MBB: University Athletic Association

Marty Peretz · February 15, 2009, 05:05:13 PM

Wash.U. wins the league! Time for Sager and my other detractors to dock more karma points from me for my alleged arrogance and obnoxious remarks. Seriously, though, congrats to the guys for bringing the title back to the arch city. Now it's time to make sure everything is running on all cylinders come tournament time and to ensure that home court advantage is ours until Salem (not saying we'll get back there, just that it'd be nice to know we'll be home for the first portion of the tournament).

BUBeaverFan · February 15, 2009, 07:58:18 PM

Tough day shooting for the Bears 34.5% first halft 29.2% second half 32.1% for game (3-14 from behind the arc) Free throw shooting made the difference 34-40 +24 for the Bears). Bears at home for the last 3 regular season games. Case only shot 34.3% so it was generally a pretty ugly game for shooting fans.

Gregory Sager · February 16, 2009, 01:20:35 PM

Quote from: Marty Peretz on February 15, 2009, 05:05:13 PM
Wash.U. wins the league! Time for Sager and my other detractors to dock more karma points from me for my alleged arrogance and obnoxious remarks

I've never done anything at all to your karma, but since baseless accusations are your specialty I won't stop you while you're on a roll.

Chicago's now sitting at 5-6, alone in fifth place. If the Maroons can take down Rochester and Carnegie Mellon this coming weekend in the Ratner Center, they can make a strong push for a first-division finish in spite of the fact that they're likely to end the season with a loss at Wash U.

Hugenerd · February 18, 2009, 04:33:32 PM

Regional Rankings out:

WU: #1 in Midwest

CMU: drops only 1 spot to #3 in the Great Lakes

Rochester: drops slightly to # 4 in the East

Brandeis: Debuts at #10 in the East (if they can win out, you never know, UNE plays at Gordon, Amherst could lose in the NESCAC tourney, Salem State could drop a game, they could find their way up to # 7 or so in the NE and then if things hold up ahead of them, they may be in consideration. One could see a scenario where 5 of the top 6 teams get a Pool A or Pool B bid and Brandeis could be the second team from the NE up for Pool C consideration, but its a long shot).

tommygun · February 20, 2009, 02:40:09 PM

Just a thought on Brandeis, I have contended that I think they can sneak in with 17 wins due to their strength of schedule for a while. Obviously they have to win out, but I really think that CMU is going to help them. Say CMU loses one more, (with two losses I still contend they have a pretty good shot,) and finish 19-6. They have a better overall record, and a much better region record than Brandeis. But if they were on the board for consideration at the same time, wouldn't you have a hard time taking Carnegie over Brandeis? Brandeis will have a better UAA record, which to be fair, I don't know if they look at that at all, but much more importantly Brandeis has beaten CMU twice. I just don't see how they could keep a 19-6 CMU team out and if they take CMU and Brandeis has worked their way upto the second at-large team in the NE as Hugenerd describes and is on the board, I think they would have to seriously consider Brandeis as well.

I've said all-along that I think they can get in with 17 and I still think they have a pretty good shot. Time will tell.

On another note, and I realize I'm stating the obvious, but the East region is really weak. Despite that, I think Rochester is going to have to win out, and I think they have no shot at that. So it's down to Carnegie having some work to do, although I think with wins over Wooster and JCU (a win which looks better and better every day,) plus their non-conference loss, I believe, is out of region, so they would only have 6 region losses, so I think they would still get in at 18-7 and Brandeis who has to win out and then sweat it out. But for all the reasons hugenerd posted above I continue to believe they have a good shot at it.

