CCIW

[GoThunder1]

Greg,

I appreciate the detail on my questions. Sounds like NPU is going to be the cream of the crop this year in the conference.

In regards to your question about the Thunder - unfortunately, I don't have the same optimistic outlook for them, as you do for NP. Although we return most of the starting lineup - the team simply lacks the dynamic players that we have had in the past. I expect Kapitaniuk to be solid in the middle of the park, as he has been throughout his career. We do return Moyes/Koplin/Whallon in the attacking 3rd, so hopefully a year of growth is what was needed and we can get 6-8 goals from each (our leading scorer last year tallied 4 goals). Justin Hill (2nd Team All CCIW) will lead the backline, of which we should see some new faces. I haven't heard who will be the starter in goal - as that was a position last year that lacked consistency.

Hopefully Coach DeClute has recruited some impactful freshman - or I think it will be a struggle for this team to play their way into the conference tournament.

Predictions - Non-Conference (5-4-1), Conference (2-3-3) = (7-7-4) - 5th in the conference

Conference Predictions:
1. North Park
2. Carthage
3. Millikin
4. North Central
5. Wheaton
6. Illinois Wesleyan
7. Elmhurst
8. Carroll
9. Augustana

[GoThunder1]

Greg,

Will there be video of the scrimmage tonight at NP?

[Gregory Sager]

Nope. But I'll give a report tonight or tomorrow on what I saw.

Saturday's scrimmage against Lewis also won't be streamed. Albion's not streaming the season opener over in Michigan, either, so NPU's first viewable contest will be a week from Saturday against the U of C down in Hyde Park.

[Gregory Sager]

North Park beat Roosevelt, 2-0, on a pair of Patrick Knap goals. Aside from a brief spell near the end of the first half, and parts of the later stages of the game when the Roosevelt starters were facing all backups from NPU, the Vikings had the run of play throughout. They outshot RU, 18-12, and placed eight shots on frame to five for the Lakers -- four of which came in the second half after the NPU coaches had started to work in the backups. All in all, NPU used 24 players on the night. The Roosevelt coach treated it like a regular-season match, playing no more than 15 or 16 guys.

As expected, the Vikings looked out of sync; there wasn't the usual flurry of foot-to-foot passes, and there was a much larger number than usual of instances when passer and intended receiver weren't on the same page on passes into space. It'll take a while for their familiarity with each other to start showing itself on the pitch.

The big news of the night is that the Vikings have a new look, as they've gone back to a three-man back line after many years spent using a four-defender set. I understand the principle at work, which is to get your best eleven players on the field, and if the experiment doesn't work to Kris Grahn's satisfaction it's always easier to move from a three-man back line to a four-man back line in midseason than it is to do it the other way around. Nevertheless, the loss of that extra center back as a safety blanket in front of the keeper makes me a little nervous, especially with an all-freshman back line out there.

But I have to say this: The trio that started -- left back Arian Cindahl, center back Runar Berg-Domaas, and right back William Bostrom-Rydfjallen -- looked impressive. What made their performance more impressive is that Roosevelt doesn't play dump-and-chase; the Lakers use a build offense, which is tougher to negotiate with three defenders. When the other team is just sending in one big hit after another, it merely comes down to winning 50/50s, which would be relatively easy with the size NPU has in the back third this season. But with a build comes rushing forwards and mids and passes arriving from different directions, which is harder for three guys to stop -- and Cindahl, Berg-Domaas, and Bostrom-Rydfjallen did a good job of stopping it. They didn't give the Lakers more than three or four good looks all night, and no great ones. I'm also intrigued by another freshman defender, Abu Secka. He began on the outside by spelling Cindahl, then moved into the middle to replace Berg-Domaas, and assistant coach Karsten Hahn told me that Secka can also fill in for Ulrik Lund at defensive mid. Like Berg-Domaas and Bostrom-Rydfjallen, Secka is a big fella; all three of them are a legit 6'2, and they've all clearly spent some time in weight rooms. These guys look like they have great potential. But that back line is going to continue to worry me for the immediate future.

Kris Grahn also used a new face at right mid, freshman William Sandkvist. Together with the three defenders and Niclas Holgersson, that made five freshmen in the NPU starting lineup, while two freshman backups, defenders Secka and Ethan Prankus, saw a lot of time off of the bench. This could turn out to be a really special class for the Park if these guys stick it out.

