MBB: University Athletic Association

[Hugenerd]

Caltech is not a good example upon which to base any argument, hugenerd. It's like trying to postulate a thesis about bobsledding by using the Jamaican national team as your case study.

I think that you've misinterpreted my argument. I didn't say that teams lost because of a lack of self-confidence. Teams usually lose because their opponents are simply better at playing basketball than they are. But in the rare instances in which a team loses several games over the course of a few weeks to opponents that have equal or less ability, the psychological blow can cause a lack of self-confidence that becomes self-perpetuating.

I think that the losing-begets-losing mental syndrome is universal; I don't think it's confined to underachievers such as the Maroons. I don't think that Caltech or Polytech or Bard or UMPI or Principia or Alma or any other other traditionally poor team is immune to it. The difference between those annual doormats and Chicago is that the annual doormats have an obvious ability deficiency that almost always renders their lack of self-confidence a moot point. Whether the Caltechs and UMPIs of the world believe that they are incapable of beating anybody, or spout "I think I can, I think I can" like the Little Engine That Could every time that they take the court, really makes no difference. The vast majority of basketball games are decided by the respective abilities of the two teams to play the sport of basketball, not by psychological considerations. Simply put, if your ability is nonexistent, all the self-confidence in the world wouldn't make any difference -- but your team most likely won't have that self-confidence, anyway.

I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if teams like Caltech and UMPI are psychologically fragile simply from being worn down by all of that losing, and that this plays into many of their (relatively) close losses on occasions in which they play teams that, while not epically bad like they are, are well south of the bar of mediocrity.

That's part of what makes games like Caltech vs. Polytech, or UMPI vs. Unity, so fascinating. They not only represent a sort of duel of the dregs in terms of basketball ability, but they're also a study in the capability of teams to muster self-confidence where none is usually present. Caltech now has an edge in that category, as opposed to other beaten-down annual doormats such as UMPI or Alma. To discover why, click on this link.

I agree with you.  I have taken psych courses.   I just felt your initial post was a bit vague and that it didnt apply universally. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Greg, you might want to revise that Jamaican Bobsled team comparison - I've read that they are getting pretty darned good!  Afterall, most of bobsledding in the power of the sprint to begin (after that you're mostly just a passenger), and those Jamaican sprinters are pretty good.

[Titan Q]

http://www.doubleazone.com/2009/01/university_of_chicago_mens_basketball_uaa_division_iii_winless_11_losses.php

[dblock]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/sports/ncaabasketball/09nyu.html?_r=1&ref=sports

i'm excited for friday night.

[Hugenerd]

CMU leads NYU 36-25 at the half in NYC.

[sac]

Brandeis and Rochester has been tight the whole way......1 posession most of the time it seems.

Brandeis 38 Rochester 37  16 min to go

http://people.brandeis.edu/~aslevin/livestats/xlive.htm

[magicman]

UR up 66-60 with 3:42  to go

Carnegie Mellon up 62-52 over NYU with  5:17 to go

[Hugenerd]

CMU up 16 with under 2 to play.

[Hugenerd]

CMU ends up blowing out NYU in NYC, 78-57.

[Hugenerd]

Rochester holds off Brandeis on the road, 73-69.

[dblock]

CMU ends up blowing out NYU in NYC, 78-57.

NYU played AWFUL. CMU played AWESOME.

CMU just deserved the game more.

[tommygun]

Wait a second, an undefeated in the non-conference NYU team comes into league play and gets smoked.  Will miracles never cease.  On a serious note, the good news for them is that the league doesn't seem to be as good as the last few years, giving them a chance to get eight or nine league wins (they're going to have to beat the Chicago's, Brandeis's and Rochesters of the world,) and maybe sneak into the NCAA's.  However, again their margin for error is going to be really small since apparently they are really going to have to turn it around to beat Carnegie Mellon in Pittsburgh or win either game against Wash U.  And again with the less than impressive non-conference schedule they choose to play year after year they aren't going to get any breaks I wouldn't think unless they win at least eight league games (and they probably need 9 to be safe.)

