South Region Rankings and Playoffs

[Ron Boerger]

Too bad Trinity had that run of bad games when Krista Prato-Matthews was injured, otherwise today's win would have probably clinched a pool C bid for them.   They have to beat Oglethorpe (again) tomorrow to get in, which would mean Ogle would get a C and kick someone out of the tourney.   Does DePauw get a C after today's loss?  Only 5 losses on the season, you'd think so but both Ogle and DPU were going to get in regardless of what happened in the SCAC tourney. 

Yes, I know, you're all going to pull for O'thorpe (up big on Centre at the moment) tomorrow.   

[GuyFormerlyPSBBG]

New regional rankings

South Region
1. Oglethorpe 17-3 22-3  Won QF
2. Greensboro 23-0 24-1   Lost in Finals to CNU
3. Texas-Dallas 21-3 21-4  Lost in the QF's
4. Mississippi Col. 21-3 22-3  Lost in the QF's
5. Roanoke 20-3 22-3   Lost to Bridgewater in Semis
6. Randolph-Macon 17-4 20-5  Won QF


(Trinity beat DePauw in SCAC Semi's).

Ouch the south hasn't faired too well in conference tournaments.

Now, do you expect Greensboro to get a Pool C bid.

[Ron Boerger]

Easily.

[shsfan]

Ron - your response regarding Greensboro was absolutely correct, but this was an easy question. What about Pool C bids for the others in the South Region list that are finished as of tonight? Thanks!

[Ron Boerger]

ralph is the expert, and i'm playing at a concert right now :-;

[shsfan]

Sorry. What concert? What instrument?

[Ralph Turner]

Ron - your response regarding Greensboro was absolutely correct, but this was an easy question. What about Pool C bids for the others in the South Region list that are finished as of tonight? Thanks!

I don't know.  There is so much carnage in the South that I have not figured it out.

MissColl and UTD were ranked by they lost in the first round.

McMurry had been regionally ranked, but lost (a heartbreaker) today.

HPU and HSU gained more in-region wins.

I look at these rankings as ordinal but they are not cardinal numbers.  "One" is not "one" better than "two". One is about 0.1263432543 better than two.

[Ralph Turner]

New regional rankings

South Region
1. Oglethorpe 17-3 22-3  Won QF and SF. Plays Trinity TX.
2. Greensboro 23-0 24-1   Lost in Finals to CNU
3. Texas-Dallas 21-3 21-4  Lost in the QF's
4. Mississippi Col. 21-3 22-3  Lost in the QF's
5. Roanoke 20-3 22-3   Won QF Lost to Bridgewater in Semis
6. Randolph-Macon 17-4 20-5  Won QF  and SF Plays Bridgewater

Maryville GSAC AQ
CNU USA South AC AQ.


(Trinity beat DePauw in SCAC Semi's).

Ouch the south hasn't faired too well in conference tournaments.

Now, do you expect Greensboro to get a Pool C bid.

Probably, but they showed their vulnerability.

[golden_dome]

This is far from scientific, but here are some numbers I put together based on numbers through the weekend. This is based on the D3hoops regional records and I assumed everyone's opponents had played a total of about 500 games entering the tourney, it makes the math easier and looking up every opponents regional record would take a week. I just added the tournament records. But like I said, this is just something to give an idea of how things are shaking out.

Mississippi College 21-4, .518 OWP
UTD 21-4, .504 OWP
McMurry 19-5, .507 OWP
Howard Payne 21-5 (one game left) .531 OWP
Hardin-Simmons 19-5 (one game left) .515 OWP
Randolph-Macon 20-5 (one game left), .548 OWP
Roanoke 21-4, .492 OWP
Trinity 18-5 (one game left), .503 OWP

Those are the top pool C candidates from the south. For MC, they need Oglethorpe to beat Trinity, Randolph-Macon to beat Bridgewater, and for HPU to beat HSU tomorrow. I just don't think Hardin-Simmons or Trinity can get Pool C's if those numbers are even close to right.

So lets say HPU, RMC and Oglethorpe win tomorrow. This is how the rankings could settle out just based on regional winning percentage and OWP. The OOWP should not factor much for ASC schools because they are all about .500.

South Region
1. Oglethorpe 20-3   AQ
2. Greensboro 23-1    Pool C
3. Randolph-Macon 20-5 AQ
4. Howard Payne 22-5  AQ
5. Mississippi College 21-4 Pool C
6. Texas-Dallas 21-4   Pool C
7. McMurry 19-5 Pool C
8. Hardin-Simmons 19-6   Pool C
9. Roanoke 21-4  Pool C
10. Trinity  18-6  Pool C

I think McMurry will end up behind MC and UTD because of the worse regional ranking, and the same or worse OWP. HSU could be in the same boat, two extra regional losses without a better OWP. Other criteria will not move them up if regional record and schedule strength separates them. If it shakes out like that, I wouldn't be completely shocked seeing three Pool C's from the ASC if upsets are few and far between around the country.

[Ralph Turner]

HPU got good in-region wins over Colorado College twice and Nebraska Wesleyan.

[SabineBBall]

Thanks for the info Chris.  MC was behind UTD going into the weekend so not sure why they would jump them since they both lost 1st round.  Of course HPU had a better record than UMHB but couldn't have made that big of a difference.  Also if HPU wins and moves into last regional rankings (the one not released??).  That gives UTD another win over a regional ranked opponent that MC doesn't have.  If HPU wins I don't see how MC jumps over them in the regional rankings.

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks for the info Chris.  MC was behind UTD going into the weekend so not sure why they would jump them since they both lost 1st round.  Of course HPU had a better record than UMHB but couldn't have made that big of a difference.  Also if HPU wins and moves into last regional rankings (the one not released??).  That gives UTD another win over a regional ranked opponent that MC doesn't have.  If HPU wins I don't see how MC jumps over them in the regional rankings.

I really have a hard time going with a .518 over a .504.  That is only 2.7% better.  I don't think that we can say that this difference is statistically significant.

Where the stat might make sense is with Chapman men (.361) versus Maryville TN men (.489).

[golden_dome]

Sabine and Ralph,
   You both might be right, I don't know what the committee considers statistically significant regarding the OWP. I'll use pabegg's RPI rankings for the men as an example though. He has been very close on his pool C projections in the past and he shared his formula which is the standard 25%/50%/25% RPI that DI uses for regional record, OWP and OOWP.

   Basically, using that forumula a 20-5 team with OWP of .500 is statistically even to a team that is 15-10 with a .600. I'm just making an educated guess on this, but from that I deducted that each OWP difference of .01 was worth about 1 win or 1 loss difference in the regional rankings. That is probably less significant than the other advantages UTD holds, but I was just using records and the OWP.

   I do think UTD and MC will both be the first pool c selections from the ASC though just based on criteria. They both have statistically significant advantages in regional ranking and a slightly better OWP.

[nash]

Congrats to HPU. 

[Ralph Turner]

BRACKET 7
1 Oglethorpe *
2 Greensboro *
3 Texas-Dallas
4 Howard Payne
5 Randolph-Macon
6 Christopher Newport
7 Transylvania *
8 Maryville (Tenn.) *

Projected bracket--

IMHO CNU knocked the third ASC team out of the tourney.

Oglethorpe hosts the *teams.

I hope to see the UTD site get a tourney.