WBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The second week Regional Rankings are out: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2020/02/women-regional-rankings-second

[Jester1390]

Great win by the girls.   If anyone ever doubted the toughness of the kid. Watch the blow to her head she takes and to come out in second half to clam ting a down and get the defense back on track I'm beyond proud.  My best to the other player she looked like a tko fighter in the cage I hope she will be alright.  The kid said she has never been hit like that

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

5 teams sit at 6-11 and tied for 5th place... working on figuring out all the tiebreakers right now. For Rose I can tell you it's pretty much have to beat Hanover to have a chance though.

Boy this is complicated. Who gets in can be determined by a game not involving the teams... If MSJ beats Anderson, Transy over Bluffton, Defiance over Franklin, Earlham over Manchester... then either MSJ or Defiance gets in based on whether Rose beats Hanover or not.
The one thing I know for certain... Manchester has been eliminated. Only 4 of 32 scenarios they get in a tiebreaker and they don't make it in any.

[gordonmann]

What's the tiebreaker for Transy and Hanover if both win?

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

What's the tiebreaker for Transy and Hanover if both win?

b. When ties in the final regular season standings occur the following steps will be used to break these ties.  These tiebreakers are only for seeding purposes and will not affect the standings or the awarding of all-sports points.
i. Head to head competition.   
ii. Competition against rank/order of regular season standings
iii. In-league road record
iv. Win-loss record versus common Division III opponents
v. If these four steps do not break the tie then a coin toss             
Tie Breaker Notes:   1) If the final standings have more than one tie then lower ties are resolved first. 2) If there are multiple ties for a position the conference tie breaker process will be used stated below:

"When there are a cluster of teams tied (3 or more), the selection/seeding process will first attempt to separate the tie by using head to head comparisons of the total number of wins and loses among those teams in the tie to emerge (produce a top team) from that cluster of teams.  Once a team emerges from the initial tie the process will be repeated starting with head to head comparisons in order to resolve all remaining seeds.  (Example:  Three teams tied.  Within the cluster the records reflect head to head results as follows:  Team A 3-1; Team B 2-2; Team C 1-3.  Team A would emerge and receive the top seed and the process of comparing head to head records would begin with the remaining ties.  When two teams are tied or multiple ties cannot be broken using the aforementioned process the criteria from the specific sports guidelines would be applied and followed to emerge a team.  Again, once a team emerges the process would be repeated from the start each time a team emerges until all seeds are resolved."

Looks to me like Transy still has it. 1-1 H2H, 2-0 against everyone else in conference, 8-1 road record in conference, Common opponent of Spalding which Transy beat and Hanover lost.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

https://i.imgur.com/Uj4o4g3.png

Consider this as an unofficial guide. I think I did all the tiebreakers right but it's possible I messed up somewhere.

Here's a synopsis for each team and how many of the 32 possible combinations get them in. Anderson-MSJ winner likely in and Bluffton likely in

Bluffton (30): win OR a win by either Franklin, Hanover, or MSJ
Anderson (15): win AND a win by either Earlham, Franklin, Hanover, or Transy
MSJ (14): win AND win by either Franklin, Manchester, or Rose
RHIT (14): win AND Anderson win; OR win AND Defiance, Manchester, MSJ all win; OR MSJ, Franklin, Manchester all win
Earlham (12): win AND MSJ win; OR Anderson, Franklin, Hanover all win
Defiance (11): win AND Hanover, MSJ win; OR win AND Anderson win AND either Hanover, Manchester or Transy win

[gordonmann]

Excellent. Thanks

[Baldini]

Does Transylvania's lose to Hanover put in doubt their chances of hosting the first weekend on the NCAA tournament?

[Enginerd]

Does Transylvania's lose to Hanover put in doubt their chances of hosting the first weekend on the NCAA tournament?

