MBB: University Athletic Association

[deiscanton]

D3Hoops.com Top 25 poll just came out this afternoon for games through Sunday, January 26, 2025.

UAA teams in the poll--

#5  NYU-- 495 points.
#6  WashU-- 468 points.
#11 Emory-- 391 points.
#22 Chicago-- 98 points.

RV-- Brandeis-- 6 points.

(Side note:  Congrats to my brother's alma mater's men's basketball team on becoming #1 in the poll for the first time in their program history.  My brother graduated from Wesleyan in 1992 and covered the basketball teams for their student newspaper the Argus back in the day.)

[deiscanton]

The results of the current end of season NPI projections and anticipated bids have now been updated to include results from yesterday's UAA games.

This 1,000 season NPI simulation run on the D3Datacast computer was posted on the D3Datacast website on Monday, January 27, 2025 at 4:42 PM ET.

The UAA men's basketball race has gotten a lot tighter 5 games into the UAA conference season since the beginning of UAA conference play, when the D3Datacast computer did not even think that the UAA race was one of the 10 tighest conference races in D3 men's hoop back then.

1,000 NPI simulations of the rest of the UAA schedule were run, and the results came up with 3.30 anticipated at-large bids awarded to the UAA in addition to the AQ at the end of the season.

As of Monday afternoon, January 27, 2025 at 4:42 PM ET, when the simulation run that incorporated the results from all 5 previous matchdays of UAA play was posted.

The simulation run posted a minimum projected Pool C cut line of 59.13 and a maximum projected Pool C cut line of 62.13 NPI.  Average projected Pool C cut line in this simulation run is 60.598, according to D3DataCast.

1.)  NYU got a protected top 8 seed in 912 of the 1,000 simulations and made the field in all 1,000 simulations.   NYU got the AQ 545 times out of 1,000 and got an at-large in the remaining 455 simulations. NYU got an at-large if needed in all 1,000 simulations. 

2.)  Emory got a protected top 8 seed in 713 of the 1,000 simulations and still made the field in all 1,000 simulations.  Emory got the AQ 187 times out of 1,000 and got an at-large in the remaining 813 simulations.  Emory got an at-large if needed in all 1,000 simulations.

3.)  WashU got a protected top 8 seed in 651 of the 1,000 simulations and made the field in all but 1 of the simulations.  WashU got the AQ 232 times out of 1,000 and got an at-large bid in 767 of the remaining 768 simulations.  WashU got an at-large in needed in 999 of the 1,000 simulations of the remainder of the UAA men's basketball race.

4.)  Chicago made the D3 tournament field in 784 of the 1,000 simulations and was guaranteed an at-large bid if needed in 777 of the 1,000 simulations.  Chicago got a protected top 8 seed in only 29 simulations, and got the AQ 33 times out of 1,000, but the Maroons got an at-large in 751 of the remaining 1,000 simulations.

5.)  Brandeis men have improved their at-large selection chances over the past weekend by sweeping the CWRU/Carnegie Mellon road trip, if the latest D3Datacast simulation run is any indication. In the current simulation run, Brandeis makes the D3 tournament field in 488 of the 1,000 simulations.  Brandeis men only get a protected top 8 seed in 5 of the 1,000 simulations, and only get the AQ 3 times out of the 1,000.  However, the Judges get an at-large bid in 485 of the remaining 997 simulations of the UAA race via the NPI, and get an at-large bid if needed in 486 of the 1,000 simulations.

6.)  Carnegie Mellon only gets an at-large bid in 28 of the 1,000 NPI season simulations of the remainder of the UAA race.  Therefore, the Tartans only made the field 28 times out of 1,000 in this latest NPI simulation run.

7.)  Rochester and CWRU did not make the NCAA D3 tournament in any simulation.

[deiscanton]

Upon request of at least one person in the D3Hoops community, I have just updated my deiscanton X profile picture with a shot of game action from this season's Brandeis home doubleheader vs Emory which I took on Sunday, January 19, 2025.   WUPHF sent me some images as well, but while I have been able to download those for my computer, I have been unable to upload those onto my X profile, so I am using a gameshot that I took instead, which I was able to load.   I may take some new game shots on my phone camera during the next Brandeis home weekend when WashU and Chicago make the trip east. 

