MBB: University Athletic Association

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So far this season, here are the players who have won at least one UAA Athlete of the Week honor in men's basketball:

1.)  Toby Harris, Brandeis-- 3 times overall, 1 time in UAA play. (Nov. 14 and Dec. 3, 2022, and January 23, 2023)

2.)  Kevin Sax, Carnegie Mellon-- November 21, 2022
3.)  Ryan Algier, Rochester-- November 21, 2022
4.)  Justin Allen, Carnegie Mellon-- November 28, 2022
5.)  Zay Freeney, NYU-- November 28, 2022
6.)  Cinque Stephens, NYU-- December 10, 2022
7.)  RJ Holmes, Carnegie Mellon-- January 3, 2023
8.)  Ethan Edwards, Brandeis-- January 10, 2023
9.)  Benjamin Pearce, Emory-- January 10, 2023
10.) Matt Wiele, Rochester-- January 17, 2023
11.) Mason Johnson, Emory-- January 30, 2023
12.) Cole Frilling, CWRU-- February 6, 2023

Newest addition to the list:

13.)  Mitch Prendergast, CWRU-- February 13, 2023

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I don't follow this league was closely as you guys, but I'm surprised Frilling hasn't won it before.

Cole Frilling had been named to the D3Hoops.com Team of the Week earlier this season.

He is one of only 5 UAA men's basketball players to be named to the D3Hoops.com Team of the Week this season--

The following players, in order, have been named to the D3Hoops.com Team of the Week this season:

Week 1-- Cole Frilling, CWRU
Week 2-- Ryan Algier, Rochester
Week 6-- Spencer Freedman, NYU
Week 7-- Benjamin Pearce, Emory
Week 8-- Ethan Edwards, Brandeis

Newest addition to the list:

Week 12-- Mitch Prendergast, CWRU

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Congratulations also go out this week to CWRU head men's basketball coach Todd McGuinness on earning this week's Hoopdirt.com National DIII Men's Basketball Coach of the Week honors.

This is the third time in his career that Coach McGuinness has been named as the Hoopdirt.com National DIII Men's Basketball Coach of the Week.  The other two times came in the 2017-18 and 2021-22 campaigns.

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Regional rankings for Week 2 on the men's side are out:

d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2023/men-regional-rankings-first

Rochester is #2 in Region III
NYU is #4 in Region IV
Emory is #5 in Region VI
CWRU is #3 and Carnegie Mellon is #4 in Region VII
Wash U is #2 in Region VIII

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Friday, February 17, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Brandeis at Rochester

Rochester 75, Brandeis 68

Rochester has a 73% chance to win this game, and is a -6.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 68 possessions per team

O/U total is 143.0

2.)  NYU at Emory

Emory 80, NYU 80-- Game is predicted to go to overtime.

Emory has a 49% chance to win this game in regulation, and is a +0.5 home underdog.  To win/lose against the spread in this game, the result must happen in regulation.-- The result is a push if the game heads into overtime.

Predicted game tempo is 75 possessions per team. Regulation only

O/U total is 159.5-- Regulation only

3.)  Carnegie Mellon at UChicago

UChicago 65. Carnegie Mellon 67

UChicago has an 43% chance to win this game, and is a +2.0 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 70 possessions per team

O/U total is 132.5

4.)  CWRU at Wash U

Wash U 74, CWRU 70

Wash U has a 62% chance to win this game, and is a -3.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 69 possessions per team

O/U total is 144.5

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Halftime in the 7:30 PM Eastern tip games--

NYU 40, Emory 34 in Atlanta, GA

Rochester 49, Brandeis 34 in Rochester, NY

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Finals in the 7:30 PM Eastern tip games--

NYU 88, Emory 82 in Atlanta, GA--

NYU Improves to 5-7 in the UAA, 16-7 overall.

Emory drops to 6-6 in the UAA, 15-8 overall.

Rochester 79, Brandeis 65 in Rochester, NY--

Rochester improves to 6-6 in the UAA, 16-7 overall.

Brandeis drops to 4-8 in the UAA, 12-11 overall.