Sure was great to see Gustav Ericsson and Gianfranco DeCarne back in Vikings livery.

Erlend Kemkers didn't play, as expected, but Shatil Khoury and Matthias Stulen were also held out as a precautionary measure.

[Gotberg]

Greg, thanks for the recap.  Just for clarification, I think Cindhal is a junior and Secka is s sophomore.  I think both previously attended schools out East.

[SlideTackle]

The NP roster has 53 players?  I'm somewhat new to D3 soccer, but have never seen a roster approaching this size.  Why so many rostered players?

[Gotberg]

The NP roster has 53 players?  I'm somewhat new to D3 soccer, but have never seen a roster approaching this size.  Why so many rostered players?

It's a huge roster.  My personal take is if there's interest from students and the ability to support 2 teams (Varsity / JV), why turn away the tuition dollars if the outcome is positive revenue? 

There are predictions of mass closures of private, 4 year universities over the next decade+ as the overall student population in the US is declining. 

Here's an example article: 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelhorn/2018/12/13/will-half-of-all-colleges-really-close-in-the-next-decade/#486c5d4252e5

That's compounded by the increased enrollment at 2 year schools in order for families to save money.

So, I would think a high roster could boost profits while also enhancing the experience for students that want to extend their athletic career and enjoy the team experience.

[PaulNewman]

The NP roster has 53 players?  I'm somewhat new to D3 soccer, but have never seen a roster approaching this size.  Why so many rostered players?

It's a huge roster.  My personal take is if there's interest from students and the ability to support 2 teams (Varsity / JV), why turn away the tuition dollars if the outcome is positive revenue? 

There are predictions of mass closures of private, 4 year universities over the next decade+ as the overall student population in the US is declining. 

Here's an example article: 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelhorn/2018/12/13/will-half-of-all-colleges-really-close-in-the-next-decade/#486c5d4252e5

That's compounded by the increased enrollment at 2 year schools in order for families to save money.

So, I would think a high roster could boost profits while also enhancing the experience for students that want to extend their athletic career and enjoy the team experience.

This is an interesting and for me novel argument.  Are you suggesting that kids pick where to spend their tuition dollars based on whether a JV program is available or whether a coach offers a roster spot no matter how far down the depth chart you would be?  I would guess that some number (most?) of those JV players were already gonna go to NP regardless.  I'd be concerned about kids anywhere choosing their school based on the possibility or promise of a JV slot.   I can't imagine picking any school no matter how great based on being offered the #42 spot in a D3 college program.  If already at the school anyway, or choosing anyway regardless of that #42 spot, then sure, if a a kid wants to participate that way then great, but I just can't see a kid choosing a particular school with the "offer" as the tipping point in the decision.

[Gregory Sager]

Greg, thanks for the recap.  Just for clarification, I think Cindhal is a junior and Secka is s sophomore.  I think both previously attended schools out East.

That's what I get for typing my report without looking at the roster.

Cindahl spent two seasons at Pfeiffer. Secka played for a juco, Herkimer Community College in upstate New York, last season.

The NP roster has 53 players?  I'm somewhat new to D3 soccer, but have never seen a roster approaching this size.  Why so many rostered players?

This is actually a smaller roster than NPU had last season. Last year NPU began the year with 55 players. What's more, the coaches actually made cuts in preseason just to get the roster down to a more manageable size that will allow them to split the team up into varsity and reserve squads of 25-26 players apiece.

[SlideTackle]

Greg, thanks for the recap.  Just for clarification, I think Cindhal is a junior and Secka is s sophomore.  I think both previously attended schools out East.

The NP roster has 53 players?  I'm somewhat new to D3 soccer, but have never seen a roster approaching this size.  Why so many rostered players?

This is actually a smaller roster than NPU had last season. Last year NPU began the year with 55 players. What's more, the coaches actually made cuts in preseason just to get the roster down to a more manageable size that will allow them to split the team up into varsity and reserve squads of 25-26 players apiece.

Thank you.  That makes sense then.  Didn't think this would include JV rostered players.

[Gregory Sager]

The NP roster has 53 players?  I'm somewhat new to D3 soccer, but have never seen a roster approaching this size.  Why so many rostered players?

It's a huge roster.  My personal take is if there's interest from students and the ability to support 2 teams (Varsity / JV), why turn away the tuition dollars if the outcome is positive revenue? 

There are predictions of mass closures of private, 4 year universities over the next decade+ as the overall student population in the US is declining. 

