D 3 softball

[WLCALUM83]

Last Top 25 Poll I saw had Moravian ranked 4th, so even if that squad lost later today, I'd be surprised if the Greyhounds don't get in as a Pool C. After that, it gets interesting, 7th ranked Belhaven, 15th ranked Wartburg, and 18th ranked Mt. Union  are probably going to have to sweat it out. 19 St. Olaf (even with a loss today), 21 Rowan, 23 St. Scholastica and 24 Williams are also in contention.

As far as ARV, Aurora, Hope and Bethel-MN are also in contention. Currently un-ranked Trine is also in the running.

It may depend on where ETBU is playing, If a regional is held at a ASC school, I think Belhaven is in. In that event, perhaps Mary Hardin-Baylor? (and the West outside of ASC teams would end up there.)

Ditto for ARC squad Wartburg (and perhaps once ARV Coe)
C2C runner-up has a good chance to get in.

Other squads to consider:  UMAC runner-up St. Scholastica, CCIW runner-up IL Wesleyan, OAC runner up (either ONU or Muskingum) and WIAC runner up (either Oshkosh or Whitewater), USA South runner-up NC Wesleyan, ODAC runner-up Lynchburg???

If overall regular season records are a big-time factor, of what I've covered, Moravian (even with a loss today), #21 Rowan, #20 Concordia-WI, #19 St. Olaf (even with a loss today), Mt Union's chances would be better (not a lock), and IL Wesleyan and the WIAC runner up I speculate appear to be "near locks" to get in. I'd also be surprised if Trine was left out.

Something's going to have to give somewhere, though --depending on what is decided with East Region squads that deiscanton is covering (especially if there were a lot of upsets in those conference tournaments). 

[deiscanton]

5/16 Schedule: 

OAC, MIAC and WIAC determine their AQ's  out of Midwest/Central/some Great Lakes (best of my knowledge that's all that's left to determine)

deiscanton will chime in with the rest.

Thank you.  I plan to watch Landmark, Skyline, and SCIAC.  Landmark Game 3 starts at 11 AM Eastern between Scranton and Moravian-- The Skyline starts at noon with Manhattanville v Farmingdale State (Manhattanville needs 1 win for AQ, while Farmingdale needs 2), and the SCIAC starts at 2 PM Eastern/11 AM Pacific with Redlands v Chapman-- (Chapman is designated home team for first game today and needs 2 wins for AQ, while Redlands needs 1).

PS-- Without a deep analysis, if Scranton wins today, I have Moravian as my C1 pick-- it is the only team potentially on the board that would be a Pool C lock given their winning percentage.    When you can only pick 6 teams for a Pool C at large bid, you would need a Pool C candidate with a winning percentage above .900 to even start thinking about that team as a potential lock.

[deiscanton]

Teams already in the 2021 NCAA DIII Softball Tournament through automatic qualification:

Updated through games played as May 16, 2021-- 7:25 AM Eastern

Atlantic Region:

1.)  Centennial-- Gettysburg
2.)  Coast to Coast-- Salisbury
3.)  Landmark--
4.)  ODAC-- Virginia Wesleyan (clinched 5/9/2021 at approx 5:17 PM Eastern)
5.)  Southern Athletic Association-- Birmingham-Southern
6.)  USA South-- Piedmont (clinched 5/9/2021 at approx 3:06 PM Eastern)

Central Region

1.)  Allegheny Mountain-- Penn State Behrend (clinched May 15)
2.)  Heartland-- Mt. St. Joseph (clinched May 15)
3.)  Michigan IAA-- Calvin (clinched May 15)
4.)  North Coast Athletic Conf-- DePauw (clinched May 14)
5.)  Ohio Athletic Conf--
6.)  Presidents-- Geneva

East Region

1.)  CUNYAC-- No teams playing this season
2.)  CSAC-- Cedar Crest
3.)  MAC-Commonwealth-- York (PA) (clinched May 15)
4.)  MAC-Freedom-- Stevens (clinched May 15)
5.)  NJAC-- The College of New Jersey (clinched May 14)