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Halftime in the Midwest games--

Wash U 36, CWRU 35 in St. Louis, MO.  Live stats down at the moment, but I have this score at halftime courtesy of the livestream.

Carnegie Mellon 38, UChicago 37 in Chicago, IL.

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Game update--

CWRU 72, Wash U 72 43 seconds left in regulation.

Coming out of the Wash U timeout, Kevin Davet of Wash U lays it in to give Wash U a 74-72 lead with 35.1 seconds left.   It will be CWRU ball coming out of a timeout.

On the CWRU possession, Mitch Prendergast hits a 3 to give CWRU a 75-74 lead with about 18.9 seconds left.  Wash U ball coming out of this next timeout.

Final score:  CWRU 75, Wash U 74

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Finals in the Midwest games--

CWRU 75, Wash U 74

CWRU takes sole possession of first place in the UAA-- improves to 9-3 in the UAA, 19-3 overall.  CWRU has a 1 game lead over Wash U with 2 games to play, and has the AQ advantage on the first tiebreaker by virtue of sweeping the series vs Wash U, 2-0.   Magic number to clinch the AQ on the tiebreaker for CWRU is now 1, with a win on Sunday at UChicago being enough to clinch the AQ for CWRU for their first ever Pool A UAA bid in program history.  Magic number is 1 for CWRU to earn at least a UAA co-championship and 2 for a sole UAA men's basketball championship title.

Addendum:  If CWRU and Carnegie Mellon were to end up tied for first place in the standings after Feb. 25 and be declared UAA co-champions, either by themselves, or via a 3 way tie with Wash U at 9-5 in the UAA, CWRU still currently has a tiebreaker advantage for the AQ due to results vs current sixth place team NYU.  CWRU finished 2-0 vs NYU, while Carnegie Mellon split 1-1 vs NYU.  Since Emory and Rochester are currently tied for fourth place in the UAA, both CWRU and Carnegie Mellon are tied 2-2 vs Emory and Rochester as a group.   If Emory were to finish in sole possession of fourth place, ahead of both Rochester and NYU in the standings, Carnegie Mellon would have the tiebreaker advantage over CWRU by virtue of Carnegie Mellon's 2-0 sweep vs Emory vs CWRU's 1-1 season split vs the Eagles.

Wash U drops to 8-4 in the UAA, 17-6 overall--now in second place in the UAA.

UChicago 85, Carnegie Mellon 71

UChicago improves to 3-9 in the UAA, 10-13 overall.

Carnegie Mellon drops to 7-5 in the UAA, 15-8 overall, and remain in third place in the UAA-- 2 games back of CWRU with 2 games to play.

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Friday, February 17, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Brandeis at Rochester

Rochester 75, Brandeis 68

Rochester has a 73% chance to win this game, and is a -6.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 68 possessions per team

O/U total is 143.0

2.)  NYU at Emory

Emory 80, NYU 80-- Game is predicted to go to overtime.

Emory has a 49% chance to win this game in regulation, and is a +0.5 home underdog.  To win/lose against the spread in this game, the result must happen in regulation.-- The result is a push if the game heads into overtime.

Predicted game tempo is 75 possessions per team. Regulation only

O/U total is 159.5-- Regulation only

3.)  Carnegie Mellon at UChicago

UChicago 65. Carnegie Mellon 67

UChicago has an 43% chance to win this game, and is a +2.0 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 70 possessions per team

O/U total is 132.5

4.)  CWRU at Wash U

Wash U 74, CWRU 70

Wash U has a 62% chance to win this game, and is a -3.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 69 possessions per team

O/U total is 144.5

Reviewing the results from this round-- Winner's score first:

1.)  NYU 88, Emory 82-- NYU covered the -0.5 point road favorite spread.  Game ended in regulation.

NYU had 69 possessions in the win-- Game tempo a little slower than predicted.

Game total is 170-- Over won that one.

2.)  Rochester 79, Brandeis 65-- Rochester easily covers the spread.

Rochester had 61 possessions in the win-- Game tempo slower than predicted.

Game total is 144-- Over won that one.

3.)  UChicago 85, Carnegie Mellon 71-- UChicago won the game outright as road underdog.

