WBB: NESCAC

[magicman]

Magicman...Happy days are here again I see....with your crusade!
You know that it is still snowing somewhere in Maine!  Oh forgot...you live in Plattsburgh .
Me..do not need the height...just want to be as astute as you wrt to BB.

Plus K for the compliment but you are as astute as anyone wrt to basketball! And forget Maine, it's still snowing here in Plattsburgh with another 8 to 12 inches on the way between this evening and Monday.   

[Maine 1]

Although there are still games this weekend and next, I think the NESCAC playoff order is pretty well set.  Tufts and Bowdoin will play next week for the number one seed, although Tufts almost got knocked off last night at Hamilton--Hamilton was up by three with 15 seconds to go, but Tufts tied the game with a three and then pulled away in overtime. Tufts has a tough game at Williams today, but should win. Amherst probably has the third seed sowed up, and Williams is in good shape at the four, unless Conn College knocks them off next weekend (which is not out of the realm of possibility).  Colby, with losses to Williams and Conn College, is locked in 6th, and Middlebury at 7th.  The final spot will come down to next weekends Hamilton/Wesleyan contest.  I think Hamilton is better than Wesleyan, but has lost some tough close games.  I don't see any of the lower seeds  (6-8) pulling a first round upset, but the 4-5 game can always go either way.

[MENESCACFAN]

Tough on for Bates today.  Kept it close right to the end before yet another loss.  Sadly looking like a winless ear for the 'Cats.  Very different story to the mens side!

[polbear73]

Bowdoin lost senior captain Megan Phelps to a broken ankle suffered in practice before the team boarded the bus to Middlebury last Saturday. They managed to pull away in the second half of that game, but remains to be seen how that loss will affect them this weekend. The Bates game is always a battle and expect a game game vs. Tufts.

[bowdoin74]

Very difficult year for Megan.  Her father, Scott, six days shy of 45 years old, passed away in October, 2014.  Megan is the oldest of four children and a tremendous leader.  She is a gritty player from Mount Desert Island, the largest island off the coast of Maine, and grew up in Southwest Harbor. Every senior knows how many possible games are left in their career and it's exceptionally tough when those final games are unexpectedly taken away.  Megan's dad's death and her season ending injury will provide strong motivation for the Polar Bears as they finish out their season.   

[MENESCACFAN]

What a truly sad story that is.  Thoughts and prayers out to this girl as she gets herself in a good place life wise.

[Maine 1]

Very sad for the senior from Bowdoin-terrible way to end a career. Certainly takes a bit away from today's Bowdoin-Tufts game, which is for the Top seed.  I think Tufts should win, they are very strong inside and without Phelps, this will hurt Bowdoin. 
Other than fighting for the 7th and 8th seed, the 8 teams are set for the playoffs.  I don't see any of the Top three (Tufts, Bowdoin, Amherst) losing next weekend.  Conn College could beat Williams, although Williams did hold them off last night.  I don't see Colby beating Amherst, since Colby's game is shooting and making threes, and Amherst does an excellent job of not allowing teams to take uncontested threes.  Tufts totally shut down Colby's offense last night by running the Colby shooters off the three point line, and making Colby take twos.  Hamilton could give Bowdoin a tough game, if Bowdoin is the two seed.

[d3wbbfan]

First off, I'd like to add my best wishes to Bowdoin's Megan Phelps, her family and to her Bowdoin family. They had a "32" written in cardboard, and placed it at the end of their bench today at Cousens. Wonderful show of respect by her team.

Secondly, congrats to Coach Murphy and his Bates team for getting their second consecutive Senior Day home win over Colby. You never want to see anyone go "0-fer" in conference. And since Colby was already locked into the #6 seed for the upcoming NESCAC playoffs, win or lose, I wouldn't think Coach Veilleux was overly distraught over today's result. Coach Murphy's teams have struggled recently, but he has a long history of success up there, is a class act, and I will continue to root for Bates to come back strong in WBB.

The Tufts 66, Bowdoin 55 final score on Senior Day today appears much closer than the actual game was. It was 54-30 Tufts after a Kanner jumper with 13:17 to go, and from there, it was mostly Coach Berube taking the air out of the ball (dare I even use that analogy around teams from suburban Boston these days?)      resulting in a 25-12 game-ending Polar Bear "run", of sorts.