[deiscanton]

The D3Datacast computer just updated their NPI projected 1,000 simulation runs of the rest of the DIII men's basketball seasons-- including results up through last night, January 29, 2025.

In the most updated simulation run, Brandeis now would make the DIII tournament in 515 of the 1,000 simulations-- in 3 of the 1,000 simulations, Brandeis would win the AQ, and in the other 512, Brandeis would get an at-large.  In 514 of the 1,000 simulations run this morning, Brandeis would get an at-large if needed. 

Brandeis needs to win at least 4 of the next 9 games to have a shot at an at-large bid at the end of the season. 

The projected NPI range of Brandeis in the simulations at the end of the season runs from a minimum of 55.64 to a maximum 66.75 with an average of 60.61, according to D3Datacast. 

This morning, however, if selections were held today, D3DataCast estimates that Brandeis would be the second team out.  This morning's NPI run unofficially has Brandeis with a current NPI of 59.604, just barely above the minimum projected simulated cut line of 59.51.  However, the current unofficial NPI run this morning has a cut line this morning at 59.748, with North Park getting the 21st and final at-large bid if the at-large field had to be picked this morning. 

That means that Brandeis definitely needs to get at least 1 win on the Midwest trip this weekend to stay on course for an at-large bid.

Simulation runs still bullish on NYU, Emory, WashU, and Chicago getting DIII tournament bids. (1 AQ, projected 3.33 at-large bids on the latest simulation run.)     

[deiscanton]

I just noticed on the NYU athletics website that a portion of the Paulson Center has been flooded again.  As a result, the pool, pool locker room, wrestling room, and basketball courts at 181 Mercer Street have been closed until further notice, according to the news.  All other areas of the Paulson Center remain open.

It would be a real heartbreak if the rest of the NYU home basketball season would have to be played at the smaller Brooklyn Athletic Facility as a result of the flooding.  It would mean that very few fans would be able to attend the games in person, plus NYU basketball would not be able to have home playoff games, as was the case in the 2022-23 season.

The last time a pipe burst due to freezing at 181 Mercer Street back in December, 2022, leading to flooding at the Paulson Center just before the building was to formally open, the basketball courts had to be completely redone, and the debut of the athletic portion of the facility was delayed from January 2023 to September 2023 when women's volleyball became the first to have home games played in the Paulson Center's inaugural year. NYU basketball was played at the less than 200 seat Brooklyn Athletic Facility at Tandon School of Engineering at MetroTech Center.  I am hoping that we do not have to suffer a repeat of this scenario this season-- it would be heartbreaking. 

[deiscanton]

More details on the burst drinking water pipe at the Paulson Center at 181 Mercer Street that occurred yesterday morning, Thursday, January 30, 2025, courtesy of NYU student newspaper Washington Square News--

http://nyunews.com/news/2025/01/31/paulson-flood-club-fest-relocated/

[deiscanton]

We are still waiting for an official NPI rankings summary report for DIII Men's Basketball for this week, as the first attempt by the NCAA DIII Men's Basketball Committee to publish it on the NCAA statistics page did not succeed.

This morning at http://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties, a link to what would have connected to the official NPI report for games played through Feb. 2 was published, but when you clicked on to that link, there was an error message that said "No data available in table."   The error has not been corrected as of Feb. 3, 2025 at 9:51 AM ET.  Hopefully, it will be resolved by tomorrow and we finally can get official numbers to compare with the unofficial D3 Datacast runs. 

The women's D3 basketball NPI report for this week did get officially published last night, and the numbers in the official report are accurate. 

[deiscanton]

The first official NPI rankings summary report by the NCAA DIII Men's Basketball Committee was published this afternoon, and the official NPI numbers on the men's side currently differ from those NPI numbers published by D3Datacast by .001 t0 .007 of a point.

