University Athletic Association

[deiscanton]

My thoughts on the weekend:

(1)  Brandeis got severely overrated in the non-conference just based on the fact that the Judges were able to beat up on a relatively down Northeast Region this year.  Tufts and Bowdoin are good, but they are not as good as in previous years.  Amherst is the best of the bunch in the Northeast-- based on statistics, the Jeffs may be worthy of a top 5, but even though Amherst is 18-0 so far, the Jeffs have not been tested by top 25 caliber opposition yet.  As a result, I don't believe that the Amherst Lord Jeffs women's basketball team will go any farther than the Sweet 16 in the NCAA this season.  Amherst is good, but they are also very fortunate to have a soft schedule relative to the UAA in that the Jeffs have not played a ranked team this season, and the Jeffs will play Tufts and Bowdoin at home this season in a single round robin NESCAC schedule.  True, the Jeffs will also have to play the NESCAC tournament-- but Amherst is probably a lock right now for the NCAA field.  (Sorry, but I had to rant about Amherst.)

(1A)  The UAA has exposed Brandeis as not being as good a team in conference play as the Judges were last season.  Brandeis cannot shoot well against tough defenses in league play and the killer is that the Judges cannot get to the free throw line enough times against top UAA opponents to win games.  Brandeis only went 11-14 from the charity stripe today against a very quick Emory team that can run and shoot-- the Judges need to get to the line more than 20 times every UAA game.  Brandeis also needs to run the offense a lot better-- live by the 3, die by the 3., and it is also true that if you live by the layup, you die by the layup too.  Brandeis also has to get emotionally better in these games as well so that they don't get flustered when the opponent plays a tough defense.  As it stands now, Brandeis will only be able to win no more than 6 UAA games at best this season-- The Judges look to be the 5th place team in the UAA out of a very good conference.  Brandeis will probably win the ECAC New England Tournament very easily, but the Brandeis fans will probably be very disappointed in the way the Judges have played so far.

(1B)  Rochester fell flat tonight against Chicago at the Palestra after a tough home win against Wash U.   Well, the Yellowjackets are human-- give credit to Chicago in the fact that the Maroons were able to play the type of game that you need to play to beat Rochester today.  Chicago played at the top of their game tonight and deserved the victory.    Rochester is on the road next weekend against Case and Emory, and I would not be surprised if Rochester splits next weekend-- Emory will be very tough for any UAA opponent to come in and win this season-- NYU did prove that they are capable of winning at Emory, however.  The challenge is for Rochester, Wash U, and Chicago to prove that they can win at Emory this season as well.

(1C)  This weekend marked the first time that all of the UAA conference games were able to be on streaming video.  With Emory now offering free streaming video of all of their home games, this makes 5 UAA schools now offering streaming video of their home UAA games, with Brandeis, NYU, and Chicago not yet offering streaming video, but have a streaming audiocast of their home games.  Speaking as a UAA fan, it was great for me to finally see what the Case and Emory home courts are like during a game on video without having to pay the expensive air fares to travel to Cleveland and Atlanta to watch these games in person.  It was also great to check up on each of these games and watch the live video and call of these games as the games were being played.  It was great not being able to only imagine based on the audio call how the games were being played, but also to actually see the plays on streaming video as they were happening.  To me, this enhanced the flavor of the UAA weekend. 

Well, as for me, Brandeis is at home next week.  Wash U and Chicago come to town, and based on what I have seen so far, it wouldn't surprise me if Brandeis loses 2 more games at home next week.

   

[sumfun]

Just wondering if you've seen Amherst play or know about their coach that was new last year. 

[deiscanton]

I personally saw Amherst play at Tufts last season and saw Amherst win that game.  That game last year was the first and only time so far that I saw GP Gromacki in person.    Last season, Tufts proved by beating Brandeis with defense that the Jumbos were a superior team to Brandeis that year.  Tufts went on to the Elite Eight before falling to Messiah while Amherst lost to DePauw in the Sweet 16.  For Amherst to then come to beat Tufts not just during the regular season in the NESCAC, but also in the NESCAC conference tournament and then appear in the Sweet 16 proves that GP Gromacki is a coach that can assemble a team that can play with the best in Division III. 

