MBB: University Athletic Association

[Greek Tragedy]

I don't know anything about anything, especially the UAA. Interesting choice for the Coaching Staff of the Year. NYU went from 4-10, last season, to 7-7, winning their last 5 conference games. CWRU also improved from last season, going from 8-5 to 11-3. CWRU got 3 players on the 1st team, including POTY (Prendergast). NYU got just one player on either team. I suppose they are saying they coached a bunch of non-AC players to a .500 conference record and that's better than CWRU coaching staff?

[deiscanton]

I don't know anything about anything, especially the UAA. Interesting choice for the Coaching Staff of the Year. NYU went from 4-10, last season, to 7-7, winning their last 5 conference games. CWRU also improved from last season, going from 8-5 to 11-3. CWRU got 3 players on the 1st team, including POTY (Prendergast). NYU got just one player on either team. I suppose they are saying they coached a bunch of non-AC players to a .500 conference record and that's better than CWRU coaching staff?

NYU had been picked by the UAA coaches to finish last in this season's UAA preseason poll, and even Dave McHugh commented on Hoopsville that NYU was on life-support at best for an NCAA Pool C bid at 4-7 in the UAA-- responding to comments from the NYU commentary crew that the Violets were still alive for an NCAA tournament bid after sweeping UChicago and Wash U at home to improve from 2-7 to 4-7 in the UAA.   Back then, NYU had to sweep the weekend road-trip at Emory and Rochester to even get a chance at a Pool C selection-- something that the Violets men's basketball program had never been done until this season, as Emory and Rochester did not even become UAA travel partners in basketball until the 2009-10 season. 

Even when Joe Nesci was NYU head men's basketball coach, the best NYU did on that weekend in his tenure was split that road trip.  The previous NYU team to make the NCAAs on a Pool C selection, the 2015-16 team, won the Friday Feb. 12, 2016 game at Emory 73-56, but lost the Sunday, Feb. 14, 2016 game at Rochester, 75-63.  (From the NYU record book).

Between the 2015-16 basketball season and the 2022-23 basketball seasons, NYU was swept on the road trip to Rochester and Emory 5 times for a combined total of 0 wins and 10 losses at the Palestra in Rochester, NY and the WoodPEC at Atlanta.  This was during the final 2 seasons of Joe Nesci's tenure as NYU head coach and all seasons that NYU played under then head coach Dagan Nelson.  During those seasons, NYU went 2-12 in UAA play in the 2016-17 season; 3-11 in UAA play in the 2017-18 season; 2-12 in the 2018-19 season; 1-13 in UAA play in the 2019-20 season; and 4-10 in UAA play in the 2021-22 season.

Coach Dave Klatsky and his crew certainly deserve credit at the very least for becoming the first NYU men's basketball coaching staff to coach the Violets to a sweep of the Emory/Rochester road weekend in NYU program history, as since 2009-10, that road trip has probably surpassed the Midwest road trip to UChicago and Wash U as the most difficult one to sweep in the UAA, IMO.

I did personally think that the CWRU coaching staff should have been UAA Coachiing Staff of the Year for leading the Spartans to their first outright UAA title-- but NYU's staff came a close second iin my personal vote, and I would not have been as surprised if the CWRU and NYU staffs had been voted in as Co-Coaching Staffs of the Year.  So, the NYU pick as Coaching Staff of the Year over CWRU is somewhat of a surprise, but not a complete shocker.

NYU will record the 2022-23 team as one of their "Great Men's Basketballl Teams" in their record book-- an honor that NYU bestows upon any of their men's basketball teams that made it to NCAA or ECAC postseason play.

[deiscanton]

Friday, March 3, 2023

Special playoff edition-- Daily score predictions for NCAA DIII Men's Tournament games involving UAA teams courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing predicted winning team's score first and predicted losing team's score second.