UChicago had 64 possessions in the win-- Game tempo slower than predicted.

Game total is 156-- Over won that one.

4.)  CWRU 75, Wash U 74-- CWRU won the game outright against the spread.

CWRU had 68 possessions in the win-- Game tempo about as predicted.

Game total is 149-- Over won that one.

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Sunday, February 19, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  NYU at Rochester

Rochester 78, NYU 79

Rochester has a 47% chance to win this game, and is a +1.0 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 70 possessions per team

O/U total is 156.5

2.)  Brandeis at Emory

Emory 77, Brandeis 69

Emory has a 77% chance to win this game in regulation, and is an -8.0 point home favorite. 

Predicted game tempo is 72 possessions per team.

O/U total is 145.5

3.)  CWRU at UChicago

UChicago 72, CWRU 76

UChicago has an 33% chance to win this game, and is a +5.0 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 68 possessions per team

O/U total is 148.0

4.)  Carnegie Mellon at Wash U

Wash U 68, Carnegie Mellon 61

Wash U has a 75% chance to win this game, and is a -7.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 71 possessions per team

O/U total is 130.5

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Here are my picks right now for the following honors in the UAA;--

Player of the Year:  Mitch Prendergast, CWRU  (although Cole Frilling of CWRU finishes a close second in my picks behind Mitch).

Rookie of the Year:  Benjamin Pearce, Emory

Defensive Player of the Year: I could have gone with Ross Gang of Rochester for his leading the UAA in steals per game if Rochester was higher in the standings.   

CWRU has 2 candidates for the honor-- Cole Frilling is one of the leaders in the UAA in defensive rebounds per game.

However, my pick for DPOY is Umar Rashid of CWRU for his blocked shots stat line in UAA play-- currently leading the UAA at 1.9 blocked shots per UAA game.

Coaching Staff of the Year:  Case Western Reserve University (Todd McGuinness, Bryan Wickliffe, Brian Murphy)

Today, Case Western Reserve University can clinch the University Athletic Association's Pool A/AQ bid to the NCAA DIII Men's Basketball Tournament for the first time in program history, and an AQ for the first time in the modern era to the NCAA DIII Men's Basketball tournament (as well as the first time under the CWRU Spartan logo), with a win at the Ratner Center this afternoon over the University of Chicago.

Drew Pasteur currently gives CWRU a 93% chance of winning one of their 2 remaining games, and thereby clinching the AQ in the process.

Other scenarios:

1.)  For Wash U to win the AQ now, Wash U would have to win out their remaining 2 games, and CWRU would have to lose out on their last 2 games.  In that scenario, Wash U would win the AQ outright, and that is the only scenario possible for the Bears to pull off this feat.  (Drew Pasteur currently gives this scenario a 6% probablilty.)

2.)  For Carnegie Mellon to win the AQ, two scenarios would have to take place:  (Drew Pasteur has this scenario at 1% probabillity.)

(A)  They would have to finish either tied with CWRU in a 2 way tie as UAA Co-Champions with CWRU, or in a 3 way tie as UAA Co-Champions with CWRU and Wash U.  (Wash U would be eliminated on first tiebreaker by virtue of going 0-4 vs CWRU and Carnegie Mellon, thereby reverting to the tiebreaker scenario for a tie between CWRU and Carnegie Mellon.), and

(B)  Emory must finish in sole possession of fourth place in the UAA, and not be tied with anyone else in the standings.  In that case, Carnegie Mellon would have the second tiebreaker advantage over CWRU, as Carnegie Mellon went 2-0 vs Emory, while CWRU went 1-1 vs Emory.

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Game update--

NYU 10, Rochester 1 14:50 left.   Flagrant-1 foul was called on NYU's Zay Freeney for tugging on Ross Gang's arm and shirt and not playing the ball as Gang was attempting to shoot.

Gang missed both FTs, but afterward, Rochester sank 2 3 pointers in a row.

NYU 10, Rochester 7 13:23 left in first half.

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Halftime scores in Noon Eastern tip games--

NYU 38, Rochester 23

Brandeis 40, Emory 33

Road team leading both games at halftime.