WBB: NESCAC

[feces monkey]

NH,

Interesting. The committee is a funny bird, so I suppose it's possible that Williams wouldn't make it with a 20-6 record (their likely record), but it seems odd for the NESCAC to qualify three Pool C teams for the tourney last year, and then get shutout even with a 20-win squad. And according to Pat Coleman's QoWI rankings on the Pool C board, Williams is 11th in the country in that quotient.

If the Pool A's play out as expected in the region, Williams should get in over Norwich (talk about a team with no quality wins), UMF/MMA and Brandeis. If the Ephs do get in, they would likely clean up again as they would be thrown into the East region, the sorriest of them all, to start.

I'm interested to see how the brackets shake out in the Northeast. Bowdoin and Emmanuel will likely host, and hopefully they won't send all the Maine teams to Brunswick and all the Mass. teams to the Fens. A little variety would be nice.

[Balder Eagle]

monkey,
  How far do you see Bowdoin going in the NCAA Tournament this year?
They will surely miss the presence of Pourevalis.

[feces monkey]

How far do you see Bowdoin going in the NCAA Tournament this year?

Really depends on the bracket. If USM is assigned to Brunswick, Bowdoin could be out in the second round. If the Polar Bears get the kind of bracket USM did last year as the top seed (MMA, UMF, Norwich) with, say, Colby-Sawyer, UMF and the NEWMAC winner, they'll advance. Don't know much about the East, but assumably Rochester and NYU will be the teams to beat.

I'm not sure who is scheduled to host the sectionals, but obviously if Bowdoin gets it everything changes (although Bowdoin actually has a better road record than at home this year). The team that scares me -- and should scare the rest of the region -- the most is Emmanuel. The longer Bowdoin avoids them, the better.

They will surely miss the presence of Pourevalis.

That was the conventional wisdom heading into the season, and I'm sure emotionally they have missed her, but the Bowdoin defense seems stronger this year. Not sure if it's just because the conference is down or if they are playing better. Anelauskas and Cummings have been better defensively than I anticipated. Credit Pemper and her ability to adjust her personnel.

Personally, I'll miss the presence of Mary Washington on Bowdoin's side of the bracket, and the possibility of visiting Fredericksburg in the spring...

[Balder Eagle]

Personally, I'll miss the presence of Mary Washington on Bowdoin's side of the bracket, and the possibility of visiting Fredericksburg in the spring...

I suspect the Eagles would love to have another go with the Polar Bears in Fredericksburg, or a neutral location 

[papabear]

Bowdoin out in the second round is a bit much. I do however agree the success will be determined by the Defense as well as Flaherty. Pourevalis was a great player and I loved watching her play at Bowdoin but she has been replaced nicely by Aneluskus. This senior class is special and I would be suprised if they did not end up in Springfield.

[feces monkey]

I'll throw a question out there to those who have a better grasp on things than I:

Nescac Hoops wrote that the feeling he got while in Williamstown was that the Ephs needed to at least beat Bowdoin to earn an at-large bid. The more and more I looked at things, the more I felt Williams was a lock regardless of a loss to Bowdoin, which would put them at 20-6.

This feeling was hardened when I saw the QoWI rankings that had Williams at No. 12 in the country, and fifth in the region. One poster even highlighted possible pool C candidates that dipped down so low that Tufts (!) and Bates (?) were in the conversation.

Yet, here comes the regional rankings that have Williams 8th in the Northeast behind Brandeis, MMA and UMF (the last two I find laughable).

So if things play out as expected (the favorites for Pool A's win), can Williams breathe easy or are they in trouble? Can someone delineate what is going on? Do the regional rankings rule, or is it the QoWI? A blend?

[tothehole]

Williams is in
Bowdoin will advance no further than the elite 8 but will be ranked in the final poll in the top 4
Tufts should go but.....thats another story.

[atn alum]

To the Hole, I'm not understand your logic, but I'll let that go...

History tells us that Q o WI is a big deal...case in point a couple of years ago when many of us were surprised by Wesleyan's selection (including, as was mentioned on Hoopsville, Wes had basically packed up its stuff for the year).

Poster "DeisCanton" (Allen) was ahead of the curve of all of us basically...he was insistent that Q O WI would be what got Wes in when we all insisted they would be shut out. The numbers proved him right.

[feces monkey]

Poster "DeisCanton" (Allen) was ahead of the curve of all of us basically...he was insistent that Q O WI would be what got Wes in when we all insisted they would be shut out. The numbers proved him right.

Okay, putting aside the past predictions of the New England region's clairvoyant poster, how does one read the regional rankings? It appears that the committee has ignored the QoWI to a degree in formulating their list, leading one to believe there is either a.) another guideline they are incorporating or b.) a human element (read: 'unscientific' method) involved.

