WBB: NESCAC

[papabear]

Enough of these stats that mean nothing. I was at the game last night and Barton throws the ball around the gym routinely, into the stands off walls and once and a while makes a fantastic pass that her teamates are not ready for. Cummings is the 7th scorrer and that is because she knows her role. She can score when needed and has scored this season.. Flaherty has got over 300 assists from Cummings and the bottom line is BOWDOIN wins. Barton's team will be lucky to win a NESCAC game come tourney time, and Cummings is a leader much more than the stats show.

[whoarewebobcats]

Saying that Cummings is better than Barton because Bowdoin is better than Bates makes zero sense. I already said that the teams ask different things of each player. You have the no. 2 team in the country, be happy about it. There's no question that Bowdoin is better than Bates, I'm pretty sure I never challenged that. I only brought the stats in because nescachoops was throwing around estimations that weren't true. If Sarah really "threw the ball around the gym occasionally making an assist", then her TOs would be far higher than her assists, so obviously that also is hyperbole. If you find her overrated, fine. If you like Cummings better, that's fine too.

BTW, if you want to throw stats out the window, you're going against the trend in evaluating sports that is being established at every level in every sport. Though I agree that stats don't say everything (namely because we don't measure everything), and have supported my case for Sarah time and again with non-statistical material, they have to be considered.

I never said that Bates would definitely win a tourney game (they'll probably win one, though), nor did I say Bowdoin wouldn't. Bowdoin's success also doesn't reflect Cummings as a leader; and Bates' lesser success doesn't mean that Sarah leads less. They each have different roles, it's a useless comparison, I don't know how many times I have to say it. I was simply clarifying the unsupported statements nescachoops was providing.

[nescac hoops]

wawb,
i think barton is a very good player...with a lot of very big flaws for a pt. guard. she is very good - i just do not think that she is all-american material and maybe not even all conference (maybe 2nd team) worthy this year.
also, who do you see the bobcats beating in the first round? they will most likely be away in the first round against amherst, tufts, or williams - most likely amherst i think, a team they lost to in a game that wasn't all that close.

[whoarewebobcats]

nescachoops- I'm not sure where all of this all-American talk comes from, I definitely never said anything of the sort. Was she nominated last year? I wouldn't say she is "all-American" material, at least this year. She certainly isn't flawless, I just happen to enjoy watching her and would want her running my team.

Looking at the standings, they would play Amherst is the season ended today, but they would host the game, and the game they lost (65-51) was at Amherst. I can see them winning at home, though the Alumni crowd post-05 has been disappointing (for both the men and the women). But, looking at the schedule left, it looks like they should go (using present rankings) 2-2, leaving them at 5-4 in the conference, probably not good enough to hold on to the 4th seed. So maybe you're right. I honestly (obviously) didn't put a whole lot of thought into that part of it, I was just responding to the insinuations made. This has been a pretty under-whelming year as far as the girls go--other than Val's emergence as a pretty serious player and Lauren Yanofsky, the whole team has looked pretty lax in my opinion. But I wouldn't sleep on them in the first round, either, because they have plenty of talent and a good coach, they just need to put things together. Part of that is getting higher-percentage shots (the games I've seen have Matia shooting from too far outside, just like Stockwell for the boys--but I'm a traditionalist in that sense: if you're big, stay underneath), and part of that responsibility lies with Sarah to create those looks.

[nescac hoops]

wawb,
http://www.d3hoops.com/tow/wompreallam07.htm
she was nominated as a preseason all american. not by you, but by d3hoops. i don't think she is worhty of it - great player but not an all american.
bates is ahead of amherst right now HOWEVER amherst has already played bowdoin, and bates hasn't played their conference game with them, which is at bowdoin i believe. amherst has games remaining with all the CONN team - wesleyan is the only game i could see them losing, however they did beat them already in a non-conference game. thus, i have a feeling amherst will host that game given the two team's remaining schedules and that amherst has the head-to-head advantage.

