MBB: University Athletic Association

[deiscanton]

As far as my posting Matt Snyder's net efficiency handicapping lines, I am doing so this season because I seem to have a bit more trust in that system than in posting what the Massey ratings say about the matchups.   Plus, with the fact that Massachusetts just introduced legal sports betting last week, it just seemed to be fun to just post some info on lines this year, for entertainment purposes only and for the amusement of the readers.  Your mileage may vary on this. 

That being said, the net efficiency ratings going into UAA competition were very high on NYU, as well as NYU seeming to justify a feeling that maybe this year would end up a little bit differently for the Violets than it has for all the other previous years since the Coles Center closed for good in February, 2016.  No matter what happens, NYU will still have the Cregger Invitational winner's trophy for their trophy case as a memento of this season.  I don't know if NYU would have had a better UAA season this year had a pipe in the basement of the new Paulson Center not burst, but unfortunately, 2-7 through 9 UAA games is 2-7 through 9 UAA games.

An interesting observation that I have this year on NYU is that NYU has only won 1 UAA home game so far this season, and with 3 UAA home games at the Brooklyn Athletic Facility still left to play, I would be surprised if NYU won more than 1 additional home game.  This is despite the fact that Matt Snyder's net efficiency handicapping system had NYU as home favorites in practically all of their UAA games in Brooklyn so far this season.  Since the Coles Center closed back in February 2016, the NYU men have not won more than 2 home UAA games in a single season post Coles Center.

[WUPHF]

Lots to think about regarding the all-Association team.

Just thinking about the 15-16 players that will land on the first and second team (the honorable mention honors are cool, but).

There are three players coming in from the bottom three teams that are a lock in my mind.  Hopkins, Harris and Freedman.

Rochester has a case for two players in Algier and Gang.

Every other team has a case for three players in my opinion.

My prediction is that the coaches will try to balance out the teams as much as possible given the parity and reward those who are graduating to the extent possible.  That seems to happen most season, but maybe more so this season.

[deiscanton]

So far this season, here are the players who have won at least one UAA Athlete of the Week honor in men's basketball:

1.)  Toby Harris, Brandeis-- 3 times overall, 1 time in UAA play. (Nov. 14 and Dec. 3, 2022, and January 23, 2023)

2.)  Kevin Sax, Carnegie Mellon-- November 21, 2022
3.)  Ryan Algier, Rochester-- November 21, 2022
4.)  Justin Allen, Carnegie Mellon-- November 28, 2022
5.)  Zay Freeney, NYU-- November 28, 2022
6.)  Cinque Stephens, NYU-- December 10, 2022
7.)  RJ Holmes, Carnegie Mellon-- January 3, 2023
8.)  Ethan Edwards, Brandeis-- January 10, 2023
9.)  Benjamin Pearce, Emory-- January 10, 2023
10.) Matt Wiele, Rochester-- January 17, 2023
11.) Mason Johnson, Emory-- January 30, 2023

[WUPHF]

Thanks for posting that @deiscanton.

I think the players of the week awards points to an interesting challenge that we may not have seen as much lately.

The coaches are going to have to consider what a player means to the team even when they do not have the usual metrics to back it up.

[deiscanton]

So far this season, here are the players who have won at least one UAA Athlete of the Week honor in men's basketball:

1.)  Toby Harris, Brandeis-- 3 times overall, 1 time in UAA play. (Nov. 14 and Dec. 3, 2022, and January 23, 2023)

2.)  Kevin Sax, Carnegie Mellon-- November 21, 2022
3.)  Ryan Algier, Rochester-- November 21, 2022
4.)  Justin Allen, Carnegie Mellon-- November 28, 2022
5.)  Zay Freeney, NYU-- November 28, 2022
6.)  Cinque Stephens, NYU-- December 10, 2022
7.)  RJ Holmes, Carnegie Mellon-- January 3, 2023
8.)  Ethan Edwards, Brandeis-- January 10, 2023
9.)  Benjamin Pearce, Emory-- January 10, 2023
10.) Matt Wiele, Rochester-- January 17, 2023
11.) Mason Johnson, Emory-- January 30, 2023

Newest addition to the list:

12.)  Cole Frilling, CWRU-- February 6, 2023

[Greek Tragedy]

I don't follow this league was closely as you guys, but I'm surprised Frilling hasn't won it before.

[deiscanton]

I don't follow this league was closely as you guys, but I'm surprised Frilling hasn't won it before.