Hugenerd · February 20, 2009, 02:49:24 PM

Tommy,

Here is some further discussion on Brandeis that I posted yesterday on the NEWMAC board (we were discussing NE region rankings):

As for Brandeis, it seems like they have a lot of losses, but you have to consider who they are against: They have 2 "in-region" losses to WashU who is one of the top 2 teams in the country, they have a loss to #1 NE WPI, a loss to #6 NE UMD, and #4 in the East Rochester. They also have been pretty good in their last 19 games (14-5) after losing the first 3. Couple that with the fact they have a 14 point win over RIC (#4 in NE), a 15 point win at Amherst (#8 in NE), two wins over CMU (#3 in the great lakes), and a win over Rochester (#4 in the East) and they have a decent resume. They have 3 "bad" losses that will hurt them: Lasell (I know they are 17-7 but still they arent ranked in NE), Framingham State, and at Chicago. I think they move ahead of UNE this week, with their loss at Gordon, (Brandeos should take care of Emory and Case Western at home) and I would also put them ahead of Amherst since they beat them pretty badly at their place (especially if Amherst slips up in the NESCAC tourney). They could potentially be ranked as high as #7 on selection Sunday if Salem State loses their tourney. If WPI, Middlebury, RIC or UMD, and Bridgewater wins their tourney (and Elms gets the Pool B), they could be second team under consideration out of the NE on selection sunday (behind UMD or RIC). They will also likely finish 2nd in the UAA (if they win out, CMU still has to play WashU and Rochester, Brandeis has the 3 worst teams in the conference remaining), which could help them because it is a pretty strong national conference. Dont forget that Brandeis also has extremely high OWP and OOWP numbers (.623 and .538). In fact, Brandeis has the highest OWP in the country at 0.623 by almost a full 0.02 (which is a pretty significant amount), meaning they have played the toughest schedule in d3. It will be interesting to see what happens.

pabegg · February 20, 2009, 03:32:18 PM

Just a reminder, some of these things don't matter.

Margin of victory is not a factor. By 1 or 100, it's just a win.
When the games were won or lost (so the 14-5 run doesn't matter).
Where you finish in the league.
How early you're on the selection board.

If Brandeis and Carnegie are on the board at the same time, I would think the head-to-head would come into play, to Brandeis' advantage.

Hugenerd · February 20, 2009, 03:42:33 PM

Quote from: pabegg on February 20, 2009, 03:32:18 PM
Just a reminder, some of these things don't matter.

Margin of victory is not a factor. By 1 or 100, it's just a win.
When the games were won or lost (so the 14-5 run doesn't matter).
Where you finish in the league.
How early you're on the selection board.

If Brandeis and Carnegie are on the board at the same time, I would think the head-to-head would come into play, to Brandeis' advantage.

I agree with you, but when you are one of the top 8 teams and under consideration for Pool C, it seems to me that the process becomes much more subjective. Stats like in-region winning percentage, OWP, and OOWP all seem to no longer be as valid and, since people are making these decisions and there is no exact formula, I think some of these subjective measures may come into play. The head-to-head I am sure will be big, no doubt, if both teams are under consideration at the same time.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 20, 2009, 04:24:01 PM

hungenerd - I don't think you realize that when the coaches get together and make these decisions, they only base it on the information they are allowed to consider... period. Believe it or not, the regional rankings we see are practice for them for when they have to select the final rankings for eventual selection to the NCAA tournament. Then the overall committee looks at those selections based on the information they are allowed to consider and judge from there. That is why we always say on this site, a game back in November means just as much as a game in February when it comes to selecting teams for the tournament.

Hugenerd · February 20, 2009, 05:08:52 PM

Quote from: Dave "d-mac" McHugh on February 20, 2009, 04:24:01 PM
hungenerd - I don't think you realize that when the coaches get together and make these decisions, they only base it on the information they are allowed to consider... period. Believe it or not, the regional rankings we see are practice for them for when they have to select the final rankings for eventual selection to the NCAA tournament. Then the overall committee looks at those selections based on the information they are allowed to consider and judge from there. That is why we always say on this site, a game back in November means just as much as a game in February when it comes to selecting teams for the tournament.

Well, I see Dave has figured out my other nickname.