As long as DePauw and Hope make it to the conference championship games, or in Hope's case its conference semi's, it's unlikely Transy will host. Their .505 SOS is virtually unheard-of for a 3rd-ranked team in the Great Lakes region (and they'll only be ranked third until next week's new regional rankings - they could realistically fall to 5th) - although that number SHOULD come up a bit after playing Hanover. The ONLY thing Transy has going for it at this point is geography. The NCAA probably loves their location being able to send teams from as far south as Atlanta and as far north as PA.  After being the last team in several years ago you'd think Transy would have taken steps to enhance their SOS through a strenuous non-conference slate, but they have virtually the same kind of schedule they had five years ago. RHIT got absolutely robbed in 2016 and again last year with higher SOS, and in the case of 2016, with only one more regular season loss. Hard to compare the different seasons, though.
Transy deserved to host last year, after defeating Emory and a very good Trine team in Lexington - but their non-conference slate is pretty mediocre this year, to be frank.  In fact, RHIT finished 23-4 in 2015-15 with an SOS around .515 and a record vs. RRO's of 1-1 (split with Bluffton), and only got laughed at. I personally think Transy will destroy Hanover in the HCAC tournament, especially in Lexington, and if they do could expect to get a winnable #2 vs. #3 game at someplace like Hope or Oglethorpe. If they were to lose again, with that low SOS, it could get dicey depending on the AQ's in other conferences, seriously. I have not looked at their schedule at all, have they EVEN PLAYED a regionally-ranked opponent this season? If not, that could be a serious problem for them when the committee meets. Anyone know who the HCAC's rep is on the Great Lakes Committee for the NCAA Tournament?

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Baldini 3-2     61-21
FCGG 3-2       56-26
Jester 4-1      56-26
Enginerd 0-0   8-7

Saturday
Mount St. Joseph (6-11) @ Anderson (6-11) 1:00 PM
Bluffton (7-10) @ Transylvania (16-1) 2:00 PM
Defiance (6-11) @ Franklin (11-6) 2:00 PM
Earlham (6-11) @ Manchester (5-12) 2:00 PM
Rose-Hulman (6-11) @ Hanover (16-1) 3:00PM

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Anyone know who the HCAC's rep is on the Great Lakes Committee for the NCAA Tournament?

HCAC rep on the Regional Advisory Committee (RAC) is Transy's coach which means she must recuse herself when the Pioneers are being discussed. Great Lakes rep on the national committee is DePauw's coach.

GREAT LAKES REGION
Kristin Huffman, chair DePauw North Coast
Amy Senefelder Hilbert Allegheny Mountain CC
Melissa Makielski St. Mary's (Indiana) Michigan Intercol.
Juli Fulks Transylvania Heartland Collegiate
Sara Lee Denison North Coast
Michelle Durand Ohio Northern OAC
Sam Jones Waynesburg Presidents' AC
Jennifer Reimer Case Western UAA

[Baldini]

Does Transylvania's lose to Hanover put in doubt their chances of hosting the first weekend on the NCAA tournament?

As long as DePauw and Hope make it to the conference championship games, or in Hope's case its conference semi's, it's unlikely Transy will host. Their .505 SOS is virtually unheard-of for a 3rd-ranked team in the Great Lakes region (and they'll only be ranked third until next week's new regional rankings - they could realistically fall to 5th) - although that number SHOULD come up a bit after playing Hanover. The ONLY thing Transy has going for it at this point is geography. The NCAA probably loves their location being able to send teams from as far south as Atlanta and as far north as PA.  After being the last team in several years ago you'd think Transy would have taken steps to enhance their SOS through a strenuous non-conference slate, but they have virtually the same kind of schedule they had five years ago. RHIT got absolutely robbed in 2016 and again last year with higher SOS, and in the case of 2016, with only one more regular season loss. Hard to compare the different seasons, though.
Transy deserved to host last year, after defeating Emory and a very good Trine team in Lexington - but their non-conference slate is pretty mediocre this year, to be frank.  In fact, RHIT finished 23-4 in 2015-15 with an SOS around .515 and a record vs. RRO's of 1-1 (split with Bluffton), and only got laughed at. I personally think Transy will destroy Hanover in the HCAC tournament, especially in Lexington, and if they do could expect to get a winnable #2 vs. #3 game at someplace like Hope or Oglethorpe. If they were to lose again, with that low SOS, it could get dicey depending on the AQ's in other conferences, seriously. I have not looked at their schedule at all, have they EVEN PLAYED a regionally-ranked opponent this season? If not, that could be a serious problem for them when the committee meets. Anyone know who the HCAC's rep is on the Great Lakes Committee for the NCAA Tournament?