Most likely explanation is that there seems to be an error in the coding of some of the games for purposes of the home/away multiplier on the men's side that would account for the difference.   Upon hearing from Zac Snyder, the D3Datacast people are checking to see exactly on which side the error occured-- whether it was an error in the coding of the games on Massey's system, or if the error occured in the inputting of data into the NCAA computer system.  I thought that the NCAA DIII computer did one or two extra iterations in their run, but upon asking about this, it is more likely an error in the coding of some of the games on the men's side.   Not surprised about this.  The NPI numbers are still very very close on the men's side, however. 

The NPI numbers on the women's side are entirely accurate, and since there is no home/away multiplier on the women's side, that is not surprising either.

The difference in the numbers did not affect the order of the NPI ranking on the men's side for most of the teams this week.   

[deiscanton]

I got a text from my friend Gerry this morning, and contrary to what he initially told me on Monday, he texted me back today to tell me that he got his dates on the calendar mixed up and that he can drive me home on Friday night after the WashU at Brandeis doubleheader.

So, I am very relieved to tell you that I will be going to Brandeis this Friday after all to watch WashU at Brandeis in person.

I know that the odds of the Brandeis men's basketball team making the NCAA DIII tournament are not good this year, but I will accept the Brandeis men sweeping at least one or two Fri/Sunday home UAA weekends before the season is over.  The Brandeis men have not accomplished that feat since before COVID hit. 

[deiscanton]

According to the NYU published activity schedules for Paulson Center today, the men's and women's basketball teams are both scheduled to practice on the main Paulson courts this afternoon, and that UAA basketball will be played this weekend at 181 Mercer Street vs Chicago and WashU.

As a precaution, there are no pickup basketball games scheduled for this week on the main Paulson Center floor to allow more dehumidification to take place-- the NYU students, faculty, and staff will have to go to Palladium Athletic Facility this week to do their pickup games.  The other areas listed as closed at Paulson Center will remain closed to the general NYU community for at least the remainder of this week-- other than what is necessary for the athletic teams. 

As a result, this did affect the club sports and intramural team calendars at NYU for at least this week.   

The men's basketball team did practice yesterday at Palladium on East 14th Street in New York City according to the facility calendars published yesterday, while the NYU women's team had a 30 minute team meeting Monday afternoon at Palladium and took yesterday off as a complete rest day.   The NYU men's team rested on Monday. 

It would have been a scramble to relocate the games this week--- the court at the Brooklyn Athletic Facility sustained greater water damage back in January which was not reported in the NYU student newspapers.   According to the published Brooklyn Athletic Facility activity calendars published by NYU for the info of the NYU general community, that court needs to have its floor completely replaced, so the court at the Tandon School of Engineering is out of commission for the time being.

[Tigerfan]

So, I am very relieved to tell you that I will be going to Brandeis this Friday after all to watch WashU at Brandeis in person.

... but I will accept the Brandeis men sweeping at least one or two Fri/Sunday home UAA weekends before the season is over.  The Brandeis men have not accomplished that feat since before COVID hit. 

Halfway there! You got to see a good one.

[deiscanton]

So, I am very relieved to tell you that I will be going to Brandeis this Friday after all to watch WashU at Brandeis in person.

... but I will accept the Brandeis men sweeping at least one or two Fri/Sunday home UAA weekends before the season is over.  The Brandeis men have not accomplished that feat since before COVID hit. 

Halfway there! You got to see a good one.

When this year's Brandeis men's basketball is a healthy team at full strength, like they were last night, they can reasonably contend for a postseason bid.   I talked with Adam Levin of Brandeis Sports Information last night after the doubleheader, and I found out that one of the reasons Brandeis did not do so well on the Midwest trip was that a lot of Brandeis players were under the weather that weekend.   Toby Harris missed the game at UChicago due to illness, for example.  However, I am not going to blame Brandeis's losses on the Midwest trip solely to a flu bug.   I would be too stupid to do that.  Teams battle injury and illness all the time, and the best teams find a way to overcome it.

Tomorrow, a strong UChicago team led by Thomas Kurowski and Joe Berry plays at Brandeis.  UChicago will have their practice at Brandeis this afternoon before heading to their team hotel in Waltham, MA to ride out tonight's snowstorm.  Tomorrow's game should go off as scheduled, as this winter storm is going to be a quick mover that will dump an average of 6 inches in the Boston area-= the heaviest snowfall rates should be between 10 PM ET tonight and 3 AM ET tomorrow morning, before the storm winds down late Sunday morning.    A winter storm warning is up for the Boston area tonight for this system.  By 8:45 AM ET tomorrow, I will get word on whether or not I will be at Brandeis for the doubleheader to watch in person, or whether or not I will have to listen to Jonah White's PBP call on the Brandeis video stream.

