MBB: University Athletic Association

[deiscanton]

Well, call me a little bit surprised about NYU's late season surge. (Although, I perhaps shouldn't be so surprised knowing that practically anything that could happen in the UAA men's basketball side did happen this year-- CWRU having just won their first ever UAA men's basketball title, for example.)  I just looked back at a previous post that I made earlier this month, and when I posted it, I was not realistically expecting that NYU would go on a 4 game winning streak afterwards... Maybe win 2 more games at home perhaps-- but winning 2 home games in a row, and then sweeping the road trip at Emory and Rochester, which requires a Saturday flight in between the two games, the following weekend?  Since I posted this previous post which I am quoting here, NYU is 3-3 in UAA home games this season, and is having their best year since the Coles Center closed back in 2016.  At this point, it would be a bit of a downer if NYU did not get selected on a Pool C bid, although NYU wlll be looking to win on Friday and finish 4-3 in home games in the UAA after finishing 3-3 in UAA road games, which would probably solidify a Pool C selection.

Congrats to the NYU coaching staff so far, although I did not pick that staff as my pick for UAA Coaching Staff of the Year, they finish a clear second place, closely behind CWRU's coaching staff.

As far as my posting Matt Snyder's net efficiency handicapping lines, I am doing so this season because I seem to have a bit more trust in that system than in posting what the Massey ratings say about the matchups.   Plus, with the fact that Massachusetts just introduced legal sports betting last week, it just seemed to be fun to just post some info on lines this year, for entertainment purposes only and for the amusement of the readers.  Your mileage may vary on this. 

That being said, the net efficiency ratings going into UAA competition were very high on NYU, as well as NYU seeming to justify a feeling that maybe this year would end up a little bit differently for the Violets than it has for all the other previous years since the Coles Center closed for good in February, 2016.  No matter what happens, NYU will still have the Cregger Invitational winner's trophy for their trophy case as a memento of this season.  I don't know if NYU would have had a better UAA season this year had a pipe in the basement of the new Paulson Center not burst, but unfortunately, 2-7 through 9 UAA games is 2-7 through 9 UAA games.

An interesting observation that I have this year on NYU is that NYU has only won 1 UAA home game so far this season, and with 3 UAA home games at the Brooklyn Athletic Facility still left to play, I would be surprised if NYU won more than 1 additional home game.  This is despite the fact that Matt Snyder's net efficiency handicapping system had NYU as home favorites in practically all of their UAA games in Brooklyn so far this season.  Since the Coles Center closed back in February 2016, the NYU men have not won more than 2 home UAA games in a single season post Coles Center.

[deiscanton]

The following UAA Men's Basketball players, in order, have been named to the D3Hoops.com Team of the Week this season:

Week 1-- Cole Frilling, CWRU
Week 2-- Ryan Algier, Rochester
Week 6-- Spencer Freedman, NYU
Week 7-- Benjamin Pearce, Emory
Week 8-- Ethan Edwards, Brandeis
Week 12-- Mitch Prendergast, CWRU

Newest additions to the list:

Week 13-- Spencer Freedman, NYU  (Second time this season for Spencer Freedman)
Week 13-- Umar Rashid, CWRU

[ADL70]

Additionally, great article on the new Termini locker room at CWRU:

https://observer.case.edu/cwru-renames-mens-basketball-locker-room-after-mark-termini/

I love the old picture with "Case Reserve" on the jerseys.   Before the merger, Western Reserve mostly commonly referred to as only "Reserve."  People forget the rival sports teams picked the two most common names and put them together.   "Case Western" only came about because of the repetition and order of the words.  This is why I am always careful to say the complete "Case Western Reserve" when describing the sports teams...to not lose the legacy of the old "Western Reserve."

I appreciate your use of the full name. I don't understand the public's reluctance to use CWRU when UMHB, UCLA, and UNLV have been readily adopted. It is one more syllable I guess. 

I entered Western Reserve University in September 1966, only to return the next September to find that the "federation" had happened, so I have an affinity for the full name Case Western Reserve or CWRU. "Case Reserve" made sense when the teams merged in 1970 and 1971, since as you say WRU was shortened to "Reserve." By the 80s though, Case Reserve didn't make sense to new students who weren't all that aware of the previously separate institutions. But although I understand the ease of "Case Western", it does grate against my ear.