Baptista is a gifted offensive talent, and one who rarely takes a bad shot (unusual for a FY.) She's also had some great moments on D, and appears to be making strides towards fouling less during the past 2-3 games - her #1 bug-a-boo during NESCAC play. Melissa is going to be a starter and major contributor for the Jumbos next year, and will soon be a star in this league. Last weekend, Coach Berube reverted back to an early season, bad habit of hers. She had Roberson on the floor, and Lee on the bench during the last 4:00 of a close game. Excepting for foul trouble/injury, that can't ever happen again. It's a little thing that really matters, as it could really cost her and her team. Trust me. This is Tufts' year, and they obviously want to make their run last as long as possible next month. Lee has this amazing knack for doing something positive when it is needed most: a clutch pass, rebound or shot. It is a gift, and it is 99% basketball instinct. The more pressure, the better she plays. Roberson, for all her relentless effort, just does not possess this trait/knack. In fact, Lee single-handedly saved the Jumbos' perfect NESCAC season at Hamilton last weekend. Coming out of a TO, and down 3 with :16 seconds left in regulation, Lee calmly drained a mega-clutch 3-ball to tie it up, to get the game into OT, where Tufts ended up winning by 7. I've seen players like Josie Lee before. They are rare and valuable. And that's exactly what players like that do. Help you win you important, close games.

Sara Binkhorst (7-12 FG; 5-5 from 3; 4-4 FT for 23 pts; 7 assists) did everything she could for Bowdoin. Shannon Brady added 12, but that was basically it. I honestly enjoy how pumped up and excited the Bowdoin WBB fans get when their team is playing well. I like seeing people happy. Do they get a little carried away at times? Sure. But I don't know a loyal fan anywhere who doesn't do the same. And there's no reason for them to still not be very optimistic, despite today's loss. The fun part is really only getting started.

To me, only *one* 14-15 NESCAC team drew the "very shortest straw", and had to play their lone NESCAC game at both Tufts and Bowdoin on the road both of the last two seasons (due to the league ending the M/WBB DH's): Amherst. And those happened to be the LJ's only two losses on the season. Do I think Amherst loses to Bowdoin at LeFrak this season? No. Or even to Tufts at LeFrak? Who knows? Although they clearly have flaws as a team, I think it's at least a 50/50 possibility that were it not for this wacky schedule quirk, Amherst may well be undefeated right now. Still, if I'm Gromacki, I'm happy it played out this way, because he got to see his team "exposed" against other top teams, in a way he might not have if those were home games. The great part now? None of that matters anymore. It's basically a reset. Because, barring a repeat of the #8 upset of #1 that we saw 2 years ago, NESCAC fans will likely get to watch Bowdoin and Amherst play at a neutral site (Tufts). May the better team that day win!

Kelsey Morehead update: Although she was in uniform this weekend, she did not play. Luckily, SR Ali Berman, who played her 1st 3 years at Tufts, was a halftime guest/2nd-half color analyst today. She happened to mention that Kelsey was "one more week away" from getting back out the floor. Since no info was ever released on what exactly her December injury is/was, I found that information valuable. And although FY Lauren Dillon has done an absolutely stellar job in her stead, Morehead's a SR, a 4-year starter, and brings more offensive punch to the Jumbos.

Sunday's Middlebury at Amherst NESCAC finale has no impact on the 4 playoff matchups, since Middlebury wins the tiebreak by beating Hamilton head-to-head, and should the Panthers pull the upset Sunday, they lost to Colby head-to-head. So here's next Saturday's NESCAC quarterfinals:

#8 Hamilton at #1 Tufts
#7 Middlebury at #2 Bowdoin
#6 Colby at #3 Amherst
#5 Conn College at #4 Williams

(Wesleyan, Trinity and Bates did not qualify.)

