MBB: University Athletic Association

[Greek Tragedy]

I think Oshkosh got in with 10 losses a few years ago, just saying.

[deiscanton]

Rochester lost today. They were #2 ranked team in Region 3. Are they safe?

Final scores in men:

Emory 76, Rochester 74

Case Western Reserve 92, Carnegie Mellon 83

In other news, we just had 2 teams whose bubbles will be popping now, as Skidmore sent RPI to the Pool C table in the Liberty League semifinals in Region 3 (Rochester's region) and Keene State won the Little East AQ over UMass-Dartmouth in OT in Region 2. (Brandeis's region).

I do not know about Rochester, but whatever chances Brandeis may have had are probably over now.  Never mind that there seems to be a consensus now from people that I have talked to that the DIII Men's Basketball Committee made a gross mistake in selecting UW-Oshkosh for a Pool C in the 2016-17 season (.630 winning pct (17-10), SOS over .600, 5-7 vs RRO) and that a minimum .667 winning percentage should be the absolute floor for teams to even be considered for Pool C selection-- contrary to then national chair Kevin van der Streek's comments at the time of the pick of Oshkosh.

I knew that the mistake made in the 2016-17 season was the slavish devotion to a .03 difference in SOS being equivalent to 2 wins in the winning pct, so that formula no longer gets followed. 

[deiscanton]

They shouldn't be.  They have 8 losses.  You can argue about SOS all you want, 8 losses are 8 losses.  At some point losses have to count for something.

But Rochester is still at a .680 winning percentage at 17-8, which is above the historical .667 WP "floor" to be considered for Pool C selection.  Rochester also lost to an RRO, the UAA AQ, at the AQ's home gym today.

Further, RPI, which came in at #3 in Region 3 (Rochester is at #2 in Region 3), also lost today to unranked Skidmore in the Liberty League semifinals, so Rochester will probably remain ahead of RPI in the Region 3 rankings when the selections take place.

There seems to be a consensus now that the UW-Oshkosh pick in the 2016-17 season (17-10, winning pct .630, SOS .601, 5-7 v RRO, lost in WIAC title game to River Falls) was a major error by the DIII Men's Basketball Committee at that time.  There was a formula at that time in DIII men's hoop that equated a .03 difference in SOS to 2 adjusted wins in winning pct., which was dropped after the Oshkosh selection. 

[deiscanton]

UAA Men's Basketball Standings coming into Sunday--

1.)  Emory (UAA AQ)-- 12-2 in UAA, 19-5 overall
2.)  Case Western Reserve-- 8-5 in UAA, 18-6 overall.
T-3.)  Wash U-- 8-6 in the UAA, 18-7 overall.
T-3.)  Rochester-- 8-6 in the UAA, 17-8 overall.
5.)  Brandeis-- 5-7 in the UAA, 14-9 overall (1 game left to play).
6.)  Chicago-- 5-9 in the UAA, 10-15 overall.
7.)  NYU-- 4-9 in the UAA, 14-10 overall
8.)  Carnegie Mellon-- 4-10 in the UAA, 11-13 overall.

[deiscanton]

I got a response from Professor Drew Pasteur through his twitter handle to your question:

Rochester lost today. They were #2 ranked team in Region 3. Are they safe?

Drew Pasteur says that Rochester is an interesting case for the bubble, but that the Yellowjackets are on the good side of the bubble and will get in.

[deiscanton]

I got a response from Professor Drew Pasteur through his twitter handle to your question:

Rochester lost today. They were #2 ranked team in Region 3. Are they safe?

Drew Pasteur says that Rochester is an interesting case for the bubble, but that the Yellowjackets are on the good side of the bubble and will get in.

However, since I last posted this, Prof. Pasteur has done another 2000 sim run which he just posted a little over a 1/2 hour ago at 4:50 PM Eastern-- Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022.

