MBB: University Athletic Association

[tommygun]

As I said earlier I think the league is beginning to play itself into shape in terms of who has pool C chances and who doesn't.  I leave the number crunching upto everyone else, however, it has been my experience that if a UAA team plays a tough non-conference schedule then they are in with 19 wins and on the bubble with 18.  Less than that they need things to break their way. 

Therefore Wash and CMU are in very good shape, with Rochester still in very good shape.  In my opinion Brandeis and NYU are up against it.  Since I believe that Brandeis is the much better team they are in better shape, however, I think they only have a couple of losses to play with.  With 2 against Wash, a game at CMU, and a game at Rochester, I think their margin for error is very small.  They have to win a bunch.  That said with their tough non-conference schedule, weak NE region (although that isn't as important as it used to be,) maybe they could sneak in with 17 wins.  Even with that they don't have a lot of losses left and have to play very good basketball.

NYU is really up against it.  I think they have to win 19 due to their weak non-conference schedule and I think the chances of that are almost zero. 

Therefore barring something really strange happening, I think Wash and CMU are in.  Rochester is in good shape as long as they play well (i.e. they could lose four more league games, or there abouts.)  Brandeis needs to win a lot of games, which is possible since they're good, and NYU has to win a lot of games which is unlikely since it seems they are not nearly as good as the other teams on this list. 

[ephoops]

If I were a betting man I would say that Wash U, CMU and Rochester are in, Brandeis is close but no cigar and NYU is on the outside looking in.

[deiscanton]

My picks for this weekend on the men's side:

Friday, January 23, 2009

1.)  Wash U at Rochester-- This is the most interesting game of the four, because we don't know whether or not Rochester's #20 Mike Chmielowic will be playing tonight.  Mike Chmielowic went down with an injury in the Chase semifinal against St. John Fisher, and his status is still 50/50 for tonight's game.  Also, in that same game, Mike Labanowski of Rochester (#44) sustained a season-ending injury, so the Yellowjackets will be without Labanowski for the remainder of the season.

I will pick Wash U to win tonight, but Rochester has a shot if Chmielowic can play.

2.)  Chicago at Carnegie Mellon-- Carnegie Mellon, but Chicago will put up a fight and make it close.

3.)  NYU at Emory-- Emory

4.)  Brandeis at Case-- Brandeis 

Sunday, January 25, 2009

1.)  Wash U at Carnegie Mellon-- Carnegie Mellon blew out the Bears at Skibo last season, and this game will depend on how the Wash U at Rochester game goes on Friday.  Wash U has enough depth this season to be able to have some gas in the tank for Sunday's game, so my pick will be Wash U to win this one.

2.)  Chicago at Rochester-- Rochester, in another close affair.

3.)  Brandeis at Emory-- Brandeis

4.)  NYU at Case-- Case

[deiscanton]

Case is up 11 on Brandeis at the half, 31-20.

Brandeis is not playing well tonight-- Kevin Herring of Case is practically outscoring the Judges by himself, and Brandeis was held to 4 field goals in the first half.

Rochester's best 2 players are out tonight-- The leading scorer in the UAA coming into tonight is not playing today due to the injury that he sustained in the Chase Tournament.  Wash U is easily beating Rochester as a result.  Wash U had 8 3's in the first half alone against Rochester's zone defense.

The last time I checked, NYU and Carnegie Mellon were leading their games.

[Hugenerd]

CMU pulls one out at home against Chicago.  They led by double figures most of the second half but Chicago cut it to 2 with about a minute left but then fell short, as has become the trend this season.

[deiscanton]

Despite Kevin Herring's 33 points to lead Case (1/2 of Case's offense tonight was Kevin Herring-- Herring fell 2 pts short of tying his career high that was set last year against DePauw), Brandeis was able to rally back from a 16 pt. deficit in the first half and an 11 pt halftime deficit to take a 73-66 victory over the Spartans in Cleveland tonight.

Brandeis outscored Case 53 to 35 in the second half and free throw shooting played a key role in the outcome.   Since Brian Meehan became coach of the Judges, Brandeis has now gone 10-1 against Case with the only loss to Case coming in Horsburgh Gymnasium in Brian Meehan's first season as Brandeis coach.

[Marty Peretz]

Just sitting here waiting for Sager to acknowledge his woeful pre-season predictions...

I don't care if Rochester had 0 starters. They still had a home court advantage on a Friday night and Mike Neer pacing the sidelines; this was an impressive Wash.U. win. Had Brandeis lost to Case (as it appeared would be the case for much of the evening), Wash.U. could have all but wrapped up the league tonight. A 30 point win at Rochester, no matter the circumstances, serves as a statement victory and while every night is tough in the UAA, it has become clear that Wash.U. is definitively the team to beat in the UAA. Deis is very good and is beginning to hit its stride, but the Judges lost to Rochester. Even if Wash.U. were to lose two of its next 3 (@ Carnegie, @Deis, @ NYU), I still think they'd run away with the conference. Once this current 4 game stretch ends, the Bears play only 2 road games: Emory and Case. WU has lost at home just once in conference play in the last 3 seasons. For WU to lose the conference lead, Deis would effectively have to sweep both meetings and I just don't see that happening.