(Not only that, but his record at St. Lawrence speaks for itself.  It has been a while, but looking back, I remember that 2001-2002 national championship game between St. Lawrence and UW-Stevens Point.  Gromacki also led another St. Lawrence team to the Elite Eight in the 1999-2000 season, where they fell to Scranton.  (Of course, that was during the period when Wash U ruled Division III women's hoop.)  In Gromacki's first season as a head coach, he led St. Lawrence to the second round of the NCAA tournament, where they fell to NYU.)

Based on Amherst's sweet 16 appearance last season, it is a shame that Brandeis was not able to start a women's rivalry this season with Amherst in the same way that the Brandeis men play Amherst every year, but my guess was that Amherst did not want to play the Brandeis women in the first semester and that Amherst wanted to play the Brandeis women on the same week in January that the Brandeis men were playing Amherst.  Unfortunately, my opinion on that matter is that once the Brandeis women go 3 games into UAA play, then Brandeis should stick with UAA games the rest of the way-- and it looked like Brandeis felt the same way.  It is a shame because it means that the Brandeis women only end up with 9 in-region non-conference games.  (The Widener game is out-of-region and does not count in Brandeis's primary criteria for tournament selection.)

I was also hoping that since Amherst was willing to play Lehman, that Amherst would be willing to play NYU if Amherst was not willing to play Brandeis, but that did not happen either.

Unfortunately, because of the way that the NESCAC conference is scheduled-- single round-robin, the Amherst women do not have to play in the Boston area this season, as Amherst gets their big games against Tufts and Bowdoin this season at LeFrak Gym.

Based on their stats, Amherst should be getting a spot in the top 5 in the D3Hoops.com poll right now, but Amherst has not really been tested yet in my opinion despite their record 18-0 start.  However, there is no disputing that, by default, Amherst is currently the top team in the Northeast Region in DIII Women's Hoop.

Amherst will be streaming their women's home games on their JeffCast video service the rest of the way, so there will be ample opportunities for people to take a look at Amherst.

[deiscanton]

Back to this weekend...

Here are my picks for this weekend's UAA games--

Friday, January 30, 2009

1.)  Wash U at Brandeis-- Wash U  (Based on Brandeis's play the past few games, the Brandeis Jury will be saving their strength for the men's game that follows.  Nancy Fahey takes advantage with a Wash U team that has Jaimie McFarlin back and also has the best two point guards in DIII women's hoop based on A/TO ratio and gets the victory to go 38-3 on the overall Wash U/Brandeis women's series.  No overconfidence or Sunday buzzsaw effect on the Wash U women's team's part this season in this Brandeis game.)

2.)  Chicago at NYU--  NYU-- Give credit to Chicago for winning at the Palestra in Rochester last Sunday, but somehow, I don't see the Maroons following up on that with a victory over a fresh NYU team led by Jessica McEntee that is much better than last year's NYU women's basketball team.  Chicago can play great defense, however, so this game will be close.

3.)  Rochester at Case-- Rochester starts off on a trip that gives the 'Jackets difficulty.  My pick on Friday will have Rochester winning at Case, however.

4.)  Carnegie Mellon at Emory-- Emory

Sunday, February 1, 2009

1.)  Chicago at Brandeis-- I'll give Brandeis the benefit of the doubt and say that the Judges will play inspired ball on Sunday and beat the Maroons, but I would not be surprised to be wrong on this pick.  My pick on Sunday for this game is Brandeis.

2.)  Wash U at NYU-- I'll pick NYU to pull off the upset in this one.

3.)  Rochester at Emory-- Just a hunch, but I'll pick Emory to pull off the upset in this one too.

4.)  Carnegie Mellon at Case-- Case, in a close game. 

[sumfun]

All good points about Amherst and NESCAC.  I was thinking also that if they went to Lehman, once Gromacki gets out from under some two year commitments to some schools that he'll want to play Brandeis, NYU, S. Maine to name a few out of conference teams that will help them prepare for tourney time.

I think/hope Emory pulls off that upset.  Thomaskutty is a very good, dedicated coach who works hard to attract good players to Emory.  Think their time is coming as she builds that program.

[pabegg]

Live from Brandeis.

WashU 61, Brandeis 55.

WashU makes its shots down the stretch, Brandeis doesn't.

Brandeis 1 for 23 from 3 (their last shot with 3 seconds left).