Cole Frilling had been named to the D3Hoops.com Team of the Week earlier this season.

He is one of only 5 UAA men's basketball players to be named to the D3Hoops.com Team of the Week this season--

The following players, in order, have been named to the D3Hoops.com Team of the Week this season:

Week 1-- Cole Frilling, CWRU
Week 2-- Ryan Algier, Rochester
Week 6-- Spencer Freedman, NYU
Week 7-- Benjamin Pearce, Emory
Week 8-- Ethan Edwards, Brandeis

[deiscanton]

BTW, there is a new docuseries on this season's NYU men's basketball team that Sebastian Carrillo is producing and it just started on his Youtube channel.   

The name of Carrillo's new docuseries is Violet World, and the first episode "Fresh Start" is out on Youtube.

Each episode is slated to be about 10 minutes long. In the first episode, we get introduced to assistant coach Ethan Feldman, head coach Dave Klatsky, Spencer Freedman, and Michael Savarino-- just in case you don't already know who they are.

The first episode also covers the NYU vs Old Westbury game from Brooklyn Athletic Facility earlier this season.   Looking at the Brooklyn Athletic Facility, the court most reminds me of an above ground version of the Emerson College basketball court in Boston.   The Brooklyn Athletic Facility seats about 180 people, and the Brown/Plofker Gym (originally known as the Piano Row Gym) at Emerson seats about 200 people.  Both courts are excellent courts to watch on video stream, but not so much attending a game in-person (unless of course, you are watching the game from the skyboxes at both facilities.)

I am looking forward to future episodes of this docuseries.

[deiscanton]

Alphabetical "rankings" are out for Week 1

6 UAA men's basketball teams are on the alphabetical rankings list:

Region III-- Rochester
Region IV-- NYU
Region VI-- Emory
Region VII-- CWRU, Carnegie Mellon
Region VIII-- Wash U

[deiscanton]

Friday, February 10, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Rochester at CWRU

CWRU 84, Rochester 79

CWRU has a 68% chance to win this game, and is a -5.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team

O/U total is 162.5

2.)  Emory at Carnegie Mellon

Carnegie Mellon 75, Emory 75-- Game is predicted to go to overtime.

Carnegie Mellon has a 49% chance to win this game in regulation, and is a +0.5 home underdog.  To win/lose against the spread in this game, the result must happen in regulation.-- The result is a push if the game heads into overtime.

Predicted game tempo is 80 possessions per team. Regulation only

O/U total is 150.0-- Regulation only

3.)  UChicago at NYU

NYU 77, UChicago 65

NYU has an 87% chance to win this game, and is a -12.0 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team

O/U total is 142.0

4.)  Wash U at Brandeis

Brandeis 63, Wash U 66

Brandeis has a 40% chance to win this game, and is a +2.5 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 64 possessions per team

O/U total is 129.5

[deiscanton]

Reviewing the results from this evening.  First, we recap what the daily score predictions were coming into the evening.  Then, we take a look at the actual results.

Friday, February 10, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Rochester at CWRU

CWRU 84, Rochester 79

CWRU has a 68% chance to win this game, and is a -5.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team

O/U total is 162.5

2.)  Emory at Carnegie Mellon

Carnegie Mellon 75, Emory 75-- Game is predicted to go to overtime.

Carnegie Mellon has a 49% chance to win this game in regulation, and is a +0.5 home underdog.  To win/lose against the spread in this game, the result must happen in regulation.-- The result is a push if the game heads into overtime.

Predicted game tempo is 80 possessions per team. Regulation only

O/U total is 150.0-- Regulation only

3.)  UChicago at NYU

NYU 77, UChicago 65

NYU has an 87% chance to win this game, and is a -12.0 point home favorite

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team

O/U total is 142.0

4.)  Wash U at Brandeis

Brandeis 63, Wash U 66

Brandeis has a 40% chance to win this game, and is a +2.5 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 64 possessions per team

O/U total is 129.5

Results from this evening:  (Home team listed first)

1.)  CWRU 90, Rochester 87 (OT)-- Rochester covered as road underdog.

CWRU had 80 possessions in the win in a 45 minute game.  7 of those possessions came in the overtime period, so CWRU had approx 73 possessions in regulation.

Game total is 187-- Over won that one.

2.)  Carnegie Mellon 63, Emory 60-- Carnegie Mellon won outright in regulation as home underdog.

Carnegie Mellon had 73 possessions in the win.

Game total is 123--Under won that one.

