WBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[Jester1390]

Round I would also say this.  Much like the central division in football the teams really know each other so its always a tough game no matter strength of squad.   Its the same for Rose and Transy. The Rose squad you are watching are mostly juniors who all came in together and as freshman there were 7 of them and 1 senior thats it.  All the upperclassmen left for one reason or another and the whole recruiting classes from the previous 2 years just to be blunt couldn't cut the rigors of the school or decided basketball was to hard to participate and keep up with their studies. 

Even then though they have given Transy hard fought games. They just bring out really good play in each other. I think the rivalry is just there.  Now dont get me wrong I believe Rose is the best 6-5 team in the country. If they scheduled like most teams they would probably only have 2 losses instead of 5.   The talent they have is top 25 in the country when whole squad is not in covid.  They will have the ability to beat Transy but in their gym its difficult but i hope they do. This group of players has bridge the gap from the rose team considered the best in their history to another  run as a really good team.  Those 7 freshman took their beatings heard the insults on how can they be losing to programs that they had been crushing for the last 4 years.   Now those same players along obviously with hein and baum are showing and saying hey if we had anything in the cupboard when we were freshman we would have been just fine.   Its a long way from their first game a 40 plus loss to Berea and having 36 turnovers.   Those 7 freshman Wilson was a sophomore but didnt play ball as a freshman have come so far and hopefully will get a chance to show what a team of really smart kids who on average is each paying 25-40-k a year for school who are just dedicated to excelling at every stage of college. They are not made to fail and the atmosphere is  we wont allow you to fail if you put in the work and time.  Basketball is important to the players but just speaking on my kids behalf its not the end all to be all.

I was a parent proud of my daughters talents like most parents.  Then one time when we were going on school visits she said to me Dad. I love basketball but basketball is just a part of me its not  just who i am.  Made this guy reevaluate how he was handling his daughters  visits and what did she want to get out of basketball not what I wanted.

I am once again going through that as I really would love to see her play an extra year she is the last of my kids but i know its not going to happen as when i brought it up she just simply said No Dad we are all going to be making  six figures and having jobs but ill make sure I play you in a couple games of Horse.

[Jester1390]

Franklin  did you just graduate way more talent then i remember or did you lose players to attrition. I remember 2 years ago franklin being athletic and quick and young just seems you have fallen  more greatly then  they should have,   Nix good player and Cross scores but she does not move well at all she in my opinion is one of those players I  talk about that score 14 but she gives up 10 or more on the defensive side or because she doesn't get back quick enough.

I know Kahlan was really nervous to play them she just remembered how in the past it was a tough matchup style wise for them but it wasn't the case this year but Franklin also didnt have Cross

[Roundball999]

Jester, makes sense.  Hope/Calvin is usually the same way, always close hard fought games.  A little different these past few years as Hope has been unusually strong and Calvin has had a deeper down cycle than is typical.

The extra year thing is really tough.  The reality is most of these young women are not as focused on the sport as their male counterparts to begin with and when they leave college most will hang up the sneakers for good and not think much about it.  To your point the opportunity cost of that extra year for your daughter is maybe $60K for tuition and fees PLUS losing that year of an engineer's salary, could total $150K or more.  That's magnified because it is early in a career, could end up being one of the largest financial decisions of her life.  I know it's not all about the benjamins but that's a pretty big deal.  As a parent, I'd probably only endorse the extra year if the college had graduate programs in line with her career interest or it allowed a double degree (engineering and business is a fabulous combo).

[Jester1390]

Thats my hope as a dad who doesnt want it to end but knows it will.  That her job would want her to get a masters and offer to pay it but even then I know it will be a no unless for some reason she was at home. But she has been offered jobs already  upon graduation with major companies. I think the coolest thing so far was she was interviewed by the secret service.  Not her cup of tea but I think its very cool.  I have learned with my daughter at Rose.  Is man i really was going nowhere as a kid.  I didnt have anyone talking to me. I wasn't getting flown on Private planes to companies and getting 30 bucks a hour as an intern. Being interviewed by state departments and secret service.  I was playing a mean game of pool though. Thank god for the military for growing me up.

I kid but it is really amazing just the different world that opens up for a person in high academics  Im not as smart as my daughter but if kids like me had any idea what world would open up for them we might have tried a little harder in school. 

