MBB: University Athletic Association

[deiscanton]

  UAA Game update-- Saturday January 11, 2025

Wash U men's basketball team website has just announced that the men's basketball game vs UChicago will not be played today--it has been postponed.

This does not affect the women's game of the doubleheader-- the Wash U women are still scheduled to play UChicago at 3 PM Central/4 PM Eastern.

Awaiting further details. 

11;52 AM ET update-- Jay Murry has confirmed that illnesses among several men's basketball players of Chicago, Wash U, or both (could be officials, too, if not players) have caused the postponement today of the men's Chicago at Wash U game.   The women's game is still on as scheduled.

12:52 PM update-- TitanQ confirms norovirus bug among Wash U men's team has caused the postponement of today's game.

2:52 PM update-- Jay Murry confirmed during the second half of today's UAA men's games that the Chicago at Wash U men's game has been rescheduled for tomorrow--Sunday, January 12, at 2 PM Central/3 PM Eastern. 

[deiscanton]

I am going to be very interested when the D3Datacast computer does a new update on the UAA Men's Basketball race that reflects the Chicago at Wash U men's victory today.

There was a new 1,000 simulation run of the UAA men's basketball race this morning on the D3Datacast computer that reflected the results from yesterday's UAA games, and that run already showed the UAA race tightening now that some results from the first weekend of UAA play have come in.   Unfortunately due to the norovirus bug that forced a delay in the Chicago at Wash U men's game to today, only 3 of the 4 UAA games from this weekend were reflected in the January 12, 2025 morning simulation run.

The run still showed NYU winning the AQ in over 700 of the 1,000 simulations run this morning, but gave Emory and Wash U more chances to win the AQ.   With the Wash U loss today, however, there may be fewer simulations in the next run that show Wash U winning the AQ.     

[deiscanton]

Here is a follow-up on the story of the norovirus bug that hit the Wash U men's basketball team on Saturday.    According to Eliza Stulman, junior Sports Editor for the Wash U Student Life newspaper, the norovirus bug was transmitted to the team through eating contanimated food.  The official student newspaper article, therefore, refers to the cause of the illnesses as food poisoning:

http://www.studlife.com/sports/2025/01/13/fighting-illnesses-no-5-mens-basketball-fall-to-uchicago

[deiscanton]

I have been reviewing the archived video of Sunday's Emory vs Brandeis men's game from the video player on the Brandeis web site.  (The entire doubleheader is currently up on the video player until the next live athletic event from Red Auerbach Arena takes place-- at that time, the new game feed is rerecorded over the old one-- so capture events on your own screen recorders from the game feed while you can.)   Keep in mind that Brandeis only archives for on-demand review the most recent athletic event conducted at the Gosman Center/Red Auerbach Arena in Waltham, MA on the main viewing player screen.  At worst, you get the overnight on the night of the game to go over what you missed live if there is a live sporting event at Brandeis the following day.  Fortunately, there are no home basketball games scheduled at Brandeis for the next few weeks, so I had an opportunity to review the foul that was committed by Brandeis's Ethan Edwards on Jair Knight of Emory in the first half with 16:11 to go until halftime.

That foul in the first half clearly meets the NBA's definition of a clear path foul to the basket, and the penalty assessed on Brandeis was unfortunately justified.  While the NCAA does not use the term "clear path foul", as that term is only used in the NBA and the WNBA, the NCAA's flagrant 1 in men's basketball, or unsportsmanlike foul in women's basketball, incorporates the clear path foul situation as part of its definition.  The fouled team in a clear path foul situation gets 2 free throws and the ball.   

In the Emory vs Brandeis game , Jair Knight of Emory clearly stole the ball and already blew past Brandeis's Ethan Edwards when Knight got fouled in the back on a fast break.  Knight would have gotten a monster dunk, or at least an easy layup, at the end of the play if the foul had not happened.   There was clearly no defender positioned between Jair Knight and the basket.   While Ethan Edwards had no intention to injure Knight on the foul, this is a situation where Knight could have gotten hurt because he was already revving up to full speed for the dunk.

The flagrant 1 call on Ethan Edwards was unfortunately justified, as much as I hate to admit it as a Brandeis fan.

Emory is already tough enough to beat without having a flagrant 1 foul and 3 technical fouls called on your team for the game.

Time to move on.  Brandeis has 4 straight UAA road games on back to back Friday/Sunday doubleheaders for the next two weeks.   I am hoping that the Judges can pick up at least 2 and possibly 3 road victories in the next 4 games to stay in the hunt for an at-large bid to the NCAA DIII tournament.   I consider Friday's game at CWRU at Horsburgh Gym in Cleveland a must-win, and then Brandeis needs to get at least 1 or 2 road victories at either Carnegie Mellon, Chicago, or Wash U to keep at-large chances for the Judges significantly alive going into the second half of UAA play. 

[deiscanton]

Injury report on CWRU this morning courtesy of TitanQ--

CWRU starter Nicholas Schiavello sustained a college career ending injury in last Sunday's game at UChicago when he sustained a torn ACL and meniscus.