Final note on this, a question to dblock.   Do you think NYU would be better served to play a tougher non-conference schedule?  It seems that every year this happens even with those really talented teams, (with Boone, Falcon, DeCorso, etc.) they had a couple of years ago.  I guess I'm asking do they not have the talent to do better in the UAA or do they not get ready and then come out of the gate slow and as you put it play awful at the beginning of league play due to the fact that the traditionally play a really below par non-conference schedule with 90% of their games played at home.  As compared to a Wash U., Chicago, or even Carnegie Mellon, who seem to play a fair number of pretty good teams in their non-conference and seem to do much better come league play. 

With Wash U.  they may be so talented it doesn't matter who they play in the non-conference, but with Chicago I would say one of the more shocking things in d III basketball the last few years is that they've won the UAA back to back and they play a very competitive non-conference schedule (kind of biting them so far this year.)  It would also seem that where CMU has not perhaps been on par with Chicago and Wash U.  They have a league title under their belt in the last few seasons, and seem to pretty consistently exceed expectation for the last five or six years and they seem to play a pretty competitive non-conference schedule as well.  Brandeis same thing.  If nothing else they certainly seem to play a whose who of NE region teams.  It just seems this happens to NYU every year and I'd be curious to see what others think.

Next, Brandeis is quickly playing themselves out of the tournament.  It would seem that DeLuca hasn't returned to his pre-injury form.  So the supposed upgrade from Coppens to DeLuca (or at least breaking even,) hasn't been there.  To be fair I don't live in New England so I haven't seen them play but looking at the box scores it doesn't seem that they are getting the same production out of DeLuca that they got out of Coppens, and while they are not identical players I do believe that DeLuca was supposed to pick up most of the offensive load left by Coppens and this doesn't seem to have happened.

Also it seems they aren't as big as last season and don't seem to be very good defensively.  Again this is just an observation which people who see them play regurlarly may not agree with.  Anyway regardless of the reason they now have to play with a real sense of urgency with huge games against Carnegie Mellon and Amherst coming up.  If they lose those you are looking at a scenario where they would have to run the table, or win 11 out of 12 something like that to get in.  With 2 games against Wash U. and games at CMU and Rochester as well as a full slate of league games against the Chicagos and NYU's of the world who are always dangerous an 11-1 or 10-2 finish in league play doesn't seem too likely.  The Judges need to get it figured out right now or it's going to be too late.

And finally Rochester looks to have gotten OK again pretty quickly.  The loss of those big guys seems to have hurt them but not as much as anticipated.  They move to 8-2 with one of those losses being at what appears to be a  pretty good Carnegie team in a game they lead for 38 minutes.

They along with CMU seem to have filled the void left by Chicago and Brandeis and seem to have put themselves in good position for the third UAA bid (3 total, I think four is a real stretch this year.)  If they can keep winning. 

I know this is all based on 1 night and in fact half the league hasn't even played yet, but clearly Case, Chicago, and Emory's chances of getting an NCAA bid lie in winning the league, which seems highly unlikely even if Chicago can find a way to win some of those games I think a league championship is a long shot, and Wash U. is Wash U.  So the teams opening up tomorrow I think provide a little less intrigue. 

I think tonight and Sunday's games however have a lot to say about the league.  If CMU and Rochester are able to get wins on Sunday I think you are clearly beginning to see the league take some shape and the teams that have a shot at an NCAA bid and those that probably don't really beginning to take shape, even though it is really early.   We will at least begin to see the teams with some margin for error, (CMU with a win on Sunday could afford to drop a game or two to Chicago, or Brandeis, even Case or Emory for that matter,) and still be in pretty good shape, as long as they don't drop games to all of those teams.  Rochester with a win maybe not quite the same margin as CMU but certainly would be in pretty good shape even with a couple of losses to teams other than Wash U. While Brandeis and NYU would have to start thinking about winning a lot of games to have much of a shot.  Of course this becomes moot if NYU and Brandeis win and everything becomes jumbled again.  Big games on Sunday.