Most recent bracketology analysis by Prof. Pasteur has both Brandeis and Rochester as "bubble-out" with Brandeis currently at a 49% chance at a Pool C bid and Rochester at a 37% chance at a Pool C bid.

Simulation run confirms the bid thieves from the Little East (Keene State won the AQ) and the Liberty League (winner of LL title game between Skidmore and winner of semifinal between Ithaca and Vassar)--

RPI now at "strong contender" status at 84% chance at a Pool C-- lost in today's LL semifinals.

UMass-Dartmouth is a Pool C lock at 100%.

UAA Pool C teams that should get in, according to Prof. Pasteur's bracketology--

1.)    Wash U-- 99% chance at a Pool C-- Pool C lock.
2.)    Case Western Reserve-- 90% chance at a Pool C-- "strong contender".

fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

[deiscanton]

Latest run by Drew Pasteur's NCAA D3 Men's Bracketology with 2000 sims at 10:06 PM Eastern Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022--

Overnight, no bid thief came out of the NWC, as favored team Whitworth easily won the conference AQ from that league, preventing Whitman from popping someone's bubble.

Elmhurst also defeated North Central to win the CCIW AQ and prevented a bid thief from coming out of that league, preventing North Central from popping someone's bubble.

So, my understanding is that with 4 potential bid thief games left to play today, only the 2 bid thieves from yesterday afternoon out of the Liberty League (Region 3-- winner of Skidmore vs Vassar) and Little East (Region 2-- Keene State) currently exist for this year's tournament.

The remaining opportunities for bid thieves to emerge today, according to Prof. Pasteur:

1.)  MACC: #1 Eastern (97% C if needed) vs #2 Hood (15% C)
2.)  GNAC: #1 St. Joe's CT (100% C if needed) vs #2 Albertus Magnus (0% C)
3.)  ODAC: #1 Randolph-Macon (100% C if needed) vs #3 Virginia Wesleyan (0% C)
4.)  MIAC: #1 St. John's (84% C if needed) vs #6 MacAlester (0% C).

As a result, here are the latest Pool C chances of UAA teams needing them, according to Drew Pasteur:

1.)  Wash U-- 100% C (C#8 currently on Pasteur's bracketology)-- Lock

2.)  Case Western Reserve 97% C (C#12)-- "Strong contender"

3.)  Rochester-- 62% C (C#17)-- "Bubble in"

4.)  Brandeis-- 49% C (C#19)-- "Bubble in"

fantastic50.net/d3h_men.html

[deiscanton]

Just a comment on a "bid thief' coming out of the UAA--

Since the UAA does not have a conference tournament, and awards its AQ to the regular season champion-- the best team that schedules a double round robin and completes the best win/loss percentage through its 14 UAA games (barring extraordinary circumstances that force a cancellation of a UAA game that cannot be made up), in my opinion, I don't think that this scenario of a UAA team stealing someone else's Pool C bid would ever occur in the UAA.

So, Rochester is a bubble team because it lost to Emory yesterday, and if it beat Emory yesterday, their Pool C chances would have increased, but Emory had already clinched the AQ out of the UAA win or lose, so Rochester was already a Pool C candidate.  Therefore, the battle is between 2 teams vying for a Pool C bid-- so the term "bid thief" would not apply-- I use that term "bid thief" to refer to a team with virtually no chance at a Pool C winning the AQ by beating a Pool C lock in the semifinals or championship game of a conference tournament.

[deiscanton]

Okay, I will be at Auerbach Arena today to watch NYU at Brandeis-- and I am rooting for a Brandeis win today so that I can keep an interesting debate/discussion going tonight.

If NYU wins today, I promise not to mention the Oshkosh 2016-17 season tonight.... (Interestingly enough, Pat Juckem coached the Oshkosh Titans that season.)

