MBB: University Athletic Association

[lefrakenstein]

Assuming 3-4 in-conference losses and undefeated out of conference the rest of the way (a stretch- they play a couple of tough teams), what are the judge's chances of an at large bid to the tourny? (6-7 in region losses)

[Hugenerd]

In that case, I think they would have a pretty decent shot, but I think going 11-3 or 10-4 in the UAA is going to be a very tough challenge for any team other than WashU.  Also, dont forget that Brandeis still plays Amherst out of conference so that is another potential loss.  That would be four losses out of conference and lets say they go 10-4 or 9-5, that would be 8 or 9 losses.  If they dont win the Amherst game, they really need to go 11-3 in conference to have a good shot (10-4 may get them considered at 17-8).  On the other hand, if they beat Amherst, which will undoubtedly be a huge regional victory, they would probably be in pretty good shape at 10-4.

[pabegg]

Assuming 3-4 in-conference losses and undefeated out of conference the rest of the way (a stretch- they play a couple of tough teams), what are the judge's chances of an at large bid to the tourny? (6-7 in region losses)

They should be in with 6 losses, barring some weird circumstances.
7 puts them firmly on the bubble

Last year's Brandeis team was 9-1 out of conference in-region. If they had been 7-3, they probably would have been out.

Only one team got a Pool C bid with 3 non-conference losses last year, WPI (at 8-3) but they were also 12-2 in conference. At that, only 2 Pool C bids went to teams with 2 non-conference losses (11-2 Middlebury and 4-2 Capital).

Brandeis' best shot is to duplicate Chicago's Pool A bid after a weak non-conference run last year.

[Hugenerd]

There is an additional Pool C this year, if I am not mistaken.  1 more overall bid + 1 fewer pool B - 1 more automatic = +1 Pool C (18 instead of 17).  That will help out one team this year.

[ILive4This]

While Brandeis should perhaps be 8-0 right now, or 7-1, one thing to keep in mind and that will help them if they win out or have just an Amherst loss (Amherst squeeked out a 2 pt win over emmanuel last week) is that all three of these teams were tournament teams last year and by the looks of it should be tournament teams again this year (UMD the exception as the LEC seems an interesting conference this year). 3 or 4 non-conf losses is a bit much but I do not think as dramatic as Chicago last year which had 6 or 7 if I am not mistaken.

[WAS A PLAYER]

Yes, but Chicago went to the tourney because they won the UAA. I'm not sure they get in  if they don't.

[Hugenerd]

Yeah, I am pretty sure Chicago would have been on the wrong side of the bubble if they had not won the conference last year (especially since that would have added another loss to their tally, making 9 losses on the year).   

The other positive for Brandeis is that two of their losses are to top 5 teams in the region (UMD and WPI) and those teams have a good shot at an AQ.  The other loss, to Lasell, is a worse loss but a single loss to a maginal team wont hurt them too much, especially in the first game of the year (Lasell has lost 4 times already so they are likely going to be ranked lower than Brandeis at the end of the year, even though they beat them, if things keep going the way they are, i know its early though) and Lasell also has a shot at an AQ in the GNAC.  Therefore, if Brandeis continues to play well from here on out, and wins 10 or so games in conference, they may be one of the first teams up for consideration out of the northeast because most of the teams ranked aheadof them  (possibly Amherst, WPI, UMD, etc) will likely get AQs, barring upsets (which I know always happen).  I think an important thing for Brandeis will be to stay consistent in UAA play and not have any "bad" conference losses to especially what appears to be the bottom 3 (Case, Emory, Chicago) and also beating middle-to-top conference teams like NYU, Rochester, and CMU at least 4 to 5 out of 6 games.  Taking a game off WashU wouldnt hurt either.  So in summary, I think the important think for Brandeis to get an at-large would be to first play well against their region opponents (teams that will be ranked in the northeast, the Amherst game is HUGE) so that they make it fairly quickly to the top of the region in order to be considered by the selection committee, then, I think the committee will be much more forgiving of a loss or two to WashU or a loss to CMU (if they are still ranked very highly) then if they have some scattered losses in conference to Case, Emory, etc.  But let me reiterate, they need to first take care of Framingham State, Curry (I dont think they could lose this game if they tried), and Amherst.

