about the team.  What if Bowdoin played another 30 games this season against teams that never won a game?  Suddenly, its SOS would drop, and its near-perfect record would lose its meaning -- for no good reason.
• Another problem with using SOS and winning percentage is that doing so requires analyzing two numbers.  There is no good way to compare a team with a high SOS and low winning percentage to a team with a low SOS and a high winning percentage.
  

We need a single metric that estimates a team's quality.  There are many algorithms out there that do this.  One example is the Elo rating system used for chess: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system.  Chess and basketball are different in important ways -- such as that chess doesn't have seasons -- so Elo wouldn't fit basketball perfectly.  But there must be a good solution out there.

[polbear73]

The Road to Rochester and Salem are nearly complete. Only thing left is to actually hit the road and get the teams, media, fans, and others to their respective championships.

It was a thrilling and, maybe, shocking Sectionals Weekend in Division III. For the women, quite a few exciting games, but four of the top five teams in the country advanced to the Championship Weekend.

Not so much on the men's side. Only one ranked team is headed to Salem. Two weren't even receiving votes in the last Top 25 poll. And two have never been to the final four. Only one host got out of their own gym by cutting down their own nets. It was crazy.

On Sunday night's episode of Hoopsville, Dave and guests try and break down what happened this weekend and what we might be able to expect in Rochester and Salem. Who came up big, who had the bounces go their way, and more. Guests from four of the eight teams will also discuss their roads and initial thoughts on knowing they are two wins away from a national championship.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch the show LIVE starting at 7:00 p.m. ET (did you set your clocks back?) right here: http://bit.ly/2p2BbqB

If you have questions, be sure to email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com or interact with the show via the social media avenues below.

Guests include (in order of appearance):
- Pat Juckem, No. 24 UW-Oshkosh men's coach
- Ashley Shibles, No. 5 Bowdoin women's coach
- Jeff Hans, No. 3 Thomas More women's coach
- Dale Wellman, Nebraska Wesleyan men's coach
- Ryan Scott, D3hoops.com Around the Nation columnist
- Pat Cunningham, Trinity (Texas) men's coach (NABC All-Star Game)

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts instead, you can get access to them or subscribe one of the three following ways (click on the images when necessary):
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville



Don't forget you can always interact with us:
Website: www.d3hoopsville.com
Twitter: @d3hoopsville or #Hoopsville
Facebook: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
Email: hoopsville@d3hoops.com
YouTube: www.youtube.com/user/d3hoopsville

Adrienne Shibles,

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yeah - it was a typo that I can't explain... but we fixed Shibles name where we needed. I blame DST. LOL

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Scranton with one loss and .589 SOS was going to host over a 4-loss and .658 SOS from Tufts (at some point, the SOS number is just too... gaudy when you have multiple losses).

This is 2018.  We are in the era of data science.  Evaluating teams based on SOS and winning percentage is not only old fashioned, but it is prone to bias and confusion. 

NCAA decision-making should never be based on these metrics.

Mathematically, these metrics have big problems, including: 

• When an elite team beats a low-quality team, the elite team's SOS goes down although the win tells us nothing new about the team.  What if Bowdoin played another 30 games this season against teams that never won a game?  Suddenly, its SOS would drop, and its near-perfect record would lose its meaning -- for no good reason.
• Another problem with using SOS and winning percentage is that doing so requires analyzing two numbers.  There is no good way to compare a team with a high SOS and low winning percentage to a team with a low SOS and a high winning percentage.
  

We need a single metric that estimates a team's quality.  There are many algorithms out there that do this.  One example is the Elo rating system used for chess: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system.  Chess and basketball are different in important ways -- such as that chess doesn't have seasons -- so Elo wouldn't fit basketball perfectly.  But there must be a good solution out there.

Seriously?! How are you going to use data in a division that doesn't have nearly the kind of cross-country cross over and cross-pollination? Many have discussed the idea of using the RPI in DIII, but point out how difficult it is because there isn't enough play across the country by teams.

There also is FAR more than SOS and WL%. RRO, head-to-head, comparable teams. Get to the secondary and non-conf SOS is used. When the committees look at the RRO, they DIVE into the RRO to look at the resumes.

FYI - the SOS does not take into account the game a team plays. In other words, a team is not punished by beating a team because that loss/win is not calculated. They can't do that or you are right, teams would have their SOS's dinged because they hurt their opponent's record.

As for comparing the numbers, NCAA stats has come up with the theory that seems to hold water that a difference of .030 in the SOS is equal to 2-games. We talk about it all the time. A team with 18-6 record and an SOS .030 better than a 20-4 team would be considered equal in the eyes of the committees. That is a very simple equation, but the committees do work on ways to compare, contrast, and understand the numbers better and better.