[deiscanton]

Pabegg--

That 3 from Brandeis that fell with 3 seconds left last night was a very lucky 3 point shot that just happened to fall in. 

Brandeis just does not have a type of player like Jaime Capra or Caitlin Malcolm this year that you can always depend on to come through in the clutch in these close games against the very best of Division III women's hoop to get the victory for you.  The Judges needed one of the newcomers on the team this year to put up UAA Rookie of the Year numbers for Brandeis to be able to have success in the UAA this season.

[deiscanton]

My thoughts on Brandeis's play over the weekend:

   When I posted to PaBegg on the Brandeis/Wash U game, I was posting based on the fact that I had just seen Brandeis drop 3 home games in UAA play and had a road loss to Emory.  My reaction to Friday's game was based on this situation.  I now have the benefit of seeing Brandeis play over the entire weekend to base my analysis.

Despite my reaction on Saturday to Friday's Brandeis loss, I will give Brandeis credit-- this was Brandeis's best overall weekend in UAA play so far.  Brandeis had an inspired effort against Rochester on the first weekend, but it got balanced out in that in Carnegie Mellon, Brandeis was playing an opponent that the Judges were expected to beat.  In the Wash U/Chicago pair, Brandeis was playing two opponents that could both beat Brandeis on any given night-- so Brandeis had to play at or near their best effort to win at least one of these games.  A 1-1 split against Wash U and Chicago is a successful weekend in UAA play, no matter where the games are held. 

On Friday's tilt against Wash U-- I give the Bears credit for learning from their mistakes on the Whitworth/Whitman away trip.  Wash U was determined not to let Brandeis's 3 point attack beat them.  I'm sure that the Bears were a little amazed that their 3 point defense worked that well in holding Brandeis to 1 of 23 from 3 pt. range, but when the Wash U team and their fans were as fired up coming into this game and cheering as hard as they could at Auerbach Arena in this match (The Bears fans were treating this game like they were back in Springfield, MA watching their team playing in the national title game against DePauw)-- I had to respond to defend the court to the best of my ability, and the Brandeis team also played as hard as they could to win this game.

Some good moments for Brandeis from the Wash U/Brandeis game--

(1)  Although Brandeis hit 1 of 23 from 3 pt. range, the Judges were 18 of 32 from inside the 3 point arc against the Bears.  Wash U hit 4 of 13 from 3 pt. range, and 17 of 35 from inside the arc.

(2)  Brandeis made it to the free throw line 20 times, hitting 16 of 20.  This is the first loss of the season for Brandeis when the Judges made it to the line at least 20 times.  9 of the attempts from the charity stripe were made by Lauren Orlando, and she made all 9 of her free throw attempts on Friday.

(3)  Jessica Chapin fell 1 rebound short of her second double-double of her career-- she had 18 points and 9 caroms.

(4)  Defensively, Brandeis held Wash U's starting point guard Alex Hoover to 2 assists and 4 turnovers-- probably Alex Hoover's worst game at the point for Wash U this season.   Wash U's Shanna Lei-Dacanay had 4 assists and 2 turnovers at the point guard position when she was playing off the bench.  Wash U had 15 assists overall as a team and turned the ball over 15 times, while Brandeis had 10 assists and 17 turnovers.

(5)  Brandeis outrebounded Wash U, 36-33.

On the Brandeis/Chicago game--

Coming into this game, I felt that Wash U, NYU, Rochester, and Chicago could easily be 4 of the sweet 16 in the NCAA this season.  After seeing Brandeis beat Chicago, I have to conclude that out of the 4 teams in this slate, Chicago could be the team that does not make it to the sweet 16 this season if one of those teams have to lose early.

Brandeis had no trouble matching up with the Maroons this season-- Chicago does not have a speedy track star like Nofi Mojidi to lead them in speed this season, so Brandeis was able to keep with the pace of the game.  However, Bryanne Halfhill is the real deal out of UAA newcomers this season, as she led Chicago in scoring with 17 points and was the only Maroon to hit double figures.  My vote for the UAA Newcomer of the Year in the women's race will be for Bryanne Halfhill of Chicago based on what I saw from her.

Brandeis played a very strong first half-- probably one of the best first halves of the season from the Judges.  Brandeis was up by 17 at the break, but Chicago made their run in the second half to cut the deficit to single digits.  Chicago was able to get back to within 5 or 6 points before Brandeis countered the attack. 