[pradam]

Just when I think Brandeis is turning things around, they go out and lose at home to Framingham State by 9.

Looking like Pool A or bust for the Judges.

Andre Roberson, Kevin Olson and Kenny Small went a combined 3/20 from the field.  Meanwhile, Framingham State went 9/15 from three.  Brandeis is missing Coppens and Graves-Fulgham far more than I expected (well, at least Coppens.  Figured DeLuca would replace most of his offense). 

[deiscanton]

Sorry, I had to be stuck at my house this week listening on my computer to the Brandeis men's team play home games , but such is my financial situation as of late.  My friend Mr. Paul is not in the best of health to be able to take me to every local Brandeis game and I have to save money when I can--  therefore, I could not attend the home games this week in the interest of getting enough money to attend the UAA games at home and maybe a trip to New York at the end of the season.   As for the Amherst game, since the game is in Amherst on a weekday night, someone would have to pick me up in the Canton, MA area, take me to Amherst and drive me back on the day of the game-- similar to what someone did when I went to Elms last year.

I thank the WBRS announcers for mentioning my absence this week on the radio, and I miss not being able to go to all of the Brandeis local games like I used to do, but if younger Brandeis fans are going to make me a scapegoat for the troubles of the Brandeis men's team, then they are going to get an earful from me.

As a Brandeis alum who has followed the UAA from the beginning, I have never seen a Brandeis men's basketball team who started the season at 0-3 then go on to make the NCAA tournament.  The best that I have seen Brandeis in this situation is a situation where the Judges go 14-11 and 7-7 in the UAA at best.  Usually, Brandeis teams that start at 0-3 have finished under .500-- in most cases getting less than 10 victories.  The last Brandeis team to start 0-3 before this year was during the time Chris Ford was coaching as an interim coach, and that team only had 7 or 8 wins at best.   When Kevin O'Brien was coaching the Judges, the NCAA field for the men's tournament had a maximum of 40 teams.  Only 2 to 4 teams from the Northeast Region were able to play each year in the NCAA DIII men's tournament.  I thought that my best Brandeis season on the men's side was going to be the team that won the ECAC New England tournament in 1992 by beating 3 NESCAC teams on the road in the postseason-- I never imagined a Brandeis team that was going to be good enough to make it to the Elite Eight when I was a student.  

When Brandeis was able to easily beat Tufts, Babson, Emerson, and RI College, a lot of people seemed to think that Brandeis had recovered from the 0-3 start.  A great Brandeis team should have been able to roll by Clark and Framingham State at home-- even without my presence to rally the team.  Brandeis barely got by Clark, and then LOST to Framingham State in the Auerbach Arena today.   This Brandeis team is clearly not as good as the team from last year, and I understand that.  

Maybe this Brandeis team can make it to the ECACs, and if so, it will still be a successful season in my book, even if it didn't meet the expectations that a lot of people had for the Brandeis men at the start of the season.  I have to put the NCAAs on the back burner for this season after this performance against Framingham State, and just take it game by game.  As for Wash U, I pick the Bears to go 2-0 against Brandeis this season.  

[Titan Q]

Watch Chicago @ Carleton...

http://secure.stretchinternet.com/demo/games.php?user=carleton&o=cal_stamp&sd=today

[Hugenerd]

Watch Chicago @ Carleton...

http://secure.stretchinternet.com/demo/games.php?user=carleton&o=cal_stamp&sd=today

Watch them lose by 1 again....

Chicago now 0-9 with a very real chance of going 0-11 out of conference (then they get to play WashU in their first conference game).  Whoever said Chicago would miss Nate Hainje more than WashU would miss Troy Ruths looks to be spot on.  I am sure WashU misses Ruths, but they are still undefeated and ranked #1.  Chicago, meanwhile, has lost 9 straight (10 straight going back to last year) and 6 of those 9 losses are by 3 points or less.  It looks like they dont have anyone to make that last shot to come up with some close wins, like Hainje did last year.

