WBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[Roundball999]

I just hope we get to watch some more Division III basketball. Surely they wouldn't shut things down again like they did in 2020 but you never know. Division I will keep on trucking - too much money at stake.

Most reports have Omicron no worse than flu, isolation and shutdowns ineffective anyway, and case rates expected to plummet by end of January.  Would sure be a shame if they shut it down in that context. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I just hope we get to watch some more Division III basketball. Surely they wouldn't shut things down again like they did in 2020 but you never know. Division I will keep on trucking - too much money at stake.

Most reports have Omicron no worse than flu, isolation and shutdowns ineffective anyway, and case rates expected to plummet by end of January.  Would sure be a shame if they shut it down in that context.

Important to add "if vaccinated;" illness and hospitalization rates aren't that different for the unvaccinated..

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

January 5th
Bluffton @ Defiance 6:00 PM
Earlham @ Transylvania 7:00 PM
Anderson @ Manchester 7:30 PM
Franklin @ Rose-Hulman 7:30 PM
Hanover @ Mount St. Joseph 7:30 PM

January 8th
Mount St. Joseph @ Manchester 1:00 PM
Rose-Hulman @ Bluffton 1:00 PM
Hanover @ Earlham 1:00 PM
Defiance @ Transylvania 1:00 PM
Franklin @ Anderson 1:00 PM

[Enginerd]

I just hope we get to watch some more Division III basketball. Surely they wouldn't shut things down again like they did in 2020 but you never know. Division I will keep on trucking - too much money at stake.

Most reports have Omicron no worse than flu, isolation and shutdowns ineffective anyway, and case rates expected to plummet by end of January.  Would sure be a shame if they shut it down in that context.

Important to add "if vaccinated;" illness and hospitalization rates aren't that different for the unvaccinated..

Exactly correct - unvaccinated folks with pre-existing conditions are still getting sick and dying at the same rates they were before. Even vaccinated folks should do whatever necessary to avoid exposure because each individual genome is different. 90+% of hospitalizations are unvaccinated but nobody wants to be the outlier.
I'm half-expecting the HCAC to outlaw fans.

[Jester1390]

Holy crap a run on smites on me.  I need to have a strong quarter need to break the press better

[Roundball999]

I just hope we get to watch some more Division III basketball. Surely they wouldn't shut things down again like they did in 2020 but you never know. Division I will keep on trucking - too much money at stake.

Most reports have Omicron no worse than flu, isolation and shutdowns ineffective anyway, and case rates expected to plummet by end of January.  Would sure be a shame if they shut it down in that context.

Important to add "if vaccinated;" illness and hospitalization rates aren't that different for the unvaccinated..

Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of the vaccines but... the biology of Omicron is different than Delta and earlier variants.  Latest studies show it attacks primarily upper airways not lungs like the others.  It is VERY catchy which is why cloth masks worn widely today aren't very effective vs Omicron and partly why case rates and therefore hospitalizations are rising.  But SEVERITY of illness with Omicron is less than other variants even for unvaccinated.   With Delta, death rates were statistically correlated with case rates.  With Omicron, that correlation is missing.  There was even an article in the WSJ two days ago saying Omicron might even be beneficial in that it's rapid spread without the same death rate as previous variants might push us finally closer to herd immunity.  But yes, vaccines are still the best protection.  Lots of data out there showing lockdowns/shutdowns don't work which, back to basketball, is why I think it would be a shame... 

[Jester1390]

Franklin for what it's worth. The media program has the probable starters and usually is correct. They don't have Cross listed but do have Nix.  So it looks like Nix is back but Cross might still be out

My kid will be guarding Nix at least at start of game.  Black and Wilson are out so told the kid you ha e to fire tonight lol but we will see

Engine     Webster had also rejoined the team and will suit up tonight. Not sure if she will play but with 2 guards down she might    It will be interesting to see if Igehon plays at all or if not ready yet

[Jester1390]

My plus minus rating is terribble.  I need to get some of Miac dads on here and get me some likes

[RogK]

https://www.d3hoops.com/top25/women/2021-22/week4
Transylvania is now #4.
Is that too low? Too high? Precisely correct?

[Jester1390]

Might be high.  They are really good at home.  They beat tufts on road.  We ha e played them tough even the past 2 years when the girls were learning. Rose I think has the talent to beat them at home important to get the playoffs at your site.  I think both teams will roll through conference unless Covid throws something off.  Rose has a better chance of being upsetted I think then they do.   

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I feel like the Pioneers should be around 7 or 8. Tufts is at #9 and Transylvania gave them their only loss by 1.
Also, not really used to an HCAC team being ranked top 5 in pretty much any sport so it just feels weird.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I've got Transy 9 (I've been given a vote in the women's poll this year.  I haven't been as vocal about it, because I'm new and want to make sure I'm confident in my knowledge before I spout off too much) - the Tufts win is good, obviously, but it was very early in the season and the rest of the schedule isn't super great.  I like the team a lot, but probably not a Top 5 resume.  That big zero at the end of the record sure looks good, though.