[whoarewebobcats]

ah, well, 4th team...I don't know, I've never seen any of those other girls. Hard to say, but I wouldn't say her play of this year has been "all-American" stature, in part because of her own flaws and in part because of Bates'.

I agree completely about the scheduling the rest of the way, that's why I forecasted Bates at 5-4 at the end, and probably not good enough for the 4th seed.

Yes, Bates' conference game is at Bowdoin, in a week or two. I would give them a little more chance than most only because having just played them, I think a lot of Bowdoin's tendencies, etc., will be fresh in Bates' mind (obviously this goes both ways, but that sort of advantage usually goes to the lesser team). It's sort of like how they say in professional football that it's hard to beat the same team three times in a year, even if it's the best and worst teams matching up. If teams are familiar with one another, there's more of a chance of an upset. But, don't get me wrong, I don't *expect* Bates to win, Bowdoin is no. 2 in the country for a reason, and Bates didn't receive a single top 25 vote for a reason.

[papabear]

Ok this bates homer will not change his opinion obviously. Bates has zero 000000 chance against BOWDOIN at Bowdoin the last weekend of the season, with senior week and all the other reasons Pemper would not allow a loss. How can you even think that, they should have lost by twenty the other night to Bowdoin at Bates. The place will be packed and it will be the last time the Bowdoin seniors get to play bates. Look for a big game by Flaherty and Cummings who both will want to go out at home against their rivals in style. Bowdoin by 18

[whoarewebobcats]

Papabear, please read my posts more carefully.

First, I didn't say I thought Bates would win. It is unlikely. I'm a little tired of repeating myself to you, but I will because you don't seem to be reading me correctly: Bowdoin is a better team than Bates. By a pretty significant margin.

But I can't let you get away with the way you provide evidence for what you say. There is never a game in which a team as zero chance of winning. If they show up and field players, they immediately have a chance. If they have some talent, then they have a little more of a chance. I think you get where I'm going. Did I say Bates had a great chance against Bowdoin? My exact words: "I would give them a little more chance than most," i.e., most people, like you think they have zero chance and will lose big, whereas I'd put them in the 10% range. Second, a coach cannot just command victory. "Pemper would not allow a loss?" What, then, would she do if they did indeed lose by some mysterious fluke? It is without question that she will have her team prepared to win. I don't think the rivalry is as heated as it was a few years ago since Bates isn't as serious of a contender, but it's obviously a game Bowdoin wants to win, and a time in the season where they want to develop momentum if they have national championship aspirations, which I'm sure they do. I don't doubt that the place will be packed, and I don't doubt that Flaherty will want to go out big. Bowdoin is the overwhelming favorite, no one denies this.

So, no, I won't change my opinion. But I'd appreciate it if you understood my opinion. I would expect Bowdoin to win, much as I expected them to in the non-conference game, which, you'll remember, was at Bates (and by the way, statements like "they should have lost by twenty the other night" have absolutely no validity. What didn't go Bowdoin's way that kept them from winning by 20? Bates had the lead down to 2 or 3 with a few minutes left despite losing Matia to injury. I wasn't at the game, but I did listen to it on BatesCast. Also, if they "should have lost by 20" at home the other night, why do you project them to lose only by 18 at Bowdoin? That seems illogical.). I am open to changing my opinions on things--if not, why would I even read other people's posts, or even be on here in the first place?--but arguments without evidence don't change my opinion. Your post failed by providing unjustified claims and misunderstanding my stance.

I'll state again, just for clarity: Bowdoin is better than Bates, and I expect them to win.

And, I'll state again: please read my posts more carefully.

Moving on: that game is a week away--anyone have any feelings on the games slated for this weekend?

[papabear]

In response to whoarewebobcats:
    They  (BOWDOIN) have lost one time in the last five years at home. It was at the buzzer on a 25 footer last month. They are coming down to the stretch of NESCAC and heading to the postseason and will want to go in on a role plus they just don't like Bates. Marta was a non factor at all the other night so that is irrelevant. Evidenced by Flaherty taking 12 free throws. It is senior weekend in a packed Bowdoin gym. If you give them a 10 percent chance to win your nuts. I understand that you are not claiming they are better I am just telling you the percentages since you like to work with them so much are 1 out of 76  or 1.125 percent.... Then take into account the previous statements above and I would give them about a 1-250 chance of winning. Those are the facts I enjoy your post's but believe they are misguided in your bias towards a average at best team.

