WBB: NESCAC

[senatorfrost]

 In addition I want a 3 team parlay (All on Sat.) Amherst, Bates and Middlebury for a Dime.
Finally I want a three team parlay of Amherst on Friday with Bates and Middlebury on Sat.
I'm tempted to go for Bowdoin but Coach Pemper seems like a basically gentle sort and she might show some mercy. I was tempted to go for Conn. College on Friday but then I remembered one of their key players transferred to Scranton-
My final Temptation was Williams on Friday but the Ephs might be looking ahead to bates.

[senatorfrost]

Forgot to mention that the last parlay mentioned, is for a Dime. Amherst on Friday and Middlebury and bates on Saturday.

[walzy31]

Feces Monkey,

I think you meant Wes -19 at Trin and Bowdoin -22 at Colby... if they are GETting 19 or 22 then I will bet the house on them (parlay em too why not). I also would not make Bates a 6 pt dog, but rather make that a Pick Em game. Hard to give a team as hot as Bates has been recently points, even if it is at one of the tougher gyms to play in.

Senatorfrost has gotten really into the forum once spreads made an appearence...interesting...

[feces monkey]

Walzy, you are correct. I have the giving (-) and getting (+) tags backwards. This is probably a good indicator as to why I stay away from the book in Vegas and/or why I am so unsuccessful.

And knowing the vernacular as well as he does, I'm guessing Senator has an associate with a name like "Slippery Pete" or "Knuckles" on his speed dial. I had hoped he would use the word "vigorish" in one of his replies.

For simplicity's sake:

Friday:
Trinity, Bates, Williams
Saturday:
Bowdoin, Wesleyan, Amherst, Bates & Middlebury (although I wouldn't be suprised if Tufts won).

[Red1]

Well, anyone who picked Bates to cover the spread (or just to win) you won either way, and so did Bates 73-60 over Middlebury.  I was hoping that it spread would be a little larger, the defense to hold the Panthers to a few less points, and the offense to score a few more.  I'm being picky though.  A 13 point win is a 13 point win.  Learn, improve, and walk away with a smile.

Williams continues to have some form of psychological block preventing them from beating Bates or Bowdoin no matter how well the Ephs play.  Bates already beat Williams at Williams without several of their starters, but they also shot an insane 60% or thereabouts from the field, a stat I doubt they can repeat.  With Kostakis and Powers playing this time, and both at the top of their game I don't think they'll need to repeat that stat.  Prediction:  Bates 74 Williams 65

Cheers,
Red 1 

[walzy31]

Love the Bates Williams prediction. Can't see the Ephs beating Bates unless they shoot 65%+ from deep.

Must win game today for Amherst since they need to win all the games that "they are supposed to win". Got Trin, Conn today and Colby later should put them in postseason play. Once in NESCACs, anything can happen.

[carolina]

Well, so much for the Williams/Bates prediction. Williams dominated. Bates couldn't stop O'malley in the middle and Coffin looked horrible. Yes she had 5 fould but not until the end of the game, so that wasn't a factor. Bottom line Williams played great....Bates played horrible due to the intense defense Williams Dished out!!!!!!!! Go Ephs

[Red1]

I don't know what happened, but those stats are quite poor.  Congratulations to Williams.  Luckily for Bates this game has very little effect on the bobcats ability to win the regular season Nescac Crown.  I still think it's safe to expect Bowdoin to beat Williams, and since Wesleyan already did beat Williams that would be 2 losses.  The hard part for Bates is that they will absolutley need to beat Wesleyan.  That should allow Bates to cost to the end of the season with only 1 conference loss and having won the conference game over Bowdoin that would give the Bobcats the tie breaker anyway.  It's not the way Bates wanted to go through the Nescac schedule, but, luckily, they still have an excellent shot at winning the regular season title.

Cheers,
Red1

[walzy31]

Wes's victory over Williams was the little three game I believe. Williams was 4-0 in conference play last time I checked.

If Wesleyan doesn't beat Bates, Bowdoin or Williams, and Bowdoin beats Williams, then there will be one of those funky three team tie breakers.

Williams holds their destiny, but hopefully they drop something along the way.

[nescac1]

Williams shot very well against Tufts, they clearly won't shoot that well every game but they are capable of doing so, with the shooters they have, every once in awhile.  First half they played poor defense, second half they played very good D, I'd say overall Williams probably played one of their best games, if not their best game, of the season against Tufts, they are capable of playing a little better (particularly on D), but not much. 

