MBB: University Athletic Association

[deiscanton]

Sunday, January 29, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  UChicago at Rochester

Rochester 73, UChicago 61

Rochester has an 86% chance to win this game, and is a -12.0 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 66 possessions per team

O/U total is 134.5

2.)  Wash U at Emory

Emory 73, Wash U 70

Emory has a 62% chance to win this game, and is a -3.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team.

O/U total is 143.5

3.)  Carnegie Mellon at Brandeis

Brandeis 72, Carnegie Mellon 68

Brandeis has a 63% chance to win this game, and is a -3.5 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team

O/U total is 139.5

4.)  CWRU at NYU

NYU 86, CWRU 78

NYU has a 77% chance to win this game, and is an -8.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 72 possessions per team

O/U total is 163.5

[deiscanton]

Well, it was really painful to see Brandeis's chances for a Pool C bid realistically come to an end on Friday with that incredible shooting night by CWRU (61/68/67 shooting split with 15 3 pointers made by the Spartans for a "91" spot on the scoreboard.)  The Brandeis men's team has never won the UAA Men's Basketball AQ in program history, either, so on Friday, that meant that postseason chances will most likely have to wait until next season.

Brandeis would have to go 7-1 the rest of the way to get a final winning percentage above .700.   The Judges would have to go 6-2 for a winning pct of .680.  Given the quality of the competition, I don't think that either scenario is likely, especially with 5 of the remaining 7 UAA games on the road after today.

Moreover, since the Brandeis Swimming and Diving Team booked the Napoli Trophy Room for the entire basketball doubleheader on Friday night so that they could have their sign making party for yesterday's Senior Day swimming event, there wasn't any private halftime space to just eat a protein bar and sip down a can of Coke Zero during the halftimes.

Oh well, I did enjoy my top sirloin steak lunch at the 99 Restaurant in Waltham earlier in the day.  Plus, the Brandeis MAD band (MAD stands for "Music and Dance" a/k/a the pep band) did not disappoint with their Friday performance.

I am starting to think that I would be better off on Fridays watching livestream and just going to the Sunday home games.  Today is Brandeis Alumni Family Basketball Day-- the first one since the 2019-2020 season.  I usually have a fun time on those days, and this one will be enjoyable too. 

[WUPHF]

Last weekend of the first half of the season. 

Emory leads at 4-1 with four other teams at 3-2 including Rochester, Carngie Mellon, Case Western Reserve and Brandeis.

I predict that the margin of error is so slim that we will lose a team or two from the championship chase by Sunday late afternoon.

I would say that we lost Brandeis with the loss today against Carnegie Mellon.

[deiscanton]

Last weekend of the first half of the season. 

Emory leads at 4-1 with four other teams at 3-2 including Rochester, Carngie Mellon, Case Western Reserve and Brandeis.

I predict that the margin of error is so slim that we will lose a team or two from the championship chase by Sunday late afternoon.

I would say that we lost Brandeis with the loss today against Carnegie Mellon.

I would say that Brandeis's chances for a Pool C (or any other bid) were realistically lost on Friday, but the Sunday loss to Carnegie Mellon just confirmed it.

The catering spread wasn't bad though..... There were chicken tenders in the spread-- Kosher food as well. (What would a Brandeis alumni event be without a kosher entree or two?)  Also, the Brandeis men's basketball team did sign autographs for the kids after the game.

[WUPHF]

Did Ethan Edwards get injured on Friday?  He played 8 minutes on Friday and did not play today.  Those results may look VERY different otherwise.

[deiscanton]

Reviewing the results from today-- first, here is what the scoreline predictions were coming into today's games---

Sunday, January 29, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  UChicago at Rochester

Rochester 73, UChicago 61

Rochester has an 86% chance to win this game, and is a -12.0 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 66 possessions per team

O/U total is 134.5

2.)  Wash U at Emory

Emory 73, Wash U 70

Emory has a 62% chance to win this game, and is a -3.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team.

O/U total is 143.5

3.)  Carnegie Mellon at Brandeis

Brandeis 72, Carnegie Mellon 68

Brandeis has a 63% chance to win this game, and is a -3.5 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team

O/U total is 139.5

4.)  CWRU at NYU

NYU 86, CWRU 78

NYU has a 77% chance to win this game, and is an -8.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 72 possessions per team

O/U total is 163.5

Here are the final scores from today-- Home team listed first

1.)  Rochester 72, UChicago 71 (OT).  Game was tied 59-59 at end of regulation.  Road underdog covered the spread.