Since both A & B are not enunciated (to my knowledge) in any formal way by the NCAA, either DeisCanton made a lucky guess or the regional rankings are a show pony.

Thoughts?

[deiscanton]

Poster "DeisCanton" (Allen) was ahead of the curve of all of us basically...he was insistent that Q O WI would be what got Wes in when we all insisted they would be shut out. The numbers proved him right.

Okay, putting aside the past predictions of the New England region's clairvoyant poster, how does one read the regional rankings? It appears that the committee has ignored the QoWI to a degree in formulating their list, leading one to believe there is either a.) another guideline they are incorporating or b.) a human element (read: 'unscientific' method) involved.

Since both A & B are not enunciated (to my knowledge) in any formal way by the NCAA, either DeisCanton made a lucky guess or the regional rankings are a show pony.

Thoughts?

There are three other primary criteria that one must take into account when doing these regional rankings:

1.)  In region head-to-head competition.
2.)  In region results vs. common regional opponents.
3.)  In region results vs. regionally ranked teams.  (Regionally ranked teams are defined as those teams ranked at the time of the currently published regional ranking or at the time of the secret regional rankings that are used for the selection call.)

Brandeis can be ranked higher than Williams on the basis that both teams played Wheaton (MA) and Tufts this season.

Both Williams and Brandeis defeated Wheaton (MA) this season.  However, Brandeis was the only one of the two teams who was able to defeat Tufts this season.

You can also add in the fact that Brandeis has defeated a regionally ranked opponent this season (Rochester in conference play-- which makes it an in-region result), while Williams has defeated no regionally ranked opponents yet this season.  (Note:  As of this week, the Chicago women are not regionally ranked, so I can no longer use these results to bolster my case.)

Maine Maritime can be ranked higher than Williams on the fact that while both teams played Bowdoin this season, Maine Maritime was the only one of the two teams who was able to defeat Bowdoin.

Norwich can be ranked higher than Williams on the fact that while both teams played Bates twice this season, Norwich was the only one of the two teams to beat Bates twice.  Williams went 1-1 vs. Bates this season.

This, of course, is strictly according to the NCAA's primary criteria, and nothing more than that.

PS-- Last year, all of the women's basketball teams ranked in the final published regional rankings for the Northeast Region got in to the NCAA tournament, and I have no reason to believe that this year will be any different.

[PJ]

Is this the ranking being referred to?
  http://www.ncaasports.com/basketball/womens/polls/rankings/diviii

Also,  Page 12+ has the selection process for NCAA tournament (and criteria used for regional ranking):
  http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/basketball/2007/2007_d3_w_basketball_handbook.pdf

[deiscanton]

Thanks, PJ, for putting up these links.

The Daily Dose on http://www.d3hoops.com also has a copy of this week's regional rankings-- you can comment on these rankings there.

[nescac hoops]

i don't know if the ephs necessarily deserve to get in. they only lost one or two players last year and with what they had returning, they should be in a much better position than they are. that being said, if they were to lose on saturday they will be 20-6. two of their losses would be to bowdoin (both when they were ranked #1) and another to lake forest (ranked 16th) all three of which were on the road and two coming in a brunswick gym where wins for for the guest team are hard to come by. the loss to lake forest was in st. louis. all of the other losses were on the road too (the ephs haven't lost at home). the salem st. loss hurt them but it was the 1st weekend of the year - the ephs had 2 weeks of practice while salem st. had 4 weeks to prepare, which is a big difference at that point in the year. obviously, the tufts-bates weekend absolutely killed them for a number of reasons. the first being that instead of seeing the polar bears in the semifinals they would have seen them in the finals. then there are the
brandeis/norwich debate and those two teams both beat those opponents. i think the tufts loss is legit and one they could have avenged had they beat bates and received the 3rd seed instead of the 4th. if they don't get in, the bates loss would really be the killer. i really still feel that bowdoin and williams will/would do the best in the tourny. norwich hasn't beaten anybody impressive either and brandeis did well this season but in a conference that is VERY talented but has been very up-and-down in terms of team's consistency, especially chicago. i can't really justify my position on this one but i will say that the pretty much same eph team beat the nyu violets (ranked 6th this year) last year in thei 1st round of the tourny and it seems that the ephs can bring their A game in the tourny. they may not be the most deserving in the NE region for a pool C bid but i think they would do a lot better than some of the more deserving teams.

[nescac hoops]

any predictions for the weekend? i think " the more things change, the more they stay the same." i anticipate another bates-bowdoin championship game. murphy is too good of a coach to let the polar bears embarrass his club again so ill take bowdoin by a mere 13 points for the nescac title.

[speedy]

Bowdoin stomps Tufts 64-48 in the NESCAC final. Tufts kept it close well into the second half but was swept away by a classic Bowdoin surge . .