Defensively, both teams were able to play well in that both teams limited the number of shot attempts that the other was able to take.  Brandeis only hit 18 of 42 from the field, of which 5 of 17 was made from 3 pt range, and 13 of 25 was made from inside.  Chicago hit 16 of 50 from the field, of which 8 of 18 was made from 3 pt range, and 8 of 32 was made from inside. 

The key to the game was Brandeis's abilty to get to the charity stripe.  Brandeis made 22 of 26 from the free throw line-- 8 Brandeis players were able to get to the line.

Free throw highlights for Brandeis:  Amanda Wells hit 6 of 6 from the line, Jessica Chapin made 5 of 6 from the stripe, and Lauren Rashford hit 3 of 5 from the line on the way to a career best 18 points for Rashford for the game.

Another key for Brandeis was the rebounding:  Brandeis outrebounded Chicago 38-24 for the game.  It was probably the best rebounding effort for Brandeis in a UAA game so far this season.

Lauren Rashford made the most 3's for Brandeis over the weekend-- she hit 3 of 5 from 3 pt range against Chicago, and she was the only Brandeis player to hit a 3 pt shot against Wash U.

[deiscanton]

Another weekend of UAA play is about to start, and thanks to Brandeis playing in the Central Time Zone this week, I will get to open up by watching some bonus coverage of Emory at Rochester and Case at Carnegie Mellon in the 6 to 7 PM Eastern time hour before I have to go listen to my game.

I am not going to make public any of my picks starting this week-- I want to wish my Judges the best of luck on this road trip and I do not want to do anything that may jinx them.  However, I hear that Chicago is much healthier this week than they were last week, so I expect to be biting my nails tonight while listening to the Brandeis/Chicago game (s).  I will probably be listening in on both the WBRS feed and the Go Maroons! feed, as WBRS is in the midwest doing both games this week.  On Sunday, I will also check both the WBRS feed and the Wash U videocast (I hope that the video stream from Wash U will be working better-- I have problems with my DSL connection watching Wash U's video stream.)

In other news:

Tasha Rodgers of Wash U will be inducted into the Wash U Athletics Hall of Fame tonight at halftime of one of the games of the Wash U/NYU doubleheader.  I am assuming that it will be the women's game.  Wash U won 4 straight national championships and had an 81 game winning streak while Rodgers played for the Bears, and she saved her best game for last-- a 36 point performance in Wash U's victory over Messiah in the 2001 National Championship game in Danbury, CT.  Congratulations to Tasha Rodgers on the honor.

PS-- As most of you may know, the Canton Citizen published a feature article about me yesterday.  Thanks to Brandeis's Jeffrey Pickette for doing the interview. You can read about it on the D3Hoops.com front page.

[deiscanton]

It looks like some bad news just happened for Brandeis.  Going into tonight's game, Lauren Rashford of Brandeis is out for at least this weekend's games against Chicago and Wash U-- Morgan Kendrew is starting at point guard for Brandeis today and she will probably start at point for Sunday's game against Wash U. 

I was hoping that Lauren Rashford was suffering from a flu bug and that she could be back next weekend, but I am hearing unconfirmed speculation that Rashford tore her ACL in practice this week and is done for the season.  If that is the case, Brandeis will be playing out the rest of the 7 games this season and the Judges will not be going to the NCAAs for the first time in a few years. 

As it stands now, without Rashford, Brandeis very likely goes 0-2 on this weekend's road trip.  The Judges are getting crushed by Chicago right now, and I don't think that Sunday's game against Wash U will be anywhere near as competitive as the game last week. 

[deiscanton]

I will still need to have the news confirmed by either Brandeis Sports Information or the Brandeis women's basketball coaching staff, but I am going under the assumption that Lauren Rashford is done for the season unless I hear otherwise.  Lauren Rashford is definitely out for this weekend as she did not make the trip with the team to Chicago and Wash U, and after I made a phone call over one of the halftimes of the games to Jeffrey Pickette, who stayed in Waltham to be at the WBRS studio, I found out the source of the information, who I believe to be reliable.

