WBB: NESCAC

[deiscanton]

Bates pulled off the upset, 71-55, over Tufts today.  Bates took the lead from the opening tip and never looked back.

Tufts finishes at 6-3 in NESCAC play and will be the #4 seed.

NESCAC Quarterfinal matchups-- Saturday, February 20

#8 seed Wesleyan at #1 seed Amherst-- 3 PM
#7 seed Trinity (CT) at #2 seed Colby-- 2 PM
#6 seed Bates at #3 seed Williams-- 2 PM
#5 seed Bowdoin at #4 seed Tufts-- 3 PM

Wesleyan and Middlebury finished tied at 2-7 in NESCAC play, however Wesleyan defeated Middlebury in the head-to-head tiebreaker to get the #8 seed.

[sumfun]

I thought Bates might pull off that upset.  They were game against Amherst, and that gym was probably even hotter than before.  Wonder if the league can do something about the heat factor at Bates.  Not good for fans, not good for players.  Congrats Amherst on a great season!

[Laserty]

How many NESCAC teams do we think could get NCAA bids? 4? Could be the most represented conference in the tourney. Amherst is a lock, Colby is virtually a lock. Then 2 bids between Tufts, Bowdoin, and Williams?

[sumfun]

Tufts will make it as they are still in the top 25.  Williams and Bowdoin will depend on how they do in conference tourney.  4 teams would be great, but not sure NCAA will go for that.

[amh63]

The most recent NCAA regional rankings has four NESAC teams ranked high, with Bowdoin the lowest.  On the men's board, there is much chatter about where the conference teams will be put.  If there are 4 teams for the women's NCAA, the placement of the teams should lead to much speculation.  Out of region, in region, etc.  Any thoughts if Amherst, Colby, Tufts and either Williams or Bowdoin  get selected.

[deiscanton]

Sumfun--

The D3Hoops.com Top 25 poll has nothing to do with the selection process.  

However, I have been analyzing all 5 NESCAC teams with the primary criteria and secondary criteria given by the NCAA in mind, and I can make a even stronger case for the NESCAC deserving all 5 of their women's teams in this year than I could for the UAA last year.

Last year, the UAA got 4 teams in (Wash U with the automatic bid, and Pool C's going to NYU, Rochester, and Brandeis).

I made an argument then that Chicago, with a .680 regional percentage (17-8 regional record) and a high enough strength of schedule, was just as deserving of a Pool C on primary criteria.   However, Chicago did not get in, and the reason why they did not get in was because they suffered an in-region loss to Carroll in non-conference play-- their only in-region loss to a team not regionally ranked.   Carroll finished 13-10, 8-8 in the Midwest Conference last year.   Had Chicago beaten Carroll, then the Maroons would have been in the NCAA field with an 18-7 regional record.

Right now, all 5 NESCAC teams regionally ranked have regional percentages over .700, and all 5 of those NESCAC teams will finish with regional percentages over .700 no matter what happens in the NESCAC tournament.  This is very important this year because we have 5 teams with perfect in-region records in DIII nationally on the women's side right now-- Amherst being one of them.  (The others are Hope, Kean, Christopher Newport, and Farmingdale State.)

On the strength of schedule criteria, as of this week's regional rankings, there are 10 teams nationally that have strength of schedule numbers over .600-- as noted by the NCAA.  6 of those are NESCAC teams-- Williams, Amherst, Bowdoin, Tufts, Wesleyan, and Bates.  2 of those are from the UAA-- Brandeis and Chicago.  The other two are Richard Stockton and UW-Whitewater.

Colby has a strength of schedule number of .581 this week, has an in-region percentage of .857 (at 18-3 in region record), and is unbeaten in 3 games out-of-region.  Colby has a record of 2-3 against regionally ranked opponents.  I don't see a problem with Colby getting in as a Pool C-- the Mules are currently ranked #3 in the Northeast.

Tufts is currently ranked at #2 in the Northeast with a regional percentage of .842 and a strength of schedule number of .624 as of last Sunday.  Tufts has gotten another regional victory over Worcester State since then to improve their regional percentage.    Tufts is 4-2 against regionally ranked opponents this week.  I see nothing on their schedule right now that I could use to deny Tufts a Pool C bid.

Amherst has locked up a bid with their perfect record-- 8-0 against regionally ranked opponents is the best in Division III.  Illinois Wesleyan at 5-1 against regionally ranked opponents is second nationally in that regard.

Which brings us to Williams and Bowdoin.

Williams is currently ranked at #4 in the Northeast with an in-region record of 18-5 (.783 in-region percentage) and a strength of schedule number of .633 (tied with Bowdoin for the highest strength of schedule number in DIII, according to the NCAA.)  Williams plays Bates this week-- if Williams loses this week, they finish at 18-6 in-region (.750 in-region percentage).  Williams is 3-5 against regionally ranked opponents  Their 3 regionally ranked wins are against Skidmore (#2 in the East-- 200 mile game), Tufts, and Bowdoin.