I understand what you are saying, but winning margin aside, I am pretty sure results against ranked opponents and head-to-head are (or maybe it was and I am misremembering) a criteria. Brandeis' wins against top opponents will matter. For example, since UNE lost, Brandeis will move up a spot (presumably) and be ranked adjacent to Amherst. Since they beat Amherst, I could see that causing a switch in those rankings. Anyway, the people making these decisions are human. Explain to me how Wheaton (IL) made the tourney last year according to the numbers (pabegg has said he cannot) and I will concede.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh · February 20, 2009, 06:22:58 PM

Well... there are more than just numbers in place... this is true. pabegg's numbers are a certain factor and are heavily considered... but there are other criteria and certainly head-to-head matters. Brandeis has a chance to get in and if they are head-to-head with Carnegie, they probably get the nod. However, they will also be head-to-head with six other regions, so they could be left on the board (with Carnegie) the entire time... who knows.

All I am saying is: don't add criteria and assume that the committees will add factors and criteria that they want to chose a team. Wheaton made it on other criteria that the committee used... not just the raw numbers.

Hugenerd · February 20, 2009, 08:24:28 PM

Quote from: Dave "d-mac" McHugh on February 20, 2009, 06:22:58 PM
Well... there are more than just numbers in place... this is true. pabegg's numbers are a certain factor and are heavily considered... but there are other criteria and certainly head-to-head matters. Brandeis has a chance to get in and if they are head-to-head with Carnegie, they probably get the nod. However, they will also be head-to-head with six other regions, so they could be left on the board (with Carnegie) the entire time... who knows.

All I am saying is: don't add criteria and assume that the committees will add factors and criteria that they want to chose a team. Wheaton made it on other criteria that the committee used... not just the raw numbers.

Agreed.

Hugenerd · February 20, 2009, 10:57:23 PM

Rochester loses badly at Chicago, 74-54. They are done in terms of NCAAs, in my opinion (with a game against WashU coming up on Sunday).

CMU goes down tonight to WashU, 77-63. Game was single digits most of the second half but CMU never got closer than 6 or 7 points. They now have two must wins at Chicago and at Rochester to close out the season.

NYU and Brandeis also win.

BUBeaverFan · February 21, 2009, 07:47:53 AM

Tyler Nading had a huge night for the Bears. AT had a quiet 13. Rochester will come in Sunday for what they must feel is a must win situation if they are to have any chance of securing a bid to the tourney. AT needs 20 to get to 1000 in his career.

Gregory Sager · February 21, 2009, 02:48:38 PM

Chicago played outstanding defense in last night's 74-54 win over Rochester. The Maroons held the Yellowjackets to only .304 shooting from the field, a figure UR compounded by only hitting 15 of its 28 free throws. It was a back-and-forth game throughout the first half, as both teams had trouble getting into an offensive flow in the wake of great defense at either end of the floor. Chicago went into the intermission with a 29-25 lead, and it was still only a six-point game when the Maroons began to pull away at the 12-minute mark of the second half. But pull away they did, as the lead was comfortably into the twenties and Mike McGrath had a chance to empty his bench in garbage time.

Jake Pancratz had a terrific night in spite of foul trouble cutting into his minutes, as he hit all five bombs he launched and ended the night with 17 points. John Kinsella added 14 and Michael Sustarsic chipped in 10, while Tom Watson and Tom Williams contributed the bulk of the work in Chicago's 42-37 rebounding advantage by grabbing eight and seven caroms, respectively. Rochester sharpshooter Mike Chmielowiec led UR with 16, but it took him 15 shots to reach that number. I continue to be amazed by what a quick release he has, but for every contested trey that he turned into a swish he also threw up a badly-launched brick. I was very impressed by Rochester's young forwards, Roberson, Serle, and Novosel, all of whom appear to have bright futures in the UAA. I was much less impressed by Rochester's guards.

A win over Carnegie Mellon tomorrow would go a long way towards securing a first-division finish for the Maroons.