As for the Brandeis/Chicago game, it was not Morgan Kendrew who caused Brandeis to lose-- far from it.  She made her first game as starting point guard in the place of Lauren Rashford a game in which she exceeded her personal career best in scoring.  Kendrew got a career high 14 points and 6 rebounds-- unfortunately, that was the only bright spot in what was otherwise another loss for the Judges.

Kendrew's line for the game was 14 points on 3-7 shooting from 3 pt. range, and 3-3 from the FT line.  Unfortunately, she made only 1 inside basket to go 4--13 from the field against a very tough Chicago defense, and she only had 1 assist, but she did not turn the ball over.  (Note:  I know that point guards can score as well, but Kendrew needs to make more than just 1 assist a game if she is playing point-- otherwise we just have 3 shooting guards and 2 forwards in the starting lineup with no reliable point or center to lead the Judges.)

The problems plaguing Brandeis are the same problems that Brandeis encountered when playing the home game against NYU and the road game at Emory.  A very tough Chicago defense not only limited Brandeis to under 30% shooting, but Brandeis had to take 28 attempts from 3 pt range just to make 7 3's.  Moreover, Brandeis was held to 9-11 shooting from the FT line last night, while Chicago made 23-39 from the charity stripe.

Chicago played much better last night than the Maroons did last weekend, and is making a case that the UAA can capably send 4 teams not only to the NCAAs, but also to the Sweet 16 if everything plays right.  I wouldn't be surprised if NYU, Rochester, Wash U, and Chicago do make it to the sectional round of the NCAAs-- right now, all 4 teams look like they will be in the NCAA women's basketball field of 63.  With the UAA being ranked as the 2nd toughest conference in D3 Women's Hoop right now according to the Massey ratings, Brandeis looks like they will be playing out the rest of the season.

[deiscanton]

My comments from yesterday's rematch between Brandeis and Wash U:

1.)  Congrats to Amanda Wells on her second double-double of her career.  (11 pts., 10 rebs.  It is always good to get one more highlight near the end of not only the season but also the 4 years for Wells at Brandeis.  I look forward to honoring Wells, Lauren Orlando ("LO"), Cassidy "Cassie" Dadaos, and Lauren Goyette when they come back for their final 2 regularly scheduled home games of their years at Brandeis.)

2.)  Good to see Brandeis improve on the 3 pt. shooting from the last game against Wash U.  Brandeis hit 8 of 22 from 3 pt. range this go-around, with Jessica Chapin hitting 4-4 from 3 pt. range.

3.)  Even though Brandeis did not get that many opportunities to go to the free throw line, Brandeis made the most of them.  Brandeis hit 12 of 13 from the stripe.

4.)  Brandeis allowed too many points off turnovers, and too many offensive boards from Wash U for 2nd chance buckets, but give Wash U credit-- the Wash U point guards had better games today than they did in the first match in Waltham, and Wash U overall played well yesterday.

Best of luck to the Judges against Carnegie Mellon and Rochester next week.

[deiscanton]

The OWP and OOWP numbers for both the men and women have just come out for this week, and they back up the claim (in addition to the fact that the most recent Massey ratings have moved the UAA from #2 to #1 in the ratings) that the UAA is the toughest conference in D3 Women's Hoop.

To summarize:

1.)  The UAA has 5 teams currently in the top 10 in terms of strength of schedule.

2.)  Brandeis has the toughest strength of schedule with a .697 OWP and a .584 OOWP.  What that means is that if Brandeis can run the table and finish with a regional record of 17-6 (.723), the Judges would be a lock for a Pool C bid.  Brandeis has to run the table, however, as 1 more loss would put Brandeis's final regional percentage under .700-- the Judges would finish at 16-7 (.695) if Brandeis only wins 4 out of the 5 UAA games left.

3.)  Wash U is #5 in strength of schedule with a .652 OWP and a .563 OOWP.  Wash U is in the driver's seat for the UAA title, but the Bears need to beat Rochester at the WU Field House in a few weeks to lock the UAA title up, as there is a tie for 1st place in the UAA.

4.)  Rochester is #6 in strength of schedule with a .643 OWP and a .572 OOWP-- Rochester should be #1 in the East when the regional rankings come out on Wednesday.

5.)  NYU is #8 in strength of schedule with a .639 OWP and a .566 OOWP.  NYU should also be high in the East regional rankings on Wednesday.