The only thing on the secondary criteria that could be used to deny Williams a Pool C bid is their out-of-region loss against Baldwin Wallace-- tied for first place in the OAC along with Mt Union and Capital currently.  However, that only comes into play if Williams's primary criteria is even with a Great Lakes Pool C candidate.  Mt Union is currently ranked #6 in the Great Lakes, with the other two OAC teams tied with them are not regionally ranked.

Saturday morning update to post:  Rochester from the UAA is now also vying for a Pool C bid with their upset loss to Brandeis in the Palestra.   Rochester has a secondary criteria win over Baldwin-Wallace, the same team that beat Williams in that tip-off tourney.  Should Rochester and Williams be on the table at the same time with only one Pool C bid left to give, and should Rochester and Williams be even at the end on the primary criteria, I believe that Rochester will get a Pool C bid over Williams based on the result against that common opponent.  Right now, though, Williams has the stronger strength of schedule number-- so a Williams win today bolsters their case for a Pool C.

Bowdoin has a regional record of 16-5 for a .762 in-region winning percentage as of last Sunday.  Their strength of schedule of .633 according to the NCAA is tied with Williams for highest in that category.  Bowdoin is ranked #6 in the Northeast this week.  Bowdoin finishes with a regional percentage of .727 if they lose on Saturday to Tufts.

Bowdoin is 2-5 against regionally ranked opponents this week-- both of those wins coming early this season against Eastern Connecticut and Colby.  Bowdoin has not gotten a regionally ranked win since December.  Bowdoin's regionally ranked losses are to Emmanuel. Colby, Williams, Tufts, and Amherst.  Bowdoin will play their 8th game against a regionally ranked opponent this Saturday.

Bowdoin is 3-0 out-of-region with a secondary criteria win in January over Skidmore, the #2 ranked team in the East currently, if Bowdoin should need that to bolster their case for a Pool C.

That is the state of the NESCAC teams currently going into Saturday's NESCAC tournament.

[Title9Fan]

That is the state of the NESCAC teams currently going into Saturday's NESCAC tournament.

Outstanding synopsis - thank you.

[sumfun]

Great recap.  Thanks.  Time will tell, but fun to see the NESCAC so strong this year.

[Laserty]

The next question then is where will all those teams fit? They won't keep all 5 teams in the northeast region bracket. So, where will they go?

[Pat Coleman]

We can expect more than 10 New England teams, perhaps well more than 10, to qualify for the tournament. Some will filter out into the "East" bracket and "Atlantic" bracket.

[deiscanton]

The NCAA will try to keep teams within 500 miles of their respective campuses for first and second round action, but other than that, if you are not hosting a pod in the first/second rounds, prepare to do some travelling and stay in a hotel for the weekend if you want to personally attend the games.

Last year, for example, Tufts had to travel to Moravian for first and second round action-- Amherst hosted a pod at Lefrak Gym (with Babson, Emmanuel, and S. Maine in that pod), and Bowdoin hosted a pod at Morrell Gym that included Muhlenberg from Allentown, PA. (Westfield State and Castleton State were in that pod, I believe.)  Tufts defeated the host school in the first round, but lost in the second round to the College of New Jersey (which eventually went to the "Final Four").

Updated correction:  Yes, at the time, the Tufts court was too short to host first and second round playoff games.  Since then, Cousens Gym has been renovated, and if Tufts wins on Saturday, the Jumbos will be more likely to host a pod on the first weekend for the first time in school history.

[Laserty]

Tufts would have probably hosted the first weekend last year. BUT, their gym wasn't quite legal at that time. (Too short)

[feces monkey]

If there's a bright side to Saturday's outcome, we've avoided another misogynistic rant out of Senator Frost since two of the four coaches are male. Next week's Amherst-Bates game might replace Christmas, July 4th and Thanksgiving in terms of joyous events for Frosty. As long as his wife remembers to iron his shirts, that is...

We can expect more than 10 New England teams, perhaps well more than 10, to qualify for the tournament. Some will filter out into the "East" bracket and "Atlantic" bracket.

Captain Obvious, to the rescue!

Bowdoin should decline any further NESCAC or NCAA bids, take the travel money and put it towards lowering the concession stand costs at the hockey rink for the NESCAC tourney. It will save the Lady Bears two quick losses.

[sumfun]

In the Bates/Williams game yesterday, it seemed like live stats froze for quite a while.  In reading review on Bates website, it says there was a 20 minute break for a player injury, but no mention of who or what.  Anyone know any scoop?

[eph partisan]

New to the boards, so I do not know what the etiquette is in terms of discussing injured players, but it was an Eph who was hurt. She was hit going up for a layup and landed on her back. The injury was not ultimately serious - something like a herniated disc - but they did not want to move her until they could bring a stretcher because it was a back injury.