I will also be listing the UAA team's chances to win the game, and their predicted spread.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Nichols v Rochester-- 3:40 PM Eastern-- Neutral site game at Middlebury

Nichols 82, Rochester 82  Game is predicted to go to overtime

Rochester has a 50% chance to win this game in regulation, and is a +0.5 point underdog in regulation-- Game is a pick 'em in overtime.

Predicted game tempo in regulation is 80 possessions per team.

O/U is 164.5

2.)  Lancaster Bible v NYU-- 5:10 PM Eastern-- Neutral site game at Mount Union

NYU 82, Lancaster Bible 74

NYU has a 77% chance to win this game, and is a -8.5 point "home" favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 74 possessions per team.

O/U is 166.0

3.)  Arcadia at CWRU-- 6:20 PM Eastern

CWRU 86, Arcadia 69

CWRU has a 94% chance to win this game, and is a -17.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 70 possessions per team

O/U is 154.5

4.)  Emory at Hampden-Sydney-- 7:20 PM Eastern

Hampden-Sydney 81, Emory 73

Emory has a 23% chance to win this game, and is a +8.0 point road underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 77 possessions per team.

O/U is 154.0

5.)  Coe at Wash U-- 6:55 PM Central/7:55 PM Eastern

Wash U 71, Coe 63

Wash U has a 78% chance to win this game, and is a -8.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team.

O/U is 133.5

[deiscanton]

Finals in first round of NCAA DIII tournament games involving UAA teams:

1.)  Nichols 74, Rochester 71

2.)  Lancaster Bible 67, NYU 64

3.)  CWRU 82, Arcadia 76

4.)  Hampden-Sydney 63, Emory 59

5.)  Wash U 69, Coe 48

CWRU and Wash U advance to the second round (Round of 32) tomorrow.

Season is over for Rochester, NYU, and Emory.

[deiscanton]

Friday, March 3, 2023

Special playoff edition-- Daily score predictions for NCAA DIII Men's Tournament games involving UAA teams courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing predicted winning team's score first and predicted losing team's score second.

I will also be listing the UAA team's chances to win the game, and their predicted spread.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  Nichols v Rochester-- 3:40 PM Eastern-- Neutral site game at Middlebury

Nichols 82, Rochester 82  Game is predicted to go to overtime

Rochester has a 50% chance to win this game in regulation, and is a +0.5 point underdog in regulation-- Game is a pick 'em in overtime.

Predicted game tempo in regulation is 80 possessions per team.

O/U is 164.5

2.)  Lancaster Bible v NYU-- 5:10 PM Eastern-- Neutral site game at Mount Union

NYU 82, Lancaster Bible 74

NYU has a 77% chance to win this game, and is a -8.5 point "home" favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 74 possessions per team.

O/U is 166.0

3.)  Arcadia at CWRU-- 6:20 PM Eastern

CWRU 86, Arcadia 69

CWRU has a 94% chance to win this game, and is a -17.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 70 possessions per team

O/U is 154.5

4.)  Emory at Hampden-Sydney-- 7:20 PM Eastern

Hampden-Sydney 81, Emory 73

Emory has a 23% chance to win this game, and is a +8.0 point road underdog.

Predicted game tempo is 77 possessions per team.

O/U is 154.0

5.)  Coe at Wash U-- 6:55 PM Central/7:55 PM Eastern

Wash U 71, Coe 63

Wash U has a 78% chance to win this game, and is a -8.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team.

O/U is 133.5

Reviewing the results from today:

1.)  Nichols 74, Rochester 71-- Nichols covered the -0.5 point favorite spread.

Nichols had approx 73 possessions in the win-- Game tempo was a little slower than predicted.

Game total is 145-- Under won that one.

2.)  Lancaster Bible 67, NYU 64-- Lancaster Bible won outright as the "road" underdog on a neutral court.

Lancaster Bible had approx 60 possessions in the win-- Game tempo slower than predicted.

Game total is 131-- Under won that one.

3.)  CWRU 82, Arcadia 76-- Arcadia won against the spread as road underdog-- Arcadia covered the +17.0 point road underdog spread.