To quote former NYU women's basketball coach and current Associate Athletic Director Janice Quinn as she stated back over 20 years ago:  "We still have the opportunity when the ball goes up to win. That's non-political.  That's non-bureaucratic.  That's up to us."--

Violet Behavior by Alisa Solomon-- January 30, 2001-- The Village Voice

villagevoice.com/2001/01/30/violet-behavior

[WUPHF]

An incredible game in St. Louis yesterday with a powerful ending.

The game is worth watching but if you do not want to take the time, just watch the ending or the video from local sports journalist Frank Cusumano (second link).

Lot's of respect to Chicago who understood the moment and handled it like gentlemen.

https://portal.stretchinternet.com/wustl/portal.htm?eventId=685977&streamType=video

https://twitter.com/Frank_Cusumano/status/1497693689631711236?s=20&t=7E_gWGXHpX6XEAZX0qxlxQ

By the way, the extent to which freshmen impacted the outcome of this game cannot be overstated.  The UAA is going to look so incredibly different as the league will graduate a ton of seniors, but the Bears are deep.  Washington University should be a favorite for the title yet again next season.

[Gregory Sager]

It was great that Frank Cusumano got that out into social media to help draw some attention to that moving moment, and perhaps to the larger story of Justin Hardy in general.

But, man, the real story in terms of video was on the Wash U broadcast. Jay Murry did a great job on the call as he struggled to keep it together. I would've been a mess if I had been the PBP broadcaster calling that moment. Heck, I was in tears watching it, and I'm just a casual observer without the long-term emotional investment in Justin's story that the Wash U people have.

Stay strong, Justin.

[jaybird44]

Thank you Greg for the compliment.  You know as well as I do that when you work in athletics at a university for many years, that teams become family to you, and student-athletes are like your nieces and nephews.  So, when someone in the family is fighting for his or her life, it becomes very emotional.

I was given word about a half-hour before the game that Justin Hardy would be dressed out for Senior Day, but wouldn't play.  I noticed by watching him closely on the court in the last three weeks that his condition had gotten worse; and that was underscored by the team keeping Justin at home while his teammates went on the road and knowing that he wouldn't be able to step on the court on Senior Day.  So, the broadcast became a bit more emotionally charged than I had hoped, even before the start of the game.

Play-by-play announcers are taught to be rather stoic and detached in emotional situations, mainly to make sure what you say is not muddled to the point where you can't be understood by listeners/viewers.  I struggled for sure when I saw Justin enter the game and run gingerly into the frontcourt after his inbound pass, and even further after Chicago's Bryce Hopkins let Justin step by him for the final points of the game.  But, when I saw U. of Chicago players come over at the final buzzer to give Justin hugs, I had to let some of the emotion out to avoid losing it altogether...and, to give the viewers a sense of what fans and teams were feeling at that moment.

I wondered after the game if I should've been more detached, but an email and a tweet from two people...a former administrator and a parent of a former men's basketball player...let me know that I made the right decision to allow some emotion to come into my description of the very end of that game yesterday.

Yes, prayers are needed for Justin and much appreciated.  He is having a rough go of it, in his battle with Stage 4 stomach cancer.

#HardyStrong

[Stretch4]

The call from Jay Murry on the Washington U broadcast is as genuine and heartfelt as it gets. An absolute must watch that brought this grown man to tears.  Thank you for capturing the moment perfectly and for further illustrating the courageousness and fight of this amazing young man.  Prayers for Justin and his family. 

[Gregory Sager]

Best part: "Justin Hardy, every time that I see him he always refers to me as 'Mr. Murry,' and ... big smile on his face, and asks me how I'm doing and how's the family, and I say, 'Well, we're fine, Justin, what about you?' and he says, 'Well, I'm living my best life.' He's able to dictate how he wants to live what's left of his life. We hope it's, you know, forty or fifty more years or longer."

#truerwordswereneverspoken

[ADL70]

By Gosh it's Spartan v Spartan as CWRU faces Dubuque in Oshkosh