Western Reserve refers to the Connecticut Western Reserve, land claimed by the colony of Connecticut.

Maybe twenty years ago there was an attempt at rebranding to just "Case" which ultimately failed in large part because of WRU alums' protests. Even though I began at Western Reserve, I am ready to say that I favor just Case over Case Western especially in speaking, but always CWRU when written.

The university's branding discourages "Case" or "Case Western" since they do not represent the "university's "full history."

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

When we get info from the athletic department, there's a request to use CWRU or Case Western Reserve only.

[deiscanton]

Regional rankings are out-- if you are listed this week, you are considered regionally ranked for selection purposes.  New teams can be added in the final regional rankings which will be released shortly after the bracket gets released next Monday, but teams listed this week cannot lose their regional ranking. 

d3hoops.com/playoffs/men/2023/men-regional-rankings-second

1.)  Rochester is ranked #2 in Region III.
2.)  NYU is ranked #4 in Region IV.
3.)  Emory is ranked #5 in Region VI.
4.)  CWRU is ranked #1 in Region VII (UAA-- Pool A automatic qualifier.)
5.)  Carnegie Mellon is ranked #6 in Region VII
6.)  Wash U is ranked #2 in Region VIII.

[deiscanton]

My quick observations--

(1)  In Region VI, Roanoke is no longer regionally ranked, but Maryville (TN) is ranked this week at #6 in Region VI, behind Emory at #5, but ahead of Guilford at #7.

This means that NYU's 11-0 non-conference record currently will not have any results vs non-conference RROs going into Selection Sunday.  Therefore, NYU needs a win on Friday over Brandeis to get to a .720 w/l pct and stay in the Pool C conversation.  If NYU wins on Friday, the .720 w/l pct along with an SOS above .550 and a 4-6 mark in results v UAA RRO opponents may be enough to get NYU a Pool C selection.

(2)  Rochester remains at 5-0 vs non-UAA RROs going into Selection Sunday, as UT-Dallas remained ranked at #7 in R10.

(3)  Wash U is now 0-2 vs non-UAA RROs going into selection Sunday, as Wabash got ranked at #7 in R7 this week, right behind Carnegie Mellon.  Wash 's other non-UAA RRO loss is vs Pomona-Pitzer, ranked #3 in R10.

(4)  Emory is now 1-1 vs non-UAA RROs going into Selection Sunday, as Maryville (TN) got ranked at #6 in R6 this week.  Emory's win over Maryville now counts as an RRO win for Emory, with Guilford is Emory's loss vs a non-UAA RRO.

(5)  Carnegie Mellon still remains regionally ranked at #6 in R7, but with an 0-2 mark vs non-UAA RROs-- a loss vs Middlebury (#2 in R1) and a loss vs Heidelberg (#5 in R7), I do not see the Tartans getting a Pool C selection, as their w/l pct. is too low.

[deiscanton]

So far this season, here are the players who have won at least one UAA Athlete of the Week honor in men's basketball:

1.)  Toby Harris, Brandeis-- 3 times overall, 1 time in UAA play. (Nov. 14 and Dec. 3, 2022, and January 23, 2023)
2.)  Kevin Sax, Carnegie Mellon-- November 21, 2022
3.)  Ryan Algier, Rochester-- November 21, 2022
4.)  Justin Allen, Carnegie Mellon-- November 28, 2022
5.)  Zay Freeney, NYU-- November 28, 2022
6.)  Cinque Stephens, NYU-- December 10, 2022
7.)  RJ Holmes, Carnegie Mellon-- January 3, 2023
8.)  Ethan Edwards, Brandeis-- January 10, 2023
9.)  Benjamin Pearce, Emory-- January 10, 2023
10.) Matt Wiele, Rochester-- January 17, 2023
11.) Mason Johnson, Emory-- January 30, 2023
12.) Cole Frilling, CWRU-- February 6, 2023
13.)  Mitch Prendergast, CWRU-- February 13, 2023

Newest addition to the list:

14.)  Spencer Freedman, NYU-- February 20, 2023

[Greek Tragedy]

Nice work on the vRRO review, deiscanton. Very informative and important to know. I think Rochester and NYU get in with wins this weekend.

[deiscanton]

Nice work on the vRRO review, deiscanton. Very informative and important to know. I think Rochester and NYU get in with wins this weekend.

