MBB: University Athletic Association

[jaybird44]

WashU likewise has a very, verrrrrrry slim chance to win the UAA.  It's a two-stage process, and WashU needs to be best in both stages.

Stage 1:  WashU has to be 2-0 next weekend...Emory and Rochester EACH have to be 0-2...and Chicago has to split or go 0-2.  That would put WashU at 9-4, Emory & Rochester at 8-5, and Chicago at 8-5 or 7-6.

Stage 2:  WashU then defeats Chicago in the season finale to win the UAA outright at 10-4.

If the Bears end up in a tie with at least one of the other teams mentioned at season's end, their 0-2 record vs. Emory trips them up in the tie-breaker process.

The UAA opening loss at Chicago and the 2nd loss to Emory were equally damaging.  If WashU had been able to get one win from Emory, the top 4 teams at season's end could each be 1-1 vs. each other.  Then, WashU could've won the tiebreaker if it swept the bottom 4 teams in the conference standings.  If WashU would go 2-0 against Chicago, it could finish in a tie with the Maroons and then get the AQ.

I'm too far removed from my Probability & Statistics class as an undergrad at Mizzou, to figure out the exact odds for the Bears' slim chance.  A WashU professor would probably be able to figure it out, or if there is someone on the boards here that has that capability.

[WUPHF]

[jaybird44]

LOL

Drew Pasteur's analysis of Pool C possibles has been updated, and WashU has a 2% chance of getting an at-large bid.

[Gregory Sager]

You've still got one last resort left:

[WUPHF]

I declare fandom bankruptcy!

Honestly though, this has been a great season to be a Bears fan even if we will miss the postseason.

14-8 and 7-4 with a chance for three more wins.  This with a new coach and a team that returned only one player that averaged 20+ minutes per game and one player that averaged 10+ minutes per game.  The usual disclaimer...

Let's hope the Women's Basketball team, which seems poised to win the league outright this weekend, will host the first and second round.

[Gregory Sager]

This is a great time to be a Bears fan, even though this season's team will likely fall short of postseason play, because it's obvious that the near-term future of the program is so bright. There will be very high national expectations for Wash U next season, since the Bears are only losing their backup center from this season's team.

[WUPHF]

I agree, next year should be a great year to follow Washington University and to follow the league.

I said a few weeks ago that it would be a horse race between Emory and Washington University but I mistakenly thought Baum was a senior.  Chicago loses two key seniors but will not be far behind next year.

[ronk]

 Went out tonight to evaluate a prospect; learned by the end of the game that he was choosing Rochester.
He's Miles Gally  6-9  W/SF  Richard Montgomery High School  Rockville,MD. Can make 3s and FTs.

[WUPHF]

Went out tonight to evaluate a prospect; learned by the end of the game that he was choosing Rochester.
He's Miles Gally  6-9  W/SF  Richard Montgomery High School  Rockville, MD. Can make 3s and FTs.

Thanks for that post.  The last time you posted about a UAA-bound player, if I remember correctly, it was about Becca Clark-Callendar.  Wow, did she turn out to be a player.

[uaaaficionado]

With three games left to play, any thoughts on the UAA POY discussion? Pre-season I suggested Clamage, Williams, Nolan, and Howarth. Here's who I find to be the front runners now.

Most Likely
Ryan Clamage (Rochester)
Romin Williams (Emory)

Possibility
Matt Davet (Emory)
Jordan Baum (Chicago)
Justin Hardy (WashU)

Unlikely
Dom Cristiano (NYU)
Jack Nolan (WashU)
Zach Howarth (Carnegie Mellon)
Dominic Laravie (Chicago)
Corey Sherman (Brandeis)
Seth Henry (Carnegie Mellon)

In the past, UAA POY has been some combination of (1) elite scorer (2) all around stat stuffer (3) on a top 3 team and (4) a senior (there are exceptions). Certainly not an exact science to it as it's voted on by the opinions of coaches. Just my observation.

If Rochester wins the league it should be Clamage. If Emory wins the league, Williams should win it. Should there be a tie or Chicago/WashU find a way to win it, I'm not entirely sure. But I do like the idea of UAA POY coming from the championship team.

I found Sanders, Borst-Smith, Foster, Klimek, and DiBartolomeo to all be great picks for POY in years past. Despite his incredible season, I'm not so sure I agreed with Kupferberg winning POY in 2016 coming from a third place NYU team.

I hope Clamage and/or Williams can somehow squeeze into the All-American discussion as well.

[WUPHF]

I was seriously about to post on this and I am working on my first and second all-Association team.  It will be interesting to see with three new coaches, but I am thinking the front runners for Player of the Year are (in that order):

Clamage
Henry
Williams

I have Henry above Williams because he is a senior, but that may not matter.  Williams is so uniquely talented that I would expect him to lock up the honor for the next two seasons.

Hardy locked up Rookie of the Year a long time ago.

I have been thinking about the Defensive Player of the Year award and I have no idea, but I have a few players in mind from Chicago, Brandeis and Rochester.

[uaaaficionado]

I was seriously about to post on this and I am working on my first and second all-Association team.  It will be interesting to see with three new coaches, but I am thinking the front runners for Player of the Year are (in that order):

Clamage
Henry
Williams

I have Henry above Williams because he is a senior, but that may not matter.  Williams is so uniquely talented that I would expect him to lock up the honor for the next two seasons.

Hardy locked up Rookie of the Year a long time ago.

I have been thinking about the Defensive Player of the Year award and I have no idea, but I have a few players in mind from Chicago, Brandeis and Rochester.

Certainly agree with Hardy as ROY.

I just can't imagine Henry winning. If Carnegie can somehow beat Rochester and Emory this weekend followed up by a win vs. Case, they'd finish 8-6. But to your point, we have three new coaches in the league voting and have no idea what they may value as it pertains to the award.

[WUPHF]

I agree, I think Clamage has it locked up at this point.

No other player has played the role he has with the results Rochester has had.

Coaches of the year, by the way, seem rather easy: the team that wins it all.

[ronk]

Went out tonight to evaluate a prospect; learned by the end of the game that he was choosing Rochester.
He's Miles Gally  6-9  W/SF  Richard Montgomery High School  Rockville, MD. Can make 3s and FTs.

Thanks for that post.  The last time you posted about a UAA-bound player, if I remember correctly, it was about Becca Clark-Callendar.  Wow, did she turn out to be a player.

Yes, I did mention Becca but that's probably a miss on my part since i didn't feel strongly enough about her to lobby for her as a prospect(I have a high bar of performance or potential); haven't seen Wash U since
except for the NCAA regional 2 years ago when Scranton was there, so happy that it turned out well for her. Becca was impressive in her hoopsville interview recently which is more important.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The second week Regional Rankings have been released: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/men-regional-rankings-second