The Spartans will need a new starter for the rest of the season to play alongside Andy Burba, Sam Trunley, Umar Rashid, and Aaron Rucker.  It remains to be seen whether or not the 5th starter will be a starter by committee depending on the particular game circumstances, or whether or not there is someone available from the bench who can step up right now to be the permanent 5th starter.  I will see on the video stream and live stats at game time who will start for CWRU against the Brandeis Judges tonight at Horsburgh Gym.

Schiavello was a grad transfer from CCIW school Wheaton (IL) and played significant minutes this season for the Spartans. 

[y_jack_lok]

Looking at the scores tonight, the lowest scoring game was the one that went to OT won by Chicago over Emory 80-70.

The other scores:

Brandeis 101 - CWRU 93
NYU 96 - CMU 90
Wash U 99 - Rochester 82.

The Emory/Chicago score is reasonable, especially for an OT game. Otherwise, are the offenses that good, or are the defenses that bad?

[deiscanton]

Looking at the scores tonight, the lowest scoring game was the one that went to OT won by Chicago over Emory 80-70.

The other scores:

Brandeis 101 - CWRU 93
NYU 96 - CMU 90
Wash U 99 - Rochester 82.

The Emory/Chicago score is reasonable, especially for an OT game. Otherwise, are the offenses that good, or are the defenses that bad?

Brandeis men played great defense in the first half of last night's ballgame to take a 22 point lead at 57-35 at the break, but CWRU made 11 of 18 from 3 pt land in the second half to really make it a close game.  CWRU made 17 of 34 from 3 pt land for the entire game last night.  When CWRU defeated Carnegie Mellon in the UAA opener, the Spartans only made 12 3's for the entire game.   When you can make a lot of 3 pointers in a game, you are never completely out of it.  I was a little amazed that the Spartans men's team made so many 3 pointers in the second half-- I was a little concerned that the CWRU women were more likely to get really hot from 3 pt land in the second game of the doubleheader and really make it a tough game for Brandeis on the women's side.   Fortunately, that was not the case, although the women's game was close throughout with Brandeis sweeping the doubleheader at Horsburgh Gym on both the men's and women's sides at the end of the evening.

[deiscanton]

For your information--

1.)  In UAA men's history 7 years ago, CWRU tied a single conference game team record previously set by Rochester (vs CWRU on Jan. 22, 2016) for most 3's made in a UAA conference game.   CWRU made 18 of 34 from 3 pt land that day vs Brandeis on January 26, 2018.

There have been 3 times in UAA competition that a UAA men's basketball team made 18 3's in a conference game--

(1)  CWRU (vs Emory on Feb. 12, 2023)-- Spartans made 18 of 34 from 3 pt land.
(2)  CWRU (vs Brandeis on January 26, 2018)-- Spartans made 18 of 34 from 3 pt land.
(3)  Rochester (vs CWRU on January 22, 2016)-- Yellowjackets made 18 of 37 from 3 pt land.

2.)  Rochester vs CWRU on January 22, 2016 set the single game record for most 3's combined made by both teams in a single conference game with 31.  (CWRU made 13 of 41 from 3 pt land in that game.)

3.)  Rochester vs CWRU on January 22, 2016 also set the single game record for most 3 point attempts combined by both teams in a single conference game with 78 3 point attempts by both teams.

Last night, CWRU men (vs Brandeis) fell 1 3 pointer short of tying the single game record for most 3's made by a UAA team in a conference game.

Last night's CWRU vs Brandeis men's basketball game only had 27 3's made combined by both teams and 55 3 pt attempts combined by both teams-- well short of single conference game records.

[deiscanton]

To answer a question asked yesterday-- "Are the offenses that good, or the defenses that terrible?", My answer to that question is that it is more likely than not that the offenses among UAA teams are really good. You can confirm that by looking at the updated efficiency numbers from D3Datacast.    Looking at the box scores from the NYU vs Carnegie Mellon and Wash U vs Rochester games from Friday, the box scores have common factors.   In both games, the men's teams made a lot of 3 pointers combined for the game and made a lot of points from the charity stripe, as there were a large number of fouls called on both teams.   For example, in the NYU vs Carnegie Mellon game, 37 fouls were called on both teams combined, while in the WashU vs Rochester game, the ref called a combined 40 fouls on both teams. 

On the 3 point front, NYU made 12 3 pointers vs Carnegie Mellon's 11., and NYU outscored the Tartans from the charity stripe, 24-15.

In the WashU vs Rochester game, WashU made 15 3 pointers vs Rochester's 10, and Rochester outscored WashU from the charity stripe, 18-12.