[whoarewebobcats]

Now we're talkin! It doesn't surprise me that Matia was a non-factor, part of what has underwhelmed me about the Bobcats this year is her inability to be a dominate force underneath. I wish she had a little of the mean streak that Meg has. To me, the team plays a little soft as is--that's why I loved that 05 team (that and that they were much better overall!)...toughness all around. I still have hopes for Matia--she has all kinds of talent, there's no denying, I just don't think she's using it properly, or maybe defenses just focus on her too much and Val looks better playing against weaker defenders/less attention, who knows.

[nescac hoops]

as a male i found the front page article on d3 hoops on the upper right hand corner about the louisiana college team "walking out" to be a real shocker. apparently one the girls to walk out of practiced cited the following reason, as told by her father... "They didn't do it to hurt the basketball program," said Lynn Peairs, Ashley's father. "They came into a program where basketball was secondary and helping the girls become well-rounded, moral, Christian girls was more important. I think they knew after a week or so (into the preseason) that that program is no longer there." i guess it's shocking to think that girls in this day in age think like that, especially from an athlete nonetheless. glad to be on the east coast.

i think the games in medford and lewiston will be the most interesting. the status of kostakis will be a major factor in the williams game - if she isn't healthy, i don't see the game being terribly close. however, if she is i think the ephs will have a tough win. i think midd-tufts will be an intersting game to see where both teams stand but i suspect tufts will win. midd-bates will be a close one if kostakis is not healthy. and obviously, i think the game of the weekend will b/t the ephs and jumbos to declare 2nd place in the conference. ephs will win a tight one.

[Red1]

Bates 60 Williams 59.  To answer the arguments as to whether Bates will get a home game this win certainly helped, and the team who would likely get left out?  Williams as they would lose the tie breaker to Bates.  There's still a lot of basketball to go, but I have to think that this win puts Bates into the top 4.

To use my alliteration of the day:  I'm perplexed by their persistant perimeter play.  Williams best players are O'Malley and Miller.  There strength is size, strength, and total domination of the paint.  On top of that Matia Kostakis is out with an ankle injurty (sustained against Bowdoin).  Williams should have been able to pick on Beckwith at will because she's just way to small to handle the big strong 6-foot centers without getting seriously into foul trouble early, and I reference Eileen Flaherty's ability to handle Beckwith relatively routinley to back up this statment.  Although I'm concerned with her foul trouble, Kostakis is a better matchup because that lob that Beckwith can never reach is not high enough to elude a taller Kostakis (and if it were it would also be over Flaherty's head and go out of bounds).

My question is this:  If Williams best players, and their strength, is in the paint, and Bates' weakness is strength in the paint given their lack of defensive size to be able to stop opponents without getting into foul trouble and having Kostakis out with an injury,  then why didn't Williams ever try to pound the ball in to the centers and big forwards and take control with strong post play, control of the paint, and the ownership of the boards that they had anyway?

More than half of Williams shots was from the outside (it reminded me of the mens team) and although they weren't bad, they weren't good either.  Bates won the points in the paint battle 24-20.  This is inexcusable for a team whose captain is the center.  Maggie miller had only 3 points (all on foul shots) and she only had 3 shot attempts from the field.  Why didn't the Ephs best player get a lot more touches, and why didn't the Ephs try to post?  The reason that Miller only got 3 shots is not the Bates defense, as good as they were, but more because of the small number of attempts that Williams made to go inside.

As much as I enjoyed the Bates victory, I wouldn't be fair if I didn't consider the possibility that Williams choice of strategy turned into their own worst enemy.  Bates played well, but I've got to believe that Williams would have done better if they'd played to their strength.