CWRU had approx 73 possessions in the win-- Game tempo about as predicted.

Game total is 158-- Over won that one.

4.)  Hampden-Sydney 63, Emory 59-- Emory won against the spread as road underdog-- Emory covered the +8.0 point road underdog spread.

Hampden-Sydney had approx 68 possessions in the win-- Game tempo slower than predicted.

Game total is 122-- Under won that one.

5.)  Wash U 69, Coe 48-- Wash U easily covers the -8.5 point home favorite spread.

Wash U had approx 66 possessions in the win-- Game tempo about as predicted.

Game total is 117-- Under won that one.

[deiscanton]

Second round-- NCAA DIII tournament games involving UAA teams-- Round of 32-- Saturday, March 4, 2023

1.)  UW-Whitewater at CWRU-- 6:20 PM Eastern tip.

2.)  North Park at Wash U-- 6:55 PM Central/7:55 PM Eastern tip.

[blue_jays]

Seeing Rochester sputter out of the tournament should surprise no one. I know the criteria dictated that they get chosen to the NCAAs, but that team looked mediocre for 5 straight weeks and it showed in the results. SOS isn't everything, and Rochester didn't pass the eye test IMO.

[deiscanton]

Saturday, March 4, 2023

Special playoff edition-- Daily score predictions for NCAA DIII Men's Tournament games involving UAA teams courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing predicted winning team's score first and predicted losing team's score second.

I will also be listing the UAA team's chances to win the game, and their predicted spread.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  UW-Whitewater at CWRU-- 6:20 PM Eastern

CWRU 87, UW-Whitewater 80

CWRU has a 73% chance to win this game, and is a -7.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team.

O/U is 166.5

2.)  North Park at Wash U-- 6:55 PM Central/ 7:55 PM Eastern tip.

Wash U 70, North Park 64

Wash U has a 70% chance to win this game, and is a -5.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 71 possessions per team.

O/U is 134.5

[deiscanton]

Finals in second round NCAA DIII Men's Basketball Tournament games involving UAA teams:

1.)  UW-Whitewater 78, CWRU 75

2.)  North Park 72, Wash U 69

Season is over for UAA Men's Basketball-- UAA teams finish 2-5 in this year's NCAA DIII Men's Basketball Championship.

[deiscanton]

Saturday, March 4, 2023

Special playoff edition-- Daily score predictions for NCAA DIII Men's Tournament games involving UAA teams courtesy of:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

I will be listing predicted winning team's score first and predicted losing team's score second.

I will also be listing the UAA team's chances to win the game, and their predicted spread.

These scorelines are based on Matt Snyder's efficiency ratings program going into today.

Warning: For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines!

1.)  UW-Whitewater at CWRU-- 6:20 PM Eastern

CWRU 87, UW-Whitewater 80

CWRU has a 73% chance to win this game, and is a -7.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 73 possessions per team.

O/U is 166.5

2.)  North Park at Wash U-- 6:55 PM Central/ 7:55 PM Eastern tip.

Wash U 70, North Park 64

Wash U has a 70% chance to win this game, and is a -5.5 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 71 possessions per team.

O/U is 134.5

For the final time on this board for this season, reviewing the results from today:

1.)  UW-Whitewater 78, CWRU 75-- UW-Whitewater wins outright as road underdog.

UW-Whitewater had approx 72 possessions in the win-- Game tempo about as predicted.

Game total is 153-- Under wins this one.

2.)  North Park 72, Wash U 69-- North Park wins outright as road underdog.

North Park had 70 possessions in the win-- Game tempo about as predicted.

Game total is 141-- Over wins this one.