Great Lakes Region

1.)  CCIW-- Millikin (clinched May 15)
2.)  Midwest-- Illinois College (clinched May 15)
3.)  Northern Athletics CC-- MSOE (clinched May 15)
4.)  WIAC--

Midwest Region

1.)  American Rivers-- Luther (clinched May 15)
2.)  Minnesota IAC--
3.)  SLIAC-- Webster
4.)  Upper Midwest-- UW-Superior (clinched May 15)

New England Region

1.)  Commonwealth Coast-- Endicott
2.)  GNAC-- Emmanuel
3.)  Little East-- Eastern Connecticut State (clinched 5/15)
4.)  MASCAC-- Bridgewater State (clinched 5/15)
5.)  NECC-- Eastern Nazarene (Clinched 5/9 approx 3:46 PM Eastern)
6.)  NESCAC-- Tufts
7.)  NEWMAC-- Babson (clinched 5/15)
8.)  North Atlantic-- Husson (clinched 5/15)

Northeast Region

1.)  Empire 8-- Alfred (clinched 5/15)
2.)  Liberty League-- Rochester (clinched 5/15)
3.)  NEAC-- Penn College (clinched 5/15)
4.)  Skyline--
5.)  SUNYAC-- SUNY-Geneseo (clinched 5/15)

West Region

1.)  ASC-- East Texas Baptist
2.)  Northwest-- Linfield
3.)  SCIAC--
4.)  SCAC-- Texas Lutheran

Selection announcement on ncaa.com Monday, May 17 at 1 PM Eastern.

[deiscanton]

My thoughts on Moravian--

Moravian is my Pool C1 lock if they lose to Scranton today.

Sure, if Moravian knew that Wesley was going to have a really good year, Moravian would have picked Wesley for their 4 game non-conference series to start the spring rather than Gwynedd-Mercy.  But, Moravian did go 4-0 against their only non-conference opponent of the year.

The Championships Committee and DIII Softball Committee know that most DIII teams this year are going to be operating under a conference-only games rule (I.E. no non-league games), so the .477 SOS that Moravian has coming into the week will not harm them.  Moreover, 2 games vs Scranton, a team with a winning percentage over .750, will not only boost the SOS, but also give Moravian more primary criteria results, as results vs a DIII team with a current winning percentage over .750 count as a primary criterion for Spring 2021 only.

However, you cannot ignore a .935 winning percentage (assuming that Scranton wins today for the AQ), nor a 5-2 mark versus DIII teams with a winning percentage over .750 as factors in Moravian's side.

Moravian gets the first of my Pool C picks if they lose today, and I will not have to worry too much about the rest of the Atlantic Region.  If Moravian wins, I will have to explore other Atlantic Region scenarios-- such as if a Pool C pick should even go to an Atlantic Evaluation Region side this year.

[WLCALUM83]

Using "Conference Only" parameters, here's what I find for non-AQ squads for who I followed: (couldn't find strength of schedule)

NACC:  Concordia-WI and Aurora both 18-2 in conference (.900 pct.) Benedictine 17-3 (.850)
CCIW:  IL Wesleyan 21-9 in-conference
MWC:   IL College 13-1 in conference (.929) Lake Forest 13-3 (.813)
WIAC:  Whitewater and Oshkosh both .714 in-conference, former squad 29-9 overall record going into today's final.
UMAC:  St. Scholastica 15-1 in-conference (.938)
MIAC:  St. Olaf 20-2 in conference (.909)
SLIAC;  Fontbonne 10-4 in conference (.714)
ARC:  Coe 18-6 in-conference (.750) Wartburg 17-7 (.708
MIAA:  Trine and Hope both finished 14-2 in-conference (.875 each) (Could be a very tough call here)
ASC:   Belhaven 22-5 in-conference (.815)
OAC:  Mt. Union 29-5 in-conference (.853), Muskingum 26-9 (.743), ONU 19-16 (.543)
NCAC:  Hiram 11-1 in conference (.917)
HCAC:  Transylvania 14-2 in-conference (.875) 28-10 overall
ODAC:  Ranked E&H 13-3 in-conference (.813), Lynchburg 15-5 (.750)
USA South:  Pfeiffer 9-3 in-conference (.750) NC Wes 10-4 (.714)
C2C:  Ranked CNU  4-2 in conference (.667) overall 28-12 (.700).