Here's an example article: 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelhorn/2018/12/13/will-half-of-all-colleges-really-close-in-the-next-decade/#486c5d4252e5

That's compounded by the increased enrollment at 2 year schools in order for families to save money.

So, I would think a high roster could boost profits while also enhancing the experience for students that want to extend their athletic career and enjoy the team experience.

This is an interesting and for me novel argument.

This is actually news to you? Using intercollegiate athletics as a means to boost enrollment is standard fare in D3, particularly for tuition-driven schools such as NPU. It's why so many schools are expanding their menu of offered sports -- I still chuckle every time that I look at the Adrian College athletics page and I'm reminded that the Bulldogs have a varsity bass fishing team -- and it's why so many D3 conferences are obliging their members by sponsoring competition in new sports. For example, the CCIW has added men's volleyball as an officially-sponsored sport this school year. It added both men's and women's lacrosse about four or five years ago; I can remember a time not too many years ago when a lacrosse stick was as alien to a midwestern kid as a polo mallet or a cricket bat.

And D3 schools aren't using athletics as a revenue driver simply by adding sports. They're often treating their athletics departments as adjuncts of their admissions departments, setting recruiting quotas for their coaches that hold them responsible for bringing in a certain number of new players each season. To again use the CCIW as an example, it's not uncommon to see 120 to 140 kids come out for a football team at several schools in the league. Carthage had over 160 players on the football roster a few seasons ago, which boggled my mind. Nobody needs more than 105-110 players to field a full varsity team and a JV team that will allow them to develop their underclassmen, and if you are willing to forego a JV team you can get away with as few as 60 or 65 and still be very competitive. But the rosters are inflated, because kids still want to play college football -- and schools that need their tuition money are not about to quash the dreams of those kids, even if the chances are extremely slim for many of them that they will ever see the field in a varsity game.

Again, this is standard operating procedure for much of D3. It isn't at the schools with which you're familiar, such as Kenyon and the NESCAC schools, but those schools are in a different category in terms of finances and applicant pools ... and they're the minority among D3 schools, whereas the more modestly-endowed and less exclusive schools that are tuition-driven are the majority. That Forbes article to which Gotberg linked is pointed straight at the heart of D3.

Are you suggesting that kids pick where to spend their tuition dollars based on whether a JV program is available or whether a coach offers a roster spot no matter how far down the depth chart you would be?

I don't think that he was suggesting that at all, because: a) most kids don't see themselves as JV fodder, although scrupulous coaches typically mention on a recruiting visit that they do have JV teams for developmental purposes; and b) scrupulous coaches don't offer anything in a recruiting visit. But at most places, roster spots are easy to come by. Tryouts and cuts are the exception in D3, not the rule. In D3, if you want to play a sport and your check doesn't bounce, they'll hand you a uniform in most cases.

Recruiting at the D3 level typically isn't about manipulating an impressionable teenager. It's about offering an opportunity. Adolescent student-athletes frequently make school choices based upon their dreams rather than upon taking a hard pragmatic look at where they stand in relation to their peers in terms of talent. And for others, it's all really nothing more than indulging in the wish to continue being part of a team and playing the sport that they love -- even if it only ends up being on the practice field or at the JV level. The beauty of D3 sports is that it offers that opportunity to those who know very well that they aren't blue chips but who nevertheless don't want to stop playing competitive sports.

I would guess that some number (most?) of those JV players were already gonna go to NP regardless.  I'd be concerned about kids anywhere choosing their school based on the possibility or promise of a JV slot.   I can't imagine picking any school no matter how great based on being offered the #42 spot in a D3 college program.

Again, nobody manipulated, fooled, or forced those kids into choosing NPU. It wouldn't have taken them more than 15 seconds on the NPU website to find out for themselves that they were looking at a school that had 55 players on the men's soccer roster last season, since that roster wasn't taken down until it was replaced by the new roster last week. But, as I said, I strongly doubt that any of them saw themselves as being the #42 player on the NPU depth chart in 2019. The players who were recruited were stars, or at least reasonably effective starters, at their respective high schools, and were sure that they were good enough to make a mark on the pitch at North Park. Otherwise, the coaches wouldn't have wasted their most precious resource -- time -- on recruiting them in the first place. Walk-ons are another matter, of course.