[nescacbbrules]

d3wbbfan, I find agreement with many of your comments here and elsewhere, but several points in this post suggest alternative points of view, at least from this Jumbo fan's perspective. First, your "Last weekend, Coach Berube reverted back to an early season, bad habit of hers. She had Roberson on the floor, and Lee on the bench during the last 4:00 of a close game. Excepting for foul trouble/injury, that can't ever happen again. It's a little thing that really matters, as it could really cost her and her team. Trust me." As I have noted before, you, despite your protests, have an "offense" lean in your player analysis. Josie hit, as you note, an incredibly clutch 3-pointer at Hamilton to send the game to OT. Why was she in the game? She is a fearless, if not Foley-accurate, shooter, and Coach Berube undoubtedly wanted the best long range options in. I think Wu, Foley, Dillon, Kanner and Lee were on the floor. She knew Hamilton would try to blanket Foley and Lee was an open, early option. The game situation demanded it, and as you suggest, Josie delivered. Obviously other game situation demand your best defensive options. Berube has always said the the best defenders start,  and Emma is just that. She is quick, strong, tough, and experienced. Josie has had a breakout season, and has earned her playing time and the trust of the coach. She has some of the most creative assists on the team, and is a fine rebounder for her size. However, remember that she played mostly clean-up minutes last year, while Emma was a regular on a FF team. With all due respect, I like Coach Berube's calculations on who plays at crunch time. Trust her.
As a Gromacki stalwart, or apologist in some contexts, do you offer him such critiques about his substitution patterns?

Your second point, that Amherst might well have beaten Tufts at LeFrak without the scheduling anomalies of this season, belies the Jan 16 23-point pounding that the LJ's and Gromacki took at Cousens and is specious at best. How many points are LeFrak and their fans worth? Last year the Jumbos won both games at Cousens by 7 and 16. Your implied notion that LeFrak would have made such an enormous difference suggests that Tufts may have been the better team in 2012-2013 where they lost two by 5 and 6. Each of those games I attended and they were close throughout. Is it not possible that Tufts is and has been the better team for the past 3 seasons notwithstanding Gromacki and some home court magic? Some Jumbo fans believe that if it were not for Bowdoin's upset win at Cousens in the prelim round of the NESCAC tournament, that second Amherst-Tufts game would likely have had a different outcome. In any case, the NESCAC tournament and NCAAs will be great, no doubt.

[jumpshot]

Ever notice that each year a key ingredient in amHerst's women's success is due to their ability to pass the ball ---often a weakness in many other less consistently good teams?

Say, amh63, isn't time your major capital gifts be used to upgrade amHerst's webcast's which continue to flutter ----have gone from first to worst in recent years....

[Maine 1]

Regarding the thought that maybe Amherst would be undefeated if they had played Tufts and Bowdoin at Amherst--I watched both of those games, and Amherst was totally outplayed in both games.  I thought both Bowdoin and Amherst were the better teams in each of those games.  Tufts is clearly the top team in the league.  That doesn't mean that Amherst can't beat them (assuming they get another shot at them).  I do think that Amherst has to improve over the way they played the last time they played both of those teams.  Specifically, they need to get back to what has been the hallmark of the top Amherst teams on offense, which is very quick ball movement, and getting good open shots, and not necessarily settling for threes. 
I do think that Tufts looks very strong going into this tournament, and if they up to their capabilities, they should win the championship. I expect to see the top four seeds advance.  I don't think Hamilton can stay with Tufts.  Middlebury could give Bowdoin a little bit of trouble if they are on.  Amherst is so good at denying teams open three point looks, that even if they struggle offensively, I can't see Colby beating them.  Plus Colby doesn't have an answer for Robertson.  Conn College could upset Williams.

[nescacbbrules]

Maine1, I know you meant to say the both Bowdoin and "Tufts" were the better teams in those games. I saw both and agree. The Bowdoin win was no fluke, although Morrell is very tough for visitors to win in: the Polar Bear women won 76 consecutive games from 2001-2007. Amherst certainly can win against the best, but in the first game Tufts rotated beautifully to their shooters on the perimeter and doubled so quickly in the post that Amherst's passing offense was neutralized. If the top 4 seeds come through, the semifinals will be very interesting. Williams has some of the most athletic big girls in the NESCAC. They can put it on the floor, post up, and shoot from the perimeter. Although I have only seen them twice this season, it has looked like Coach Manning has some challenge controlling the team, particularly on the offensive end. There is, from my perspective, too much freedom to take the first open shot or to attack off the dribble a team defense that is ready to help. Their athleticism and skills work against lesser opponents, but the disciplined defenses give them trouble.