East Region:
NJAC:  Rowan 17-1 in-conference (.944)

Other runner-ups or high pct. in-conference record squads who determined their bids earlier:

SAA:  Ranked Berry 12-4 in conference (.750)
SCAC:  St. Thomas 15-5 in conference (.750)

Disclaimer: Just a more specific guide, no knock on any of these squads intended here. I realize strength of schedule also factors in.

[deiscanton]

My thoughts on Moravian--  (revised and updated edition)

Moravian is my Pool C1 lock if they lose to Scranton today.

Sure, if Moravian knew that Wesley was going to have a really good year, Moravian would have picked Wesley for their 4 game non-conference series to start the spring rather than Gwynedd-Mercy.  But, Moravian did go 4-0 against their only non-conference opponent of the year.

The Championships Committee and DIII Softball Committee know that most DIII teams this year are going to be operating under a conference-only games rule (I.E. no non-league games), so the .477 SOS that Moravian has coming into the week will not harm them.  Moreover, 3 games this week vs Scranton, a team with a winning percentage over .750, will not only boost the SOS, but also give Moravian more primary criteria results, as results vs a DIII team with a current winning percentage over .750 count as a primary criterion for Spring 2021 only.

However, you cannot ignore a .935 winning percentage (assuming that Scranton wins today for the AQ), nor a 5-2 mark versus DIII teams with a winning percentage over .750 as factors in Moravian's side. (Even if that 5-2-0 mark is against conference rival Scranton-- Moravian cannot control their conference schedule.)

Moravian gets the first of my Pool C picks if they lose today, and I will not have to worry too much about the rest of the Atlantic Region.  If Moravian wins, I will have to explore other Atlantic Region scenarios-- such as if a Pool C pick should even go to an Atlantic Evaluation Region side this year.

Just an update on Wesley and Gwynedd-Mercy this season-- both teams are in the Atlantic East Conference, which has no AQ. 

Gwynedd-Mercy finished 4-20-0 this year with a winning percentage of .167.

Wesley, in their final year as a softball team, won the 2021 Atlantic East Softball Tournament and posted a 22-1 mark in Atlantic East conference play. 

Wesley finished the regular season (including conference tournament) with a 24-5-0 record-- a winning percentage of .828.  Their 0-4 start at the start of the season probably killed any hopes of a Pool B bid for Wesley, however.

[deiscanton]

Last Top 25 Poll I saw had Moravian ranked 4th, so even if that squad lost later today, I'd be surprised if the Greyhounds don't get in as a Pool C. After that, it gets interesting, 7th ranked Belhaven, 15th ranked Wartburg, and 18th ranked Mt. Union  are probably going to have to sweat it out. 19 St. Olaf (even with a loss today), 21 Rowan, 23 St. Scholastica and 24 Williams are also in contention.

As far as ARV, Aurora, Hope and Bethel-MN are also in contention. Currently un-ranked Trine is also in the running.

It may depend on where ETBU is playing, If a regional is held at a ASC school, I think Belhaven is in. In that event, perhaps Mary Hardin-Baylor? (and the West outside of ASC teams would end up there.)

Ditto for ARC squad Wartburg (and perhaps once ARV Coe)
C2C runner-up has a good chance to get in.

Other squads to consider:  UMAC runner-up St. Scholastica, CCIW runner-up IL Wesleyan, OAC runner up (either ONU or Muskingum) and WIAC runner up (either Oshkosh or Whitewater), USA South runner-up NC Wesleyan, ODAC runner-up Lynchburg???