Transylvania is 4th in the last regional rankings.

I don't agree with the general view that is bouncing around these boards about Transylvania and their non-conference schedule. It was not a who's who of D3 women's top 25, but there were no cupcakes either. Yes their SOS comes in low, but the non-conference schedule was a good test game after game.

Spalding 14-10, tied for 3rd in the SLIAC
@ Berea 22-3, 1st in the USAC
@ Wittenberg 18-6, 2nd in the NCAC
Maryville (Tenn.) 19-7, 3rd in the USAC
Redlands 18-6, 1st in the SCIAC
Monmouth 18-6, 2nd in the MWC (@ Santa-Cruz)
@ UC-Santa Cruz 12-11, 2nd in the ACAA

[Baldini]

Mount St. Joseph (6-11) @ Anderson (6-11) 1:00 PM
Bluffton (7-10) @ Transylvania (16-1) 2:00 PM
Defiance (6-11) @ Franklin (11-6) 2:00 PM
Earlham (6-11) @ Manchester (5-12) 2:00 PM
Rose-Hulman (6-11) @ Hanover (16-1) 3:00PM

[Enginerd]

Does Transylvania's lose to Hanover put in doubt their chances of hosting the first weekend on the NCAA tournament?

As long as DePauw and Hope make it to the conference championship games, or in Hope's case its conference semi's, it's unlikely Transy will host. Their .500 SOS is virtually unheard-of for a 3rd-ranked team in the Great Lakes region (and they'll only be ranked third until next week's new regional rankings - they could realistically fall to 5th) - although that number SHOULD come up a bit after playing Hanover. The ONLY thing Transy has going for it at this point is geography. The NCAA probably loves their location being able to send teams from as far south as Atlanta and as far north as PA.  After being the last team in several years ago you'd think Transy would have taken steps to enhance their SOS through a strenuous non-conference slate, but they have virtually the same kind of schedule they had five years ago. RHIT got absolutely robbed in 2016 and again last year with higher SOS, and in the case of 2016, with only one more regular season loss. Hard to compare the different seasons, though.
Transy deserved to host last year, after defeating Emory and a very good Trine team in Lexington - but their non-conference slate is pretty mediocre this year, to be frank.  In fact, RHIT finished 23-4 in 2015-15 with an SOS around .515 and a record vs. RRO's of 1-1 (split with Bluffton), and only got laughed at. I personally think Transy will destroy Hanover in the HCAC tournament, especially in Lexington, and if they do could expect to get a winnable #2 vs. #3 game at someplace like Hope or Oglethorpe. If they were to lose again, with that low SOS, it could get dicey depending on the AQ's in other conferences, seriously. I have not looked at their schedule at all, have they EVEN PLAYED a regionally-ranked opponent this season? If not, that could be a serious problem for them when the committee meets. Anyone know who the HCAC's rep is on the Great Lakes Committee for the NCAA Tournament?

Transylvania is 4th in the last regional rankings.

I don't agree with the general view that is bouncing around these boards about Transylvania and their non-conference schedule. It was not a who's who of D3 women's top 25, but there were no cupcakes either. Yes their SOS comes in low, but the non-conference schedule was a good test game after game.