I agree with you there, in that NYU needs a w/l pct above .700 to get selected as a Pool C team on primary criteria and avoid any potential discussion about NYU's non-conference SOS.

Similarly, Rochester gets selected as a Pool C with a winning pct around .680, given their SOS of .632, their 5-0 mark vs non-conference RROs, and their 5-5 mark vs UAA RROs, which a win over Emory would give the Yellowjackets.  On their non-conference slate, even if you discount Rochester's victories over RROs UT-Dallas, Nazareth, and Ithaca-- it is pretty hard to discount non-conference wins over Middlebury and Wooster given where those 2 teams are currently positioned in the regional rankings.

Rochester would still have a UW-Oshkosh 2016-2017 type resume with a loss vs Emory-- with the addition of 5 non-conference RRO wins, which UW-Oshkosh in the 2016-17 season did not have.  The win/loss pct of .640 after 25 games would be the exact same win/loss pct. that UW-Oshkosh in 2016-17 had going into the WIAC tournament.  Only difference is that UW-Oshkosh was ranked #8 in the Central region that year going into the WIAC tournament and moved up in the regional rankings to #6 in the Central region after going 1-1 in the WIAC tournament.   Rochester is #2 in Region 3 going into the final week this year.

Going into the WIAC tournament, UW-Oshkosh in 2016-17 had a 7-4 non-conference record, with an 0-3 mark vs non-conference RROs.  Oshkosh then went 9-5 in the WiAC with a 4-2 mark vs WIAC RROs, including a win over UW-River Falls, the eventual WIAC AQ and the eventual #1 in the Central Region that year.  In the WIAC tournament, Oshkosh went 1-1, both of which were RRO games-- with the 1 loss in the WIAC tournament being the game for the AQ.  Oshkosh's SOS was above .600 that year as well.   That team bucked the trend of not getting selected as a Pool C with a win/loss pct below .667 that season.

[deiscanton]

Friday, February 24, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

Brandeis at NYU

NYU 88, Brandeis 76

NYU has an 85% chance to win this game, and is a -11.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team

O/U total is 144.0

[deiscanton]

Halftime from Brooklyn--

NYU 43, Brandeis 31

PBP-- Shaun Naokarni
Color-- Aidan Massie

[Greek Tragedy]

NYU basically clinches a Pool C birth with the win. 70-57.

[deiscanton]

Final from Brooklyn--

NYU 70, Brandeis 57

NYU finishes the regular season at 7-7 in the UAA, 18-7 overall, and awaits a potential Pool C selection on Monday (which, with a .720 winning percentage and their SOS, seems very likely.)

Brandeis finishes the season at 4-10 in the UAA, 12-13 overall.

On Monday, should NYU get a Pool C, it will be the first time since 2015-16 that both the NYU men's and women's basketball teams made the NCAAs in the same season.  Prior to 2015-16, the only other season that this feat has happened was the 1997-98 season.

NYU's color commentator Aidan Massie reported that there were at least 30 people on the overflow wait list today trying to get into the packed 180 seat Brooklyn Athletic Facilty for today's Senior Day ceremonies. 

[deiscanton]

Friday, February 24, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

Brandeis at NYU

NYU 88, Brandeis 76

NYU has an 85% chance to win this game, and is a -11.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team

O/U total is 144.0

Reviewing the results from today-- Winner's score given first

NYU 70, Brandeis 57-- NYU covers the -11.5 point home favorite spread.

NYU had 67 possessions in the win-- Game tempo went as predicted.

Game total is 127-- Under won that one.

[deiscanton]

Saturday, February 25, 2023

Daily score predictions for UAA Men's Basketball Games courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing home team's predicted score first and away team's predicted score second.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  CWRU at Carnegie Mellon

Carnegie Mellon 78, CWRU 81

Carnegie Mellon has a 41% chance to win this game, and is a +2.5 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 76 possessions per team

O/U total is 158.5

2.)  Wash U at UChicago

UChicago 58, Wash U 63

UChicago has a 33% chance to win this game, and is a +5.0 point home underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 63 possessions per team.

O/U total is 121.0

3.)  Emory at Rochester

Rochester 78, Emory 75

Rochester has a 59% chance to win this game,  and is a -2.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 75 possessions per team.

O/U is 153.5