[Maine 1]

Thanks for correcting me--yes I did Mean that Tufts was the better team

[amh63]

Amherst wins over Midd on Senior Day in LeFrak.  Good win for the the two seniors who started...Meg Robertson....I will miss her play..and she played well today.  Taylor Smith...a walk-on...guard is the other senior.  I will miss her too.  Her grandfather is a classmate of mine and a fine QB on the football team.
Believe the team has the bench and experience to make a run for the title...whether the games are in LeFrak or on the road.  If the key games ahead will be against the top seeds....it does not matter.
Go Jeffs!

[d3wbbfan]

nescacbbrules, I very much enjoyed your thoughtful post. Thanks for reading, and taking the time to reply.

You are free to opine that my focus is mostly on offense, despite the fact that it truly never has been. What I have observed is that, at the DIII level, quality defensive players on top teams exist in surprisingly large numbers. Moreso than consistent point producers at DIII, for whatever reason.

I fully understand that Roberson played a lot last year as well, while Lee did not. In previous years, I thought Coach Berube gave her veterans a serious edge in PT over her newcomers. I understand why she would do that. Some conventional wisdom deems that to be a prudent approach. Experience/deeper understanding of her system/loyalty/trust/more confidence. That said, I believe many DIII coaches put too much importance on those things. I actually believe Josie Lee was a "casualty", if you will, of that thinking last season. She was a noteworthy talent in HS. IMO, the only reason Lee sat last year was because Coach giving minutes to FR, even over the SO Roberson, has historically been something Carla just hasn't done. You could even see that with a major talent like North last year. Carla far preferred the comfort level of say, SR Ali Rocchi, usually citing inherent defensive deficiencies present in all FYs. Yes, those do exist. I feel those concerns are overblown, however. Especially for a young big with a natural gift for rebounding.

Berube and I only ever disagreed on how to best address the issue. Carla wanted her FYs to learn by watching. I wanted her best FYs to learn on the job. By doing, by playing, by making mistakes in-game, during pre-season. These are smart kids. They learn these lessons fairly quickly. My experience has been that, after about 10 games or so, they usually cease to become a liability on D, and are basically good to go. And if they happen to "relapse", you can always sit them/have a teaching moment then.

That was my issue during last season. With North especially. This year, however, I have been singing Coach Berube's praises all season. Why? She's smartly and clearly de-emphasized her "seniority rules" approach. Baptista has been a major beneficiary of this. With each game, she's improving further, to cut down on her excessive fouling. By playing. The kid has quick hands, good court vision, and commits to playing good D. That's most of the battle right there. And she's a skilled and confident shooter. Which is much rarer, and arguably a more valuable trait, than defensive stalwarts are in the NESCAC. Simple supply and demand. All credit for Baptista's quick start goes to Carla/Melissa. Giving Dillon early PT before Kelsey's injury, over Wu, paid off big when Morehead went down. The job Dillon's done has been almost superhuman. So much so, no matter who the PG is come the NCAAs, the Jumbos are a legit contender. An incredible feat. All credit for it goes to Carla/Lauren.

You seem to think Roberson is a better defender than Lee is. I don't. At all. I know Emma has a *rep* as a lock-down defender, but I can't share that opinion, much as I truly want to. I give Lee the edge, due to better lateral movement, and better dead-stop to full-speed run transition. Lee runs like a puma. Smooth. Quick. As I detailed earlier this season, Emma has a choppy, head-bobs-up-and-down running style, and is fast but not especially quick. Emma has been vulnerable to the dribble drive. I've seen several clear "blow-by's" by her man this season. But I love Emma, because she's the hardest working, most intense competitor I've ever seen play out there. Still, in total, Lee's better overall athleticism, unusually good passing skills, and better overall shooting % of the two is why I still think it's in Carla's/Tufts best interests to make Josie the late game choice. I'm simply playing the percentages here. Of the two, I feel Lee is much more likely to make a great pass, sink a key hoop, or not make a mistake late, when each possession matters a ton. Any one of the above. Not just offense. We can agree to disagree on this. There are no guarantees. You are a Tufts fan, just like me. So I automatically like and respect you very much!   