[Enginerd]

Franklin had a 2 point lead headed to the 4th, but Defiance went on a 13-2 run to start the quarter. Grizzlies cut the lead down to 2 with under 3 minutes left but couldn't get closer. Shot 2 of 13 from behind the arc and committed too many fouls. Yellow Jackets hit 27 of 33 from the line.
Good news is winless Earlham is up next, bad news is last time they were scheduled to play it was cancelled.

Anderson destroyed MSJ right out of the gate. Ravens had a 14-0 lead before the Lions hit a FT midway through the quarter, then Anderson went on a 19-0 run before MSJ hit their first FG 2 minutes into the 2nd quarter. It was 30-1 after one quarter.

Rose has a good team but the profile just isn't there to get a pool C bid. They've played several good teams but lost them all (even if the largest margin is only 10). The good news is they are certainly capable of winning the conference tournament and getting pool A. It's a far cry from the preseason poll which had them tied for 7th a looooong way behind 6th.

Agreed - the Fightin' Engineers are not Pool C candidates this season. They are 1-3 against likely RRO and just got off to a slow start.

After watching today, and knowing the team has not played in two weeks and many of the girls are shaking off Covid, it's apparent to me that if Transy is the #3 team in the country, RHIT is as good as anyone that IS ranked, with but a handful of exceptions such as Hope.

They missed Jester's length on defense and Fults' rebounding and defense today - and it's obvious that Hein and Baum are still a little shaky from the lay-off. Hopefully they'll respect everyone left on the schedule and not lose a game they shouldn't to finish 14-5 (12-2) and get the #2 seed for the HCAC Tournament. This is a two-team show and RHIT will be a hell of a tough out in late-February/early March.

Had some internet trouble so didn't get to see all of the game but it sure was a nail biter.  Agree with most everything you said; RHIT vastly improved, solid and scrappy and will be a tough out for anyone.  I can't imagine they will lose again before the tournament except maybe to Transy and that is no sure thing either.  They have a real shot at the AQ.

On the other hand, on eye test Transy doesn't look like the #3 team to me.  Massey has them at #12 and that seems more likely.  The defense looked very porous to me; if RHIT hits one or two more of those open 12 footers in the lane the game goes the other way.  Seems to me voters are still giving lots of weight to the Tufts win (no doubt, it was a great win) but the voters also had Tufts much higher at the time.  Then again, Transy keeps beating everyone while most of the other top teams have taken losses, what more can they do?  Voters usually loathe to drop a team unless it takes a loss.  I could be way off; this is really the only time I've seen them this year and could just be that RHIT gave them a really tough game.  Really not fair to judge on basically one game.

Yesterday was the game that clinched (at least) two home games in the NCAA Tournament for Transylvania. They aren't going to lose to anyone else they play this year other than possibly RHIT in the HCAC Championship game. Even if they WERE to lose that game they'll still host. The NCAA apparently loves Lexington, KY's location and Transy hosted a couple years ago when they absolutely DIDN'T deserve to host - so they're hosting a pod opening weekend win or lose on February 26th - you can take that to the bank.

They'll get a pretty good draw with the ODAC champion, the USA South champ, and an at-large from just about anywhere east of the Mississippi. They'll have a great shot to win both games and then they'll have to hope they won't run into Hope until the Elite 8  - because that's where there season will end - whenever they play Hope. Just like everyone else in March.

[Jester1390]

I have been told the same about lexington as far as it being loved for games to be played

[Jester1390]

Ilike using the massey program but i dont understand how rose falls 6 spots with a loss to well the program has them number 12 Transy  by 4 in overtime. seems that would warrant a move up

[Roundball999]

Ilike using the massey program but i dont understand how rose falls 6 spots with a loss to well the program has them number 12 Transy  by 4 in overtime. seems that would warrant a move up

Well the whole Massey system is based on complex mathematical models and simultaneous equations so there's probably no easy answer to your question.  But one thing Massey points out is that the result of one game is not the entire story; one has to look at all the other results (who won, who lost, what were respective schedule strengths, etc) to better understand why a team is rated where it's rated.

One note from Massey: "Aggressive scheduling is not penalized, but instead raises the potential rating that a team may reach. However, scheduling alone doesn't earn a high rating - there must be success against it.  For a single game, it is better to defeat a poor team than lose to a good team. However, that team's ranking may fall because another team had a more impressive win."

Also:  "In essence, each game "connects" two teams via an equation. As more games are played, eventually each team is connected to every other team through some chain of games. When this happens, the system of equations is coupled and a computer is necessary to solve them simultaneously.  The ratings are totally interdependent, so that a team's rating is affected by games in which it didn't even play. The solution therefore effectively depends on an infinite chain of opponents, opponents' opponents, opponents' opponents' opponents, etc. The final ratings represent a state of equilibrium in which each team's rating is exactly balanced by its good and bad performances."