Cheers,
Red1

[whoarewebobcats]

What a game! Bates wins 60-59 without Matia, and despite shooting 32.5%. Quick officiating note: Um, the officiating was pretty terrible, on both sides. The refs blew a lot of calls in Williams' favor in the first half, made up for it in the first part of the second half, and then did a pretty decent job at the end of the game. It was one of those weird games where the fans hated every call, and the refs managed to make the wrong call on many different plays, ultimately I think relatively evenly, but individually missed a lot of calls.

The most exciting part of the game, especially given all the talk about Sarah on this board recently, was a little personal drama on the side. She played a strong first half but in the second half with 7 minutes left made two turnovers on consecutive possessions, causing Murphy to yell, to no one in particular "Get her out of there!" and push Maggie toward the scorer's table. When Sarah came out, he instructed her to take care of the ball, and then said, "Enough with the turnovers--you're a junior" and walked away. It was kind of dramatic, very movie-like. Williams immediately closed what had been (I think) a 4 pt gap, taking the lead within about 40 seconds, and Murphy called for Sarah to go back in. He was very nice with her the rest of the way through--at every timeout he would say something encouraging to her and pat her on the head or smile or something. And she came through--no more TOs, and then with a minute left down a point, Sarah got the ball at the foul line, back to the basket, looked for passes and seeing nothing took a step back and pulled up for an 18-footer. As soon as she released it, she started to go back on D--no question she would make it. Williams scored, leaving Bates with the ball with 28 seconds, down a point. Murphy drew up a play they had already run: get Sarah the ball on the right wing off a pick from Lauren Yanofsky, who then curled to the basket looking for a lob pass. Since they had already seen it, Williams pounced, doubling Sarah and deflecting her pass. Val came up with it and when the D collapsed on her she hit Teal on the baseline, who calmly laid the ball in. 13 seconds left, Williams timeout. Bates put on a full court trap, Williams crossed the half court line with about 7 seconds and got the ball to no. 14, Meghan Stetson, who had 33 points on the game, tried to free herself for a shot, couldn't, kicked the ball to the wing, and Lauren Yanofsky deflected the shot as the clock expired. Alumni exploded (kind of a pathetic crowd actually, but those of us who were there were happy), and Murphy couldn't contain himself. I've never seen him so happy. It was a masterful coaching job, evenly pacing 2nd half timeouts to keep the girls fresh and aggressive in their 2-3 zone (caused 25 turnovers), motivating Sarah, and calling plays.

Val finished with 27, 8 boards; Lauren Yanofsky had 11 rebounds and did all kinds of great things (despite shooting 0-12), Maggie Fitzgerald hustled and scored 10, Sarah had 8 assists vs. 3 turnovers.

And did I mention Matia didn't play?

Very exciting game--especially encouraging given that they have been pretty lax on D all year and not very dynamic on offense. A thrilling night in Alumni, showing promise for the future, and now at 4-2, maybe some for the present. I won't be able to make it to tomorrow's game, and I kind of worry about a letdown after such an emotional win, but who knows. Wonderful night in Lewiston.

[whoarewebobcats]

Red-- I was also confused about that--did you notice about halfway through the 2nd half, after no. 14 missed a few consecutive shots, they looked underneath and got a couple of quick easy layups? Where did that go? One thing I'll say in Bates' favor about that was that many times when the ball was dumped to the middle of the zone, Val knocked it away, or one of the wing players--usually Maggie or Sarah--would collapse and either knock it away or force them back outside. A strong defensive effort by Bates, mostly based on energy, but I definitely agree--odd strategy by Williams, and they never adjusted to the zone, they just tried to shoot around it. That usually doesn't work over the course of 40 minutes.

[remsleep]

From Red: My question is this:  If Williams best players, and their strength, is in the paint, and Bates' weakness is strength in the paint given their lack of defensive size to be able to stop opponents without getting into foul trouble and having Kostakis out with an injury,  then why didn't Williams ever try to pound the ball in to the centers and big forwards and take control with strong post play, control of the paint, and the ownership of the boards that they had anyway

Err...at the risk of annoying Simon and Feces.....I respectfully submit that the Williams program is not being coached at the highest possible level......