[deiscanton]

Complete season list of UAA Athletes of the Week for Men's Basketball for the 2022-2023 basketball season, including the NCAA DiII Men's Basketball Tournament:

1.)  Toby Harris, Brandeis-- 3 times overall, 1 time in UAA play. (Nov. 14 and Dec. 3, 2022, and January 23, 2023)
2.)  Kevin Sax, Carnegie Mellon-- November 21, 2022
3.)  Ryan Algier, Rochester-- November 21, 2022
4.)  Justin Allen, Carnegie Mellon-- November 28, 2022
5.)  Zay Freeney, NYU-- November 28, 2022
6.)  Cinque Stephens, NYU-- December 10, 2022
7.)  RJ Holmes, Carnegie Mellon-- January 3, 2023
8.)  Ethan Edwards, Brandeis-- January 10, 2023
9.)  Benjamin Pearce, Emory-- January 10, 2023
10.) Matt Wiele, Rochester-- January 17, 2023
11.) Mason Johnson, Emory-- January 30, 2023
12.) Cole Frilling, CWRU-- 3 times overall, 2 times in UAA play-- (February 6, February 27, and March 7, 2023).
13.)  Mitch Prendergast, CWRU-- February 13, 2023
14.)  Spencer Freedman, NYU-- February 20, 2023


List resumes next season.

[Pat Coleman]

Seeing Rochester sputter out of the tournament should surprise no one. I know the criteria dictated that they get chosen to the NCAAs, but that team looked mediocre for 5 straight weeks and it showed in the results. SOS isn't everything, and Rochester didn't pass the eye test IMO.

It turned out, too, that perhaps Nichols was pretty good.

[WUPHF]

Rochester
Washington University
Case Western Reserve
NYU
Carnegie Mellon
Emory
Brandeis
Chicago

My predictions from September held up relatively well in what was going to be one of the more challenging seasons to call.

I had no idea that Emory would be bolstered by two first-year players who had fantastic seasons.

I also did not know much about Danny Frauenheim but I should have done more homework.  Frauenheim was an incredible addition for the Spartans.  No way they finish higher than third without him.

Rochester had a good non-conference season, but struggled during conference play.  Injuries were a part of that.

The final standings:

Case Western Reserve
Washington University
Emory
NYU
Carnegie Mellon
Rochester
Brandeis
Chicago

[WUPHF]

Just thinking about players who are expected to return next season.

Here is a quick look at the teams without insider knowledge of who might return, so just speculating.  I am also assuming that everyone in their first, second or third season is returning. 

I'll go a few teams at a time.

Rochester
The Yellowjackets were the oldest team in the league with Algier, Gang and Masino returning to play in their fifth or sixth season in 2022-2023 along with a bunch of other seniors.

The Senior Day recap does not list the seniors who were honored, but includes a photo that does not include Amsellem, Niemczura (5 pgg, 2 rpg), Jackson, Kershner (7 ppg, 3 rpg) and Knight who may be returning for a fifth season though obviously that is hard to say.  They also return Jagodzinski (6.5 ppg, 3 rpg) and Wiele (10 ppg, 4 rpg) among others.

The Yellowjackets appear to be rebuilding in 2023-2024, but they always have guys who make big jumps in productivity when needed.

Case Western Reserve
The Spartans were the second oldest team in the league with Prendergast and Frauenheim along with Frilling and a few other seniors. 

Frilling may well return which would big for the Spartans for all the obvious reasons.  He averaged 15 ppg and 8 rpg this season.  McGuiness had suggested that he hopes Frilling returns in one of his weekly recaps.

Drenth was not on the roster, but others here said he would be back next season after returning from an injury.  Drenth had a good sophomore campaign and would bring much needed size to the post, though Rashid (13 ppg, 5 rpb) was just a sophomore and had a very good year. 

Trunley (8 ppg) Elam (7 ppg, 5 rpg) and Thorburn (7 ppg, 5 rpg) also return.

[WUPHF]

Carnegie Mellon
The Tartans senior class including Nakasian, Berry, Oberman and Sax were all honored as part of senior day, but I would not be surprised if any of them return for a fifth year.

In 2022-2023, the Tartans were paced by juniors Stone (14 ppg, 3 rpg) and Holmes (13 ppg, 7 rpg) as well as first-year Allen (11 ppg, 3 rpg).  They also return DeJardin and others.