If you're really having trouble sleeping, you can dive in here:  https://masseyratings.com/theory/massey.htm#overview

[Enginerd]

Ilike using the massey program but i dont understand how rose falls 6 spots with a loss to well the program has them number 12 Transy  by 4 in overtime. seems that would warrant a move up

Well the whole Massey system is based on complex mathematical models and simultaneous equations so there's probably no easy answer to your question.  But one thing Massey points out is that the result of one game is not the entire story; one has to look at all the other results (who won, who lost, what were respective schedule strengths, etc) to better understand why a team is rated where it's rated.

One note from Massey: "Aggressive scheduling is not penalized, but instead raises the potential rating that a team may reach. However, scheduling alone doesn't earn a high rating - there must be success against it.  For a single game, it is better to defeat a poor team than lose to a good team. However, that team's ranking may fall because another team had a more impressive win."

Also:  "In essence, each game "connects" two teams via an equation. As more games are played, eventually each team is connected to every other team through some chain of games. When this happens, the system of equations is coupled and a computer is necessary to solve them simultaneously.  The ratings are totally interdependent, so that a team's rating is affected by games in which it didn't even play. The solution therefore effectively depends on an infinite chain of opponents, opponents' opponents, opponents' opponents' opponents, etc. The final ratings represent a state of equilibrium in which each team's rating is exactly balanced by its good and bad performances."

If you're really having trouble sleeping, you can dive in here:  https://masseyratings.com/theory/massey.htm#overview

It's difficult for me to take Massey very seriously when RHIT is ranked 99th - fully 67 spots behind a team (IWU) they beat on their home floor - and they'd beat them again if they played tomorrow. Plus- there are multiple teams with LOSING records ahead of RHIT.

99th is a joke.

Bottom line - RHIT is one of the 30 best teams in Division III basketball, but to prove it they'll need to finally take care of Transy on Feb. 26th. RHIT is not the 99th-best team in America. Anyone who's seen them play from their third game of the year on would agree.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Massey is going to be even farther off than normal this year, because it doesn't take into account who's playing in any game.  All the COVID games, with missed players, and out of the ordinary results are just factored into the algorithms, regardless of reality.  I wouldn't worry too much about it.

[Baldini]

The problem for RHIT with Massey is they use all the games, as much as some RHIT fans want to wish away the loses to Berea and North Park they are still used. RHIT hanging their hat on one quality win just isn't enough for a team 1 game over .500. Losing close games really isn't flying, it's just falling with style. (Stealing one from Woody there.) 

[Roundball999]

Massey is just math.  It can't eyeball a team, nor does it really comprehend a really significant improvement in play, new players or injuries, or similar.  Aside from the win vs IWU (#32), what Massey "sees" in RHIT is losses to everyone rated #138 or better and all the wins coming against teams rated #190 or worse.   But I agree, RHIT is playing MUCH better now than it's Massey rating, top 30 seems plausible to me. 

I find Massey to be surprisingly accurate starting after January 1 and only when teams being considered are generally playing to the same form that they have all along.  If something significant has changed, it isn't very useful.

[Jester1390]

ok ill put up their non conference against almost anyone's. Now all of sudden North park is a bad team. Berea is going to win their conference.   Webster plays in the worse conference  and are up way high because they have beaten up on the sisters of the poor.  There is a huge difference in holding your own against top 20 teams  and now top 5 teams then having a schedule that lines up puff creams. Or in some parts of the country cream puffs.   now you can argue from here on out Rose schedule wont be hard as hanover and franklin have taken a step back

[Baldini]

ok ill put up their non conference against almost anyone's. Now all of sudden North park is a bad team. Berea is going to win their conference.   Webster plays in the worse conference  and are up way high because they have beaten up on the sisters of the poor.  There is a huge difference in holding your own against top 20 teams  and now top 5 teams then having a schedule that lines up puff creams. Or in some parts of the country cream puffs.   now you can argue from here on out Rose schedule wont be hard as hanover and franklin have taken a step back

When was this game with Webster? It is not on either teams website, D3 Hoops, Massey, no one lists the game as having been played. This isn't the overactive Jester imagination at work again, is it?

RHIT had a very nice non-conference schedule for them, but hardly a murders row.

[Jester1390]

No I was using Webster as a example of a school with a great record but haven't played much of anyone but are undefeated