BTW, I saw most of the NYU men vs UChicago game from last night on demand this morning.  Great layup at the buzzer by Brock Susko for the NYU win-- I am not sure that it was as exciting as Dari Magyar's 3 pointer at the buzzer at Coles Center that led the NYU women to victory over WashU in the 2000-2001 season, but for this season, the Susko layup at the buzzer is a highlight moment.

Also, BTW, when a WashU fan tells you that he/she is staying at the Residence Inn by Marriott while attending the game at Brandeis and that the Residence Inn is off the highway-- the Residence Inn by Marriott, (while not part of the Park Lodge Hotel Group of Waltham hotels off Winter Street), is indeed in Waltham, MA just a few miles from the Brandeis campus.

[deiscanton]

This morning's D3Datacast season simulation run, which was run today at 8:48 AM ET, has moved the Brandeis men back on the bubble.

In this latest season run, which took the Brandeis home win vs WashU into account, Brandeis got an at-large bid in 379 of the 1,000 season simulations.   This is up from the 173 times out of 1,000 season simulations in Friday morning's run.

As a result, Brandeis has moved from Probably Out to the top team in the Bubble Out category.

Brandeis still needs to win tomorrow vs UChicago to insure that the Judges stay on the bubble for a postseason bid.

Carnegie Mellon men only got an at-large bid in 11 of the 1,000 season simulations run this morning.

[deiscanton]

The official NCAA DIII NPI Summary Report for Men's Basketball has been released this morning for games through Sunday, February 9, 2025.

All adjusted wins/losses records of the UAA men's basketball teams are correct.

There are still discrepancies in the NPI numbers between the 2 reports,and there is a discrepancy in a placement on the NPI table between CWRU of the UAA and Dean of the GNAC.

The placements of the other 7 UAA teams nationally on the NPI table are correct, despite the discrepancies in the numbers.

Here are the discrepancies this morning--

(#2 NPI rating)-- NYU.  D3Datacast has the NPI unofficially this morning at 72.007, while the NCAA has the NPI at 72.010.

(#4 NPI rating)-- Emory.  D3Datacast has the NPI unofficially this morning at 67.761, while the NCAA has the NPI at 67.764.

(#19 NPI rating)-- WashU.  D3Datacast has the NPI unofficially this morning at 62.733, while the NCAA has the NPI at 62.727.

(#29 NPI rating)  UChicago.  D3Datacast has the NPI unofficially this morning at 61.747, while the NCAA has the NPI at 61.745.

(#54 NPI rating)  Brandeis.  D3Datacast has the NPI unofficially this morning at 58.848, while the NCAA has the NPI at 58.853.

(#61 NPI rating).  Carnegie Mellon.  D3Datacast has the NPI unofficially this morning at 58.394, while the NCAA has the NPI at 58.395.

(#204 NPI rating)  Rochester.  D3Datacast has the NPI unoffically this morning at 50.625, while the NCAA has the NPI at 50.627

(#239 NPI rating according to D3Datacast-- #240 NPI rating according to NCAA)-- CWRU.  D3Datacast has the NPI unofficially at 49.420, while the NCAA has the NPI at 49.421).

CWRU and Dean are placed differently in the national NPI table between D3Datacast and NCAA.

D3Datacast computer unofficially has Dean at #240 NPI rating-- Adjusted win/loss total of 9.7 wins and 7.5 losses-- NPI of 49.416.

NCAA computer unofficially has Dean at #239 NPI rating-- Adjusted win/loss total of 9.8 wins and 7.5 losses-- NPI of 49.454

  These discrepancies only affect the men's basketball side-- The NPI numbers on the women's side are an exact match between the D3Datacast computer and the NCAA computer.

[CNU85]

CNU Earns Top Carnegie Research Designation

Hey guys!!     

I'm just having some fun! But the CNU story is legit.