Most of all, these recruits want to win. Playing for a winner is a huge ingredient in what a great many student-athletes are looking for in their choice of schools. It's certainly acted as a magnet for NPU men's soccer -- whereas NPU football, for example, which has a tradition that's diametrically opposite to the Vikings soccer program in terms of its lack of success, has had years in which it has struggled to make recruiting quotas.

If already at the school anyway, or choosing anyway regardless of that #42 spot, then sure, if a a kid wants to participate that way then great, but I just can't see a kid choosing a particular school with the "offer" as the tipping point in the decision.

That's not really the narrative here, though, unless you're talking about a walk-on. If you came to NPU because you were recruited to play men's soccer, then you're already a pretty good soccer player who has a legit shot to become a useful player at this level. Otherwise, the coaches wouldn't bother to recruit you.

[WUPHF]

It isn't at the schools with which you're familiar, such as Kenyon and the NESCAC schools, but those schools are in a different category in terms of finances and applicant pools ...

I do think even the NESCAC schools are using athletics for enrollment management purposes, but it is not so much about finding students as it is about finding male students.

As for varsity bass fishing, I think many of the colleges and universities that have added (or are looking to add) eSports as an admissions tool should also look at bass fishing.

Bass fishing could be perfect for a small college or university, especially rural institutions, as a way to add students if they can fundraise properly.

[PaulNewman]

First of all, no criticism of NP was intended.  As has been noted on the site before, NP is far from the only school to have an inordinately large roster.  If anything, I'm questioning the kids and their families.  I was trying to make the point that choosing a college, especially at D3, based on a roster spot miles and miles from the varsity field, seems a little ill-advised, and aside from any issues of school prestige or endowments.

Now, if you're telling me that NP ACTIVELY recruits ALL of those 55 kids and makes some kind of promise no matter how vague, then I may alter my opinion about schools doing this (as just as much on the schools as the kids/families).  I would think a better draw would be promoting a school having an incredible intramurals program, which might be attractive to kids who were high school athletes in various degrees.

I assume you are saying that a decent chunk of those 55 are NOT walk-ons and/or students who otherwise would have chosen NP anyway? 

I also assume you saw our SLU alum's post about his view that 30 should be the ceiling.

Anyway, yes, it is new for me.  You make the good point that perhaps these kids have good enough backgrounds and healthy enough egos that they project themselves as actually playing for the varsity team, either right away or within the first couple of years.  You also make the good point that they should know coming in what the deal is with roster size and the existence of a JV team.  OK, so once they do, in fact, find out that they are somewhere in the 30-55 mix and relegated to a JV squad, does some portion quit and continue attending NP or transfer?

I'll read the article, but an institution surviving based on getting tuition from large numbers of recruited athletes who may never see a varsity field seems like a strategy that I wouldn't hang my hat on.

[Gotberg]

First of all, no criticism of NP was intended.  As has been noted on the site before, NP is far from the only school to have an inordinately large roster.  If anything, I'm questioning the kids and their families.  I was trying to make the point that choosing a college, especially at D3, based on a roster spot miles and miles from the varsity field, seems a little ill-advised, and aside from any issues of school prestige or endowments.

Now, if you're telling me that NP ACTIVELY recruits ALL of those 55 kids and makes some kind of promise no matter how vague, then I may alter my opinion about schools doing this (as just as much on the schools as the kids/families).  I would think a better draw would be promoting a school having an incredible intramurals program, which might be attractive to kids who were high school athletes in various degrees.

I assume you are saying that a decent chunk of those 55 are NOT walk-ons and/or students who otherwise would have chosen NP anyway? 

I also assume you saw our SLU alum's post about his view that 30 should be the ceiling.

Anyway, yes, it is new for me.  You make the good point that perhaps these kids have good enough backgrounds and healthy enough egos that they project themselves as actually playing for the varsity team, either right away or within the first couple of years.  You also make the good point that they should know coming in what the deal is with roster size and the existence of a JV team.  OK, so once they do, in fact, find out that they are somewhere in the 30-55 mix and relegated to a JV squad, does some portion quit and continue attending NP or transfer?

I'll read the article, but an institution surviving based on getting tuition from large numbers of recruited athletes who may never see a varsity field seems like a strategy that I wouldn't hang my hat on.

I'm sure recruiting athletes is one of many enrollment strategies schools have in place (not limited to NPU).

I think each student-athlete has a different story (Stay, transfer, quit, etc) - is it worth trying to figure them all out? (not limited to NPU).

