MBB: University Athletic Association

[deiscanton]

After 5 games in the UAA, we have:

1.)  Emory in sole possession of first place at 4-1 in the UAA.

2.)  A group of 4 teams 1 game back of Emory at 3-2 (Rochester, Brandeis, Wash U, Carnegie Mellon)

3.)  Case Western Reserve Univ is 2 games back of Emory in the standings.

4.)  NYU and UChicago are tied in last place at 1-4 in the UAA, and both teams winless in UAA games played on their home courts this season so far.

[deiscanton]

Reviewing the results from today

Sunday, January 22, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Rochester at NYU

NYU 83, Rochester 77

NYU has a 71% chance to win this game, and is a -6.0 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 71 possessions per team

O/U total is 160.5

2.)  Emory at Brandeis

Brandeis 74, Emory 75

Brandeis has a 47% chance to win this game, and is a +1 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 76 possessions per team.

O/U total is 149.5

3.)  UChicago at CWRU

Case Western Reserve 77, UChicago 64

CWRU has an 87% chance to win this game, and is a -12.5 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 68 possessions per team

O/U total is 140.5

4.)  Wash U at Carnegie Melllon

Carnegie Mellon 69, Wash U 70

Carnegie Mellon has a 48% chance to win this game, and is a +0.5 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 72 possessions per team

O/U total is 139.0

Results from today-- Home team listed first

1.)  NYU 55, Rochester 72-- Road underdog won outright

Rochester had 78 possessions in the win-- Game played at a quicker pace than predicted.

Total is 127-- Under won that one.

2.)  Brandeis 71, Emory 73 (OT)-- Road team won and covered the spread.

Emory had 76 possessions in the win-- 68 of those were in regulation-- Game played at a slower pace than predicted.

Total is 144-- Under won that one.

3.)  CWRU 77, UChicago 85-- Road underdog won outright.

UChicago had approx 75 possessions in the win-- Game played at a quicker pace than predicted.

Total is 162-- Over won that one.

4.)  Carnegie Mellon 71, Wash U 58-- Home underdog won outright.

Carnegie Mellon had approx 73 possessions in the win-- Game pace played as predicted.

Total is 129-- Under won that one

[deiscanton]

Here is an update on the UAA standings through Bob Quillman's home loss system as of January 23, 2023.

First, here were the standings on the point system going into Games 4 and 5 of the home/away round robin.

Bob Quillman uses a handy +1 for a road win, -1 for a home loss system to evaluate the CCIW before all the games have been played.  Seems like that would be really helpful for the UAA right now, too:

Brandeis  +1
CMU  +1
NYU  +1
CWRU  0
WashU  0
Rochester  0
Emory  -1
Chicago  -2

Here are the standngs as reflected by the Quillman system as of Monday, January 23, 2023-- (+1 for a road win, -1 for a home loss, 0 for any other scenario)

Emory +1
Rochester +1
Carnegie Mellon +1
Wash U  0
Brandeis  0
CWRU  -1
NYU   -1
UChicago   -1

[deiscanton]

Here is a health update from me--

I started my 5 day course of Paxlovid Tuesday evening and ended it Sunday morning.

This weekend, I watched the entire Brandeis home weekend vs Rochester and Emory on livestream.

I am feeling much better than I was last Monday when I first got my positive antigen test for COVID.   Last Tuesday, I took a PCR test from the LabCorp Pixel home collection system that I had ordered from LabCorp on Demand just a few hours before I got a positive result on my antigen test.   I had FedEx pick up my sample from my apartment early Tuesday afternoon, and the PCR test confirmed my case of COVID for the Massachusetts records.  As a result, I cannot take another PCR test again until about April 17, 2023 at the earliest.

I completed my five days of isolation as of Saturday morning, and I can now go outside my apartment as long as I wear my N95 mask on at all times inside indoor public places.

The Paxlovid has worked in that it allowed my body to successfully reduce my viral load to the point that as of this morning, January 23, I got my first negative result on an antigen test since I developed COVID.  I will have to repeat the test again Wednesday morning, and then, assuming that is negative, I will have to monitor myself this week for any signs of a rebound.  If there is a COVID rebound, it would happen before next Monday., since I finished my Paxlovid treatment course yesterday.

Hopefully, I will be able to attend the Brandeis home games in person this weekend-- this Sunday will be the first Brandeis Alumni Basketball Day on campus since before the pandemic.

To summarize, it looks like I am going to recover from my first bout with COVID.  Thanks for your get well wishes.  I appreciated it.

[deiscanton]

A question came up during the overtime of the Brandeis vs Emory game yesterday about the use of courtside video replay.

