WBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

b. When ties in the final regular season standings occur the following steps will be used to break these ties.  These tiebreakers are only for seeding purposes and will not affect the standings or the awarding of all-sports points.
i. Head to head competition.   
ii. Competition against rank/order of regular season standings
iii. In-league road record
iv. Win-loss record versus common Division III opponents
v. If these four steps do not break the tie then a coin toss             
Tie Breaker Notes:   1) If the final standings have more than one tie then lower ties are resolved first. 2) If there are multiple ties for a position the conference tie breaker process will be used stated below:

"When there are a cluster of teams tied (3 or more), the selection/seeding process will first attempt to separate the tie by using head to head comparisons of the total number of wins and loses among those teams in the tie to emerge (produce a top team) from that cluster of teams.  Once a team emerges from the initial tie the process will be repeated starting with head to head comparisons in order to resolve all remaining seeds.  (Example:  Three teams tied.  Within the cluster the records reflect head to head results as follows:  Team A 3-1; Team B 2-2; Team C 1-3.  Team A would emerge and receive the top seed and the process of comparing head to head records would begin with the remaining ties.  When two teams are tied or multiple ties cannot be broken using the aforementioned process the criteria from the specific sports guidelines would be applied and followed to emerge a team.  Again, once a team emerges the process would be repeated from the start each time a team emerges until all seeds are resolved."

Transylvania  16-0  (@Hanover, Bluffton)
Hanover  15-1  (Transylvania, Rose-Hulman)

Franklin  10-6   (@Mount St. Joseph (L6), Defiance (W13))

Bluffton  6-10   (Defiance (L5), @Transylvania (L20))
Defiance  6-10   (@Bluffton (W5), @Franklin (L13))
Earlham  6-10   (@Rose-Hulman (W15), @Manchester (W27))
Mount St. Joseph 6-10  (Franklin (W6), @Anderson (W4))
Anderson  5-11  (@Manchester (L7), Mount St. Joseph (L4))
Manchester  5-11   (Anderson (W7), Earlham (L27))
Rose-Hulman  5-11  (Earlham (L15), @Hanover (L19))

Bolded games are between the bottom 7.

Just looking ahead to possibilities...
Rose still has to win out to have any shot and winning at Hanover to end the season is not going to be easy.
I believe a minimum of 2 teams will get to 7 wins regardless of outcomes (Bluffton/Defiance winner plus Anderson/Manchester winner vs their final opponent) so the 6th seed will either be a very lucky 6-12 team or be at least 7-11.

[Baldini]

Great job FCGG. I think that you nailed it with what it takes to make the playoffs, spots 4,5 and 6 probably will all be 7-11. If someone gets in at 6-12, I will be very surprised and they will be 'very lucky' as you had stated. 

Rose-Hulman should probably be a Transylvania fan when they travel to Hanover. If Hanover loses that game, the RHIT game becomes fairly meaningless for Hanover.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

They need Franklin to keep playing too as they're locked into the 3 seed and so have two meaningless games against teams fighting for playoff spots.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Here's the scenario I'm rooting for...
Rose beats Earlham and Hanover
Earlham beats Manchester
Anderson beats Manchester and MSJ
MSJ beats Franklin
Loser of Bluffton/Defiance wins last game, winner loses last game

That would create a 6 way tie for 4th at 7-11. Let the chaos begin

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

https://i.imgur.com/25pxBL2.png

This is the win totals for the bottom 7 depending on how the remaining games go. Transy-Hanover doesn't matter, assuming Rose beats Earlham (to keep RHIT with a chance), Transy beats Bluffton and Hanover beats Rose. I had to make a few assumptions or there's be hundreds of possibilities to go through.
The top half of the picture gives the different scenarios, the bottom gives the win totals based on that scenario. If the win total is black the team would be in, red and they're eliminated, grey means they could be in or out based on tiebreakers.