Chicago now has as many losses as WashU, CMU, NYU, Rochester, Brandeis and Emory combined (everyone in the league excluding Case).  Along the same lines, the top 6 teams in the UAA have only 9 losses combined (the top 3 teams have 0 losses combined), the bottom 2 teams have 15 losses combined.

[bouttime]

Even with the seemingly large gap between the top and bottom of the UAA at this point, I have no doubt that everyone in the conference will beat the crap out of each other and the conference champ will more than likely have at least 4 losses

[Hugenerd]

I think 4 losses for the conference champ is very unlikely.  Only twice in the history of the UAA (since 1987-88)has the conference champion had 4 league losses: WashU did it 1998-1999 (10-4) and CMU did in 2005-2006 (10-4). A 3 loss conference champion is more likely, as this has happened the last 2 years, but WashU looks like they could go 13-1 or 12-2 also.  It is even more unlikely because this year it appears as though there are 3 really bad teams, when in the past when there was a 10 win champ, there were 6 teams with very similar records (at least 7-7) and 2 teams that were at least reasonable (about 4-10), which meant a very small distribution between the top and bottom (6 wins seperating best from worst).  The last 2 years the seperation between worst and first has been 10 wins (11 win conference champ, 1 win worst team). This year it looks like it will be at least 10 because Case and Chicago have a combined 1 win so far this year.

Also, your wording is quite odd when you say "at least" 4 losses.  Never has the conference champ had more than 4 league losses (never).  When you think about it, there are 14 conference games for each time so how is that even realistic, to have more than 4 losses for the champion.  WashU is not going to lose to Emory or Case Western this season (sorry to break the news to the Eagle and Spartan fans), so IF they split with everyone else (Chicago, NYU, Rochester, Brandeis, and CMU), they will finish 9-5 (if this were to happen there would likely be other teams at 9-5 also).  The way Chicago is playing I dont think they will lose to them either, so that makes at least 10 wins in a worst case scenario.  My guess is that WashU will also sweep at least 2 of the other 4 teams as well, and possibly 3.  They will finish 12-2 or 13-1.

Here is another way of explaining why a 9 win conference champion is not likely.  Each team plays 14 conference games * 8 teams = 112 games.  Lets just say, as a very good approximation, the bottom 3 teams (Chicago, Case, and Emory) dont beat anyone but themselves, so they go a combined 6-36 in conference.  That means that those 3 teams are 30 games below 0.500.  Since there is a winner and loser in every game, there have to be 56 games won and 56 games lost each year.  Since the bottom 3 were 6-36, that means the top 5 would have to go 50-20.  If we divide by 5, that is an average record of 10-4 for the top 5 teams (with the only assumption that none of the top 5 teams lose to the bottom 3 teams).  There will likely be a few upsets of the top 5 teams by the bottom 3, but I dont think there will be that many. So even if the top 5 average 9 wins (that means 5 upsets by the bottom 3), you would expect that all 5 at the top teams wouldnt have identical records and at least one team would be a game or two above the average. So unless all 5 of the top teams are so even that they all have identical records, I dont think we are going to see a 10 win conference champion, let alone a 9 win conference champion, this season.

[BUBeaverFan]

WashU loses for the first time this season 82-75 at Elmhurst.  Bears shot poorly from behind the arc and were outrebounded 35-25.  The Bluejays shot 9-18 from 3 pt. range.  Bears go 6-1 away from home to start the season.  AT led the Bears with 18.

[Hugenerd]

WashU loses for the first time this season 82-75 at Elmhurst.  Bears shot poorly from behind the arc and were outrebounded 35-25.  The Bluejays shot 9-18 from 3 pt. range.  Bears go 6-1 away from home to start the season.  AT led the Bears with 18.

Bad day in general for the UAA, both ranked teams go down.  At least both losses were on the road.  The only remaining undefeated in the UAA: NYU.