Fatigue was definitely a factor against Bates, I would guess.  It sounded like Williams had a lot of trouble on defense and tired legs on their outside shots, not surprising after a very intense, physical, fast game that went to wire against Tufts, followed by a long road trip to Bates.  That combined with Bates' very solid defense made for a long night for the Ephs.  Overall, a split on their toughest road trip of the season is pretty solid for the Ephs.  I think Bates is a little better than Williams right now, but I don't think the differential is as vast as this weekend made it seem.  Hamilton is obviously huge to see if they can have a bounce back game and build off Tufts rather than getting discouraged from easily their worst performance of the season.

I agree that Williams has to go inside much more.  No one in the league can really stop Newton one on one and many of the 3's the Ephs take will usually be there (unless they are really wide open on the break), I think they rush way too many 3's early in the shot clock and they should be more patient, trying to get it to Newton and Kuntz inside more consistently because the outside shots won't always drop and definitely won't get the opposing team in foul trouble, plus an inside game will open up better looks.  Too content just to bomb away at this point. 

At this point, with the rest of New England falling apart, I'd say the top of the region goes like: Amherst, WPI, Bates, Trinity, Williams, Tufts.  The top 4 are all top-30/40 caliber teams for sure.  I expect that Bates won't lose again the way they have been playing until their brutal stretch at the end of the season.  That final Bates/Trinity/Amherst/Tufts week should go a long way towards determining how many teams NESCAC can squeeze into the NCAA tourney.  Ephs still have a shot at getting a 2/3 seed in the NESCAC tourney, but they will have to play with a lot more energy on defense and a lot more patience on offense than they did against Bates, particularly with the Amherst/Trinity home weekend on the horizon.  If the Ephs can beat Midd and get a split that weekend, reasonable goals, they are in pretty solid shape. 

Congrats to the Eph women for stunning Bates -- they definitely deserve to crack the top 25, with one of 3 losses at Southern Maine and the other two against very solid teams as well, and now a few good wins on their resume. 

[yellstoomuch]

Actually the Wesleyan overtime victory over Williams was the NESCAC game. Wes is 4-0 in the conference, and Williams is 3-1 (see the NESCAC website). The little three game is Tuesday.

[nescacfan99]

The likely result of the Williams win over Bates is that Williams will play Bowdoin at Williams in their last regular season game with the NESCAC Championship on the line. 

Wesleyan will likely lose to Bates at home and Bowdoin on the road.  Bates will likely not lose anymore NESCAC games.  Bowdoin will win all of theirs till that last weekend as will Williams.  If the happens then Williams would control their own destiny.  A win over Bowdoin would give Bowdoin two conference losses like Wesleyan and Williams and Bates would each have a loss.

But Williams would be NESCAC champions and have the home court for the Tournament because of their win over Bates as the first tie breaker.

That's a lot of ifs but it is the most likely outcome that Bowdoin and Williams will meet with the championship on the line.  Of course if Bowdoin beats Williams then Bates would host because of their win over Bowdoin.

[feces monkey]

Reading through nescac1's missive I felt like a Southern Maine player filling out a time sheet.

If you're going to cut and paste a 500-word essay, please have more than one graph on the women's team. I understand Williams has admitted goobers with 800 SATs and a good jumpshot for the past ten years, but at least give the illusion of higher education when posting. Thank you. Go straight and take a left and you'll find the men's board.

Also, Carolina, please be a little more careful with your cliches. A "dished out" defense doesn't work. At the current pace, I won't be surprised if Amherst passes Williams in the next year's U.S. News rankings (much to Walzy's pleasure, I'm sure). And yes, I know we'll all be working for you some day...

Anyhoo, it's good for the NESCAC board that the win flushed out the Williams sect (the kings -- and queens -- of all front-runners). Assuming Williams beats Bowdoin in "Billsville" (which they should at this point) and Wesleyan loses along the way (which will likely happen), it should come down to a coin-flip as to where the conference tourney is held. The conference plaque hasn't been anywhere but Brunswick since the conference's inception, I'll still stick with the Polar Bears.

Much like the Bowdoin-Bates non-con game on the horizon, the Will-Wes game on Tuesday will go a long way for at-large purposes. While I have the highest respect for the Cards, they won't win in West Nowhere, considering the latest results. They will get to spend time Pownal, Vt., which is the next best thing to winning.

[nescac1]

My bad, meant to post that in men's section ...

[carolina]

Hey Feces
First of all I am not a Williams fan. I just do not like Bates!!!! I am a basketball fan who likes to see a good game and love when a team can upset someone who everyone thinks should win. As far as my "dished out " quote. Williams did dish it out and bates couldn't take it. By the way I wouldn't want you working for me.

Anyhooo, The Nescac is a tough conference and most of the top teams can get beat any given night. That is why the games are played. Good Luck to all teams, it should be interesting!!!!!