6.)  Chicago is #10 in strength of schedule with a .628 OWP and a .574 OOWP.  We will see where Chicago ranks in the Central Region, but the Maroons should be on the list.

7.)  As for the rest of the league, Case is #28 in SOS with a .598 OWP and a .559 OOWP, CMU is #40 in SOS with a .583 OWP and a .543 OOWP, and Emory is #41 in SOS.

Whoever survives the UAA and makes it to the NCAA will be battle tested and capable of making deep runs in the NCAA tournament.

[deiscanton]

The first NCAA regional rankings just came out today.

When I read the rankings, I'm feeling like my initial analysis of Brandeis not making the NCAA tourney on the women's side may be wrong for now.  As long as Brandeis remains high in the Northeast rankings, I am forced to withdraw the concession that I made last Friday when I heard that Brandeis's #22 Lauren Rashford is done for the season.

The schedule for the remaining 5 games is still very tough, but where my gut and the mathematical analysis disagrees, I have to go with the numbers right now until the numbers measure up to my gut feeling.  Therefore, where I felt like giving up on the postseason chances last Friday in the interest of playing out the string, the rankings are forcing me back on the bandwagon a little bit.

Brandeis has to win out this weekend, however, to guarantee that the Judges remain high in the Northeast rankings next Wednesday.  Not an easy task when Sunday's game is at the Palestra in Rochester-- where Brandeis has only won once since Jim Scheible became coach.

On the bright side, we have Rochester on Sunday and not on Friday, so I need NYU to really beat up on Rochester and wear them down on Friday to help Brandeis a little bit.  Brandeis should be able to win at Carnegie Mellon-- CMU may pull off some surprises, but I don't think that it's going to be anything that Brandeis cannot handle.  Fridays may draw the crowds, but Sundays are where the rubber meets the road and where your fate is finally determined.

One game at a time, one weekend at a time......

PS-- I know that Brandeis will try their very best this weekend.....

[deiscanton]

Some historical perspective....

Under the old QOWI system used in 2005-2006, NYU finished 4th in the UAA after suffering many losses in February.  The 2005-2006 NYU Violets finished with a regional record of 18-7 (.720), and a 7-7 mark in the UAA, but still got a Pool C bid to the NCAA tournament.  I remember when Brandeis defeated the 2005-2006 NYU Violets at Auerbach Arena on the last day of the season, the NYU fans felt on that day like I was feeling most of this conference season with Brandeis-- that their NYU Violets would be out of the NCAA Tournament. 

Here was the non-conference in-region schedule of the 2005-2006 NYU Violets, with the regional records of their opponents-- NYU went 11-0 on this non-conference schedule:

1.)   SUNY-Brockport (14-11)
2.)   Farmingdale State (15-9)  (NYU played them twice consecutively)
3.)   Alvernia (14-12)
4.)   Manhattanville (7-18)
5.)   Mount St. Mary (23-3)
6.)   St. Joseph's Long Island (9-14)
7.)   Merchant Marine (15-10)  (formerly known as King's Point)
8.)   Montclair State (16-8)
9.)   Mount St. Vincent (6-13)
10.)  Hunter (13-11)

By comparison, here is Brandeis's non-conference schedule this season, with the regional records of their non-conference in-region opponents as of Feb. 8:

1.)  WPI (15-5)
2.)  Bowdoin (17-4)
3.)  Wellesley (8-8)
4.)  Tufts (17-3)
5.)  Emmanuel (13-5)
6.)  Wheaton (MA) (10-8)
7.)  Babson (14-6)
8.)  Regis (MA)  (15-5)
9.)  RI College (9-12)

Clearly, this year's Brandeis team played a tougher non-conference schedule than the 2005-2006 NYU Violets did, and that is helping Brandeis in their chances of getting a Pool C bid to the NCAA tournament.

This year, we are going to find out how many losses a team will be allowed to get while playing the toughest Division 3 schedule in the country and still be eligible for an at-large NCAA Pool C bid under the new OWP/OOWP system.  The Wheaton (IL) men did qualify out of CCIW for a Pool C bid last year with a regional record of 15-7 (.682) for some more historical reference.

Keep in mind that Brandeis's #22 Lauren Rashford has now been confirmed as being out for the season with what is assumed to be a torn ACL, pending the MRI findings.