If overall regular season records are a big-time factor, of what I've covered, Moravian (even with a loss today), #21 Rowan, #20 Concordia-WI, #19 St. Olaf (even with a loss today), Mt Union's chances would be better (not a lock), and IL Wesleyan and the WIAC runner up I speculate appear to be "near locks" to get in. I'd also be surprised if Trine was left out.

Something's going to have to give somewhere, though --depending on what is decided with East Region squads that deiscanton is covering (especially if there were a lot of upsets in those conference tournaments).

You may have missed this earlier, but 2 of the 8 locations for this year's NCAA DIII Softball Tournament have already been announced by the Championships Committee at their last meeting.

East Texas Baptist University and Millikin were already announced as regional hosts a few weeks ago.  According to the Championships Committee, the other 6 predetermined sites should have been decided at the end of April, but they have yet to announce other locations.

One of the reasons why I am covering these conference tournaments so deeply this year is that it is the intent of DIII given the COVID-19 situation that these conference tournaments be treated as though they were preliminary qualifying rounds in the NCAA tournament.

Therefore given that only 6 teams can enter as Pool C picks this year (due to the approx 25% cut in field size for all team and individual tournaments for the academic year 2020-2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic's financial impacts on DIII), it is similar to the gameshows "Big Brother" and "Big Brother Canada" in that similar to the evicted houseguests, I am treating these teams as though they have already been eliminated once before and want to reenter the national tournament as a second chance opportunity.

[deiscanton]

We are underway in the Landmark Conference Championships Game 3--

First pitch was at 10:50 AM Eastern, as the umpires agreed to time the start of the game with the start of the Landmark Conference Digital stream.  Coverage started at 10:45 AM Eastern.

After 1/2 inning, Scranton 0, Moravian coming up the bat, as the Lady Royals went down 1-2-3 at the top of the inning.

Today's video coverage courtesy of the Greyhound Sports Network and the Landmark Conference Digital Network.

Sweeney is pitching and batting cleanup for Scranton, while Bauer is pitching for Moravian (but not batting).

[deiscanton]

Update--

Bottom of the first with 1 out

It is already Moravian 5, Scranton 0

Runs came in courtesy of an RBI single with bases loaded, followed by a grand slam home run.

[deiscanton]

Landmark:  Moravian 5, Scranton 0 after 1 inning.

Greyhounds got 5 runs on 3 hits in the bottom of the first-- the RBI single and the grand slam home run the most noteworthy of the hits.

[deiscanton]

Update

Landmark:  Moravian 6, Scranton 0  Bottom 3rd 2 out.

Run came on an RBI double with 1 out.

[deiscanton]

Update: 

Landmark:  Moravian 8, Scranton 0  Bottom of 3rd 2 out

Moravian just hit a 2 run homer.

[deiscanton]

Update:

Moravian 8, Scranton 0  after 3 innings.

Moravian scored 3 runs on 3 hits in the bottom of the third (The most noteworthy being the RBI double and the 2 run homer).

[deiscanton]

Landmark update:

Moravian 8, Scranton 1 after 3 1/2 innings.

Scranton scored a run in the top of the 4th off an RBI sacrifice fly to center with 1 out.

[deiscanton]

Landmark update:

Moravian 8, Scranton 3  Top 5th 1 out.

Scranton has scored 2 runs in the top of the 5th on 2 hits and 2 Moravian fielding errors.

Runners at the corners

Hummel now pitching for Moravian.

Moravian 8, Scranton 4 Top 5th 2 out.  RBI sacrifice groundout.

Moravian pitcher Hummel just walked in the 5th Scranton run.  Moravian 8, Scranton 5.

So far, Scranton has scored 4 runs this inning on 3 hits and 3 Moravian fielding errors.  Bases still loaded with 2 out.

Moravian 8, Scranton 5 after 4 1/2 innings.