[Gregory Sager]

First of all, no criticism of NP was intended.  As has been noted on the site before, NP is far from the only school to have an inordinately large roster.  If anything, I'm questioning the kids and their families.  I was trying to make the point that choosing a college, especially at D3, based on a roster spot miles and miles from the varsity field, seems a little ill-advised, and aside from any issues of school prestige or endowments.

No argument there. Then again, the ability to make good decisions is typically a work in progress for the average 17- or 18-year-old. And a pretty high percentage of parents refuse to step on their kids' dreams for the sake of practicality, even if there are huge sums of money involved.

Most of the young men on the NPU roster who are American residents are working-class kids from immigrant families. I think that there's likely more family-induced pragmatism there than is true at other schools; these are families that don't have the luxury of indulging their children by paying a whopping tuition bill just so the kid can play JV soccer for four years.

Now, if you're telling me that NP ACTIVELY recruits ALL of those 55 kids and makes some kind of promise no matter how vague, then I may alter my opinion about schools doing this (as just as much on the schools as the kids/families).  I would think a better draw would be promoting a school having an incredible intramurals program, which might be attractive to kids who were high school athletes in various degrees.

I know the NPU coaches well enough to know that they don't make such promises. I also know that the evidence that's right in front of those kids every time that they click on the North Park website would preclude the NPU coaches from making such promises even if they wanted to, aside from the promise that the kid will get a fair shake when it comes to being evaluated and trained.

I assume you are saying that a decent chunk of those 55 are NOT walk-ons and/or students who otherwise would have chosen NP anyway?

Most, if not all, of the 53 players on the 2019 NPU roster were recruited. There's obviously a very high recruiting success rate there, which is a tribute to the program that John Born and Kris Grahn have built and the on-the-field success that it has enjoyed. I honestly don't know if or how many of the 53 are walk-ons, although sheer numbers leads me to think that there may be a few. Without having explicitly asked this of the coaches, I strongly suspect that the tryout was an attempt to weed out walk-ons while giving an honest chance to any of them who has actual high-level talent to emerge from the process and make the team. But the reason why coaches love telling stories about the unknown kid who came in off the street and became a star is because those stories are so rare. The overwhelming majority of walk-ons at the D3 level are not cut out to make a varsity team, especially in a good program.

I also assume you saw our SLU alum's post about his view that 30 should be the ceiling.

No, I didn't -- I typically don't read the Liberty League board -- so thanks for pointing that out. Saint of Old is entitled to his opinion. I don't agree with it, of course. And I wonder just how informed he is of the current situation in higher education that Gotberg brought up here earlier today, or how close his connection is to any active D3 coaches.

Anyway, he can suggest a roster ceiling all that he likes. D3 is never going to impose one, and I very strongly doubt that the Liberty League will ever impose one, either.

Anyway, yes, it is new for me.  You make the good point that perhaps these kids have good enough backgrounds and healthy enough egos that they project themselves as actually playing for the varsity team, either right away or within the first couple of years.  You also make the good point that they should know coming in what the deal is with roster size and the existence of a JV team.  OK, so once they do, in fact, find out that they are somewhere in the 30-55 mix and relegated to a JV squad, does some portion quit and continue attending NP or transfer?

NPU's attrition number for men's soccer student-athletes is annually pretty high, but that's to be expected. It stands to reason that a young man who has seen the writing on the wall regarding his place on the depth chart and his prospects for advancement over the next few seasons will have second thoughts about remaining a Viking in the future. Some remain in school as general students at large, but a lot of them transfer out to less expensive schools, or to another small school with a more modest soccer program where the player in question has a better chance of getting playing time. Every program that has a large roster for its sport, regardless of the school's success, is going to have a lot of underclassmen turnover. There's a certain amount of attrition among NPU's international players as well, as I mentioned here the other day, but the reason behind that is more often homesickness than disillusionment with one's place on the depth chart.

I'll read the article, but an institution surviving based on getting tuition from large numbers of recruited athletes who may never see a varsity field seems like a strategy that I wouldn't hang my hat on.

It's not a cure-all, that's for sure, and the attrition that I mentioned is part of the reason why it isn't. But the overall idea of using athletics as a revenue driver works well enough so that D3 schools are going to continue using intercollegiate sports participation as a major element of attracting students. It's certainly not a trend that will level off or decline in the current environment in which small schools are closing left and right.