Wash.U. is a legitimate 10 deep, with one conceivably able to make the case that they go 12 deep.

[Hugenerd]

Just sitting here waiting for Sager to acknowledge his woeful pre-season predictions...

I don't care if Rochester had 0 starters. They still had a home court advantage on a Friday night and Mike Neer pacing the sidelines; this was an impressive Wash.U. win. Had Brandeis lost to Case (as it appeared would be the case for much of the evening), Wash.U. could have all but wrapped up the league tonight. A 30 point win at Rochester, no matter the circumstances, serves as a statement victory and while every night is tough in the UAA, it has become clear that Wash.U. is definitively the team to beat in the UAA. Deis is very good and is beginning to hit its stride, but the Judges lost to Rochester. Even if Wash.U. were to lose two of its next 3 (@ Carnegie, @Deis, @ NYU), I still think they'd run away with the conference. Once this current 4 game stretch ends, the Bears play only 2 road games: Emory and Case. WU has lost at home just once in conference play in the last 3 seasons. For WU to lose the conference lead, Deis would effectively have to sweep both meetings and I just don't see that happening.

Wash.U. is a legitimate 10 deep, with one conceivably able to make the case that they go 12 deep.

How would have Brandeis' loss wrapped up the title?  If CMU beats WashU on Sunday, CMU would tie WashU for first and hold the tiebreaker (as of that point).

Also, whats with all the animosity, I think WashU has gotten all the credit they deserve.  They were ranked #1 for most of the year until they lost to Elmhurst and they are now #3.  Seems like people acknowledge them as being good.

As for Rochester, they better hope to get someone back soon, if they continue to play like they did tonight they arent going to have any chance at the NCAAs.

[tommygun]

As far as the UAA and pool C's go I think tonight is a perfect indication why the teams that have a reduced margin for error are going to have a tough time getting in.  Brandeis overcomes a big deficit to beat a suddenly frisky Case team and NYU survives by 2 at Emory.  If either of these teams had lost I think it would've been curtains for their NCAA chances.  And these wins are against the two teams at the bottom of the league (along with Chicago.)  With two left against Wash, a game at CMU, and a game at Rochester left along with the fact they have to play each other it just seems like it is going to be really hard for them to win enough games.  At this point I certainly don't think the game at Case on Sunday is any gimme for NYU.  I also don't think the games against Chicago are gimme's for these teams (I believe Chicago has done quite well against Brandeis in recent years.)  So again it seems like a long road for these teams.

As for Rochester I agree they better get Chmielowic back in a hurry.  All of the sudden Sunday becomes a big game for Rochester.  If they lose that one they will very quickly be using up that margin of error I was talking about earlier.  With two left against Wash, and a game against CMU, that game against Brandeis could loom large if Rochester slips up once or twice in the game on Sunday or the next couple of weekends against Case and Emory.

As for CMU they dodge a bullet tonight and pull out what appears to have been a relatively ugly win against Chicago.  However, win they did and they remain in really good shape unless they collapse and start losing to all of the good teams and some of the bottom teams as well. 

Obviously Wash seems to be the class of the league and, as obviously, are a mortal lock for a pool C if something unforseen happens and they don't win the league.

[Marty Peretz]

Brandeis is very good and will finish strong. I think that if they go 8-2 they're in and I think they can do that. 7-3 still gives them a good shot, particularly if they can beat WU next Friday at home. With wins over Amherst and Wash.U., I think the committee would forget about their early season struggles, especially with the northeast being a bit down this year.

CMU is a mystery to me. They always play well against Wash.U., so my limited exposure to them has always impressed me. Their tough slashing guards will give Wash.U. a great game tomorrow, but if the Bears can pull it out, you can pretty much crown WU league champs. Hugenerd, I'm sorry if that sounds arrogant; I don't mean to be a homer. But think about it, WU has lost 1 home game in 3 years. If they open 5-0 in the league with wins on the road at Rochester and Carnegie, it's going to be damn near impossible for anyone to overcome that lead in the standings.

From all I've heard and read, NYU is not an impressive basketball team this year. I dont really consider them a part of the UAA race.

[Ethelred the Unready]

Just sitting here waiting for Sager to acknowledge his woeful pre-season predictions...