It is easy to knock on the system. I get that especially for those who don't know the history (not an indication of the poster here). There was a time there was no criteria basically to speak of. Then we went to the QOWI... oh lord that was bad. We moved to the SOS and now for the men the SOS also has a weighted measure based on where games are being played. The numbers are tweaked and each committee each year dives in to better understand the data and make the best decisions possible.

However, unlike one's wishes to go to a simple data-driven system (let's remember how much that screwed up the FBS system for a number of years), it isn't going to happen. Member schools that make the rules in the NCAA want a level of decision making and understanding teams outside of just straight data. Furthermore, as I believe famed poster Mr. Ypsi puts it, the data systems are created by humans anyway... so we can't eliminate problems there as well.

The system works. Is it perfect? No. No system is. Has it gotten better? Hell yes. Does it really miss out on decisions? No. By trying to say Scranton losing somehow showed the system is flawed... is a flawed argument.

[Dutchfan]

The teams that made the final four this season were the top three teams and the fifth ranked team in the d3hoops poll AND were the top four teams in the WBCA poll.

You can complain about how the pods we're set up or how one team had a series of very tough matchups while another team had an easy road to the final four. But the only teams that have any kind of legitimate gripe are the teams that didn't make the tournament. Every team that made the tournament had the chance to make the final four. I'm a Hope College fan. We lost to Thomas More last night. I know we were a final four caliber team, but we lost and it had nothing to do with how the NCAA chose who played who. Ultimately it was because we didn't play as well as we could've. We turned to ball over 21 times, many of which were unforced. We shot terribly from the charity line. We didn't lose because the NCAA used the wrong metric for anything. We lost because yesterday they were better than us.

There is no metric that can perfectly rate teams. Metrics are all based on tangible stats. No metric can rate things like how some teams that every knows are inferior can match up so well against a superior team, or the impact a rivalry gas on games, or the impact of crowd noise or off nights and the nights where a team is "in the zone".

[NE Jeffs Fan]

Good points from both of previous posts.  Enjoyed reading your perspectives.  Looking forward to this coming weekend, and hoping for good games.  All 64 teams can take pride in making the tournament.  Don't know what the current count is, but there were over 400 schools playing D3 Women's Hoops and to be one of the Top 64 is saying something.  Due to travel restrictions in D3 the system will never be perfect, but certainly has gotten better.

[ronk]

 Best wishes to Bowdoin in the Final 4. They had the very good defender(Choate) to defend Scranton's Bridgette Mann and disrupt their offense. And, she was good on offense, also. Frequently, a defensive stopper has limited offensive capability; not so with Taylor.
  Kate Kerrigan played like Kate Kerrigan(7 offensive rebounds are like a dagger mentally and physically to an opponent that's just played defense for 25 seconds and now has to do it again without a break). I've mentioned here on more than 1 occasion that I've admired her play since her AAU days 4 summers ago and got to talk with her dad after the Scranton game about it.
  Coach Shibles was very gracious with her post-game comments about the Scranton game and hosting atmosphere.

[NE Jeffs Fan]

Really expected the video feed to be better.  Score is frozen and can't hear the announcers above the crowd noise.  Need to put mics closer

[NE Jeffs Fan]

Audio on Men's NCAA feed is fine.  Awful from Rochester.  A bit better after halftime of Bowdoin game, but not much.

[Maine 1]

Great night for the NESCAC.  Second straight year where the championship game is between two NESCAC teams.  Bowdoin looked outstanding in totally dominating Wartburg on what was close to a home game for Wartburg.  When Bowdoin plays the way it played last night, they are the best team in the country.  Nothing against Amherst, but Bowdoin is deeper than Amherst and has more players that can score. 
Amherst also had a great night.  If Bowdoin can shoot reasonably well tonight, they should be able to win.  The key for Bowdoin is to try to be a little better with their shot selection at times.  Over the course of this tournament I have seen them take some very quick long threes early in a shot clock, at times where they should work for a better shot.
What have been great to have Tufts at the final four also.

[polbear73]

I agree with Maine 1 in that it certainly looked like Bowdoin could have beaten anyone last night.  But tonight's a different story and Amherst is not just anyone.  It should be a great game tonight and Bowdoin certainly can win and their shot selection will definitely be a key along with their improved rebounding.  Whatever the outcome, congratulations to two great teams from a great conference and may tonight's game be a classic!

[truenorth]

The lady Polar Bears have indeed been a joy to watch this season!  They play very well as a team, and executed extraordinarily well in last night's game vs. Wartburg.  Amherst is obviously one of the toughest defensive teams in the country.  I think it will come down to whether Bowdoin "peaked" in their game last night or whether they can bring the same level of play into tonight's game vs. Amherst.  If they sustain their level of play, I think they'll overcome Amherst's tough D.  We shall see...