[deiscanton]

In other news from Friday, WashU's Yogi Oliff played at Rochester after missing the previous 6 games due to a hand injury.  (Thanks to WashU Student Life newspaper for describing the nature of the injury.)  Those 6 games included the big non-conference rivalry game vs Illinois Wesleyan.   Yogi Oliff last played in the Lopata Classic on Dec. 7, 2024 prior to Friday's game.  In the game at the Louis Alexander Palestra on Friday, Oliff came off the bench for 16 min of action, and scored 5 points,grabbed 4 rebounds, made 3 assists and stole the ball once. 

[deiscanton]

Here are the results of the latest updated projected run of 1,000 simulations of the UAA men's basketball race conducted Saturday Jan. 25, 2025 at 7:02 AM ET on the D3Datacast computer.

This takes into account the results from Friday night, Jan. 24, 2025, as well as the first 2 weekends of UAA play.

In the latest run of 1,000 simulations of the UAA race--

1,)  NYU wins the AQ 549 times out of 1,000 and gets an at-large bid the remaining 451 times.   All 1,000 simulations have NYU in the field, and NYU has a protected top 8 seed in 954 of those 1,000 simulations.  (Overall #4 seed according to the projections.)

2.)  Emory wins the AQ 357 times out of 1,000 and gets an at-large bid the remaining 643 times.  Emory has a protected top 8 seed in 912 of those 1,000 simulations.  (Overall #5 seed according to the projections.)

3.)  WashU wins the AQ 66 times out of 1,000 and gets an at-large bid in 921 of the remaining 934 simulations.  In 986 of the 1,000 simulations, WashU will get an at-large if needed.  WashU makes the field in 987 of the 1,000 simulations, but only gets a protected top 8 seed in 389 of the 1,000 simulations.

4.)  Chicago wins the AQ 26 times out of 1,000 and gets an at-large bid in 780 other simulations out of the 1,000 simulations run.  In 801 of the 1,000 simulations, Chicago will get an at-large if needed.  Chicago makes the field in 806 of the 1,000 simulations, but only gets a protected top 8 seed in 36 simulations.

5.)  Brandeis wins the AQ 2 times out of the 1,000 simulations and gets an at-large bid in 341 other simulations out of the 1,000 in the current run.  In 342 of the 1,000 simulations, Brandeis will get an at-large bid if needed.  Brandeis makes the field in 343 of the 1,000 simulations, but only gets a protected top 8 seed in 2 simulations.

6.)  Carnegie Mellon gets an at-large on only 60 of the 1,000 simulations.

7.)  Rochester and CWRU do not make the tournament in any simulation.

Of course, the UAA race will be decided on the court, and not on a computer spreadsheet.  Looking forward to Sunday's games.

[Greek Tragedy]

Emory loses twice at home this weekend. Way overrated. May not even get a Pool C bid now. 

[stlawus]

The proportion of attention some of these teams receive on certain social media sites seems to coincide with a stretch of regression and bad play. I think some folks are getting a little too quick to declare teams champs and favorites.  Just because a team is in a historically good league doesn't mean they are automatically a championship team this season.  Emory barely getting by Union at home should have rang more alarm bells.

[deiscanton]

Emory men did have a rough weekend at home this time out vs Chicago and WashU-- the WashU Bears did beat Emory yesterday pretty soundly, but does that automatically mean that the Eagles will not win at least 3 of the 4 upcoming games (probably all 4) vs CWRU and Carnegie Mellon over the next two weekends?

Okay, I can see Emory in the 11-20 range in the D3Hoops.com Top 25 poll this week, and yes, Union did give Emory quite a battle, but so did Drew at NYU and Dickinson at Carnegie Mellon.

I would be more concerned about Carnegie Mellon being out of the at-large picture right now than I am about Emory right now, but give me a few more weeks, and if Emory is on a 5 or 6 game losing streak by the time there are 5 games remaining in the UAA schedule, we can talk then.

There is still a lot of basketball left to be played.

Yes, I saw the most recently updated Sunday morning 1,000 game simulation picture, but I have to wait until the next simulation run which will take into account yesterday's UAA results before I can post and react to it.

Interestingly, the D3Datacast computer did not think that the UAA was among the top 10 tightest conference races in D3 men's hoop to start UAA play.  It thought that the GNAC, Skyline, NEWMAC, and NESCAC all had tighter conference races than the UAA.   The UAA has certainly tightened up in its men's basketball race now that all 8 teams have played 5 UAA contest now with 9 games remaining to play.   

[deiscanton]

Emory loses twice at home this weekend. Way overrated. May not even get a Pool C bid now. 

Getting carried away a bit, Greek Tragedy?     Sunday morning's D3DataCast simulations projected a minimum NPI score for Emory of 61.99 at the end of the season.  Emory is still 3 points in the NPI above that minimum as of Monday morning's D3Datacast NPI run.   If Emory's NPI drops below 61.99, then we can evaluate further on this.

Now as far as Top 25 goes, Emory can be ranked in the #11 to #20 range if you want to penalize the Eagles for dropping 2 home games to Chicago and WashU over the weekend.   Tough to go 2-0 on the UAA road Midwest trip.   Brandeis and NYU will attempt it this upcoming weekend.