MBB: University Athletic Association

[WUPHF]

As for Rochester, maybe I'll wait until January 27 so I can get the full season as on demand.  That is good to know.

[deiscanton]

It looks like Edwards and Benjamin Pearce got the honors.

By the way, Dylan Lien was getting starts as a freshman.  You do have to go back a while to see him a potential all-UAA player, but then he lost his sophomore season due to Covid and has been a reserve more often than not ever since.  A quality player though.

Yes, I remember seeing that in the past rosters.  However, a lot of times, the question about any player is "what have you done for me lately?"   Potential is just that, potential, until it is realized.  Glad to see that Dylan Lien has finally broken through.  Better late than never.

[WUPHF]

Glad to see that Dylan Lien has finally broken through.  Better late than never.

True, true!

[deiscanton]

The new D3Hoops.com Top 25 men's basketball poll is out, and here are the rankings of the UAA men's teams in the poll this week:

#7-- Case Western Reserve-- 417 pts.

#9-- Rochester-- 409 pts.

#16-- Emory-- 242 pts.

NYU has dropped out of the top 25

RV-- NYU-- 61 pts.

RV-- Wash U-- 22 pts.

[deiscanton]

It looks like Edwards and Benjamin Pearce got the honors.

By the way, Dylan Lien was getting starts as a freshman.  You do have to go back a while to see him a potential all-UAA player, but then he lost his sophomore season due to Covid and has been a reserve more often than not ever since.  A quality player though.

Because of COVID-19, the 2020-21 year does not count.   You evaluate Dylan Lien as though this year is his athletic junior season.  Even though Dylan Lien can academically graduate this year, he still has 1 more year of college eligibility left after this season, of which he can take up to 2 years to complete.

[deiscanton]

Named to the D3Hoops.com Team of the Week for Week 7 (Games played Jan. 2-8, 2023):

Benjamin Pearce, Emory.

[WUPHF]

Because of COVID-19, the 2020-21 year does not count.   You evaluate Dylan Lien as though this year is his athletic junior season.  Even though Dylan Lien can academically graduate this year, he still has 1 more year of college eligibility left after this season, of which he can take up to 2 years to complete.

I am aware of the Covid-related flexibility to the eligibility requirements. 

Two players on my favorite team have taken advantage of the additional flexibility.

I would argue going 600 or more days without formal games or practices can best be described as a lost season though.

[deiscanton]

Because of COVID-19, the 2020-21 year does not count.   You evaluate Dylan Lien as though this year is his athletic junior season.  Even though Dylan Lien can academically graduate this year, he still has 1 more year of college eligibility left after this season, of which he can take up to 2 years to complete.

I am aware of the Covid-related flexibility to the eligibility requirements. 

Two players on my favorite team have taken advantage of the additional flexibility.

I would argue going 600 or more days without formal games or practices can best be described as a lost season though.

I would concur with you on that argument based on how it feels to the fans and the athletes.

[WUPHF]

And speaking of eligibility, Case Western Reserve hoping to get senior Cole Frilling back next year.  That would be big.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUOT3KwS_To

[deiscanton]

Reviewing the results from last week-- First, we review what the scoreline predictions from Snyder's efficiency ratings website on Round 1 were coming into game play last Saturday.   Then, the results.

Saturday January 7, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball games today courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's net efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning:  For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Carnegie Mellon at CWRU-- CWRU 84, Carnegie Mellon 78

CWRU has a 72% chance of winning and is a -6.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 79 possessions per team.

Over/under total is 161.5

2.)  NYU at Brandeis-- Brandeis 71, NYU 80

Brandeis has a 22% chance of winning and is a +8.5 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 70 possessions per team.

Over/under total is 151.0

3.)  Rochester at Emory-- Rochester 79, Emory 82

Emory has a 59% chance of winning and is a -2.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 78 possessions per team.

Over/under total is 161.5

4.)  UChicago at Wash U-- UChicago 55, Wash U 68

Wash U has a 88% chance of winning and is a -13 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 62 possessions per team.

Over/under total is 123.0

Results--

1.)  Case Western Reserve 74, Carnegie Mellon 69    CMU covers the +6.5 road underdog spread.

Final total of game was 143-- Under won that one.

CWRU had approx 73 possessions in the win-- Game tempo was a little slower than initally predicted.

2.)  Brandeis 81, NYU 61-- Home underdog won outright.

Final total of game was 142-- Under won that one.

Brandeis had approx 63 possessions in the win-- Game tempo was a little slower than initially predicted.

3.) Emory 87, Rochester 76--  Emory covered the 2.5 point home favorite spread.

Final game total was 163-- Over won that one.

Emory had approx 78 possessions in the win-- Game tempo went exactly as predicted.

4.)  Wash U 71, Chicago 54-- Wash U covered the 13 point home favorite spread.

Final game total was 125-- Over won that one.

Wash U had approx 62 possessions in the win-- Game tempo went exactly as predicted.