[Enginerd]

Transylvania is not a Top-5 team. Their only significant win on the road over the past five years was at Tufts this year - and Tufts doesn't exactly have a signature win in 2020-21 themselves. Tufts' best win is probably over 10-1 Worcester Poly. The teams on Tufts' schedule are usually pretty strong but having somewhat mediocre years, especially MIT and UMass Dartmouth. Don't get me wrong, Transy is good and certainly deserving of a Top-15-20 ranking, but it's pretty obvious that even a team having a fantastic year with plenty of good wins isn't going to slide very far up the rankings if they don't have any cachet with the voters. Transy had a nice little run a couple years ago in reaching the Sweet-16, and then hosted again in 2019-20. That's why they are ranked #4 right now. My theory is that voters have a pre-selected group of about 30-35 teams that they have internalized, and only move a new team in there if they are having an extraordinary season or the usual suspects have too many losses.

A couple of examples from the D3Hoops poll and admittedly I'm a partisan looking at my own team's travails;

- Rose-Hulman absolutely SMOKES Illinois Wesleyan by 35 points in 2015-16 and finishes 23-4 to IWU's 17-10 - yet when D3Hoops published it's pre-season Top-25 for 2016-17, RHIT got one vote to IWU's FORTY SIX.

- In 2018-19 the D3 Hoops pre-season poll situated defending UAA champion Chicago at #7 with 474 votes while the team that handed them one of those three losses (AT Chicago), RHIT, garnered 30 votes off their 24-4 campaign that saw them finish ranked #3 in the rugged Great Lakes region and finish the regular season ranked as the #3 scoring defense in Division III. I'm not suggesting that either IWU or Chicago didn't deserve those votes  -merely highlighting the discrepancy.

As for the WBCA Poll
RHIT ran roughshod through the HCAC in 2017-18, finishing the regular season 22-3 - yet never got so much as a single vote in the WBCA poll - at one point in late January 2017 a 16-3 (12-0) RHIT team, whose only losses that season were to the WBCA's #2, #9, and #23-ranked teams (by a combined 11 points), AND whom possessed a win on the road at the WBCA's #16-ranked Chicago (which was all alone in 1st place in the UAA at that time and would eventually win a game in the NCAA Tournament and finish 24-3), received not a single WBCA vote, while the WBCA's #16-ranked team at the time, Ohio Northern, had already lost to Bluffton, whom RHIT had defeated by 24 a couple weeks earlier

Again, all these things, while perplexing in the extreme for a fan, can at least be chalked up to the relative indifference of the voters, and their adherence to schools that have "tradition" year in and out.

What blew my mind that year and that late-January poll was the fact that one of those voters stubbornly clung to Transylvania, voting for them even after they suffered a double-digit defeat AT HOME to RHIT, AND having a lower SOS AND one more loss. So, after watching RHIT thoroughly dominate TU over the previous weekend, I thought surely this lone voter would notice all RHIT's strengths, would have their interest piqued, would take a look and notice everything mentioned above - would actually look at RHIT's resume (which they presumably did when voting for Transylvania). I was wrong. Not only did this voter inexplicably cast a vote for Transylvania the two previous weeks over a conference school with a far better resume and whom had beaten them convincingly, when Transylvania lost to RHIT a second time, they chose to pretend as though it had never happened. No vote for Transylvania anymore, but certainly no way they will be swayed by a team they voted for being swept by a team with a better record, better SOS, and more quality wins.

Bottom line is, the HCAC needs to win more often in the NCAA's so the conference will gain a bit more respect and be taken seriously by voters when they have good years in the future. Transy is off to a good start this year, and they're being rewarded by the voters for the past few seasons of good play with a high ranking. I sure hope RHIT gives them a good game in two weeks.

[Enginerd]

I've got Transy 9 (I've been given a vote in the women's poll this year.  I haven't been as vocal about it, because I'm new and want to make sure I'm confident in my knowledge before I spout off too much) - the Tufts win is good, obviously, but it was very early in the season and the rest of the schedule isn't super great.  I like the team a lot, but probably not a Top 5 resume.  That big zero at the end of the record sure looks good, though.

Ryan, that pretty much sums it up. If they manage to win the HCAC again they'll undoubtedly get to host two winnable games in the NCAA's and thereafter run into someone they couldn't possibly beat - like Thomas More in 2019. That probably makes them a legit Top-10 poll-team right now and around #15-#20 in the final poll.

Transy does have one potential hurdle remaining, however. RHIT is a completely different team than the one that started the year 2-4. Their PG is a lot of fun to watch and they finally have her healthy - she is a player and was in fact the state of California's Sophomore of the Year in 2018 - so it wouldn't be a fluke. They've got several others that can really play but I do worry about their depth - perhaps getting Igiehon back will help. Jester didn't she have a bunch of Division I offers as well?

They don't deserve any attention at the moment but by the time this is all said and done RHIT MIGHT wind up being the best or 2nd-best team Transy faces during the regular season. I expect their game on the 22nd this month to be one of the best match-ups in all of NCAA Division III that weekend.

Loved your write-up on the Yeshiva-IWU game - best one on here since the Grinnell article. That one might've been yours as well.

[Jester1390]

Engine game is on for tonight  kid just left for the gym. I would not expect to see Igehon