Hey, I'm not making any claims of "foul", or trying to take *any* credit away from either Tufts or Bowdoin, for their 14-15 home wins over the LJs. I'm a Jumbos fan - I was absolutely thrilled to beat Amherst again! But I sure did consider getting them at Cousens two straight years, due to the scheduling fluke, to be a bit serendipitous. I just can't help but recall a huge # of comments made two years ago, lamenting the fact that the biggest NESCAC games always seemed to be played at LeFrak. Is it even debatable that, among the top NESCAC teams, the home court advantage is significant to who ends up winning? I mean, the Lord Jeffs have won 109 straight home games. For me to suggest earlier that there was a good chance for different outcomes, had those games been played at Amherst, doesn't exactly make me psychotic, does it? I just think it's only fair that I see/post about things not just from a Tufts point of view. But other teams, as well. amh63 and I manage to get along well, despite different rooting interests. And if what happened to Amherst WBB, schedule-wise, happened to Bowdoin WBB instead, I 100% promise you I would've made the exact same point (along with 10 loyal Polar Bear fans, I suspect!)

nescacbbrules, I can 100% see why you feel I am a "Gromacki apologist." Big picture, I do have a ton of respect what the man has accomplished. How can you not? But it might surprise you to know that, from the bottom of my heart, that I have *far* more issues with how he's "run his ship" this year than I do Carla. I give Carla a 98, and GP an 81. Berube's job has been much easier, though. Her top 7/8 players (counting Morehead) are clear cut. The only reason I bring up Roberson vs Lee is that everything else, rotation-wise, is 100% set for Tufts. All that's left is what happens if/when with Kelsey returns, and any "fine tuning." 

Amherst is a far more complex issue, for a number of reasons. Re-incorporating Megan Robertson into a prominent role since her recent return from a torn ACL has proven to be far from seamless. Why? I don't know. Guesses? When Megan went down last year, the 4 starting FYs (Renner, the two Doswells and Peterson) seemed to develop a comfort zone, with both each other and that weave offense, Giddins, Pritchard, Zwecker and Holness, although all just SOs and a JR, managed to adjust their games around the freshmen. Some said the scheme was too 3-pointer oriented, and they may have had a point. Still, the final W-L result for 13-14 Amherst was an absolute credit to all involved with the LJs.

So it's a new year for Amherst. No one graduated. A bunch more quality FYs are brought in. Robertson is due to return around New Years'. But what was GP gonna do with all of these players? Hackley, Nagle and Schumacher all had plenty of scholarship-level interest. And the girl from Switzerland (Lily Johnson) can also really play. First off, Holness and Virginia Hassell both decide to concentrate on their studies, which at least got the LJ roster down to 15. I made comments in December about the staggering amount of quality depth that Amherst has. I still stand by that characterization today. But some went a step further, and thought I was anointing the LJs as "the 14-15 chosen one". I absolutely was not doing that, at the time. My issue was that I just couldn't figure out how Gromacki was gonna fit 200 minutes of total PT per game into all of this assembled talent. I thought he'd actually over-recruited. But if anybody could somehow make it work, I figured it would be him. Everything about Amherst is class, so there's no back-biting or grumbling. But when a minimum of 12 kids deserve 20mpg each, what can you do? And when does healthy competition turn into "I better produce when I'm in there!" self-pressure?

Then comes at Tufts/at Bowdoin. The Jumbos are clearly quicker and bigger than Amherst. 5'10" Giddins struggled mightily down low. GP obviously wants a different result in March. Does he just write those two losses off to Megan being rusty, and an overall lack of time playing together recently? At least his "toolbox" is full. If he wants to unveil his own "twin towers", he could try matching up Robertson and Nagle with Kanner and North. I don't think Carla's seen a 14-15 opponent match her size. If Nagle's not 100% ready, she can at least give up some fouls, because GP has two other 6'2" girls on the bench. North is only OK at the FT line. If GP wants to go quicker, Renner, Pritchard, Hackley and either Doswell match up better with Foley, et al. Shannon Brady went off against the LJs in Brunswick, while Robertson was a non-factor that day. GP's quandry: was that day a fluke or not?

I just don't think Gromacki's a guy that's gonna unveil something totally unexpected, lineup-wise, in postseason, even if he has the ability/depth to do so. They don't really press. They've stopped running last year's high-post weave in recent games, even though I think he still likes it, deep down. They still shoot tons of 3's, while now incorporating Robertson's classic low post game. My gut is that he's gonna sink or swim with Megan, the 4 SOs, Giddins, Pritchard and Hackley. I do know the players all look up to Robertson - and I don't mean just literally. And they'll do their very best to have her finish up with a bang!

Good luck to all next weekend, my NESCAC buddies!