(Formula for calculating possessions-- Number of FGA - Number of offensive rebounds + Number of turnovers committed + (.475 X Number of FTA)).

[deiscanton]

Friday, January 13, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  CWRU at Rochester-- Rochester 83, CWRU 78

Rochester has a 68% chance to win this game, and is a -5.0 pt home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 72 possessions per team.

Over/under total is 160.5

2.)  Carnegie Mellon at Emory-- Emory 83, Carnegie Mellon 73

Emory has an 83% chance to win this game, and is a -10.5 pt home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 83 possessions per team.

Over/under total is 156.5

3.)  NYU at UChicago-- UChicago 65, NYU 77

UChicago has a 14% chance to win this game, and is a +12 pt. home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team.

Over/under total is 143.0

4.)  Brandeis at Wash U-- Wash U 68, Brandeis 61

Wash U has a 73% chance to win this game, and is a -6.5 pt. home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 65 possessions per team.

Over/under total is 129.0

[Greek Tragedy]

I watched D3 Datacast's last episode on YouTube and they were ranking the top 3 teams in each region, currently. I was surprised to see Brandeis #2 in Region 2. That must be an extremely weak region. Brandeis is 9-3. Rochester lead Region 3. NYU was 3rd in Region 4 and Emory was #2 in Region 6. Despite being 11-0, CWR didn't make the top 3 in Region 7. Those spots went to Mt. Union, JCU and Wooster. Wash U was nowhere to be found in Region 8 with the CCIW filling all 3 of those spots. Wash U's SOS was noted to be really low after playing a mostly SLIAC non-conference schedule.

[TheOsprey]

I watched D3 Datacast's last episode on YouTube and they were ranking the top 3 teams in each region, currently. I was surprised to see Brandeis #2 in Region 2. That must be an extremely weak region. Brandeis is 9-3. Rochester lead Region 3. NYU was 3rd in Region 4 and Emory was #2 in Region 6. Despite being 11-0, CWR didn't make the top 3 in Region 7. Those spots went to Mt. Union, JCU and Wooster. Wash U was nowhere to be found in Region 8 with the CCIW filling all 3 of those spots. Wash U's SOS was noted to be really low after playing a mostly SLIAC non-conference schedule.

Greek - don't get too wrapped up in computer projections and opinionated polls.  WashU will have a strong  SOS after league play.

[WUPHF]

I watched D3 Datacast's last episode on YouTube and they were ranking the top 3 teams in each region, currently. I was surprised to see Brandeis #2 in Region 2. That must be an extremely weak region. Brandeis is 9-3. Rochester lead Region 3. NYU was 3rd in Region 4 and Emory was #2 in Region 6. Despite being 11-0, CWR didn't make the top 3 in Region 7. Those spots went to Mt. Union, JCU and Wooster. Wash U was nowhere to be found in Region 8 with the CCIW filling all 3 of those spots. Wash U's SOS was noted to be really low after playing a mostly SLIAC non-conference schedule.

Is this a rhetorical comment?  Or do I need to remind you that in Division III basketball, the Midwest is best?  In most things for that matter...

[deiscanton]

Speaking of toughest schedules by OWP and cumulative OWP of the UAA teams, according to NCAA Stats, here they are going into today:

Link:  stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div

Set sport to Men's Basketball, set division to III, then click on Misc. Reports, then click on Toughest Schedule

This schedule report was created today at 9:02 AM Eastern, and includes games through last night:

1.)  Rochester-- OWP of past opposition is .687 (#2 in DIII)  (103-47)

OWP of future opposition is .771 (121-36)

OWP of cumulative opposition is .730 (224-83)

2.)  Emory-- OWP of past opposition is .631 (#12 in DIII) (106-62)

OWP of future opposition is .777 (122-35)

OWP of cumulative opposition is .702 (228-97)

3.)  Carnegie Mellon-- OWP of past opposition is .606 (#21 in DIII) (103-67)

OWP of future opposition is .795 (124-32)

OWP of cumulative opposition is .696 (227-99)

4.)  Brandeis-- OWP of past opposition is .523 (#143 in DIII) (91-83)

OWP of future opposition is .794 (123-32)

OWP of cumulative opposition is .650 (214-115)

5.)  U.Chicago-- OWP of past opposition is .497 (#202 in DIII) (80-81)

OWP of future opposition is .809 (127-30)

OWP of cumulative opposition is .651 (207-111)

6.)  NYU-- OWP of past opposition is .481 (#236 in DIII) (77-83)

OWP of future opposition is .769 (120-36)

OWP of cumulative oppostion is .623 (197-119)

7.)  Wash U-- OWP of past opposition is .476 (#245 in DIII ) (78-86)

OWP of future opposition is .796 (125-32)

OWP of cumulative opposition is .632 (203-118)

8.)  Case Western Reserve U-- OWP of past opposition is .393 (#393 in DIII) (55-85)

OWP of future opposition is .772 (122-36)

OWP of cumulative opposition is .594 (177-121)