This is covered by the UAA Basketball Code of Conduct's Section 4-- Conduct of Sport.  Rule 4.5  Use of Courtside Video Replay.   The rule states that "the host institution shall provide the necessary equipment and access (game webcast with replay capability and a laptop computer capable of viewing the game webcast) at courtside to allow officials to use courtside video replay as permitted by the NCAA Basketball Rules.  The host institution shall notify the officials about the availablity of courtside video replay capability prior to the start of the game."

uaasports.info/information/Basketball.pdf

[Greek Tragedy]

I take it there was a video replay issue at the game? A play that needed to be reviewed but no video replay available?

[deiscanton]

I take it there was a video replay issue at the game? A play that needed to be reviewed but no video replay available?

The play at issue happened with 27 seconds left in the overtime and Emory up 73-71.  Emory freshman Benjamin Pearce had gotten a defensive rebound just 19 seconds before,at 46 seconds left in the overtime, and started a play set.  Brandeis has this still archived on the Basketball Live Stream at brandeisjudges.com/information/streaming   If you watch this, start the replay feed at the time code of 2 hours 10 min.    This archived stream has yesterday's Emory at Brandeis doubleheader, and it should be up until this upcoming Friday, Jan. 27, 2023. 

The call at issue in this case is a turnover called on Emory freshman Benjamin Pearce, with Brandeis taking possession.  Emory head coach Jason Zimmerman thought that the ball was last touched by Brandeis freshman Ethan Edwards, and not by Benjamin Pearce.   Zimmerman called for a video review of the play, and the Brandeis crowd, seeing that Coach Zimmerman was walking over to mid-court, wanted the refs to "T" Zimmerman up.  Needless to say, the Brandeis crowd was riled up at the prospect of the call going to video review.

The question on the replay was:  Did a great defensive maneuver by Ethan Edwards cause Benjamin Pearce to throw the ball out of bounds, with Brandeis gaining possession, or did Ethan Edwards touch the ball last and Emory maintains possession as a result?"

Brandeis has a new student crew in Josh Hertz-- the WBRS FM General Manager, and Asher Kaplan, a Brandeis baseball pitcher, now doing play by play and color commentary respectively, and this was their first full weekend doing Brandeis basketball games together.   Asher Kaplan had previously done play by play by himself for the NYU at Brandeis doubleheader back on January 7. 

The student commentators protested that "this is Division III basketball.  We don't have [multiple angle camera] technology here for the video replay. Does Coach Zimmerman even understand this?"  The referees looked at the game webcast at courtside, which is the only angle that the play in question had been recorded.  The refs had the same angle that I have on the on-demand feed, which is that the play is being recorded from the opposite side of the court (the bleacher side) from the benches, where the play took place.

Upon further review, the turnover call on Benjamin Pearce stood, and Brandeis got possession with 27 seconds left in OT.

Ultimately, it did not matter, as Brandeis went 0-8 from the field, 0-4 from 3 pt range, 0-0 from the charity stripe in the OT period, and Emory scored the only 2 points in the overtime period to win the game, 73-71, in overtime.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Some conferences are mandating video replay (I think the ASC is working towards that, if not mandating it), but for the most part, it's up to the host institution to decide if they've got the capability of providing it and letting the refs know.

[deiscanton]

Just for fun....

Here are the comparisons of the UAA teams as to where they were ranked at the Week 5 D3Hoops.com Top 25 poll, which is the poll that was released the Monday before UAA play started this season, and where they are ranked as of right now, in the Week 8 D3Hoops.com Top 25 poll.

1.)  Rochester

Week 5-- #5 in the poll-- 518 points
Week 8-- #11 in the poll-- 335 points.

Rochester lost 183 points-- approx 35.3% of total value in points from Week 5

2.)  Emory

Week #5-- #22 in the poll-- 107 points
Week #8-- #16 in the poll-- 259 points

Emory gained 152 points.  Part of the reason why Emory gained points is that the Eagles have still not lost on the road all season.

3.)  Case Western Reserve University

Week #5-- #9 in the poll-- 364 points
Week #8-- Out of Top 25 entirely-- RV-- 54 points

CWRU lost 310 points, or 85.2% of total value.

4.)  New York University

Week #5-- #18 in the poll-- 175 points
Week #8-- Not ranked

NYU lost all 175 points, or 100% of total value.  All NYU still has left from Week 5 is the Cregger Invitational Winners' Trophy.

5.)  Washington University

Week #5-- RV-- 7 points
Week #8-- RV-- 3 points

Wash U lost 4 points, or 57,2% of total value.