3.)  NYU 80, UChicago 61-- NYU covers easily as home favorite.

NYU had 61 possessions in the win.

Game total is 141-- Under won that one.

4.)  Brandeis 52, Wash U 56-- Wash U covers as road favorite.

Wash U had 61 possessions in the win.

Game total is 108-- Under won that one.

[deiscanton]

Sunday, February 12, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Rochester at Carnegie Mellon

Carnegie Mellon 74, Rochester 72

Carnegie Mellon has a 59% chance to win this game, and is a -2.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 75 possessions per team

O/U total is 146.0

2.)  Emory at CWRU

CWRU 84, Emory 82

CWRU has a 59% chance to win this game in regulation, and is a -2.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 78 possessions per team.

O/U total is 166.5

3.)  Wash U at NYU

NYU 72, Wash U 68

NYU has an 66% chance to win this game, and is a -4.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team

O/U total is 140.5

4.)  UChicago at Brandeis

Brandeis 68, UChicago 62

Brandeis has a 69% chance to win this game, and is a -5.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 64 possessions per team

O/U total is 130.0

[deiscanton]

Reviewing the results from today.  First, a recap of the daily predicted scorelines going into the contests.   Then, the results.  Tonight, the results will be posted with the winning team's score first, regardless of whether or not the winner was the home team or the away team

Sunday, February 12, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Rochester at Carnegie Mellon

Carnegie Mellon 74, Rochester 72

Carnegie Mellon has a 59% chance to win this game, and is a -2.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 75 possessions per team

O/U total is 146.0

2.)  Emory at CWRU

CWRU 84, Emory 82

CWRU has a 59% chance to win this game in regulation, and is a -2.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 78 possessions per team.

O/U total is 166.5

3.)  Wash U at NYU

NYU 72, Wash U 68

NYU has an 66% chance to win this game, and is a -4.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team

O/U total is 140.5

4.)  UChicago at Brandeis

Brandeis 68, UChicago 62

Brandeis has a 69% chance to win this game, and is a -5.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 64 possessions per team

O/U total is 130.0

The results from today-- Winning score first

1.)  Rochester 82, Carnegie Mellon 78-- Road underdog won outright.

Rochester had 68 possessions in the win.

Game total is 160-- Over wins this one.

2.)  CWRU 102, Emory 75-- CWRU easily covers the -2.5 point home favorite spread.

CWRU had 71 possessions in the win and hit 18 of 34 from 3 point range.

Game total is 177-- Over wins this one.

3.)  NYU 65, Wash U 52-- NYU easily covers the -4.5 point home favorite spread.

NYU had 64 possessions in the win.

Game total is 117-- Under wins this one.

4.)  Brandeis 58, UChicago 52-- Brandeis covers the -5.5 point home favorite spread.

Brandeis had 64 possessions in the win.

Game total is 110-- Under wins this one.

[deiscanton]

With 3 games left to play, CWRU and Wash U are currently tied for first place in the UAA at 8-3 in UAA play for each team.

Next Friday night, Feb. 17, the two co-leaders will meet at the Wash U Field House in St. Louis to break this tie.

CWRU currently has the advantage for the AQ due to their win in Cleveland earlier this season over Wash U. (First tiebreaker).

[deiscanton]

Here is other info regarding CWRU and Wash U in case Wash U defeats CWRU on Friday, yet both teams go on to finish 10-4 in the UAA.

Both CWRU and Wash U are UAA co-leaders right now at 8-3 in the UAA, but CWRU has a 1-0 lead vs Wash U in their series, with Wash U hosting CWRU on Friday night.

Results between co-leaders and subsequent teams in the standings in descending order until the tie is broken.

Current third place team is Carnegie Mellon.  CWRU is 1-0 vs Carnegie Mellon, while Wash U is 0-1 vs CMU.

Current fourth place team is Emory.  CWRU finished 1-1 vs Emory, while Wash U finished 2-0 vs Emory.

Current fifth place team is Rochester.  CWRU finished 1-1 vs Rochester, while Wash U finished 2-0 vs Rochester.

Tied for sixth are NYU and Brandeis.  CWRU finished 4-0 vs these teams, while Wash U finished 3-1 vs these teams.

Current last place team is UChicago.  CWRU is 0-1 vs UChicago, while Wash U is 1-0 vs UChicago.

Tiebreaker #3-- Better road record in UAA conference games only.

CWRU is 2-2 in UAA road play, while Wash U is 3-3 in UAA road play.