WBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[HCACBBALL]

The race is heating up and still no one talking on here.  It looks like it will be a interesting race between Manchester, Anderson and Hanover.  I am still picking Anderson to somehow pull this out. 

[Darryl Nester]

Here's an analysis of the possible scenarios for the rest of the season (similar to the one I posted on the HCAC men's discussion page a couple of minutes ago):

First, the disclaimer:  This is based on my interpretation and implementation of the HCAC tie-breakers.  Additionally, two new steps have been added to the tie-breaker process, after the "internal" criteria (performance vs HCAC competition):

• The NCAA Quality-of-win-index
• Win-loss percentage in-region

I made no attempt to incorporate these criteria; my program essentially flips a coin to break ties that cannot be broken by the internal criteria.  I'll have to check how often that happens.  Finally, please remember that the numbers below represent percentages of all possible scenarios; they are NOT probabilities (unless you believe that every remaining game is a 50-50 contest).

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Manchester	9-3	5-1	4-2	@ DC, vs. RHIT, @ AU, vs. HC
Anderson	9-4	6-0	3-4	vs. RHIT, @ FC, vs. MC
Hanover	8-4	6-1	2-3	@ FC, vs. BU, @ TU, @ MC
Transylvania	7-5	6-1	1-4	@ MSJ, @ DC, vs. HC, @ BU
Rose-Hulman	7-6	5-3	2-3	@ AU, @ MC, @ DC
Franklin	6-6	2-3	4-3	vs. HC, vs. AU, @ DC
Mount St. Joseph	5-8	5-2	0-6	vs. TU, @ BU
Defiance	3-9	2-2	1-7	vs. MC, vs. TU, vs. FC, vs. RHIT
Bluffton	2-11	1-5	1-6	@ HC, vs. MSJ, vs. TU

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	In tournament
MC	47.49%	23.58%	18.19%	7.42%	2.99%	0.34%	100.0%
HC	24.66%	28.54%	21.12%	15.79%	7.33%	2.55%	100.0%
AU	24.55%	29.41%	26.98%	11.64%	6.22%	1.21%	100.0%
TU	2.60%	12.10%	18.88%	31.77%	21.61%	10.17%	97.1%
RHIT	0.70%	5.60%	10.11%	19.93%	34.20%	26.03%	96.6%
FC	0.00%	0.77%	4.72%	13.39%	26.28%	50.54%	95.7%
MSJ	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.05%	1.03%	7.18%	8.3%
DC	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.34%	1.99%	2.3%
BU	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.0%

[HCACBBALL]

Thanks for the data.  That is interesting.  From your analysis it looks like the tourney will be at Manchester which is a tough place to play.  I am hoping that this is not the case and the tourney will be held at Anderson.

[Darryl Nester]

A reader of this board emailed to point out that I had missed a game (MSJ/Franklin).  I've re-run the analysis with that game added, and will post the corrected table this afternoon.

[Darryl Nester]

Here are the corrected tables for the end-of-season scenarios.

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Manchester	9-3	5-1	4-2	@ DC, vs. RHIT, @ AU, vs. HC
Anderson	9-4	6-0	3-4	vs. RHIT, @ FC, vs. MC
Hanover	8-4	6-1	2-3	@ FC, vs. BU, @ TU, @ MC
Transylvania	7-5	6-1	1-4	@ MSJ, @ DC, vs. HC, @ BU
Rose-Hulman	7-6	5-3	2-3	@ AU, @ MC, @ DC
Franklin	6-6	2-3	4-3	vs. HC, vs. AU, @ DC, vs. MSJ
Mount St. Joseph	5-8	5-2	0-6	vs. TU, @ BU, @ FC
Defiance	3-9	2-2	1-7	vs. MC, vs. TU, vs. FC, vs. RHIT
Bluffton	2-11	1-5	1-6	@ HC, vs. MSJ, vs. TU

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	In tournament
Manchester	48.47%	22.64%	17.89%	7.56%	3.09%	0.35%	100.0%
Anderson	23.77%	29.25%	27.65%	12.49%	6.06%	0.79%	100.0%
Hanover	24.42%	27.67%	19.59%	14.02%	8.37%	5.58%	99.7%
Transylvania	2.40%	12.41%	20.09%	33.82%	21.04%	8.43%	98.2%
Rose-Hulman	0.69%	5.60%	11.12%	22.10%	36.77%	19.45%	95.7%
Franklin	0.26%	2.43%	3.67%	9.26%	18.43%	47.64%	81.7%
Mount St. Joseph	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.72%	5.73%	16.02%	22.5%
Defiance	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.52%	1.73%	2.3%
Bluffton	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.0%

[Darryl Nester]

I cannot find the Manchester-Defiance score, but with the other three scores entered, Hanover and Transy have clinched spots in the tournament:

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Manchester	9-3	5-1	4-2	@ DC, vs. RHIT, @ AU, vs. HC
Anderson	10-4	7-0	3-4	@ FC, vs. MC
Hanover	8-5	6-1	2-4	vs. BU, @ TU, @ MC
Transylvania	8-5	6-1	2-4	@ DC, vs. HC, @ BU
Franklin	7-6	3-3	4-3	vs. AU, @ DC, vs. MSJ
Rose-Hulman	7-7	5-3	2-4	@ MC, @ DC
Mount St. Joseph	5-9	5-3	0-6	@ BU, @ FC
Defiance	3-9	2-2	1-7	vs. MC, vs. TU, vs. FC, vs. RHIT
Bluffton	2-11	1-5	1-6	@ HC, vs. MSJ, vs. TU