I don't care if Rochester had 0 starters. They still had a home court advantage on a Friday night and Mike Neer pacing the sidelines; this was an impressive Wash.U. win. Had Brandeis lost to Case (as it appeared would be the case for much of the evening), Wash.U. could have all but wrapped up the league tonight. A 30 point win at Rochester, no matter the circumstances, serves as a statement victory and while every night is tough in the UAA, it has become clear that Wash.U. is definitively the team to beat in the UAA. Deis is very good and is beginning to hit its stride, but the Judges lost to Rochester. Even if Wash.U. were to lose two of its next 3 (@ Carnegie, @Deis, @ NYU), I still think they'd run away with the conference. Once this current 4 game stretch ends, the Bears play only 2 road games: Emory and Case. WU has lost at home just once in conference play in the last 3 seasons. For WU to lose the conference lead, Deis would effectively have to sweep both meetings and I just don't see that happening.

Wash.U. is a legitimate 10 deep, with one conceivably able to make the case that they go 12 deep.

So, in your considered, "non-homer" opinion, replacing 2 two guys that average 31 minutes a game, 30+ points a game, each with 34 3 pointers, in an offesnse that is run through those particular players, with two guys who have averaged 10 minutes and combine for 5 points, had no bearing on Wash U's win?  I would suggest that it did.  Not that the ultimate outcome would have been different regarding W/L.  Wash U played a great game and has a lot of weapons.  But I don't believe the game would have been a 30 point game with the Mike's playing.  And 30 point losses happen.  I remember Wash U getting spanked last year by CMU and it didn't seem to have an adverse effect on their season.

[Marty Peretz]

Fair enough, but no one on the Wash.U. roster played more than 22 minutes and the result was still lopsided. If you want to make the argument that Rochester's studs would have made the difference and you want to make that argument based on numbers, that's fine. But in doing so, you'd also have to factor in what Thompson, Wallis and Nading would do if they played normal minutes. Look, I absolutely do not think Wash.U. beats Rochester by 30 if Rochester has both those guys in the line-up. However, I do think a 30 point road win on a Friday night serves as emphatic proof that Wash.U., at least right now, is the UAA's best team. That may have been obvious to board users regardless of last night's outcome, but based on various comments from users of this forum earlier in the year and in the pre-season, I'm fairly not a lot of people were anticipating the league race unfolding this way. I don't mean to be pugnacious, but I felt the need to call out Sager (albeit in a friendly manner) for his pre-season predictions. There are others out there who proclaimed that the loss of Ruths would render WU less effective and that simply hasn't happened.

[Hugenerd]

WashU at CMU will be webcast tomorrow, game is at 12:00 (noon):

http://www.cmu.edu/athletics/video/webcast.html

[Gregory Sager]

Just sitting here waiting for Sager to acknowledge his woeful pre-season predictions...

What, the woeful preseason prediction that Chicago would be competitive? Sure, I acknowledge that. I acknowledged it a long time ago. Heck, why don't you ask each of the Top 25 pollsters that combined to put the Maroons in the #22 slot in the d3hoops.com preseason poll for their mea culpas as well?

Come to think of it, I don't remember you saying anything to the contrary. As a matter of fact, this is what you wrote in the off-season about the Maroons:

As for next year, NYU will be much improved, Rochester will be in a definitive rebuilding year, Chicago will again be solid, I believe Carnegie is losing a lot, Case might grab a couple league wins, Emory should be decent, but Brandeis and Wash.U. will again be the cream of the crop. I see those two teams battling for the title with U of C and NYU finishing in a relatively distant 3rd and 4th, respectively.

You didn't exactly condemn Chicago to the ash heap, either. You said that the Maroons "will again be solid" and predicted that they'd finish third in the UAA. And this was my "woeful prediction":

I think that you're seriously underestimating Chicago, Marty. Yes, the Maroons lose Nate Hainje, but they bring back both Matt Corning and Jake Pancratz -- and Adam Machones looks poised for a breakout 2008-09 campaign, based upon the way that he ended last season. If Mike McGrath can get more consistent play out of his big men next season, the Maroons have a puncher's chance to defend their UAA title.

As you can see by the words "if" and "puncher's chance", my admittedly woeful prediction didn't exactly involve me climbing out on a limb and predicting that Chicago was going to win the league.

I don't mean to be pugnacious, but I felt the need to call out Sager (albeit in a friendly manner) for his pre-season predictions. There are others out there who proclaimed that the loss of Ruths would render WU less effective and that simply hasn't happened.

I wasn't one of them. I never said a word about Ruths. Once again, your selective memory has failed you, Marty. In fact, this is what I said about the Bears:

Wash U is the clear favorite to win the league, and I don't see how that can be argued against by anybody.

Here's a tip, Marty: The UAA room's archives are easily accessed if you're willing to take the time and go back through them. You might want to try it the next time that you decide to "call out Sager", or anybody else.

[Marty Peretz]

WU cruises at Carnegie, 90-70. AT goes for 30 on 12-20 shooting, 6-11 from beyond the arch. Will the Bears regain the top spot in the national poll?

Deis also wins easily, setting up a crucial showdown on Friday in Waltham. If WU wins, they are really in the drivers seat for the league championship, but a Judges victory sets up a compelling homestretch in the UAA and further clarifies the fact that this really is a two team race.