(Note:  From Week 5 to Week 7, Wash U gained 94 points and was #22 in Week 7 with 101 pts.  After going 0-2 in their first 2 UAA road games of the season, Wash U lost 98 points and dropped out of the top 25 after appearing there for 1 week.  The 4 point loss is a net loss.)

6.)  Carnegie Mellon University

Week #5-- Not ranked
Week #8-- RV-- 5 points

CMU gained 5 points.

[deiscanton]

UAA Men's Basketball Athlete of the Week-- January 24, 2023--

Toby Harris, Brandeis

[deiscanton]

Friday, January 27, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Wash U at Rochester

Rochester 73, Wash U 67

Rochester has a 71% chance to win this game, and is a -6.0 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team

O/U total is 140.0

2.)  UChicago at Emory

Emory 78, UChicago 64

Emory has a 91% chance to win this game, and is a -14.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team.

O/U total is 142.0

3.)  CWRU at Brandeis

Brandeis 77, CWRU 73

Brandeis has a 62% chance to win this game, and is a -3.5 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 71 possessions per team

O/U total is 149.5

4.)  Carnegie Mellon at NYU

NYU 82, Carnegie Mellon 72

NYU has an 81% chance to win this game, and is a -9.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 72 possessions per team

O/U total is 143.5

[deiscanton]

As we start tonight's action, I am sending my get well wishes today to Brandeis Sports Information Director Adam Levin, who tested positive for COVID on Monday after almost 3 years of successfully avoiding catching the disease.

On Wednesday, I had my second successful negative antigen test in a 48 hour period since testing positive for COVID back on Monday, January 16.  I have successfully recovered from my initial bout with COVID and I am planning to attend both Brandeis doubleheaders at Auerbach Arena in Waltham, MA in person this weekend.

Sunday's Brandeis vs Carnegie Mellon will be the first Alumni/Family Basketball Day on the Brandeis campus since the 2019-20 season.  I am looking forward to gathering together with my fellow alumni and see the exciting things that the Brandeis Alumni Association has planned for this day. 

Also, due to the Omicron wave last year, this will be the first Brandeis men's basketball home weekend vs CWRU and Carnegie Mellon since the 2019-20 season.   Last year's CWRU at Brandeis game was cancelled and not made up, and the CMU at Brandeis game was moved to Wiegand Gym at Carnegie Mellon in Pittsburgh and was played there as a mid-week make up game during the Brandeis February break.

The Brandeis women did host CWRU and Carnegie Mellon last year as a women's only basketball home weekend, played before a closed gym with a limited number of spectators from the immediate on-campus Brandeis community allowed to attend.

[y_jack_lok]

^^^ Glad you have recovered from COVID.

[WUPHF]

Last weekend of the first half of the season. 

Emory leads at 4-1 with four other teams at 3-2 including Rochester, Carngie Mellon, Case Western Reserve and Brandeis.

I predict that the margin of error is so slim that we will lose a team or two from the championship chase by Sunday late afternoon.

[deiscanton]

Reviewing the action from tonight

Friday, January 27, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Wash U at Rochester

Rochester 73, Wash U 67

Rochester has a 71% chance to win this game, and is a -6.0 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team

O/U total is 140.0

2.)  UChicago at Emory

Emory 78, UChicago 64

Emory has a 91% chance to win this game, and is a -14.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team.

O/U total is 142.0

3.)  CWRU at Brandeis

Brandeis 77, CWRU 73

Brandeis has a 62% chance to win this game, and is a -3.5 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 71 possessions per team

O/U total is 149.5

4.)  Carnegie Mellon at NYU

NYU 82, Carnegie Mellon 72

NYU has an 81% chance to win this game, and is a -9.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 72 possessions per team

O/U total is 143.5

Here are the actual final scores for tonight-- Home team listed first

1.) Rochester 47, Wash U 63-- Road underdog wins outright.

Wash U had 64 possessions in the win--Game tempo a little slower than predicted.

Game total was 110-- Under wins that one

2.)  Emory 79, UChicago 75 (OT)-- Road underdog covers the spread

Emory had 77 possessions in the win, with 69 of those possessions being in regulation-- Game tempo a little slower than predicted.

Game total is 154-- Over wins that one.

3.)  Brandeis 71, CWRU 91-- Road underdog wins outright.

CWRU had 62 possessions in the win, but shut ligths out with a 61/68/67 shooting split for the game, making 15 3's in the process.

Game total is 162-- Over wins that one.

4.)  NYU 79, Carnegie Mellon 55--- Home favorite covers the spread.

NYU had 71 possessions in the win-- Game tempo was as predicted.

Game total is 134-- Under wins that one.