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	In tournament
Manchester	47.89%	26.73%	17.03%	6.86%	1.45%	0.04%	100.0%
Anderson	43.59%	33.04%	19.07%	4.20%	0.10%	0.00%	100.0%
Hanover	4.88%	15.60%	23.95%	24.68%	21.66%	9.23%	100.0%
Transylvania	3.30%	20.42%	27.93%	30.75%	14.60%	3.00%	100.0%
Franklin	0.34%	4.20%	11.72%	25.63%	28.27%	26.32%	96.5%
Rose-Hulman	0.00%	0.00%	0.31%	7.87%	33.04%	52.40%	93.6%
Mount St. Joseph	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.68%	6.52%	7.2%
Defiance	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.20%	2.48%	2.7%
Bluffton	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.0%

[HCACBBALL]

Good stuff

[Darryl Nester]

With Defiance's loss to Manchester, their slim chances of making the tournament disappeared.  Additionally, the Spartan's extra win means they take the #1 spot in over half of the possible scenarios ... but obviously the MC/AU game will have an impact on that: If the Raven's win that game, they would have a substantial edge over MC, but if AU loses, they are out of the running. Here is the updated table of scenarios:

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	In tournament
MC	53.08%	28.96%	13.38%	4.20%	0.39%	0.00%	100.0%
AU	39.01%	32.57%	24.32%	3.71%	0.39%	0.00%	100.0%
HC	5.96%	18.26%	29.30%	19.97%	18.38%	8.13%	100.0%
TU	1.95%	17.29%	27.73%	39.67%	11.28%	2.08%	100.0%
FC	0.00%	2.93%	4.98%	20.41%	30.18%	37.89%	96.4%
RHIT	0.00%	0.00%	0.29%	12.04%	37.92%	46.14%	96.4%
MSJ	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.46%	5.76%	7.2%
DC	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.0%
BU	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.0%

[Darryl Nester]

The top 4 teams all won, although the Beavers took Hanover to OT before falling.  The regular season championship is now a race between AU and MC;

With the losses by Franklin and RHIT, MSJ's position improved slightly, while Rose is no longer in the running for a top-4 seed:

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Manchester	11-3	6-1	5-2	@ AU, vs. HC
Anderson	11-4	7-0	4-4	vs. MC
Hanover	9-5	7-1	2-4	@ TU, @ MC
Transylvania	9-5	6-1	3-4	vs. HC, @ BU
Franklin	7-7	3-4	4-3	@ DC, vs. MSJ
Rose-Hulman	7-8	5-3	2-5	@ DC
Mount St. Joseph	5-9	5-3	0-6	@ BU, @ FC
Defiance	3-11	2-4	1-7	vs. FC, vs. RHIT
Bluffton	2-12	1-5	1-7	vs. MSJ, vs. TU

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	In tournament
MC	51.56%	29.69%	18.75%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
AU	48.44%	26.56%	25.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
HC	0.00%	25.00%	37.50%	31.25%	6.25%	0.00%	100.0%
TU	0.00%	18.75%	18.75%	62.50%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
FC	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	6.25%	43.75%	42.19%	92.2%
RHIT	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	44.53%	50.00%	94.5%
MSJ	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	5.47%	7.81%	13.3%
DC	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.0%
BU	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.0%

[HCACBBALL]

What happens if AU wins?  Will they host for sure or what does the tie breakers say? 

[Darryl Nester]

HCACBBALL-
My program tells me that if AU wins, they take the #1 seed in 96.88% of the remaining scenarios.

Briefly, if AU wins, and then MC beats HC, so they both end at 12-4, and the tie-breaker situation looks like this:

AU and MC will both have split the series with each other, and with HC and TU.  Against the next three teams:

• AU swept Franklin, RHIT, and split with MSJ
• MC split with FC, and swept RHIT and MSJ

So, AU takes the tie-breaker if Franklin ends up higher than MSJ.   I don't have the time to sort through how that could happen, but it is very likely.

[Darryl Nester]

AU won big over Manchester, 71-44.  That, combined with Bluffton beating MSJ 56-48, means that Anderson locks in the #1 seed:  Even if MC finishes 12-4, the tie-breaker goes to AU by virtue of their sweep of Franklin.  The six teams in the tournament are now set, with the #2-#6 seeds to be decided by Saturday's games.

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Anderson	12-4	8-0	4-4
Manchester	11-4	6-1	5-3	vs. HC
Transylvania	10-5	7-1	3-4	@ BU
Hanover	9-6	7-1	2-5	@ MC
Franklin	7-8	3-4	4-4	vs. MSJ
Rose-Hulman	7-8	5-3	2-5	@ DC
Mount St. Joseph	5-10	5-3	0-7	@ FC
Defiance	4-11	3-4	1-7	vs. RHIT
Bluffton	3-12	2-5	1-7	vs. TU

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	In tournament
AU	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
MC	0.00%	75.00%	25.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
TU	0.00%	25.00%	50.00%	25.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
HC	0.00%	0.00%	25.00%	75.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
FC	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	25.00%	75.00%	100.0%
RHIT	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	75.00%	25.00%	100.0%

[[/table]

[HCACBBALL]

Congrats to AU on a Championship Season. As a Freshman Lauren Vail was on a team that won 5 games and she is now on a Conference Championship Team as a Senior!!!  Job Well Done Ravens!!!!!

[HCACBBALL]

Anderson/Transy Final today.  Anderson is going to be tough to be to beat.  They are playing well right now.

[brutus]

Can anyone explain how Lacey Hornaday, a freshman, made the All-Conference team, but not the All-Freshman team?

And, how did Defiance get 2 players on the team after finishing 8th in the league?