Based on that, 16 of 64 scenarios would have RHIT in a tiebreaker at 6-12. Here's how many of those 16 are available depending on each game.
Defiance 10 vs Bluffton 6
Franklin 12 vs MSJ 4
Anderson 9 vs Manchester 7
MSJ 7 vs Anderson 9
Defiance 5 vs Franklin 11
Earlham 3 vs Manchester 13

And because I know you'll want to know, here's the same except Rose upsets Hanover

https://i.imgur.com/3g5hAdS.png

[Jester1390]

All i can say is wow . i just became a closet Franklin fan

[Baldini]

Great work FCGG. It looks like the Bluffton-Defiance winner will have a inside track to a playoff spot.

[Jester1390]

Bluffton will win   definace has gotten worse as the season has gone on they didnt show much at home against rose saturday and our offense was not very good

[Baldini]

Bluffton seems to play much better at home this season verses on the road, 9-3 at home overall and 5-2 in conference play.

[Enginerd]

Bluffton will win   definace has gotten worse as the season has gone on they didnt show much at home against rose saturday and our offense was not very good

Defiance is always tough at home and well-coached. RHIT struggled at Defiance last year as well. Defiance is also missing #24 Lake (their best player) and Carruthers (an on-and-off starter over her four years but a big contributor), so picking Bluffton at home isn't a tough call. Neither played against RHIT.

Frustrating couple of years for an Engineer fan. They should have been better last season but lost the PG Brooks (which IMHO was the nail in the coffin this season as well), and a great post player and even better wing before practice started in October - then they lose the wing from Chicago before October THIS season...

They've had have some enormous bad luck down there and I know they always recruit well - hope they can keep this group together and add some good depth on the perimeter and a true PG - if they do, this season should be a one-off.

[Jester1390]

Eng  your absolutely correct they need a point guard. This is me talking not my kid.   I expected for the time in her playing she would just be able to guard one of the top plavers but finally could just concentrate on scoring and not bring the ball up. That hasnt been the case,  In the first few games she was not involved with the press break and it was a disaster.  To her credit and to her teammates they have greatly improved against the press even though they still dont attack a press to make them pay they are just happy to beat it.

I know they have asked all the girls if they are coming back.  I dont think all of them are. Mostly due to the academics.  I know my kid is happy with the school but she has doubts if being an engineer is what she wants to do for a living . This next quarter will be huge in figuring it out.  I do know she is a broken down young lady who has been playing on one hip for over  the last month.

I wasn't sure if she wanted to continue playing. She has always loved basketball but she told me along time ago. Daddy I love basketball but its not who I am it just part of me.  With that said she has decided to keep playing either at Rose which I think she will end up staying at or if she comes home to become a pre natal nurse she will play at Gustavus.  She was honest with her coaches and they were great to her. They let her know how important she is and  with her being health and with experience they see her scoring 14pts or more a game.  They know there are things she cant do physically right now with her hip.

i hope they all decide to come back. I have heard they have 4 recruits for sure and maybe 2 to 4 more.  They need a ball handler that sees the floor and gets the ball out of their hands.  In the games agianst Transy you see them play and you wonder how the hell did you lose some of the games you played.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Baldini 4-1     58-19
FCGG 4-1       53-24
Jester 4-1      52-25
Enginerd 0-0   8-7

Wednesday
Defiance (6-10) @ Bluffton (6-10) 6:00 PM
Transylvania (16-0) @ Hanover (15-1) 7:00 PM
Earlham (6-10) @ Rose-Hulman (5-11) 7:30 PM
Franklin (10-6) @ Mount St. Joseph (6-10) 7:30 PM
Anderson (5-11) @ Manchester (5-11) 7:30 PM

[Jester1390]

bluffton
transy
rose
franklin
anderson

[Baldini]

Defiance (6-10) @ Bluffton (6-10) 6:00 PM
Transylvania (16-0) @ Hanover (15-1) 7:00 PM
Earlham (6-10) @ Rose-Hulman (5-11) 7:30 PM
Franklin (10-6) @ Mount St. Joseph (6-10) 7:30 PM
Anderson (5-11) @ Manchester (5-11) 7:30 PM

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Bluffton
Transy
Earlham
Franklin
Anderson

After tonight's games I'll work on figuring out the tiebreaker scenarios for Saturday.