Rochester had 76 possessions in the win-- 68 of those were in regulation.  Game tempo was as predicted.

Game total was 143-- Over wins that one.

2.)  Emory 69, Wash U 72-- Road underdog won outright.

Wash U had 74 possessions in the win-- Game tempo was as predicted.

Game total was 141-- Under wins that one.

3.)  Brandeis 64, Carnegie Mellon 65-- Road underdog won outright.

Carnegie Mellon had 66 possessions in the win--Game played slower than predicted.

Game total was 129-- Under wins that one.

4.)  NYU 82, CWRU 88-- Road underdog won outright.

CWRU had 80 possessions in the win-- Game tempo played quicker than predicted.

Game total was 170-- Over wins that one.

[deiscanton]

Did Ethan Edwards get injured on Friday?  He played 8 minutes on Friday and did not play today.  Those results may look VERY different otherwise.

He may have gotten injured on Friday, but I did not notice it live or on the short time that I had to view the game replay on Saturday morning.  The absence of Ethan Edwards from the game is probably a game changer.

[blue_jays]

UAA looking overrated right now, these top teams don't actually look that impressive. At the turn, UChicago should have beaten Emory and Brandeis and probably Rochester as well. The only team that has looked like a legit top team against the Maroons was WashU. The Maroons are playing pretty well all told, which is why they keep finding themselves going down to the last minute in low-scoring affairs against almost everyone in the league. But I have yet to see a team that I'd be scared of in the postseason. The league has a lot of parity, but no Final 4 contenders.

[deiscanton]

UAA looking overrated right now, these top teams don't actually look that impressive. At the turn, UChicago should have beaten Emory and Brandeis and probably Rochester as well. The only team that has looked like a legit top team against the Maroons was WashU. The Maroons are playing pretty well all told, which is why they keep finding themselves going down to the last minute in low-scoring affairs against almost everyone in the league. But I have yet to see a team that I'd be scared of in the postseason. The league has a lot of parity, but no Final 4 contenders.

Okay, do you see any UAA teams in the Sweet 16, or do they all lose on the first weekend of the tournament, in your view?  To be honest, I am not sure that Randolph-Macon will dominate the DIII tournament again like they did last year, either.  My view of the UAA is just enjoy the ride, no matter what happens.

[WUPHF]

UAA looking overrated right now, these top teams don't actually look that impressive. At the turn, UChicago should have beaten Emory and Brandeis and probably Rochester as well. The only team that has looked like a legit top team against the Maroons was WashU. The Maroons are playing pretty well all told, which is why they keep finding themselves going down to the last minute in low-scoring affairs against almost everyone in the league. But I have yet to see a team that I'd be scared of in the postseason. The league has a lot of parity, but no Final 4 contenders.

I am not sure what it means to be overrated in 2022-2023.

The computers all have the UAA as the best league in Division III thanks to the depth (no league comes close top to bottom) but the top is arguably not as high as usual.

I know Rochester was seen as a potential Final Four team but they have faltered even at full strength.

I guess it all comes down to what you are looking for when you evaluate a league.

[E.115]

Yeah the league is weirdly balanced this year.  CWRU was up by as much as 25 in their win over WashU ... and then go on to get beat by UChicago. 

I'd say several of these teams have a chance to get hot in the tournament, as whoever gets into the tournament will certainly come in battled tested and having experienced several league losses / overcoming adversity...i.e. underdogs.

[deiscanton]

From the UAA stats, here are the net efficiency ratings of the UAA teams in UAA games only through 7 UAA games.

Net efficiency vs UAA competition only is per 100 possessions.