All right this got long.  Sorry about that.

[Ethelred the Unready]

TommyG:

You're right...that was a long.  But you raise some good points.  I wonder if the SOS for NYU is dictated more by geography and economics than anything else.  The travel demands of the UAA schedule are pretty intense for a D3 program and I'm sure university administration would prefer NYU play their OOC schedule close to home.  Same thing with UR.  Fortunately there are a number of good/decent programs in their general area (their other loss this year was by 9 to a top-15 undefeated Ithaca team).  All the UAA schools are pretty much in the same boat, but I think the teams Chicago, WashU and Brandeis have in their region are a lot stronger than those in NYU's and UR's, so short of traveling to New England or Virginia, I'm not sure who they could play that would increase their SOS in their area.

[Ethelred the Unready]

Rochester holds off Brandeis on the road, 73-69.

And with the #1 UR women beating #5 Brandeis in the first game of the night, UR men and women sweep Brandeis for the first time since 1997

[Hugenerd]

Wait a second, an undefeated in the non-conference NYU team comes into league play and gets smoked.  Will miracles never cease.  On a serious note, the good news for them is that the league doesn't seem to be as good as the last few years, giving them a chance to get eight or nine league wins (they're going to have to beat the Chicago's, Brandeis's and Rochesters of the world,) and maybe sneak into the NCAA's.  However, again their margin for error is going to be really small since apparently they are really going to have to turn it around to beat Carnegie Mellon in Pittsburgh or win either game against Wash U.  And again with the less than impressive non-conference schedule they choose to play year after year they aren't going to get any breaks I wouldn't think unless they win at least eight league games (and they probably need 9 to be safe.)

Final note on this, a question to dblock.   Do you think NYU would be better served to play a tougher non-conference schedule?  It seems that every year this happens even with those really talented teams, (with Boone, Falcon, DeCorso, etc.) they had a couple of years ago.  I guess I'm asking do they not have the talent to do better in the UAA or do they not get ready and then come out of the gate slow and as you put it play awful at the beginning of league play due to the fact that the traditionally play a really below par non-conference schedule with 90% of their games played at home.  As compared to a Wash U., Chicago, or even Carnegie Mellon, who seem to play a fair number of pretty good teams in their non-conference and seem to do much better come league play. 

NYU always schedules these cupcake schedules. For a more in depth discussion of this you can go back on this board a a year or two (we talked about this in detail at some point). This year, 9 of their 11 out of conference games are at home, although a lot of those teams do have winning records.  Regardless of what we say about NYU's schedule, it is defintely not nearly as filled with cupcakes as Amherst's schedule and they are ranked #5 in the country.

Next, Brandeis is quickly playing themselves out of the tournament.  It would seem that DeLuca hasn't returned to his pre-injury form.  So the supposed upgrade from Coppens to DeLuca (or at least breaking even,) hasn't been there.  To be fair I don't live in New England so I haven't seen them play but looking at the box scores it doesn't seem that they are getting the same production out of DeLuca that they got out of Coppens, and while they are not identical players I do believe that DeLuca was supposed to pick up most of the offensive load left by Coppens and this doesn't seem to have happened.

Depends which tournament you are talking about, their are doing a great job of playing themselves into the ECAC.  If they want to get into the NCAAs, at this point, its not looking to good.  They are either going to have to finish they year on a 13-1 (maybe 12-2) run or win the UAA. Neither seems likely.

And finally Rochester looks to have gotten OK again pretty quickly.  The loss of those big guys seems to have hurt them but not as much as anticipated.  They move to 8-2 with one of those losses being at what appears to be a  pretty good Carnegie team in a game they lead for 38 minutes.

Rochester is a lot better than people think.  Their only losses are to undefeated #12 Ithaca and #14 CMU.  Mike Neer always does a great job and it is near impossible to beat them at home in conference play in that snake pit they call a court.


I am looking forward to checking out tomorrows CMU-Brandeis game, first non-MIT game of the year for me. Hopefully CMU can continue to play well.