Spalding 14-10, tied for 3rd in the SLIAC
@ Berea 22-3, 1st in the USAC
@ Wittenberg 18-6, 2nd in the NCAC
Maryville (Tenn.) 19-7, 3rd in the USAC
Redlands 18-6, 1st in the SCIAC
Monmouth 18-6, 2nd in the MWC (@ Santa-Cruz)
@ UC-Santa Cruz 12-11, 2nd in the ACAA

The problem isn't what is being bandied about on the forums. I don't necessarily think Transy played a cupcake schedule but have learned over the years that the regional and national committees value three things above all else - and these have been discussed in great detail across these boards - those being, in no particular order:
- Won-loss % / record vs. D-III opponents
- Strength of schedule (some formula that includes opponents win % and opponents-opponents win %) ie the NCAA #
- Record vs. regionally-ranked opponents
The excuses that were tossed around in 2016 for a 23-4 RHIT team being left out of the NCAA tournament was their .515 NCAA number and the fact that their only win vs. a RRO was Bluffton (1-1).
...and still not sure why RHIT was left out last season after wins over DePauw and Transylvania, and their murderer's row of a schedule that included WashU, Ogelthorpe, Rhodes, Chicago, and the aforementioned Transy and DePauw - not to mention their high NCAA number that placed them right at #100 at the end of the HCAC tournament - Transy sits at #217 with a .507 NCAA # - with one game remaining vs. 13-12 Bluffton - and ZERO games vs. RRO's, to say nothing of wins. In fact, Transy is one of ONLY SIX teams in the entire Great Lakes Region, and one of only 50 teams out of the 443 women's basketball programs that comprise Division III, without so much as a single game vs. a RRO. The three OAC schools that are RR'd will only see their NCAA # go up and Transy's will likely go down after the Bluffton game and the HCAC semi's.

I'll always pull for any HCAC team in the NCAA Tournament, as I'm sure anyone else here would, but based on recent history of HCAC Champions at the NCAA tournament "table", Transy could ill-afford another loss. If they make it to the conference title game and win, they are probably going to get a winnable #2 vs. #3 game somewhere relatively nearby travel-wise. If they get upset in the semi's, they are out without a prayer of an at-large bid. If they make it to the title game and lose, it will be an uncomfortable wait "at the table", depending upon what happens elsewhere in other regions and who's at the table.

I hope Transy gets in the NCAA Tournament, I really do, and I was a huge fan of theirs in March last year - but If Transy loses in the HCAC title game, and then gets an at-large without any games (to say nothing of wins) vs. RRO's, combined with their their really low NCAA #, there will be squawking like no one has ever heard, from teams with comparable records that DO have games against RRO's, teams with more losses but multiple games vs. RRO's AND higher NCAA #'s - and virtually every team over the last decade that had games, and wins, vs. RRO's and higher NCAA #'s, but didn't get in. A lot of people are going to want to know what's so special about this particular Transy team (looking at ALL the data), and why the committee defied precedence to give them a spot in the tournament.

Based on what has transpired in previous years, and if the committees remain consistent, there is now no chance Transy will host a first-weekend NCAA pod - and probably would be the very last team in the field if they don't win the AQ.

The mid-to-bottom teams in the HCAC really drag the top teams down, from an NCAA # perspective. Look at what happened to RHIT the past four years - playing in the Midwest Classic, Chicago, UT-Dallas, Hope, WashU, DePauw, IL. Wesleyan, Oglethorpe, Rhodes...etc. I mean, they played SIX NCAA Tournament teams last year and finished 20-7, and didn't even come close - while a WIAC, MIAC, OAC, or CCIW squad with the same resume would have been a mortal lock. RHIT could easily put their non-conference opponents each year up against ANYONE in the country, yet by mid-Feb their NCAA # is always back down under .525.

Any HCAC team that wants to be prominent nationally year-in-and-out, needs their conference-mates to start scheduling better opponents, or step outside the cozy confines of their home arenas and start taking on all comers, and probably both.

[Jester1390]

Well not very good news.  Kahlan is out for the rest of the season with a concussion so will not be at Hanover tomorrow.  Rose will  be going into the game with 7 players.  Really tough on her to have played through the hip issue all year.  She was playing terrific against earlham. Making passes that made the crowd go oooh.  Just bad luck with the 2 players hitting heads.  Somehow she willed herself through the 2nd half to help the team but she started feeling worse so it's time to worry about her and pull the plug for now.  If the girls can get the huge upset she can be re-evaluated