1.)  Wash U-- +5.2
2.)  Emory-- +2.4
3.)  Rochester-- +1.8
4.)  CWRU-- +1.2
5.)  Carnegie Mellon-- +0.3
6.)  Brandeis-- -1.1
7.)  UChicago-- -5.2
8.)  NYU-- -5.3

From the most recent run of the Snyder efficiency ratings (1/29/23--5:04 PM Eastern), here are the overall net efficiency ratings of the UAA teams, courtesy of;

http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

1.)  NYU-- +24.1  (#12 in DIII)
2.)  Wash U-- +21.6 (#21 in DIII)
3.)  Emory -- +20.6  (#22 in DIII)
4.)  Rochester-- +20.0 (#25 in DIII)
5.)  CWRU-- +19.2 (#29 in DIII)
6.)  Carnegie Mellon-- +15.1 (#54 in DIII)
7.)  Brandeis-- +14.4 (#61 in DiII)
8.)  UChicago-- +8.5 (#164 in DIII)

[blue_jays]

UAA looking overrated right now, these top teams don't actually look that impressive. At the turn, UChicago should have beaten Emory and Brandeis and probably Rochester as well. The only team that has looked like a legit top team against the Maroons was WashU. The Maroons are playing pretty well all told, which is why they keep finding themselves going down to the last minute in low-scoring affairs against almost everyone in the league. But I have yet to see a team that I'd be scared of in the postseason. The league has a lot of parity, but no Final 4 contenders.

I am not sure what it means to be overrated in 2022-2023.

The computers all have the UAA as the best league in Division III thanks to the depth (no league comes close top to bottom) but the top is arguably not as high as usual.

I know Rochester was seen as a potential Final Four team but they have faltered even at full strength.

I guess it all comes down to what you are looking for when you evaluate a league.

The UAA parity is why it's rated high, as there are no bad teams and a majority of good-to-very-good teams. But there are no "great" teams in this bunch, and the top contenders I've seen look shaky. The star power is not there either, no dominating players that we're used to seeing (I'd say Spencer Freedman is the best I've seen so far). So I say overrated because just being a balanced league doesn't mean postseason success. The UAA has underperformed in the tournament as of late compared to expectations. Sure, at least 1 team will get to Sweet 16 probably due to the bracket playing to their favor. But I don't see deep runs in the cards.

[y_jack_lok]

UAA looking overrated right now, these top teams don't actually look that impressive. At the turn, UChicago should have beaten Emory and Brandeis and probably Rochester as well. The only team that has looked like a legit top team against the Maroons was WashU. The Maroons are playing pretty well all told, which is why they keep finding themselves going down to the last minute in low-scoring affairs against almost everyone in the league. But I have yet to see a team that I'd be scared of in the postseason. The league has a lot of parity, but no Final 4 contenders.

Okay, do you see any UAA teams in the Sweet 16, or do they all lose on the first weekend of the tournament, in your view?  To be honest, I am not sure that Randolph-Macon will dominate the DIII tournament again like they did last year, either.  My view of the UAA is just enjoy the ride, no matter what happens.

Randolph-Macon graduated four players from last year's team. One (D3hoops.com POY Buzz Anthony) was a five year starter ( including the short COVID season) and the other three started at various points in their careers, including games last season. Those three combined to average about 15 minutes each in '21-22. Three regular starters from last season (two seniors and a junior) start again this season, along with a junior and a freshman. The bulk of the minutes played by non-starters goes to three freshmen, with most other minutes consumed by a sophomore and junior. So you're correct to doubt that R-MC can do in the '23 tournament what they did in '22. I don't think anyone expected that kind of dominance last season, either. I certainly didn't and I follow R-MC closely. It appears that the tournament will be much more wide open this season. There are several UAA teams that could do well. But there might be a surprise this time around, like there was in the recent season when Nebraska Wesleyan won it all.

[WUPHF]

The UAA parity is why it's rated high, as there are no bad teams and a majority of good-to-very-good teams. But there are no "great" teams in this bunch, and the top contenders I've seen look shaky.

This is exactly what I was saying when I said that they are very strong top to bottom, but that the top teams are not as high as usual.

Parity is great, but it does not mean much unless the results are there.  The UAA was something like 50-12 heading in to the conference play.  I do not remember the number, but it was crazy high.

The star power is not there either, no dominating players that we're used to seeing (I'd say Spencer Freedman is the best I've seen so far).

Are you watching many games?  Many teams are younger than usual in terms of class or experience, but there are some very good players in the league.

The UAA has underperformed in the tournament as of late compared to expectations. Sure, at least 1 team will get to Sweet 16 probably due to the bracket playing to their favor. But I don't see deep runs in the cards.

I know you are answering a question, but obviously, past seasons are not going to be useful in predicting the next postseason results, as you know.