MBB: University Athletic Association

[uaaaficionado]

It looks like we may have some disagreement on Chicago and Carnegie Mellon.

Chicago
Chicago is the last UAA team I want to hype (I buy in to the rivalries), but I think this team will be better than last season, relative to the league, but there are certainly no guarantees.  I do think Jacobsen and Sustacek are every bit as good as Barthel, though much respect to Barthel for his UAA second team senior campaign.  They may be the biggest team in the league. Fenlon also had a great senior campaign, but his graduation leaves more for Karras and Baum.  Chicago needs a player like Skoko and they got him.

Carnegie Mellon
I'll have to think a little more about Carnegie Mellon, but points well taken...  Let's keep this conversation going.

Fenlon had a fantastic senior year scoring the ball (18.1ppg in UAA play) and it will be interesting to see if Karras can match that. For the three prior years, Fenlon's role was essentially just a spot up three point shooter - similar to how Karras has been for his past three seasons. When senior year came around he looked very strong, confident, athletic, and did a great job of getting to the free throw line. I'm not so sure Karras will have the same level of strength and athleticism to score inside the three point arc, but I do think he has the potential to shoot 40%+ from distance. I've always thought he's a better pure shooter, but not quite the same volume Fenlon gets it off.

Barthel came into his own as the season went on (14.8 in UAA play, 19.8ppg in their last 7 games of the conference season). I think he's much bigger and stronger than Jacobsen and Sustacek, and played with a lot of confidence in his game. Offensively, I don't think Karras, Jacobsen, Sustacek, and Baum will be able to fill the void that Fenlon and Barthel leave.

As far as Carnegie Mellon goes, despite a 3-11 record in UAA play last season, they return everyone but Ryan Maha (9.6ppg in UAA play). Howarth led the way with 16.7ppg in UAA play. All of the guys that they return weren't dependent on two stellar seniors to lead the way for them, which IMO gave them room to grow (Howarth is a perfect example of this). McNeil, Henry, and Suddeth all got experience playing important roles last season. While I think Ehland had a tough year, he's among the most experienced veterans in the league going into the season.

However to your point of ranking Chicago ahead, Carnegie Mellon was the worst 3 point shooting team in the league at 32.3% in league play. Outside of Maha, none of those guys were shooting it behind the arc and it certainly hurt their offensive production. I'm hoping to see Carnegie improve on their shooting from last season, in particular Howarth. If so, I think they really could be a 7-7 team in this league.

[WUPHF]

This will be an interesting subplot to follow throughout the season.

I definitely do not want to disparage Fenlon or Barthel as both had good careers and great senior campaigns, but here are a few last thoughts. 

Barthel was certainly bigger and stronger, but the league gets smaller this season in terms of returning players.  He definitely had a way of taking over a game.  I am not sure if Jacobsen or Sustacek does what Barthel did to, say NYU, but I think Chicago has to feel good about the front court.

Fenlon was better than anyone at getting off a shot and almost took more three pointers than Karras and Baum combined.  He scored a lot, but shot a lot.  I am not sure either will score 18 points per game, but I expect more production all around.

I am not sure how good Fenlon was at scoring inside the perimeter or getting to the line as his field goal attempts were almost entirely from the perimeter in games against the best teams last season.

You may be right...we will begin to find out in 20-21 days.

[uaaaficionado]

I also wanted to check, does anyone know where you would find SOS statistics? I am interested to see how each team's SOS compares going into these non-conference match ups.

[WUPHF]

Matt Snyder has the most interesting efficiency rankings as well as a match-up simulator: http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/

Massey is definitely worth a look: https://masseyratings.com

[WUPHF]

Brandeis has an updated roster: http://www.brandeisjudges.com/sports/mbkb/2018-19/roster

It looks like the only unexpected change was the loss of Semih Say, a freshman who played in 22 games last season.

I thought I had heard Latye Workman was coming back, but I removed him from my list from last week.  It looks like he is returning for his fourth year of eligibility.  This is good news for the Judges as Workman was a quality 29 minutes per game, 10 points, 8 rebounds forward.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I also wanted to check, does anyone know where you would find SOS statistics? I am interested to see how each team's SOS compares going into these non-conference match ups.

Which SOS numbers do you want? Legit NCAA SOS numbers? There is nothing to really look at until mid-January when there is at least enough data to start breaking down. There is no way to have that SOS number represent anything right now as it would all be based on last year's data and that's not exactly a fair representation.

[ADL70]

I understand that CWRU has an incoming big man, 6'10 265.  Another first-year big man has apparently decided to play baseball.

[Riley056]

https://athletics.case.edu/sports/mbkb/2018-19/roster

[WUPHF]

Holy moly that is a big man.

[ADL70]

https://athletics.case.edu/sports/mbkb/2018-19/roster

How I found it but it's not up officially yet.

https://www.ncsasports.org/mens-basketball-recruiting/pennsylvania/wexford/north-allegheny-senior-high-school/zach-johnson338

[WUPHF]

The UAA coaches poll has been released (first place votes in parenthesis):

Emory (6)
Rochester (2)
Washington University
Chicago
NYU
Case Western
Carnegie Mellon
Brandeis

So much for the suggestion that it will come a few days before or after the start of the season.

[ADL70]

https://athletics.case.edu/sports/mbkb/2018-19/roster

It has been updated since I checked it yesterday.  There are now ten incoming first year players.

Five juniors and four soph.

[uaaaficionado]

The UAA coaches poll has been released (first place votes in parenthesis):

Emory (6)
Rochester (2)
Washington University
Chicago
NYU
Case Western
Carnegie Mellon
Brandeis

So much for the suggestion that it will come a few days before or after the start of the season.

Awesome stuff - was this release on the UAA website?

I guess I may be thinking too highly of Carnegie Mellon this early..

[WUPHF]

It was released on WUSTL social media.

Don't give up on Carnegie Mellon just yet.

NYU has their roster posted: https://gonyuathletics.com/roster.aspx?path=mbball

I said that the league is getting a little smaller, but the Violets have added a 6-6 (225 lb) forward and a 6-8 (240 lb) center.

[ADL70]

And CWRU, in addition to the 6'9 or 10 C has two incoming 6'6 Fs, though they're not quite as big as 225.